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ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 12

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Bad results for almost all pickers last week.

Only picks in so far are from Joe Fortenbaugh. Bear made no official picks yet, but said he would bet Maryland , UCLA. Baylor, Georgia, Michigan if he bet those games

ESPN Pickers:
Stanford Steve— (1-2) (24-20) 2020-21 Total (71-56) Best Bet (6-5)

Fresno State -22x
Army -10
Cal -5
Clemson -19 Best Bet
Utah State -1
UMass/aTm u 47x

Scott Van Pelt—(4-3) (48-42) 2020-21 Total (99-77)
Army -10
Baylor +2x
Illinois +18
Rice +13
W. Virg +7x
Ga St +9
WKy +5x
Ga So +4x
So Car +21x
Ark +2x
UCLA +2x

The Bear—(1-2) (32-20) 2020-21 Total (61-65) Bank Picks—(1-1-1) (14-15)
UCLA +2x
Baylor +2x
UAB +14x
Cal -5
NC St/Louisville u 45

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
David——N Texas lose (8-3) 2021 Season 8-6
Kirk——Syracuse lose (6-5) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Desmond—Cal lose (6-5) 2021 Season 9-5
Reece——Louisville lose (5-6) 2021 Season 9-5
Lee— Hawaii win (4-7) 2021 Season 10-3-1

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(2-5) (60-41)

Baylor +2x
Arizona St +8
Liberty -9x
SMU +3x lose
Oklahoma -7
Army -10
Iowa State -3x
Pitt -7x

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— (1-4) (224-22) 2020-21 Total (66-77)
Houston +3 28-24
Las Vegas +3 24-17
Dallas -1x 30-27
Cincinnati -3x 28-23
LA Charger +5 30-31

Phil Steele—(3-3) (34-28) 2020-21 Total (78-87)
N Dame -20x
Penn State -19
Texas -9
Arizona +4
E Carolina -5x
Utah State p

Pamela Maldonado—(1-3) (27-26) 2021 (17-23)
Washington -31
Hawaii +11½
Middle Tennessee +6
Ala.-Birmingham +15
Florida State -24

My Picks—(2-2) (35-27) 2020-21 Total (108-65)
(Parlays—(2-0) (14-5) (
8 wins were teasers)
Teaser—N Carolina +13xwin/ second team to be named
Utah +3
Iowa +2x
TCU -2x
Oklahoma St +7x
Kansas +9x
Teaser-BC/N Dame o 36x/ Oklahoma State +13x
Teaser-North Carolina +13x win/Clemson -12x

ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—(1-2) (17-14) 2021 (17-15)

Tennessee -22
Ohio St/Maryland o 63x
Washington -31

Greg McElroy—(0-3) (20-13)
UCLA +2x
Iowa +2x
Baylor +2x

Joe Fortenbaugh—(1-2) (14-18) 2021 (25-33)
Maryland +27x
Washington State -4
UMass/aTm u 47x

Doug Kezirian—(3-0) (16-20) 2021 (22-28)
Mich State -10
BC/N Dame o 43
UNLV -6x fh

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(3-0) (14-19) 2021 (9-30)

Iowa
Oklahoma St
Northwestern

Mike DeCourcy—(1-2) (12-24) 2021 (15-24)
Oklahoma St
Kansas
Utah

Zac Al-Khateeb—(3-0) (7-26) 2021 (17-23)

UConn
Kansas
Oklahoma St

Bill Trocci—(2-1) (8-25) 2021 (16-23)

Utah
Kansas
UConn
 
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bones

We Must Protect Our Democracy

I won't be able to do usual write ups b/c too busy yesterday/today - will try to get around to it Friday.

Listened yesterday to analysis of:

Illinois @ Michigan: The highlight of what I recall - Powers has increased his Power Ranking on Illinois 10.5 points since start of season. But, after string of losses that ranking is down from his prior power increase of 15 points. Powers had them ranked in Top 15 now he ranks them 26th. Both Powers and Payne have their line at Michigan -15.5 and think with the -18.5 (my line is now 18) and total at 41 (mine now 40.5) there may be some value in Illini - total so low and spread this high'; the obvious key being can Illini defense keep Michigan total to 28 or less? The expected weather Ann Arbor, MI Weekend Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com may play a role with winds gusting to 20 mph and snow possible (this forecast does not show snow until evening). In any case, they thought weather would hurt MI passing and dictate run game for wolverines, where Illini D strength may help keep the game within the number. They did not directly address Illini O, but obviously thought the best they could do is 10 pts. Slow paced game and total down from open around 44.5/45. I think Powers bet the under at the open.

