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El Capo 22

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
Enjoy the exchange of ideas and debate here - always welcome differing viewpoints

Preseason views/futures
National Title - ohio state +400, oklahoma +4000
heisman - smith nixba +2500, gabriel +3000, jahmyr gibbs +5000, jt daniels +7000, casey thompson +10,000 , cam ward +10,000, plumlee ucf no odds
playoffs - i think ohio state and bama make it, next in line for me on potential would be oklahoma....after that who knows...would say another sec team or usc, clemson/wake.

Theme is looking for wildcards - year over year progression/regression on coaching changes, transfers, etc.....all those heisman guys fall into that and buckeyes do with knowles. They buckeyes offense has highest ceiling of any contender, 2020 bama, 2019 lsu prolific ability potential. To me smith nixba is special, devonte smith type impact.

ACC
acc championship - wake +3853,
atlantic division.....clemson -220, lville +2500, wake?
FSU u 6.5
BC o 6
wake o
louisville o 6
duke o 3
syracuse o 4.5

Hopefully hartman gets back and soon but if he comes back sooner then expected +3853 is lotta value. I'm high on wake this year because Brad Lambert. Dude did wonders at marshall and purdue. Improving that d is major upside. Clemson is the team to beat but there is major ?s on offense and isn't a pipe dream for them to not win the conference. ....the coastal may be weakest power 5 division in football this year. virginia and virginia tech look down. I don't expect va tech to have any playmakers or virginia oline to be any good. I am buying stock in Brent Prye long term though. Also buying stock in Elko. very easy schedule for them. Not buying stock in Norvell, I can't see this team winning 7 games when they had everything in front of them against florida last year and didn't win........Boston college and lville - these coaches are perennial bowl type coaches, they are going to get the 6 or more wins.... Wildcard is Cuse due to the OC from virginia. He doesn't need a pure passer with his creativity, and that offense has some potential. I lean to the NC State is overrated camp, they are going to be in alot of close games. I don't think lville is going to win the atlantic division but their odds are +2500 and nc states is +500 ? Theres not that much difference in those teams

Big 12
champion - oklahoma +200 i think is best team, odds wise baylor +500 west virginia +2500
oklahoma o 9.5
west virginia o 5.5
baylor o 7.5
oklahoma state u 8
tcu u 6.5
Texas u 8.5

i'm buying stock in brent venables at oklahoma and addition of the Lebby and gabriel is a major wildcard and this team's ceiling is super high they can make the playoffs. Baylor is not a flash in the pan imo Aranda is the real deal and I think with regression can still get to 8 wins. Why is west virginia not expected to win as many games as they did last year after adding JT Daniels ? I've never seen georgia's offense look as good as it did at the end of 2020 with JT…Neal brown has gone from respected perennial bowl coach to no good ? Oklahoma state loses a lot. TCU had one of the worst defenses last year and is gonna win 7 games now ? I think that's gonna be tough. Texas could very well win 9 games but I'm going with it's more likely they don't. Sark hasn't proven himself yet as a good ball coach.

Pac 12
champion - washington state +4500
wash state o 5.5
ucla u 8.5
Cal o 5.5

Similar to west virginia we have a team with a new stud qb and a new coordinator similar to western kentucky last year .....that formula had good results, I'm seeing respected people on the under on both these teams not me. I'm buying all kinds of stock in Jake Dickert. I believe me and suk were on this team last year as they started to emerge. Last year wazzou had all kinds of turmoil and went to a bowl and now they can't ? I think this qb Ward and team can be a wildcard. Cal is an annual bowl team I think their d can be better this year with Johnson back on d. UCLA draws usc, oregon, utah, washington and can't lose 3 games this year ? feel like chip always loses 1 he shouldn't too and i don't know who his wide receivers are. oregon id lean over i think lanning is a good fit there.

