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ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 13

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
D-League Pickers are the only ones who have released their picks so far

Stanford Steve— Week 13 (0-0) Season (36-25) Best Bet (5-2) 2020 Season (32-27)
Notre Dame -19.5
Virginia -7
Rutgers +1.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 13 (0-0) Season (49-34) 2020 Season (42-39)
Miss St (-2)
Nebraska (-1)
Washington (+1)
Michigan (+8)
USC (+7)
Florida (-2)
LSU (+6.5) (Buy to 7)

Greg McElroy Week 13 (0-0) Season (20-16)

Phil Steele-- Week 13 (0-0) Season (44-44)
2020 Season (27-40)
S Miss -10x
N Texas +10x
Auburn +20
Duke/Mi Fla o 68
Fla State +3
ULM +22
Pitt -13
E Michigan +9

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 12 (0-0) Season (28-33) 2020 Season (35-37)
Dallas (-7.5) 30-20 (Loser)
Pittsburgh (+4.5) 26-24
Houston (-2.5) 30-23
Indianapolis (+3) 27-21
Denver (+2.5) 28-24

My Picks— Week 13 (0-0) Season (53-26) 2020 Season (48-31)
Oklahoma St -3
Oklahoma St ML
Notre Dame -19
Fresno St -7
Miss State ML
S D State +3
Penn St ML (125)
Baylor -14

Gameday Super Dog Pick, Season Record
Lee— 8-3-1
Desmond— 8-4
Kirk— 7-4-1
Reece— 7-5
David— 6-6
in
6-6
 
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TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
ML Dog Pickers:

Bill Trocci
— Week 13 (0-0) Season (16-20)

Army
N Carolina
Florida State

Zac Al-Khateeb Week 13 (0-0) Season (16-20)
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Kentucky

Bill Bender-- Week 13 (0-0) Season (10-26)
N Carolina
Florida St
S Carolina

Some ML Dog, Some Not:
Pamela Maldonado
Week 13 (0-0) Season (16-20)
Maryland (-120) ML Best Bet
Oregon State (+7) +225 ML
Penn St (-125) ML
California (+7) +220 ML
 
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TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
ESPN D-League Pickers:

Bill Connelly
—Season 32-26
Ohio St/Michigan u 64.5
Louisiana Tech -3.5
Illinois -6.5
Texas A&M -6.5
Notre Dame -19

Tyler Fulghum—Season 16-13

David M. Hale
—Season 18-18
Nebraska +1.5
Ohio State -8.5
Syracuse +13

Joe Fortenbaugh—Season 23-24
Utah/Colorado u 53
Michigan +8.5
Bama/Auburn o 55.5
Okla/Okla St u 50.5

Doug Kezirian—Season 22-25
Florida -2.5
Oregon State +7

The Bear— Week 13 (0-0) Season (25-39)
2020 Season (25-21)
LSU +6.5
East Carolina +14
Minnesota +7
BYU -7
Florida State +2.5
Tulsa +6.5
Miami -21.5
Iowa State -14.5
NC State -6
Nebraska +1
Bank Picks— Week 13 (0-0) (15-20)
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Wednesday last week Kezirian explained one of his losing picks by saying, “I bet numbers, not teams.”

Isn't that what many handicappers do? They have their PR and then the pointspread is what it is, so if the variance is large enough and they trust their PR then they play the number.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Phil Steele-- Week 12 (5-3) Season (44-44) 2020 Season (27-40)
Army -36x Lose
Michigan -15x Win
Ohio State -19 Win
Oregon State +3 Win
Oklahoma St -10 Win
Weber State -22x Win
Yale-8x Lose
Nevada +1 Lose

Yale was +8.5 on the 5dimes lines before other books posted. When it kicked off the line had settled to +3.

This is a repeat of his East Tennessee State line from a few weeks ago. Yale was never favored. If he gave out 8 it would've had to have been +8. -8 would've been an error and I can't believe his intention was to lay 8 points.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Isn't that what many handicappers do? They have their PR and then the pointspread is what it is, so if the variance is large enough and they trust their PR then they play the number.

Who knows what guys mean when they say they "bet numbers, not teams?" It's gibberish, the kind of meaningless rationalization you hear from losers at every sportsbook in the county. You can see the season results for the Daily Wager guys.