Had a few moments early this morning

Iowa @ Minny: Lowest total in FBS in 20 years. Minneapolis, MN Weekend Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com High of 18, snow and winds. Two top 7 defenses and two bottom 70 offenses. Some concerns on Iowa offense line play. Minny D may be overrated, but Iowa not a team that can test it. Made a big deal on Iowa strength and conditioning coach is gone and may be reason for Iowa's lack of line play?

SJState @UtahSt: SJST 0-4 ATS last 4. Brad thinks Utah State +2.5 is the bet ( I am showing +1.5 now) and reason that game is discussed. Spartans cannot stop the run and has no ability to score. Powers has downgraded Spartans as much as any team. UtahSt still has Bowl chance. Weather an issue Logan, UT Weekend Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com with 16 degrees expected temp at k.o. "Value" on UtahState. Boise is next up for UtahSt and this is game to get to Bowl. Payne has little comment except to say Brad is "on this podcast b/c he's in top .01% of college bettors." Payne indicates this is 1 of Brad's top 3 for the weekend per texts they have shared.

USC @ UCLA: Powers: USC defense "sucks" (my word) but that is the point made. USC running back - Dye - is gone for the season. UCLA upgraded slightly upgraded for the season, but their defense is not good. UCLA had 5 turnovers last week's loss to AZ. AZ looked like the better team last week. USC avg 4.5 points per drive vs Colorado and 7 yds per play vs. all PAC-12 opponents. Payne: Dye is important to USC O (as opposed to usual running backs). USC O line most important for this game and shud be good against UCLA D line - so Payne thinks USC's other running backs shud do fine. "Everything slants so much in favor of both Offenses." Payne says "there has been talk of USC holding things back on O before this game." Payne is doubtful. Essentially thinks game comes down to Caleb, the running game and their offense - "Obviously, USC has large match-up advantages [O vs D]." Total opened at 82 and Powers bet Under, now total is mid 70s. Powers says turf at Rose Bowl is bad and if it stays the same "I wud not want to be holding an Over mid-70s ticket in my pocket." DTR evidently giving USC bulletin board material, saying "we are going to do same as last year to them" when they hung 62. Then, Payne answers "Everywhere" when asked by Fuhrman "Where is UCLA's path to success?" Payne says USC is bad stopping the run and "This is the largest mismatch on paper of the entire weekend." USC D lacks depth and USC linebackers (Leigh & Gentry) may be hurt.

Utah @ Oregon: Utah 3-7 ATS. Powers: Utah line of scrimmage been a problem on D line in Utah's biggest games. Utah still in top 25 ranked O & D. Insider: Bo Nix health is biggest factor to Oregon offense in this game. Utah been a little off this year, particular D line. Oregon dependent on its offense and cannot win w/o their offense. Ducks could not stop Penix last week and did it with non hurry on O. Utah will find success running. Oregon outside top 100 in EPA per rush allowed. "For Utah to pull this off does Utah have the weapons to attack Oregon 2dary?" Oregon is barley in top 100 EPS per pass...Oregon provides plenty of cushion in pass defense. Line insinuates Bo Nix plays, but not clear. If he does the line may rise. Key contributors along O line may be nicked up...check their status. Oregon practices closed this week.

TCU @ Baylor: TCU playing 9th straight week - Dykes mentioned in his press conference. Baylor blown out last week, What does it say? Powers: "very uncharacteristic under Aranda...explains some Baylor's losses away...did not anticipate how bad Baylor/Shapen played." Powers down on Shapen. Baylor 9-3 ATS at home since 2021. Baylor 11-4 ATS as a dog last 15 times catching pts. In 7 Baylor games this year the favorite is 1-6 (?). Insider still sounds skeptical of TCU and Insider says "If a good team played their schedule they wud have 6.8 wins, they have caught breaks this year." Ewers was "horrific" last week. "The market is telling you something, Baylor is taking pro money." Aranda apologized to Baylor for last week's performance. Then Insider trashes TCU run Defense. Baylor has played air raid ffense well this year, see TxTech game. "We all thought Texas would put end to TCU run, and this may be the spot where it ends." Listen if you wish - seems they mock TCU. Fuhrman says "Its Baylor or pass."