SEC
champion - bama -145
South carolina O 6
Tennessee U 7.5
Florida O 7

I'm buying stock in another qb transfer and young head coach - shane beamer and spencer rattler. Beamer won 6 games last year with no skill position players. I'm buying stock in billy napier long term I think he's not a flashy coach but a fundamental winning coach. I'm not buying stock in tennessee vols head coach , and I do think some of those teams last year that came out in prevent defenses against that offense are going to be able to adjust a little bit. Wanna buy into missouri because they feel like an annual bowl team and should be better than last years bowl team.

BIG TEN
nebraska +1800
illinois o 4.5
nebraska o 7.5
minnesota o 7.5
indiana u 4

think huskers are the wildcard here , could get beat by nw like they always do in opening games or win 10 games. Were right there with michigan, well if huskers get an oline they can be michigan from last year....complete overhaul from frost on offensive staff.....i know he failed at arkansas but i'm buying stock in beliema in the big ten.....kirk c should help minnesota but they are losing alot on the lines.....purdue and sparty should regress some and could lose to a team like a maryland who could steal an extra win in i'm not a maryland guy but they should make a bowl. only gimme for indiana is idaho


MWC
Champion - San Jose State +2500
San Jose State O 6.5
Nevada U 5
Hawaii U 4.5

san jose state should have some wide receivers this year brennan showed really good coaching last year to stay in games. Should be alot of over teams with hawaii and nevada being so bad but not seeing enough value.

SUN BELT
champion - georgia southern +8000, south bama +1800
georgia southern o 4.5
coastal u 7.5
south bama o 5.5

I'm buying stock in clay helton fitting nicely into mid major like his brother, i'm buying stock in their oc from wku and their dc from washington who has chops. I'm buying stock in the qb vantrease. how good they are is yet to know transitioning from option but I think they can get to 5 and a wildcard. both coastal and louisiana lose alot. south bama seems to be making moves and i like that.

MAC
champion - bowling green 2500, niu 500, kent 900,
bowling green o 4.5
Kent state o 5
central michigan u 7.5
ohio o 6

if you go watch bowling greens media day it's easily the most upbeat a coach has been from any preseason interviews i've seen on teams. They have a center who started at cincinnati, some skill transfers, and the coach basically said if we took transfers a year early we could of won like 7 games last year. He thinks their run defense is finally for real. Kent state always has a horrible defense and they got a new dc this year. Ohio stole miami oh's dc. These could be some huge impacts. ...not so sure i'm sold on central who lost their oc, their ol coach, top wide receivers.

CUSA
champion - only team with decent odds fau +800
utsa o 8.5
fau o 5.5
utep o 5.5

i think utsa matches up well with some of their hard non con - army, houston. fau always liked their qb from miami fl, feels like they have more talent than some teams.

AAC
champion - cincy +190 ucf +325
ucf o 8.5
cincy o 9

i think ucf wins this conference this year with the ole miss transfer at qb who looks like he runs a 4.3.....dude is going to make some great plays. Tulane should be improved this year. Not sure i'm buying into what jeff scott is selling in tampa, i think that u 4.5 is live. they have a good oline but idn about their d.

Independents
Notre Dame U 8.5 - i'm not buying stock in marcus freeman and the projected qb starter buckner didn't look like he could throw vs va tech last year, if they didn't bring mediocre coan back in they lose that game. some of these mediocre teams they face like unc, boston college, cuse etc can upset them
liberty o 6.5 - most mystifying line i'm seeing out there - guessing its all cause of malik willis....freeze replenished with transfers and there is 6 gimmes on the schedule
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
Wow, have some futures bud, impressive. Good luck to ya.
i'll say some of them i have very little on - but wanted to do a writeup on futures to see if i have an edge there and to track to see how far off my preseason views are - think is you can look really stupid looking back on them. anymore serious college guys feel like you have to get in into futures. I'll have to rank my top 5-10 out of these and see how they do.
 

