Bet at Betanysports.eu

%ALT_TXT%% MB NFL21 468x60 Jpg

DFS/Props Week 11 Discussion

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Here are the top 10 lineups in the 20 entry max DK DFS tourney.

All 10 had Fields, again.

1668623397134.png

In the 4 weeks I've starting to take note of this,

65% of the time there's a RB at the flex spot, 23% WR, 12% TE.
65% of the time the QB is team stacked, 30% its game stacked. 5% of the times he is completely naked (this has only worked with a rushing QB).
89% of the time the TE position was punted (so like less than 3.2K~), at the TE spot and the Flex. 11% of the time, it was a top 5 TE (the kittles/kelces).
12.5% of the time the RB was paired with the DEF, 87.5% of the time it wasn't.
70% of the time the DEF position was punted (so llike less than <3K~), 30% of the time it was paid up for.

Let's keep this in mind, and get to next week!
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Thurs. Showdown Slate

TEN/GBP


Titans have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Packers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Tannehill has a meh ASR matchup, Henry has the best ALY push.
Rodgers has a great ASR matchup, Jones has a meh ALY push.
Pace of play is 14th, last.

- Injuries - TEN - On D, S Hooker out for 3rd week, LB Dupree out for 2nd week, LB Cunningham out for 2nd week. They have 2 backup CBs/1 S out. A DT/CB are Q. On OL, their C, and maybe the best OLineman on the team Jones is out.
- GBP - On D, LB Campbell is out for 3rd week, LB Gary out for 2nd week, extra LB Galeai is on IR, CB Stokes is out for 2nd week, extra CB Jean-Charles doubtful. On O, still no WR Doubs, and obviously no Cobb.

- Lets start with the king, he has a great matchup, and the best ALY push (although that is with C Jones in), still, the guy is a captain candidate, I'll have him there, but I won't be overweight it. The past 2 weeks, he saw his snap count below 60% in each game, and has averaged only 19.5 opportunities in them, having said that, he still reached over 90 total yards average, with a td average.... a floor of 15 points seems reasonable, to add, with tannehill back, he finally saw targets again, and since week 3 with Tannehill, he's averaging just about 4 targets a game. Not bad. Hilliard on the otherhand has seen his snaps increase in 3 straight weeks, topping out at 41% last week, his usage is still minimal, but I think in some lineups you can get unique and roster both (see week 8), just know, he does have a low floor of course. Even in 1 take him by himself, for the off chance henry gets hurt. There's been 4 weeks the titans 3 WRs have played together, Weeks 1-3, Ikhine was the deepest aDOT/r with a 11.3% target share, Woods was next at 10.8 aDOT/r with 20% target share, and Burks was last at 8.3 aDOT/r but 16.3% target share. Last week was the 4th week, and not only did Ikhine lead in targets, but he led in aDOT/r too. I know Dak/Lamb is not Tannehill/Tenny WR, but he did just get lamb to a 11-150-2 statline against this defense, I wouldn't be shocked if we have one do well again, but I'll keep it to one-offs at max, and not stack multiple Wrs here. We never really want a titans TE, but we need some cheap options to fit in the big guns, and Hilliard isn't going to cut it for every spot. Eliminate Rader, because you might as well go Swaim at that point, I'm not sure how Hooper will fit into lineups at his price point as I haven't fiddled with it, but he plays the most snaps at the position, and had 7 targets in tanny's return, not bad. Okwonko had just 2 targets, but 1 in the redzone, and 1 was a deep shot where he caught it 16 yards away, and ran for an addition 25 (did the same vs the cheifs too I believe)... I think he can be a last spot salary saver in lineups.
Let's start at TE since I'm here. Tonyan and Lewis have played together in 3 games, and play almost the same amount of snaps, I don't know how you can justify taking Tonyan at 5.8K when Lewis is $600..... I'll have some shares of him as my cheapest option, with the hopes he gets 1 into the EZ. Will no Doubs/Cobb still, Watson came in healthy, and immediately saw 84% of snaps, his season highest by far, and the first time he was over 32% since week 1, he led the team in targets, with a massive target share of 42%, and with just 4 catches for 107 yards, people will think he had a ton of YAC, but he actually had an aDOT/r of 20.3, these kind of numbers can be reproduced in a matchup where rodgers is expected to have some time in the pocket. If you can fit him, I think Lazard is still a good option, he finished with 21% target share in a tough matchup last week, and can succeed with Watson too, but he does come pricier. I probably won't have watkins, he played just 33% of snaps, and if the packers get any sort of lead, I think that can continue (or get worse). We were so worried about Jones's health, but he came out and get 26 opportunities, totaling over 150 yards with 70% snap share, the 3rd time he's got to 70% or higher... he's practically matchup proof minus a lead of more than 7, and can be a ppr beast when needed. as he's currently 7th in total targets this year. Barring a Jones injury, the only way I'd have Dillon is if you build a lineup based off Packers leading big (so GBP D, Titans WRs, Etc.) He hasn't scored since week 1, and minus the game where jones came out, he has seen a steep dropoff in snaps post week 4.
 