OkSt @ OU: Bedlam. OU has second worst cover margin this season at -81. OKSt is 7-2 ATS in last 9 road games vs Big-12 opponents but 2-2 this year and have not covered w/o Spencer Sanders. Sanders said he's starting this week - Gundy had not said at time of podcast. (I found this article seemingly confirming Sanders start Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy backs Spencer Sanders' choice to start Bedlam). Payne starts out by saying "number does seem a little high" (currently it is OU -7/-7.5, opened at -5.5). "Seen nothing but early OU support, and they are just hanging the carrot at current -7/-7.5.....and that early move is not based on fact that OKSt has only outgained 3 of 10 opponents this season, its b/c OU has played the far tougher schedule....Biggest match-up discrepancy favors the Sooners...advantage in the run game...Pokes not been able to stop the run...Gabriel does not do well with pressure but Pokes do not get pressure on QB....But my feeling is with number where it is there could be a battle in the market."

Pick of week (they are around .500 after a slow start and losing Longhorns last week) is Utah State.

Me: I see line has moved to make them a -1 favorite from a 2/1.5 dog. But, that may not preclude a wager. The podcast really fades San Jose State
 
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bones

We Must Protect Our Democracy

We had a fantastic run this past weekend, posting a 10-3 record to run our season record back to hailing distance of positivity. We’re now 61-64 on the season so I appreciate all of you who stuck with me as we are battling our way back to positivity.

UMass +32.5 @ A&M
Here’s the truth, this Texas A&M team shouldn’t be favored by 32.5 points over air.

VaTech +10.5 @ Liberty
I think they keep it to a single digit margin at Liberty.

Florida at Vanderbilt, the over 57.5
The Commodores have scored 27 and 24 the past two weeks. I feel like they post 24 against Florida and the Gators go for 38.

Wisconsin at Nebraska +13.5
The Cornhuskers haven’t been a disaster at home this year and I feel like it’s flat out disrespectful to make Wisconsin, which doesn’t have an explosive offense at all, a nearly two touchdown road favorite

Illinois +18 at Michigan
this feels like the perfect trap game scenario for Michigan as they look ahead for the big game against Ohio State next weekend.

TCU -2.5 at Baylor
How many games does TCU have to win before Vegas changes its mind? I’m staying on the Horned Frogs train and taking them to win by a field goal or more at Baylor.

Georgia at Kentucky +22.5
And now the buying opportunity on Kentucky is just too substantial

Penn State -19.5 at Rutgers
the Nittany Lions are clearly the third best team in the Big Ten this season

Iowa at Minnesota, the over 32.5
I have never seen a number this low in major college football. And I just refuse to believe we can’t get over this number. So let’s hop on the over train, boys and girls.

Georgia Tech +21.5 at North Carolina
Now, trust me, I know Georgia Tech is not very good, but UNC has beaten some pretty bad ACC teams by tiny margin

Ole Miss at Arkansas +2.5
Ole Miss hasn’t been very good on the road of late this season. Losing big at LSU, narrowly escaping Texas A&M, and now headed to Arkansas.

USC at UCLA +2.5 and the over 75.5
The Bruins helped torpedo the Pac 12’s playoff chances by losing at Arizona late last Saturday night.
Now they are back home with the Trojans coming to town and I think they end the Pac 12’s playoff dreams with an outright win as a couple of point underdog in the Rose Bowl.
 

bones

We Must Protect Our Democracy
My initial selections:
Wake -10
PennSt -18.5 WIN
UCLA ML
Iowa/Minn Over 31.5 LOSE

Correction: when going over my bets, I see I actually got the Iowa/Minn Over at 31
 
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TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Posted picks from Stanford Steve. He lost laying points with Fresno State on the road,but must be a true believer because he's doing it again this week.
Fresno State -22x
Army -10
Cal -5
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Posted picks from Bear. He and Steve have one pick on common. Both are laying 5 with Cal at home against Stanford. This game is never listed among the big rivalries, but it's one of the most unpredictable rivalries in college football
UCLA +2x
Baylor +2x
UAB +14x
Cal -5
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
So I very rarely bet big favorites. I did bet USC the last two weeks including against Cal, pushed 1H due to missed xpt and lost full game as USC only won by 6 laying 21. Wouldn't you know, either Cal played well or USC didn't play well. After having shown some resiliency, I bet on Cal to deliver a similar performance vs Oregon State (who has a better D than USC) and Cal just gets dominated - and I mean dominated. It was 21-7 Beavs at HT, but Cal's only score was on D and the Cal O had 48 Total Yards in the 1H!