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
damn football is saturday better get some plays up - this is a still a good tracking mechanism. obviously getting worst of lines for what i'm putting up here on the forum on lot of these and many I've known what i've gonna do for months and played some in real life by now - but I guess that is the next step to start posting way earlier. Not a horrible record for posting lines fairly late in week much of time. Hitting 60% is gonna be the goal this year and I know that's damn near impossible with lotta volume but why not try ? Just got back from vegas to enter the golden nugget and collect - entered for first time last year and led for 5-6 weeks towards end and lost it when it got to nfl finishing 3rd. Ran into steve fezzik in person and he seemed like a major turd.

posted record including bowls
2019 - 285-221-13 = 563%
2020 - 136-118 - .535
2021 - 231-185 , .555
total 652 - 524 =
652/1174 = .555 percent

gonna try varying unit sizes between .25 to 5 units - anything under 1 unit is essentially more of a lean but want to put small action on it - i'll count anything 1 unit or up as like a flat betting record and keep the units as a separate record.

not alot of totals- will edit with any additional plays

week 0
utep/north texas u 54.5 - 1 unit
utep +2 vs north texas - (.5 unit)
vandy -10 @ hawaii,
o 55
- (.5 unit each)
nebraska - 11 vs northwestern (.5 unit)
new mexico state +7.5 @ nevada
(.5 unit)
fau -7 vs charlotte - (fau .5 unit)
wyoming @ illinois - not sure i can put a play on here - based on last few years iterations of these 2 schools i'd be on the dog and under all day- wyoming loses a ton though and lost touch as a trustworthy under team last year - add illinois with increased pace and i'll just watch.

Week 1
sides
lsu -3 vs florida state - 3 units
illinois 3.5 @ indiana - 3 units - upgrading to 4 units
army +3 @ coastal carolina - 3 units
west virginia 7 @ pitt - 2 units
clemson -21 vs boston college - 2 units
ohio state -16 vs notre dame - 2 units
liberty -3 @ southern miss - 2 units
purdue 3.5 vs penn state
- 1 unit
cincinnati +7 @ arkansas - 1 unit
boise state +3 @ oregon state - 1 unit
florida +3 hook - 1 unit
lville -3 with hook - 1 unit
utsa +5 vs houston -1 unit
nc state -10 vs east carolina - 1 unit
texas state 5.5 @ nevada - 1 unit
north texas +10.5 vs smu - 1 unit
appalachian state +1 vs north carolina
- 1 unit
michigan state -20.5 vs western michigan - 1 unit
south carolina - 12.5 vs georgia state - .5 unit
bowling green +24 @ ucla - (.5 unit)
colorado 10.5 vs tcu
(.5 unit )
alabama -38.5 (.25 unit)

totals
utah/florida u 50.1 - 1 unit
nc state/east carolina u 54.5- 1 unit
ohio state/notre dame o 58.5 - 1 unit
louisville /syracuse o 58.5 - 1 unit
cincinnati/arkansas u 51 - 1 unit

utsa/houston o 61.5 - 1 unit
unc/appalachian state o 54 - 1 unit
virginia tech/old dominion u 52 1 unit
illinois/indiana u 47 - 1 unit
pitt/west virginia o 51 - 1 unit

penn state/purdue u 54 - 1 unit
wyoming/tulsa u 45 - 1 unit
nevada/texas state u 51 - 1 unit
alabama/utah state o 62.5 (.5 unit)


edit: upgraded alot of plays to 1 unit and added new ones as well

totals - 6-7 full units, 6-8 overall
sides 5 - 11 full unit, 7 - 13 overall

combined 11 - 18, 13-21
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
nothing like getting your a@@ kicked week 1 always good way to remind you to go easy till have more sample size of data

week 2
boston college +3 @ virginia tech - 2 units
missouri 7.5 @ kansas state - 1 units

maryland - 26.5 @ charlotte
wake forest -13.5 @ vanderbilt

pittsburgh +6 vs tennessee
west virginia -13 vs kansas

north carolina -7 @ georgia state
air force - 17.5 vs colorado
south carolina +9 @ arkansas
arizona state +11.5 @ okie state
baylor +3 @ byu

unlv +13 @ cal
eastern michigan 11 @ louisiana
ohio state - 44 vs arkansas state
michigan - 52 vs hawaii


totals
missouri/kansas state u 56.5 - 2 units
1 unit
maryland/charlotte o 65
ohio state/arkansas state o 68.5
hawaii/michigan o 66
virginia tech/boston college u 46
iowa stae/iowa u 40

mississippi state/arizona o 57.5
arizona state/okie state o 58.5
florida/kentucky o 51.
5

slight leans
tamu -17 vs app state
penn state -28 vs ohio
michigan - 52 vs hawaii