Another of their specialties is "the look-ahead line was +3 before the season, now it's +7, so therefore it's a good bet." That's even more demented. It's one of Bear's most cherished beliefs and is the reason he had Oregon +3 as his "bet of the year." He said the look-ahead line after Oregon beat Ohio State was Oregon -8 so therefore he was getting 11 free points and when you can get an additional 11 points you win 86% of the time.

But hey, he bet's numbers, not teams

Pure lunacy, as his results prove
 

bones

Terminally Terrified
@TahoeLegend

Just want to extend my thanks for doing this thread every year. I bet a speak for many.

Hell, your selections are/have been #1.

I usually watch McElroy on Daily Wager. I don't tail him, but when he makes a selection I look at the game. For example, last week I was interested in his N TX pick. Looked into game and then tailed him. He was spot on. I don't know exactly why, but its my opinion he is the "best" to listen to. Maybe its b/c he is not trying to be a "show man."

In any case, thank you again. Much appreciated. :cheers3:
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Who knows what guys mean when they say they "bet numbers, not teams?" It's gibberish, the kind of meaningless rationalization you hear from losers at every sportsbook in the county. You can see the season results for the Daily Wager guys.

Another of their specialties is "the look-ahead line was +3 before the season, now it's +7, so therefore it's a good bet." That's even more demented. It's one of Bear's most cherished beliefs and is the reason he had Oregon +3 as his "bet of the year." He said the look-ahead line after Oregon beat Ohio State was Oregon -8 so therefore he was getting 11 free points and when you can get an additional 11 points you win 86% of the time.

But hey, he bet's numbers, not teams

Pure lunacy, as his results prove

While I certainly agree w some the stuff you saying there a huge difference between guys who really bet numbers and clowns like bear or the other bobble heads on daily wager who just say it cause it sounds good. I don’t think many of the bobble heads actually have their own power rankings or generating numbers to go off of, there certainly are ppl I respect that do just that. For myself it just like advanced metrics in baseball, I think much better to use as a tool but not the be all end all. The thing ive always noticed most about these numbers guys Is they look at everything black and white opposed to grey which what the world is. I think it a great asset to be able to make your own PR amd have numbers you trust to go off but just like baseball there often more to the story. Having the number should be like step 1, not the whole ladder if that makes sense. Just the way I look at it, I don’t think there one way no matter how ya go about it that gets ya to the end, has to be a bunch of things combined to get me to a bet.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Crazy as it sounds Bear has become the most useful to me, when I like a game and he on same side I know to run away! That has saved me from several bad plays last few weeks!!

Ha! I do the same thing with Bear. I don't automatically go against him, but if he's on a game I am very leery about taking it. I do more research on it and unless there is compelling evidence I avoid it. In fact, I do that with all the Daily Wager guys except McElroy.

Just the opposite with Stanford Steve. If I'm on the opposite side from him I reconsider and figure I must have missed something so I go back through all my research to make sure there's some compelling reason to go against him
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
i dont see a maction thread up yet, i like to read mars and the guys who know mac better than me to help me pick out props, lol.. shit. that buffalo/ball st game def looks like a game both running backs should do well.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
I usually watch McElroy on Daily Wager. I don't tail him, but when he makes a selection I look at the game. For example, last week I was interested in his N TX pick. Looked into game and then tailed him. He was spot on. I don't know exactly why, but its my opinion he is the "best" to listen to. Maybe its b/c he is not trying to be a "show man."

I do the same. He's proved to me he's a good handicapper so I respect his picks. Plus I know he's got access to reams of stats and injury reports and latest updates produced internally by ESPN

Thanks for the compliment. I enjoy compiling the info to a certain extent, but it's a lot of work and I hope someone else will take it over next year.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
i dont see a maction thread up yet, i like to read mars and the guys who know mac better than me to help me pick out props, lol.. shit. that buffalo/ball st game def looks like a game both running backs should do well.
I don't know squat about the MAC and hadn't watched a game until Maction came along, but I wouldn't mind betting a game or total if I had any feel for it. N Illinois and C Michigan look like they might be worth a bet but that's based on slightly above zero knowledge of the MAC

I have the two bets above, but haven't done anything except look at the lines and do a little thinking. Review some scores and look at the defenses a little. See which teams still have full motivation to make it to a conference title game and which have nothing to play for

I lean Miss State, Arkansas, NC State, and Wash St in the Friday games. N Dame and a few others on Saturday

You looking at any of the above?