Stanford's best games were played a month ago and they have been crushed the past 3 games by a combined score of 34-132!

Both teams are bad. Both teams have some decent offensive skill and a servicable QB, but both OLs are poor as I'm sure their schemes. Cal just fired their OC. Both Ds are bad as well, which we have known Stanford isn't a good D team for a couple years now, but it is surprising that Cal now is also showing signs of occasional weakness on that side of the ball given Wilcox background.

Cal generally would be the more capable team offensively and maybe defensively, but laying points with them? I mean Cal lost to Colorado.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Add in the fact this has been one of the most unpredictable rivalries over the last few decades.

I look at this game and all I see is it's suicide to rely on either of these teams.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Anyone betting either of these games tonight? I'm looking forward to watching SMU/Tulane but can't figure out a way to win any money on it
 
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2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
This not a easy card at 1st glance, feel like I’m gonna end up with a rather small card.

Lean bruins but I might like the over more.

Does texas have the heart to go to ku and cover a 9 point spread? I kinda like ku there.

It would be baylor or nothing for me but i suck w them and I’m kinda hoping tcu wins out till the big-12 championship and k-st gets another crack at them w a healthy qb, I’d love k-st in that spot, until then it would be more about fading tcu cause I don’t trust either their last 2 opponents. Gotta tell myself just cause I don’t think tcu is a top 4 (or even a top 10 team) doesn’t mean they gonna lose to one these big12 teams who not even top 20!! If anything you probably getting value with tcu, sure feels like they being disrespected so I wouldn’t blame anyone for backing them, this does feel like a tough spot but is baylor any good really?
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I dunno how to mess with the ncst/ville game having no idea what Cunningham status is? Even if they say he playing after watching him last week how can you trust he close to himself? They opened that total way high but it has sense been bet down, I think I’d still lean under 45, especially if Cunningham out but ville -4 is a awful strong line id think suggesting he gonna try to play: Not sure how ncst scores many points? Kinda doubt they get to 20. Not sure where to put ville not knowing who the qb gonna be, with a healthy cunningham still don’t think it be a real high output, 20 points could def win this game.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I might try to talk myself into zona as home dogs, love what Jed Fisch doing there and after upsetting bruins all a sudden they have a clear path to a bowl game, win here then knock off asu next week. I have to do some work cause I’m not super familiar with wazzu this year but on surface they don’t look all that scary, they have knocked off the dregs of the pac12 and lost to the good, might not be a crazy ask for wildcats to pull this out. I’m sure a bowl game would mean a lot to this team so I don’t expect them to letdown after the big upset of ucla. One thing for sure, they can put points on the board so that gives them a chance.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Pac12 is by far the most interesting conf this week. Sec has their typical little sisters of the poor week, big10 matchups are weak (although gotta love a game with a 32 total! Lol), big12 is ok I guess, really a shame that ucla and ducks did what good pac12 teams always do last week but still good games to see who gonna play for the pac12 crown. Utah/ducks is tough, I’d lean utes except for the fact ducks just lost at home for 1st time in 23 games and now they gonna lose 2 in a row? That kinda tough to believe.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I might try to talk myself into zona as home dogs, love what Jed Fisch doing there and after upsetting bruins all a sudden they have a clear path to a bowl game, win here then knock off asu next week. I have to do some work cause I’m not super familiar with wazzu this year but on surface they don’t look all that scary, they have knocked off the dregs of the pac12 and lost to the good, might not be a crazy ask for wildcats to pull this out. I’m sure a bowl game would mean a lot to this team so I don’t expect them to letdown after the big upset of ucla. One thing for sure, they can put points on the board so that gives them a chance.

I definitely do not think there will be a let down for Zona. Not sure what the factor of de Laura vs old team is. Arizona has the better offense. Washington State has the better D. Cameron Ward has just be ok, not playing to the level I think a lot thought he would or could, but he also isn't bad. They did get their #1 RB back, but have not gotten Bell back at WR yet. Should be a really great game. Zona can certainly win it. I can understand the road chalk for Wazzou based on resumes of this season, but I really don't see them as a net-net bottom line much better than Arizona. They are better in certain ways and Arizona is also better in certain ways.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I definitely do not think there will be a let down for Zona. Not sure what the factor of de Laura vs old team is. Arizona has the better offense. Washington State has the better D. Cameron Ward has just be ok, not playing to the level I think a lot thought he would or could, but he also isn't bad. They did get their #1 RB back, but have not gotten Bell back at WR yet. Should be a really great game. Zona can certainly win it. I can understand the road chalk for Wazzou based on resumes of this season, but I really don't see them as a net-net bottom line much better than Arizona. They are better in certain ways and Arizona is also better in certain ways.