Last edited:

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
C. Watson Rec Yds O43.5 -115 2.3-2

Starting with this, may add more.

I played him and also Lazard ov48.5. Pretty confident at least of them cashes, could def see both coming in with Lazard being the consistent target guy underneath and watson hit a deep ball or 2.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Nice.

Didn't realize his # was that low.

He's really coming on.

They finally got Burkes involved today, I keep waiting for him to have these kind of games. I think the talent there, prob tough playing on this team with no consistency in the passing game at all.
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Feel lucky to have squeaked that Ikhine out.

2-0 +4 is nice though, however let me rant for a moment.

Here's my best DFS lineup tonight
1668749360697.png

It finished T-97th out of 158,541 spots in the 20 entry max tourney. There were only 2 unique lineups better than it (the top 96), that finished with 134.59, and 134.47.

This lineup above (mine) was tied for first going into the last titans drive.
The last drive was 4 plays. Tannehill to Burks for 51 yards, and then 3 kneel downs.

That's 4.74 points for Tannehill (3 points for crossing over 300+ passing yards, -0.3 for the -3 rushing yards, and +2.04 for the 51 passing yards)
That's 9.1 points for Burks (3 points for crossing over 100+ rec. yards, 1 point for reception, 5.1 points for rec. yards)

Tannehill being captain of both those unique lineups let catchup by half of his points scored (as captains get 1.5, and I had tannehill in my non captain spot), plus all of burks points, as I didn't have him in that lineup.

Thats 9.1 from burks, and 2.37 from tanny, 11.47 total points.

So I lost by .33, and .45. I don't get jumped if Burks 51 yard catch goes for 47 yards or less. 48 yards for 2nd, and 49+ yards for 3rd (or worse if it went for a TD).

First place is like 40K, but my lineup was pretty ownership heavy, and would have been split like 300 ways....but still, infuriating
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Feel lucky to have squeaked that Ikhine out.

2-0 +4 is nice though, however let me rant for a moment.

Here's my best DFS lineup tonight
View attachment 70461

It finished T-97th out of 158,541 spots in the 20 entry max tourney. There were only 2 unique lineups better than it (the top 96), that finished with 134.59, and 134.47.

This lineup above (mine) was tied for first going into the last titans drive.
The last drive was 4 plays. Tannehill to Burks for 51 yards, and then 3 kneel downs.

That's 4.74 points for Tannehill (3 points for crossing over 300+ passing yards, -0.3 for the -3 rushing yards, and +2.04 for the 51 passing yards)
That's 9.1 points for Burks (3 points for crossing over 100+ rec. yards, 1 point for reception, 5.1 points for rec. yards)

Tannehill being captain of both those unique lineups let catchup by half of his points scored (as captains get 1.5, and I had tannehill in my non captain spot), plus all of burks points, as I didn't have him in that lineup.

Thats 9.1 from burks, and 2.37 from tanny, 11.47 total points.

So I lost by .33, and .45. I don't get jumped if Burks 51 yard catch goes for 47 yards or less. 48 yards for 2nd, and 49+ yards for 3rd (or worse if it went for a TD).