You must have a good feel for NC State and N Carolina and maybe the two SEC/ACC matchups, Ga/Ga Tech, Clemson/S Carolina.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
I don't know squat about the MAC and hadn't watched a game until Maction came along, but I wouldn't mind betting a game or total if I had any feel for it. N Illinois and C Michigan look like they might be worth a bet but that's based on slightly above zero knowledge of the MAC

I have the two bets above, but haven't done anything except look at the lines and do a little thinking. Review some scores and look at the defenses a little. See which teams still have full motivation to make it to a conference title game and which have nothing to play for

I lean Miss State, Arkansas, NC State, and Wash St in the Friday games. N Dame and a few others on Saturday

You looking at any of the above?

You must have a good feel for NC State and N Carolina and maybe the two SEC/ACC matchups, Ga/Ga Tech, Clemson/S Carolina.

im pretty much in same boat as you, ive ran thru lines and wrote down some initial leans/thoughts but i havnt really dug in yet as im super busy with nba props and ncaa bb right now.. unc/ncst is kinda tough for me, i think ncst the better team but i do not like their play calling at all, in this case not sure unc coaching staff is much better so i lean to ncst as i think their d is significantly better, not sure yet if i will play them.

the acc game i love most off 1st glance is pitt-13, kinda rare for me to like favs laying this much but everything i thought was crazy bout pitt laying 14.5 to uva i think the total opposite and the matchup perfect for them to boat race cuse. You have to throw on pitt to exploit the secondary and cuse qb cant freaking throw! i watched way too much of him the last few weeks and it ugly! i dont see any chance cuse gonna be able to score much on pitt with just counting on that stud back and qb runs. Defensively what cuse does well is get after the qb and defends the run, problem for them is pitt does a great job protecting pickett and while they somewhat balanced they dont count on the run game for offense. Everything about this game screams pitt by 20 to me.

dunno wtf to do with gtech/uga? not sure if there a great way to attack it as uga should just coast and be getting ready for bama, i dunno how tech scores? havnt really looked where the team totals be but id think tech be around 10? maybe under if it is actually 10, lol.. scary/clemson gonna be super low scoring my only thought at moment.


i didnt love the way BC looked last week but i think another play against wake might be in order. have a feeling BC will do much like clemson and use the offense to control the game, that really all you have to do vs wake, you can do whatever you want to their defense, the teams who get into trouble think scoring as much and often as possible the way to go but you dont wanna get into a crazy shootout with wake. Much smarter to keep their offense on the sideline so they dont have the opportunities to figure your d out. I think BC pass d can cause them some problems, wouldnt know it by watching last week but i think fsu game plan was really good as ya gotta think BC came into that game worried bout the run game and travis running the ball, not travis passing so it caught them off guard which they were able to fix at half. wont be any surprises for them here so think they will come up with some stuff to make Hartman struggle then lean on wake with the run game like clemson did.

fsu another acc team i like, not sure why they dogs to gators? noles are clearly playing for something, looks to me like they want a bowl birth which they get with a win here. On the other hand i dont think gators give a flying fuck bout going to some shitty bowl game, maybe firing mullens does something, that worries me a tad but the way i see it the team playing better more inspired fb is dogs? ill take it..

i lean wazzu also, udub another team im happy to fade. why you like messy st? i kinda lean ol piss there but i could certainly be persuaded off them..
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
fsu another acc team i like, not sure why they dogs to gators? noles are clearly playing for something, looks to me like they want a bowl birth which they get with a win here. On the other hand i dont think gators give a flying fuck bout going to some shitty bowl game, maybe firing mullens does something, that worries me a tad but the way i see it the team playing better more inspired fb is dogs? ill take it..

i lean wazzu also, udub another team im happy to fade. why you like messy st? i kinda lean ol piss there but i could certainly be persuaded off them..
Hadn't though of FSU, but now that you mention them I like them a lot. Florida looks like they have quit for the season and FSU still looks like they are getting better every week

I like Miss State because they have the much better D, are home, and their QB is getting better every week, and I always like the shit kicker school in these blood feud games. The game is always more important to the poor relatives than it is to the rich folks school. They spend 365 days a year getting looked down on.