Yea I don’t see them as drastically different overall. I didn’t think of the De Laura old team aspect, honestly I forget this where he came from lol, this the same staff from when he was there? I usually tend to give a little edge to the former team who knows a qbs strengths and weaknesses, I think that def worth something.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Yea I don’t see them as drastically different overall. I didn’t think of the De Laura old team aspect, honestly I forget this where he came from lol, this the same staff from when he was there? I usually tend to give a little edge to the former team who knows a qbs strengths and weaknesses, I think that def worth something.

It is a new OC. The current Wazzou OC came from Incarnate Word where QB Ward was last year. It was a package deal and was supposed to be more productive than it has been. Some of the position coaches are the same, some of them are different. Same with the D, pretty sure they have a new DC although the current HC who was the interim HC last year and prior was the old DC and some of the position coaches on D are new as well. Not sure who the acting DC was last year, he may've moved on or been moved back to a position coach.

Washington made a big deal about de Laura coming back to Seattle after he planted a Wazzou flag midfield after last year's apple cup. That kind of stuff is way overrated, Washington "only" won by 10 and de Laura passed for 400 and 4 TDs. Like Washington was going to shut him down or something. So I don't know what to make of prior team motivation stuff. I do think it makes sure he is pretty up for the game at least. You don't want to go out there and have a bad game vs your old team and make them think "yeah we're better off without him" - no you want them to think "man de Laura can still ball". I'll just use that as the anti-let down angle and leave it at that.

Washington State's D is good enough to win them the game. But Zona's O is good enough to win them the game. Just about which one does it. I don't think this will be a game were the Wash St O or the Arizona D wins the game although you'd give Wash St O the edge vs what is typically a bad Zona D. Just think it gets decided the other way, W St D vs Zona O.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
It is a new OC. The current Wazzou OC came from Incarnate Word where QB Ward was last year. It was a package deal and was supposed to be more productive than it has been. Some of the position coaches are the same, some of them are different. Same with the D, pretty sure they have a new DC although the current HC who was the interim HC last year and prior was the old DC and some of the position coaches on D are new as well. Not sure who the acting DC was last year, he may've moved on or been moved back to a position coach.

Washington made a big deal about de Laura coming back to Seattle after he planted a Wazzou flag midfield after last year's apple cup. That kind of stuff is way overrated, Washington "only" won by 10 and de Laura passed for 400 and 4 TDs. Like Washington was going to shut him down or something. So I don't know what to make of prior team motivation stuff. I do think it makes sure he is pretty up for the game at least. You don't want to go out there and have a bad game vs your old team and make them think "yeah we're better off without him" - no you want them to think "man de Laura can still ball". I'll just use that as the anti-let down angle and leave it at that.

Washington State's D is good enough to win them the game. But Zona's O is good enough to win them the game. Just about which one does it. I don't think this will be a game were the Wash St O or the Arizona D wins the game although you'd give Wash St O the edge vs what is typically a bad Zona D. Just think it gets decided the other way, W St D vs Zona O.

Oh yea it not about motivation for me, why I asked which coaches were same. The Washington thing nothing I woulda thought anything about/. This about just familiarity with a player, I often think former teams know a player well enough to do certain things to take away what makes him successful. They should know things ppl don’t just spot on film after working w a guy for a long period of time.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Oh yea it not about motivation for me, why I asked which coaches were same. The Washington thing nothing I woulda thought anything about/. This about just familiarity with a player, I often think former teams know a player well enough to do certain things to take away what makes him successful. They should know things ppl don’t just spot on film after working w a guy for a long period of time.

It is a good theory. Do we have much of a track record of performance on it.

Thinking about transfer QBs who faced old team...

Peasley at Wyoming vs Utah State
Cordeiro at San Jose vs Hawaii (haven't played yet)

who else, thinking back to the Iowa QB that transfered to Michigan...the Indiana QB that transferred to Northwestern

I do like the angle of thinking prior staff knows weaknesses or how to make a QB make mistakes, but also wondering does the theory actually play out that way?
 

bones

We Must Protect Our Democracy
My initial selections:
Wake -10
PennSt -18.5
UCLA ML
Iowa/Minn Over 31.5

Correction: when going over my bets, I see I actually got the Iowa/Minn Over at 31
ADD; UNDER 60 Utah/Oregon

Done. After last week's debacle, quite gun-shy. I really don't like this card and my favorite wager is the biggest line, PennState.