8-14
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
19-32 ytd

week 3
2
iowa -23 vs nevada
bearcats -23.5 @ miami oh
oklahoma -11 @ nebraska
syracuse -1.5 vs purdue

texas tech +10 @ nc state
california 12.5 @ notre dame
rutgers -18.5 @ temple
1
eastern michigan 20.5 @ arizona state
tulane 14 @ kansas state

fresno state +11 @ usc
buffalo +13 @ coastal
bowling green +16.5 vs marsha
ll

eastern michigan/arizona state u 57
western kentucky/indiana u 60.5
miami fl/tamu u 45
ohio/iowa state u 47.5
virginia/old dominion u 54
colorado state/washington state u 52.5
iowa/nevada u 40

notre dame/cal u 41
pitt/western michigan u 48.5

14-6
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
33-38

week 4
2
west va -2.5 @ virginia tech
wake forest 7.5 vs clemson
kansas -7 @ duke
lsu -31 vs new mexico

purdue -20 vs fau
ucf - 20 vs georgia tech
nc state -39 vs uconn

south carolina -22 vs charlotte
georgia state 2.5 vs coastal
1
arkansas state 5.5 @ old dominion
air force -23.5 vs nevada
cincinnati -16 vs indiana

boston college 17 @ florida state
oregon state 6 vs usc
tulsa 22 @ ole miss

auburn -7 vs missouri
northwestern -7 vs miami oh


2
virginia/cuse u 53.5
florida state/boston college o 48

kansas state/oklahoma u 53
missouri/auburn u 51
toledo/san diego state u 46

clemson/wake u 56.5
1
sparty/minnesota u 50.5
tulane/southern miss u 48
air force/nevada u 46
va tech/west virginia u 51

iowa/rutgers u 34
utah/zona state u 54
nw/miami oh u 50
bowling green/miss state o 52

oregon/washington state u 57
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
20-12 last week after 3 late add losers

53 - 50 ytd

washington -2.5 @ ucla
iowa +10.5 vs michigan
west virginia 8 @ texas
fresno state -23.5 @ uconn
new mexico state -14 vs fiu

san jose state -2.5 @ wyoming
east carolina -9.5 @ south florida

texas tech 8 @ kansas state
oregon state 10.5 @ utah

liberty - 3 @ old dominion
utep -3 @ charlotte
purdue 10.5 @ minnesota
duke -2.5 vs virginia
georgia southern +10 @ coastal carolina
troy 5.5 @ western kentucky

indiana 4.5 @ nebraska
lsu -8.5 @ auburn
cal 4.5 @ washington state
usc - 24 @ arizona state
georgia -28 @ missouri


wisconsin/illinois u 44
iowa/michigan u 42.5
lsu/auburn u 44.5

sdstu/boise u 39
west va/texas o 61
indiana/nebraska o 61

ok state/baylor o 55.5
virginia/duke u 54
add: purdue/minnesota o 53


11-17
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
dissapointing 11-17 last week, feel like i won all my leans that didn't make the card

64 - 67 ytd

friday night had rutgers, nevada, col state nevada u


week 6
2 unit
kansas jayhawks +7 vs tcu
byu +4 vs notre dame
duke -3.5 vs georgia tech

iowa state +1 vs kansas state
purdue +3 @ maryland
wazzou +12 @ usc
1 unit
texas -8 vs oklahoma
wisconsin -10 vs arkansas
iowa +4 @ illinois
miss state -9 vs tamu

michigan -22.5 @ indiana

totals
k state/iowa state u 44
southern miss/troy u 44

wyoming/new mexico u 36.5
arizona/oregon o 70
michigan/indiana o 58
kansas/tcu o 68.5
duke/geogia tech u 55
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
10-6-2 last week