Only reason I haven't pulled the trigger is I realize logic doesn't mean much in that series, and I've watched Ole Miss meet every challenge this year, and for a change Ole Miss has guys as tough as the country school. And even though the game is always more important to the shit kickers, the rich folk still win their share.

So it's still a lean for me for now. Maybe Bear will take Ole Miss and make it easy for me
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Hadn't though of FSU, but now that you mention them I like them a lot. Florida looks like they have quit for the season and FSU still looks like they are getting better every week

I like Miss State because they have the much better D, are home, and their QB is getting better every week, and I always like the shit kicker school in these blood feud games. The game is always more important to the poor relatives than it is to the rich folks school. They spend 365 days a year getting looked down on.

Only reason I haven't pulled the trigger is I realize logic doesn't mean much in that series, and I've watched Ole Miss meet every challenge this year, and for a change Ole Miss has guys as tough as the country school. And even though the game is always more important to the shit kickers, the rich folk still win their share.

So it's still a lean for me for now. Maybe Bear will take Ole Miss and make it easy for me

oh if bear picks ol miss then messy st a lock!! lol..
 

bones

Terminally Terrified

College Football Team ATS Trends - All Games, 2021​


TeamATS RecordCover %MOVATS +/-
Michigan9-2-081.8%20.6+8.1
Oklahoma St9-2-081.8%16.5+7.9
Syracuse8-3-072.7%0.0+2.2
Baylor8-3-072.7%15.0+8.3
Pittsburgh8-3-072.7%19.8+6.5
W Kentucky8-3-072.7%14.8+5.7
Notre Dame8-3-072.7%15.7+8.4
UNLV8-3-072.7%-10.1+5.2
North Texas8-3-072.7%-0.8+4.6
App State8-3-072.7%16.2+4.0
TX-San Ant8-3-072.7%18.1+6.2
Old Dominion8-3-072.7%-1.0+8.3
E Carolina7-3-170.0%5.7+5.8
Nevada7-3-170.0%9.5+1.0
Michigan St7-3-170.0%6.5+3.8
UAB7-3-170.0%5.6+0.5
Texas A&M7-4-063.6%14.9+1.5
Wash State7-4-063.6%2.1+2.4
Toledo7-4-063.6%11.2+1.1
Bowling Grn7-4-063.6%-11.1+1.8
Utah State7-4-063.6%4.1+4.9
N Illinois7-4-163.6%-2.8+1.8
Miss State7-4-063.6%7.1+2.4
TX El Paso7-4-063.6%2.0+3.1
Boise State7-4-063.6%12.1+5.6
Fresno St7-4-063.6%11.7+1.8
Virginia7-4-063.6%3.5+1.2
Houston7-4-063.6%18.1+5.7
Georgia7-4-063.6%32.7+8.7
Oregon St7-4-063.6%8.3+3.8
Penn State7-4-063.6%10.6+2.6
Kentucky7-4-063.6%9.5+0.2
Nebraska7-4-063.6%6.4+3.5
UCLA7-4-063.6%8.1+2.2
NC State7-4-063.6%14.3+6.8
Georgia State7-4-063.6%-4.0-0.7
Arkansas6-4-160.0%6.6+1.9
Illinois6-4-160.0%-4.9+2.8
Air Force6-4-160.0%9.9+2.3
Mississippi6-4-160.0%11.0+2.0
Ohio State6-4-160.0%28.2+7.2
California6-4-060.0%3.6+2.0
Navy6-4-060.0%-12.6+0.7
Minnesota6-4-160.0%7.6+2.6
Kansas St6-4-160.0%6.2+3.4
Louisville6-5-054.6%8.2+5.8
Wisconsin6-5-054.6%11.2+0.2
Iowa6-5-054.6%8.5+0.7