Only other game I want to take is UTSA -13.5 now vs Rice. But, rain chances 90% Houston, TX 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Talking bout duke/pitt in discussion thread I feel fairly good bout under 49.5. Im incredibly confident pitt front 7 is gonna be a nightmare for duke offense. Just don’t think Riley Leonard game with lot of running and short passes a good matchup against this d, I often say to beat pitt you gotta be able to protect and sling it down the field cause their d plays incredibly aggressive w the corners out on a island. You can see it most the year, the teams capable of throwing it down the field score points on them, the teams who don’t struggle as it incredibly difficult to drive the entire field against them. Duke game is to spread you out to find run lanes and mostly a dink and dunk passing game, they don’t have enough speed for me to see any chance this works against pitt. I don’t think they can push it down the field successfully thru the air, You have to really search to find a duke pass play that has went for more than 30 yards against any acc opponent, maybe they have 1 or 2, very rare. If/when duke does score which I don’t think be often you gotta think they will eat a lot of clock in the process.

It the other side the ball im not as sure about, looking at duke I actually think Slovis (who I don’t like) could have success vs them. The problem is I think pitt would need to come out and throw some on early downs and more often than they would like. Can we trust pitt to do that? Probably not. It way more likely they continually bang their rb into the Los against what been a surprisingly good duke run d. They do that and only lean on Slovis in 3rd and long type spots duke will blitz and he will probably suck! So the real question becomes is duke run d as good as their lofty numbers? Im not sure, I don’t think they have faced any team that lined up and runs the way pitt is going to or a running back as talented as Abanikanda so it makes this question really tough. I’d say that will be the deciding factor on whether pitt covers or not. Shouldn’t decide the total tho, if pitt runs it well that fine, they will score points but not like it be fast drives, it will be time consuming and should limit the number of possessions for both teams. If they can’t run it then as I said it will have Slovis in 3rd and long which not gonna lead to him being successful, the downside it would lead to more punts and possibly turnovers but in that scenario they gonna struggle to put up tds.

I don’t see much chance this game gets played above the low to mid 20s, without a turnover or special teams play I don’t think duke can get to 20. 44 feels a lot closer to the righty number for me. The only avenue I see to this game going over would be duke getting out fast and a couple score lead, think it would take some crazy plays for that to happen. Outside of that I just don’t see it. Yes duke games mostly have gone way over this but look at who they have played, they have managed to avoid all the best d’s in the acc. Think there def value here thanks to some duke scores but the styles here really set up for a lack of scoring imo. I can’t believe this opened at 55! Jfc they got that wrong, I still think there value where it sits now.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Looking closer at wazzu/zona I’d say it takes a bit a leap of faith thinking wildcats are gonna play their asses off to make a bowl cause numbers wise they don’t stack up very favorably. Zona d is so bad you gotta assume wazzu will be able to move the ball pretty easily. Can the zona offense keep up? Does the over correlate with them? It really tough to see them holding wazzu to less than 30, before ucla last week every pac12 team other than Colorado had scored 40+! Cal scored 49, Utah scored 45, the really good pac12 offenses (usc, ducks, udub) were all in the 40s. Zona gonna have to score at least 27 to have any hope of covering, most likely they will need to get 31+ to be in it. Utes and ducks been the only 2 pac12 teams to hold them under 31, wazzu d better than those squads they hung 30s on. Doesn’t mean they can’t just that it wazzu has only allowed 30+ twice all year, 30 to usc and ducks scored 44. Arizona offense is really good but are they on that level? Probably not.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
It is a good theory. Do we have much of a track record of performance on it.

Thinking about transfer QBs who faced old team...

Peasley at Wyoming vs Utah State
Cordeiro at San Jose vs Hawaii (haven't played yet)

who else, thinking back to the Iowa QB that transfered to Michigan...the Indiana QB that transferred to Northwestern

I do like the angle of thinking prior staff knows weaknesses or how to make a QB make mistakes, but also wondering does the theory actually play out that way?

I don’t know, my memory is garbage, think I recall a coach leaving then playing former qb once or twice, think I’ve tested it few times in nfl w some success. Feel like I wouldn’t keep bringing it up if it has never proven to mean something! I’m usually quick to bail on theories if I find them to not pay off, I make up enough of them it easy to move off ones that don’t pan out. Lol.