First place is like 40K, but my lineup was pretty ownership heavy, and would have been split like 300 ways....but still, infuriating

That tough, hard to see how your lineup coulda been better other than Burkes instead of cobb. What other change beats your lineup?
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
That tough, hard to see how your lineup coulda been better other than Burkes instead of cobb. What other change beats your lineup?

Best lineup was;
Capt. Tannehill (I had Henry)
Flex Henry (I had Tannehill) (this swap was 1.17 points better in my favor)
Flex Watson (same)
Flex Hooper (same)
Flex Woods (I had Cobb, who did .4 better)
Flex Burks (I had Rodgers who did 2.02 worse)

2nd best lineup was;
Capt. Tannehill (I had Henry)
Flex Henry (I had Tannehill) (this swap was 1.17 points better in my favor)
Flex Watson (same)
Flex Rodgers (same)
Flex Cobb (same)
Flex Burks (I had Hooper, who was 1.5 points worse)

Bolded the last drive scorers.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Best lineup was;
Capt. Tannehill (I had Henry)
Flex Henry (I had Tannehill) (this swap was 1.17 points better in my favor)
Flex Watson (same)
Flex Hooper (same)
Flex Woods (I had Cobb, who did .4 better)
Flex Burks (I had Rodgers who did 2.02 worse)

2nd best lineup was;
Capt. Tannehill (I had Henry)
Flex Henry (I had Tannehill) (this swap was 1.17 points better in my favor)
Flex Watson (same)
Flex Rodgers (same)
Flex Cobb (same)
Flex Burks (I had Hooper, who was 1.5 points worse)

Bolded the last drive scorers.

That brutal. So before that last drive you had best lineup? God that sucks, I turned game off after packers got stopped, I was shocked to see titans had gotten it all way to inside 10, thought for sure they would just run it out. They the last team you think would throw a pass in that spot, crazy!
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
That brutal. So before that last drive you had best lineup? God that sucks, I turned game off after packers got stopped, I was shocked to see titans had gotten it all way to inside 10, thought for sure they would just run it out. They the last team you think would throw a pass in that spot, crazy!

Yeah... kind of stinks, but nothing I can do about it now.

Templates for Sunday.

1PMs/Main Slate

CLV/BUF


Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bills have a great P/RB matchup.
Chubb has a meh ALY push.
Allen has a good ASR matchup. Singletary has a great ALY push.
Browns TTR is T-12th.
Bills TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 4th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is T-1st.

- Injuries - CLV - On D, DT Winfrey out for 3rd week, LB Philips out for 3rd week, CB Newsome is Q with concussion. On O, TE Njoku is Q.
- BUF - On D, CB White is still out, LB Edmunds is out, DE Rousseau is out for 2nd week. On O, WR McKenzie is Q with an illness (would be a boost to Shakir).

- On the outside looking in, It seems like the browns have a pretty bad DVOA/line matchup, but we have a banged up buffalo D, and a game with a good pace, and best OURank. So it's to avoid. Even in a game where he was blown out, and saw under 50% of snaps, Chubb had 15 opportunities (3 catches) 81 total yards, and a TD. That's 17 points without really trying, he can always be considered, just know he's expensive, and the slate is tight. There's a real chance this game turns into a shootout, and Cooper/DPJ make up 45% of the teams target shares, and they both extremely good aDOT/rs of 11/11.9, I think either can be considered but know DPJ comes at a great discount. IT's also now 4 straight games with over 10 FPs without scoring a TD. He has a path to 20+ points (cooper too of course). If Njoku is out, Bryant becomes a pretty cheap option again, but with Njoku in, I probably pass on both.
Knox continues to log 80%+ snap counts over the last 4 games, and is averaging 4 targets/g in that span with a decent TE aDOT/r of 7.7, he is cheap too, and gets a RZ target/g as well, I don't hate him, he's kind of like Bryant above but on arguably a better offense/pass heavier team, so I'd rather him if choosing. Diggs is an absolute savage, he has a huge target share of 29.6%, averages to 11 a game, with 1.5 RZ target average too, a good aDOT/r of 9.3, and is part of the biggest TT team for the week. it's hard not to like him. If you want to fade him, you still probably want this offense, and Davis is obviously a great choice too, he has an incredible aDOT/r of 17.6, still gets 6 targets a game, and we know he has slate breaking upside, both him and diggs can see 90%+ snaps. If McKenzie sits, Shakir becomes a must play at 3K. Singletary is cheap, and could get you there, but I'd save him for a one-off lineup where you fade the buffalo passing attack completely. Even with 2 TDs last week, he just finished as the RB12. he has to low of a floor for me to stomach.