Cincinnati6-5-054.6%24.0+3.1
Alabama6-5-054.6%24.6-3.4
Rutgers6-5-054.6%-2.3+0.6
W Virginia6-5-054.6%2.20.0
Liberty6-5-054.6%12.4-3.4
Marshall6-5-054.6%15.2+2.9
Arkansas St6-5-054.6%-14.4-4.2
Central Mich6-5-054.6%5.5+3.7
S Methodist6-5-054.6%11.2+1.2
Tulsa6-5-054.6%-1.7-4.2
N Mex State6-5-054.6%-21.0+1.7
Arizona6-5-054.6%-13.5-2.4
Purdue6-5-054.6%4.3+3.0
Coastal Car6-5-054.6%21.7+0.2
Boston Col6-5-054.6%5.5-1.1
S Florida6-5-054.6%-12.2-0.4
Texas State6-5-054.6%-11.0-4.3
Charlotte5-5-150.0%-5.5-2.5
San Diego St5-5-150.0%10.4+2.2
S Carolina5-5-150.0%-0.5+2.6
Texas Tech5-5-150.0%-2.0-2.5
Army5-5-050.0%12.40.0
BYU5-6-045.5%9.7+1.0
San Jose St5-6-045.5%-4.3-7.3
Auburn5-6-045.5%8.3-0.8
GA Southern5-6-045.5%-10.0-3.9
Miami (OH)5-6-045.5%5.8+2.3
Oklahoma5-6-045.5%14.7-4.9
Florida St5-6-045.5%1.5-0.6
W Michigan5-6-145.5%2.3-2.8
E Michigan5-6-045.5%5.4+2.6
Miami (FL)5-6-045.5%2.8-1.1
Middle Tenn5-6-045.5%3.4+6.5
Utah5-6-045.5%13.6+4.1
Tulane5-6-045.5%-6.5-1.9
Vanderbilt5-6-045.5%-19.7-4.1
Colorado5-6-045.5%-7.3-1.5
Akron5-6-045.5%-18.3-0.4
Kent State5-6-045.5%-1.4-0.5
Ohio5-6-045.5%-7.5-4.7
Wake Forest5-6-045.5%12.3+2.9
LA Lafayette5-6-045.5%13.5+3.2
Connecticut5-6-045.5%-22.5-2.0
Tennessee5-6-045.5%10.2+6.0
LSU4-6-140.0%1.6-1.7
LA Tech4-6-140.0%-6.2-4.8
LA Monroe4-6-140.0%-13.3+4.8
Fla Atlantic4-6-140.0%0.5-2.1
Wyoming4-6-140.0%2.9-1.7
S Alabama4-7-036.4%-1.1-1.3
N Carolina4-7-036.4%5.6-5.9
Texas4-7-036.4%4.1-2.5
Hawaii4-7-136.4%-4.8-3.9
Central FL4-7-036.4%7.3-2.9
VA Tech4-7-036.4%1.6-2.4
Colorado St4-7-036.4%-1.2-0.3
GA Tech4-7-036.4%-6.3-3.1
Troy4-7-036.4%-1.1-4.1
Oregon4-7-036.4%8.7-3.8
Arizona St4-7-036.4%7.5-5.4
Memphis4-7-036.4%0.5-2.9
U Mass4-7-036.4%-27.6-2.6
Iowa State4-7-036.4%10.3-2.8
Duke4-7-036.4%-15.1-9.3
Ball State4-8-033.3%-2.1-2.5
USC3-7-030.0%-2.3-8.3
Maryland3-8-027.3%-7.8-8.0
S Mississippi3-8-027.3%-13.0-2.1
Kansas3-8-027.3%-22.8-0.6
Washington3-8-027.3%1.2-3.2
Missouri3-8-027.3%-3.9-5.7
Florida3-8-027.3%5.5-9.9
Clemson3-8-027.3%10.2-5.5
Northwestern3-8-027.3%-10.5-6.5
Buffalo3-8-127.3%-0.7-3.5
Stanford3-8-027.3%-10.3-5.0
Florida Intl3-8-027.3%-19.3-12.8
TX Christian2-8-120.0%-3.7-8.4
Indiana2-9-018.2%-14.1-11.5
Rice2-9-018.2%-16.4-8.3
Temple2-9-018.2%-20.9-11.5
New Mexico1-10-09.1%-15.5-6.7

Premium Picks​

NCAAF
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Glad to see you on okie lite, I dunno how else to play that game? I’m always kinda iffy on them cause I don’t trust the qb but that defense been fantastic, the way Williams struggled vs baylor makes me think he gonna have a rough time in this one.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Added Stanford Steve's Picks:

Notre Dame -19.5
Virginia -7
Rutgers +1.5

Not interested in his Rutgers pick, but I'm already on N Dame and leaning Virginia. I like Virginia a lot this week, but waiting to see what 2daBank thinks about that one.
 