I assume fiisch offense is a lot different than what they were asking him to run at wazzu so might not mean a ton here. More I look at this game less I like zona, to play them it would take a leap of faith that it just so important to them they play over their heads, especially on d: the d been so terrible situationally on 3rd downs or in red zone they don’t give me much to hang my hat on where I can say “this is where I think they have a edge”, obviously their offense is better but they so bad defensively you gotta give wazzu offense a bump.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Posted Adam Kramer picks. He's got the best record of any of them so far
Baylor +2x
Arizona St +8
Liberty -9x
SMU +3x lose
Oklahoma -7
Army -10
Iowa State -3x
Pitt -7x
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Posted Adam Kramer picks. He's got the best record of any of them so far
Baylor +2x
Arizona St +8
Liberty -9x
SMU +3x lose
Oklahoma -7
Army -10
Iowa State -3x
Pitt -7x

Man, I dunno how anyone could lay -7 w Sooners? I know okie lite qb situation all messed up, that only reason I’m not on cowboys, it not enough to make me play Sooners tho.

Pretty sure I’d play pitt if I had to but I like the under, maybe duke tt under, and Leonard rush yards under more than laying the td. I just don’t know if Abanikanda will go off or not? Like I said above it really tough to measure duke run d vs him cause they havnt faced a rushing attack close to how pitt will line up and try to run it. Think that the key, if duke can’t slow down pitt run game I like pitt by a couple scores, if duke able to hold Abanikanda down and keep Slovis throwing out of 3rd and long it could be a rock fight game that ends up 17-13 or some crap.

That army line makes no damn sense. I suppose a huge letdown spot for ucon after doing the unthinkable and making it to a bowl game but they just gonna lay down here? Army is 10 points better? I don’t think so. La Monroe the only d1 team army has beaten all year and they gonna beat a bowl team by double digits? Is ucon sitting all their players? I don’t understand that at all any other way.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Looks like im prop hunting this week to have a decent size card. Got a handful wrote down and like usual there still a bunch not out yet.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I don’t know, my memory is garbage, think I recall a coach leaving then playing former qb once or twice, think I’ve tested it few times in nfl w some success. Feel like I wouldn’t keep bringing it up if it has never proven to mean something! I’m usually quick to bail on theories if I find them to not pay off, I make up enough of them it easy to move off ones that don’t pan out. Lol.

I assume fiisch offense is a lot different than what they were asking him to run at wazzu so might not mean a ton here. More I look at this game less I like zona, to play them it would take a leap of faith that it just so important to them they play over their heads, especially on d: the d been so terrible situationally on 3rd downs or in red zone they don’t give me much to hang my hat on where I can say “this is where I think they have a edge”, obviously their offense is better but they so bad defensively you gotta give wazzu offense a bump.

I forgot about coaches leaving facing old team, not just QB facing old school.

It could be that a QB like de Laura knows the guys on that D and what they are or are not good at and tendencies as well.

Here are a few coaches that faced former teams from last year to this year. I started doing this, then wish I hadn't because it gave me a headache, but some interesting results and some changes I wasn't aware of from games I previsouly bet (such as the UNLV DC formerly of Cal). Bold are wins for the coaches new team, italic is a won, but no cover, or a loss, but cover.

A&M DC Durkin vs Ole Miss (Ole Miss won 31-28 -2)
Rutgers DC vs Minnesota (Minn won 31-0 -14)
BC OC vs Notre Dame (TE coach, this week)
Syracuse OC vs Virginia (Cuse won 22-20 -9.5) - won no cover
Baylor OC vs BYU (2021 Baylor won 38-24, 2022 BYU won 26-20)
Texas "analyst" Gary Paterson vs TCU (Head Coach, TCU won 17-10 +7)
TCU HC vs SMU (TCU won 42-34 -2.5)
TCU OC vs SMU (TCU won 42-34 -2.5)

TT HC vs Baylor (TE coach, next week)
Arizona DC vs UCLA (DL coach, Zona won 34-28 +19.5)
Colorado OC vs Minn (Minn won 49-7)
Colorado St HC vs Nevada (CSU won 17-14 +3.5)
Colorado St OC vs Nevada (CSU won 17-14 +3.5)