74 - 73 ytd

2
Tulane -12 @ south florida
Kansas +9.5 @ oklahoma
Alabama -8.5 @ tennessee
Nc state +3 @ syracuse
Utah state -11 @ colorado state
Penn state +7 @ michigan
UAB - 23.5 @ charlotte

Arizona +14.5 @ washington
Cal -15 @ colorado
1
Kent state +7.5 @ toledo
Rice +4 @ fau
Iowa state 15.5 @ texas
Auburn 14.5 @ ole miss
Air force -10 @ unlv


totals
cuse/nc state u 43
penn state/michigan o 49
oklahoma/kansas o 64.5
oklahoma state/tcu o 69
usc/utah o 65
colorado state/utah state u 46

cal/colorado o 48
georgia/vandy u 59
wisconsin/sparty u 49
florida/lsu u 50
illinois/minnesota u 39

va tech/miami fl u 48
iowa state/texas u 48.5


9-4 totals
6-8 sides
15-12 week
89 - 85 ytd

leans
minnesota -6.5 @ illinois
Nevada -4.5 @ hawaii
East carolina -6 vs memphis
Wisconsin -7 vs sparty
San jose state -8.5 @ fresno state
Maryland -11 vs indiana

clemson -4 @ florida state
Notre dame -16.5 vs stanford
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
89-85

2
georgia tech -3 vs virginia
uab +2 @ western kentucky
purdue 2.5 @ wisconsin
cincinnati -3 @ smu

east carolina +5 @ ucf
duke +9.5 @ miami fl

1
notre dame -25.5 vs unlv
cal 7.5 vs washington
san jose state -21 vs new mex state
west virginia 7 @ texas tech
baylor -8.5 vs kansas
clemson -13.5 vs syracuse
miss state 21.5 @ bama

lsu -1.5 vs ole piss
bowling green 6.5 @ central michigan
fiu 14.5 vs charlotte
akron 18.5 @ kent state
liberty 7 vs byu

ul monroe 7 vs army
utep +3.5 vs fau
tamu -3 @ south carolina

2
south bama/troy u 47
sdstu/nevada u 36.5
boise/air force u 47.5

duke/miami fl u 59
lsu/ole miss u 67.5
1
georgia tech/virginia u 47
notre dame/unlv u 47
tulsa/temple u 52.5
ucf/ecu u 65
western mich/miami oh u 44
tcu/k state o 54

wyoming/utah state u 42
southern miss/tex state u 43
james madison/marshall u 51

smu/cincy o 59
missouri/vandy u 50
toledo/buffalo u 57

12-4 totals
10-10 sides
22-14
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
111-99 , .528 %
55-33 totals 56-66 sides
horrible on my supposedly more confident sides this year, try to grind it out 2nd half...........first time 3 consecutive games row a starting qb got knocked out for me, utah state nightcap week ago, g tech thursday, and uab friday......luckily didn't have k state saturday. thinking 2/3 and maybe 3 of those cover without it

wyoming -11 @ hawaii
pitt 3.5 @ north carolina

illinois 7 @ corn
iowa state 1.5 vs oklahoma
kansas state -1.5 vs oklahoma state
rutgers 14 vs minnesota
gators 22 vs georgia
missouri 3.5 @ south carolina

iowa state/oklahoma o 54
notre dame/cuse u 47
okie state/k state o 56

ucf/cincy u 56
southern miss/louisiana u 43
east carolina/byu o 62
northwestern/iowa u 36.5
michigan state/michigan o 55
illinois/nebraska o 50

minnesota/rutgers u 40
miami/virginia u 49
rice/charlotte o 61.5

arizona state/colorado u 47.5


7-13
eyeing k state, michigan , old dominion, missouri

lean
san jose state -24 vs nevada, san jose u
boise state -25 vs colorado state, boise u
usc, usc o, tcu, tcu wvu o