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TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Glad to see you on okie lite, I dunno how else to play that game? I’m always kinda iffy on them cause I don’t trust the qb but that defense been fantastic, the way Williams struggled vs baylor makes me think he gonna have a rough time in this one.
Night game too, which I like.

If Okla State is smart--never a sure thing--they'll come out in the all-black again like they did in that night game v. TCU
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
bad news on egg bowl, i dunno if bear using them as a play but on the pod he said he liked messy st... total was all way up to 65.5 when i was at casino earlier so i grabbed the under, that feels too high to me, everyone thinks offense with these 2 but ive thought defense been messy st strength all year, ol miss d been coming on as of late and none their games have come close to sniffing the high totals being set the last month. both teams will move the ball but dont think we will see a ton of explosive plays, 34-31 is still under that number! had to play it!!!!

happy thanksgiving everyone
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
uva def the only side i would play in that game, i havnt really looked close enough to know if im betting them but i def wouldnt be on hokies, little scary laying 7 with a team who doesnt play much defense but im not sure hokies could score on air at the rate uva probably will!
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Added Bear's picks.

I leaned to several of his when the line first came out--E Carolina, Tulsa, Minnesota, Iowa State--but none of them looked good enough to bet when it came down to actually risking my money.

The one of his I do like is NC State. I just have to hope that's one of the one-third of his picks he wins. I'm a strong lean to NC State, but haven't decided whether I'll give the -6 or play it ML.

That's another ACC game, 2dabBank. What are you thinking on that one?

Bear Picks:
LSU +6.5
East Carolina +14
Minnesota +7
BYU -7
Florida State +2.5
Tulsa +6.5
Miami -21.5
Iowa State -14.5
NC State -6
Nebraska +1
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
damn, the mfer took half the card. i like several of those, really like ecu.. surely he bound to have a good day and get closer to being a coin flipper right? lol. you shoulda heard his reasoning behind Nebraska, Steve said there was some news story about a guy who died saying instead of buying flowers to bet corn over iowa so they started a go fund me page and betting it all on nebraska, bear heard story and said "well i gotta roll with that"!! that seriously why he picked corn!!
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
I would have loved iowa if Martinez was starting, that just screamed easy picking to me getting iowa basically just needing to win against a turnover prone qb. Not so high on iowa now that Nebraska starting a new qb, suppose there a decent chance iowa can turn a kid over making his 1st start id have just felt better if it was the guy I know gonna make a few awful mistakes!
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
surely he bound to have a good day and get closer to being a coin flipper right?
He is bound to have a good week at some point. It's as hard to keep losing at almost a 70% rate as it is to keep winning at that rate. Maybe this is the week for him. At least his picks look better to me than they have the last few weeks

I'm also a strong lean to S Diego State. It's +3 now and the only reason I can see for that spread is they will already know how the Fresno State game came out and if Fresno loses--which they aren't going to do--it will clinch the division title for SDS.

Other than that or some serious injury I have no idea why Boise should be favored. I've had mixed results betting on and against Boise this year (2-2) but I don't fear going against them. I'll wait till after that Fresno game tonight. Give me time to see if I'm missing some important injury, but I'm betting SDS in this one.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
I kinda like over in that game but I gotta be crazy to bet a San Diego st over! Lol. I don’t think Aztecs pass d nearly as good the numbers suggest, they have only faced 2 legitimate passing teams all year and both were able to throw on them, I hate Bachmeyer but think he be able to score some points. I was all bout fading boise earlier in the year but I do think they have played better of late and they been better on the road than the smurf turf all season. That a odd start time isn’t it? Super early for them if it 11 am my time!! Doesn’t make a lot of sense, good chance I steer clear of that one.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
That a odd start time isn’t it? Super early for them if it 11
9 am start time. You don't see many games start at 9 am. One of the coaches said the pre-game meal will be at 5:30 am. When I was in college I would have just stayed up. I still like to go to bed about 2 am, but in my college days it was 4 or 5 am

I'm sure that will have an effect, I just don't know what effect.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
So far only one public handicapper has taken either side of the premiere game of the week, the Ohio State/Michigan game.

89% of the bets, 93% of the money bet at Caesars is on Ohio State. I understand what bettors are thinking. It seems like a team as good as Michigan is this year should be worth taking with the 8x points at home, but I’m having a hard time doing it
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Bet Miss State ML (115)

I took a while but finally decided Miss State at home and with the best D is worth betting, even though they have almost no running game. Not sure why, the RB is supposed to be good and Leach has traditionally had a running game he could rely on
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I'm not sure it figures in, but Boise did play a 12:00 eastern / 10am mountain time start this year when they were at Utah State.