*CSU didn't score an offensive TD in their win*
UNLV DC vs Cal (OLB coach, UNLV lost 14-20 +12.5) - lost but covered
Hawaii HC vs Nevada (TE/WR coach, Hawaii won 31-14 +6.5)
Troy DC vs Army (Troy won 10-9 -9) - won no cover
Southern Miss OC vs Liberty (OL coach, Liberty won 29-27 -3.5 OT) - lost but covered

La Tech DC vs SFA (La Tech won 52-17 -6.5)
Ohio DC vs Miami Oh (Ohio won 37-21 -2.5)
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I like that kind of stuff though

Even tho texas lost I’d say Patterson knowing Duggan and lot the tcu players probably helped, that was far and away tcu lowest point total of the season and Duggan worst game.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I figured win or lose last week it would be a good week to go against TCU because the Texas game was always a big one for Frogs. Baylor has me second guessing now.

But actually, might like Kansas catching Horns off that TCU loss. It's been a while since Jayhawks pulled an upset (10/1) and Texas can be upset we know well. Sure revenge for Texas. Think this means a lot for KU as well.
 

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
cuse feels like they've quit and been case several years now back half of season they lay down, similar to stanford. .....wake been bad but think it's a good matchup

agree uconn - army line doesn't make sense........okie state with sanders back is a different team, all they did is cover with him
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I figured win or lose last week it would be a good week to go against TCU because the Texas game was always a big one for Frogs. Baylor has me second guessing now.

Two different angles to consider.

The last 4 times TCU beat Texas, they lost the following week.

2020 beat Texas as +10.5 dog, 2019 beat Texas as +1 dog, 2017 beat Texas as -7 favorite, 2016 beat Texas as +3 dog - they followed each of those games up with losses, 2020 -9 at K St lost by 7, 2019 +3 at Ok St lost by 7, 2017 +6.5 at Ok lost by 18, 2016 -3.5 lost vs K St by 24

The counter to this angle is 2014 & 2015 when TCU finished 12-1 and 11-2, in those years when they beat Texas (they were favored both times by 6.5 and 14.5) in these years they followed up the Texas wins with a win the following week as well.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Man, I dunno how anyone could lay -7 w Sooners? I know okie lite qb situation all messed up, that only reason I’m not on cowboys, it not enough to make me play Sooners tho.

Pretty sure I’d play pitt if I had to but I like the under, maybe duke tt under, and Leonard rush yards under more than laying the td. I just don’t know if Abanikanda will go off or not? Like I said above it really tough to measure duke run d vs him cause they havnt faced a rushing attack close to how pitt will line up and try to run it. Think that the key, if duke can’t slow down pitt run game I like pitt by a couple scores, if duke able to hold Abanikanda down and keep Slovis throwing out of 3rd and long it could be a rock fight game that ends up 17-13 or some crap.

That army line makes no damn sense. I suppose a huge letdown spot for ucon after doing the unthinkable and making it to a bowl game but they just gonna lay down here? Army is 10 points better? I don’t think so. La Monroe the only d1 team army has beaten all year and they gonna beat a bowl team by double digits? Is ucon sitting all their players? I don’t understand that at all any other way.
Same here. I can't see any way OU should be laying that many points. If I play this one it will be Okla State.

I don't see a lot to inspire me this week, but I just got down to work today so maybe I'll find some great bet waiting on me
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Posted Pam Maldonado's picks. Pam is struggling this year
Washington -31
Hawaii +11½
Middle Tennessee +6
Ala.-Birmingham +15
Florida State -24
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Stanford Steve and Bear made some additional picks on Daily Wager today. Their complete lists:
Steve
Fresno State -22x
Army -10
Cal -5
Clemson -19 Best Bet
Utah St -1
UMass/aTm u 47x

Bear
UCLA +2x
Baylor +2x
UAB +14x
Cal -5
NC St/Louisville u 45
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Another QB facing former team this week....Layne Hatcher at Texas State playing Arkansas State where he was 2019-2021 throwing for over 2000y each season.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Added three picks for me
Iowa +2x
Oklahoma St +7x
TCU -2x

Baylor is as big a mystery to me as it is to others on this board. Impossible to handicap them this year. How Kansas State can get manhandled at home v Texas and then go on the road and physically dominate Baylor is a mystery to me. I usually have by far my highest winning percentage on the Big 12, but not this year.
 
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TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Posted Greg McElroy's picks. He was 0-3 last week, but still leads among Daily Wager pickers
UCLA +2x
Iowa +2x
Baylor +2x
 
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