EDIT: adding kansas state, rutgers, gators, buying out uab
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
118-112 ytd, .513 percent

wake forest -3 @ nc state
byu 9 @ boise
hawaii 27 @ fresno st
texas tech 8 @ tcu

wisconsin -4.5 vs maryland
navy 19 @ cincy

north carolina -7 @ virginia
purdue -3 vs iowa

kansas -1.5 vs oklahoma state
miss state -12 vs auburn
florida state -7.5 @ miami fl
baylor 3.5 @ oklahoma

vandy 7 vs south carolina

marshall/old dominion u 47
troy/louisiana u 43

duke/bc u 46.5
sparty/illinois u 40.5
kentucky/missouri u 40

va tech/g tech u 41
purdue/iowa u 39
clemson/notre dame o 44
smu/houston o 65

tulsa/tulane o 56
utah/arizona o 67

tcu/texas tech u 69.5
oklahoma/baylor o 61


sides 6-7
totals 9-4
15-11
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
133-123

Tulane -2.5 vs ucf
Navy 16 @ notre dame
Wake forest -3.5 vs unc
Lsu -3.5 @ arkansas
Miss state 16.5 vs georgia

Pitt -4.5 @ virginia
Vanderbilt 18 @ kentucky
Ecu +5.5 @ cincinnati

New mexico 22 @ air force
Minnesota -17 vs northwestern
Uconn 14 vs liberty
Boise state -21 @ nevada

Rice 13 @ western kentucky
Kansas 3.5 @ texas tech
Louisville 7 @ clemson
North texas 6 @ uab

washington state -9.5 vs arizona state

Army/troy u 46
Vandy/kentucky u 47.5

Rutgers/sparty u 41.5
Bc/nc state u 41.5
Ucf/tulane u 54.5
Old dominion/james madison u 47.5
Rice/western kentucky o 60
Pitt/virginiau40.5
Smu/usf o 74
Washington/oregon o 72.5
San jose state/san diego state u 41
Marshall/app u 47
Cincinnati/ecu u 51.5

Bama/ole miss u 65
Oklahoma/west virginia o 68.5
Charlotte/mtsu o 67
Ucla/ariona o 77.5

Wisky/iowa u 35
new mexico/air force u 37.5


8-9 sides
6-13 totals
14-22 week
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
142 - 136 ytd
smu/tulane O 65

saturday
2
vols -22 vs cocks
wake -10 vs syracuse
illinois 17.5 @ michigan
oklahoma state 7 @ boomer sooner
uconn 10.5 @ army

fresno state -22 @ nevada
marshall -7 vs georgia southern

boston college +21 @ notre dame
ohio state -26.5 @ maryland

duke 7.5 @ pitt
liberty -10 vs virginia tech
kansas state -7.5 @ west va
nc state 4 @ louisville
1

vanderbilt 14 vs gators
wisconsin -9.5 @ huskers
temple 17 vs
cincy
navy 15.5 @ ucf
wazzou -4 @ arizona
indiana 11 @ sparty
penn state -18 @ rutgers


okie state/oklahoma o 67
south alabama/southern miss u 45

kentucky/georgia u 47
texas tech/iowa state u 47.5

lsu/uab u 51
ville/nc state u 43
gators/vandy o 57.5
indiana/sparty o 47
auburn/western kentucky o 54




10-9 sides
6-3 totals
16-12 week
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
158-148 ytd

identifying plays that are supposed to be higher confidence continues to be a problem. went 17-6 in the yahoo league with random sides and just 10-9 here on select sides.

illinois -14 vs northwestern
western kentucky -7 vs fau
tennessee -14 vs vandy
ucla -10 vs cal
tulane +2.5 @ cincy
marshall -5.5 vs georgia state
utah -30 @ colorado
byu -6.5 vs stanford

ucf -20 vs usf
pittsburgh -6.5 vs miami fl
utah state 16.5 @ boise state
missouri 4 vs arkansas
notre dame 4.5 vs usc
east carolina -10 @ temple
clemson -14 vs south carolina

west va 8.5 @ oklahoma state
utep 17 @ utsa

rutgers 14 @ maryland

tulane/cincy u 48
wash st/wash u 60.5
iowa state/tcu u 47.5
lsu/tamu u 46

utah state/boise o 53
georgia/georgia tech u 49
nebraska/iowa u 37
arkansas/missouri u 55.5
 
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