So they do have some experience this year with an early start time. The only San Diego State game that wasn't at night to my knowledge was Towson which was a mid afternoon eastern / early afternoon local game for Aztecs.

I am tempted to take San Diego State +3. The only time I considering taking them is when they are dogs, which is not often. Boise is playing it's best football of the season down the stretch and San Diego State is just kind of doing San Diego State things, like being outgained by UNLV and only beating Hawaii by 7. Really unimpressive bunch, but they do play in a lot of tight games. I think if they can be + turnover in this game they will win.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
So far only one public handicapper has taken either side of the premiere game of the week, the Ohio State/Michigan game.

89% of the bets, 93% of the money bet at Caesars is on Ohio State. I understand what bettors are thinking. It seems like a team as good as Michigan is this year should be worth taking with the 8x points at home, but I’m having a hard time doing it

Did ppl forget how close a one dimensional psu team w a solid defense played osu at osu? I get it, I’m not running to window to fade osu but I’m not looking to bet on them as 8 point road favs in big house either. Destroying a terrible sparty defense shouldn’t get ppl this excited. I don’t think they putting on another one these redic passing performances this week vs a mich team that should be able to make stroud uncomfortable for 1st time in weeks. I didn’t see them light up Nebraska or psu, Um d is at least that good, think I’m talking myself into Michigan, just hoping it gets bet up higher (10 be awesome! Lol).
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
9 am start time. You don't see many games start at 9 am. One of the coaches said the pre-game meal will be at 5:30 am. When I was in college I would have just stayed up. I still like to go to bed about 2 am, but in my college days it was 4 or 5 am

I'm sure that will have an effect, I just don't know what effect.
I've never seen a 9am start with a game in California. Must have something to do with broadening their recruiting geographics.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Did ppl forget how close a one dimensional psu team w a solid defense played osu at osu? I get it, I’m not running to window to fade osu but I’m not looking to bet on them as 8 point road favs in big house either. Destroying a terrible sparty defense shouldn’t get ppl this excited. I don’t think they putting on another one these redic passing performances this week vs a mich team that should be able to make stroud uncomfortable for 1st time in weeks. I didn’t see them light up Nebraska or psu, Um d is at least that good, think I’m talking myself into Michigan, just hoping it gets bet up higher (10 be awesome! Lol).
Ha! I know the feeling. I did it last night on Miss State and I keep thinking the same things you do about Michigan in this game.

No doubt which team and coaching staff will be the most motivated. The Michigan guys--the entire state of Michigan for that matter--must be sick and tired of getting their butts kicked. I have a couple of Michigan alums who are good friends and they have become shell shocked over the years and years of butt kickings

I don't understand why the line doesn't move. Bookmakers don't run their business like they used to. The old guys in fedoras and overcoats wouldn't understand how it's possible to make a profit when you allow more than 90% of the money to be bet on one side and still not movie the line
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
i might actually get the boise/sdst over, lol.. wasnt sure bout that, just felt like Bachmeier be able to move ball but didnt trust boise. i see aztecs came on super strong..

went ahead and took a stab at the 1st half under 33 in mizzou/arky game, then i played ecu+14 and wazzu later. think that all i have for today.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Blazin 5

Dallas (-7.5) 30-20 (Loser)
Pittsburgh (+4.5) 26-24
Houston (-2.5) 30-23
Indianapolis (+3) 27-21
Denver (+2.5) 28-24

i like steelers and colts, houston be only side i play but dunno if i can actually lay points with them? they prob are the better team with tyrod at qb. i think i would need at least a fg to consider donks, preferably 3.5! i have to look closer at that one tho, the way chargers let everyone run on them it could be another tough game for them, ill prob be looking at rb props even tho it tougher when a team splits the work between 2 backs. rb props been money vs chargers and their "let teams run the ball as we play light box" philosophy!!
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Bet Penn State ML (125)

Decided to pass on the NC State/N Carolina game. I like the NC St defense a lot, but I've won three times betting against N Carolina this year and in every one of those games they looked better than I thought they were and they kept fighting even after they were behind. They made me nervous every time.
 

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