NYJ/NEP

Jets have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pats have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Z. Wilson has a meh ASR matchup,
Mac has a bad ASR matchup, Stevenson has a bad ALY push.
Jets TTR is 21st.
Pats TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is 11th (last).

- Injuries - NYJ - On D, DT Rankins is out. On OL, 2 now starters are Q (Herbig/Brown), so keep an eye out, as that could make it 5 different OLineman out since start of year. On O, WR Davis is out.
- NEP - On D a Bellichekian ton of Q's. On OL, T Cannon out for 3rd week. On O, WR Parker is Q.

- Even with Harris off the injury report, Stevenson is a reasonably priced option, he has 3 straight games with at least 7 targets (one against the Jets, when Harris was back), he's actually 6th among RBs in total targets, despite having a small role for 2 weeks, and has more carries than 3 of the 5 guys above him in targets. He's absolutely solid. I wouldn't be shocked to see this competitive or playing from behind, and Rhamondre get a ton of opportunity. I think the perceived tough matchup, the middling price point, the return of a healthy Harris, the dead last OUrank, will keep his ownership low, and I like that for tourneys. I like Meyers, he plays a ton, and is a really good PPR option who's cheap. He reminds me of DPJ in a sense, as he consistently gets 10+ FPs but is never mentioned/considered. I don't hate him here, but I'll probably have Rhamondre more, and I don't really want to team stack a game with the lowest OURank. I guess with Parker out, thoronton/bournce can be a homerun hitter, but not vs this D, pass. Don't really want Henry, but you could do worse.
Robinsons last game ate into Carters opportunities, both saw about between 13 and 15 opportunities. In a close game or game in which they lead, I don't see a steady PPR floor from either back, and I'm not guessing which one outperforms/scores a TD. Pass. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Moore was inactive week 9, and he didn't see a snap. The guy is unplayable. With Davis out the last 2 games, and Moore in the doghouse, Wilson has came in and became a 90% snap guy, while averaging 8 targets in those games, for a total of a 28% target share, and an ok 8.4 aDOT/r. That's not bad for 4.9K salary on DK. I mentioned Wilsons boom, I have to mention Mims too, because of the opportunity, he has seen 75%, then 83% of snaps, it's only led to 7 total targets, but that kind of playing time, and a salary of 3.3K, you could do MUCH worse, and you may need the salary relief in this slate. Don't really want this Conklin/Uzomah time share either.

CHI/ATL

Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a great P/RB matchup.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup (again). Montgom? has a great ALY push.
Mariota has a meh ASR matchup, Patterson has a good ALY push.
Bears TTR is 8th.
Falcons TTR is T-3rd.
Pace of play is 13th overall, 11th in MS (last). However, OUrank is T-1st.

- Injuries - CHI - On D, just some Q's. On O, RB Herbert is out, TE Kmet is Q, WR Harry is Q.
- ATL - On D, CB Hayward should still be out, CB Terrell is Q, S Harris is Q.

- Man o man, what do we do with the cheat code in Fields? This is what you need to decide first before toying with lineup construction. His last 4 week rushing stats are that of the top tier RBs, plus you get his arm. Its Lamar Jackson MVP era good. Now he comes into this weekend with what looks like a phenomenal DVOA matchup, and the #1 OURank (that's come down since open). My head AND gut tell me to completely fade him and his ownership, for the sole reason that there is an absolutely path to failure here. As this is the SLOWEST paced game of the main slate, AND we know both these teams like to run the ball more than pass. Another way to pivot would be to leverage off a fields failure with Montgomery. With no Herbert for the first time this year, he has a path to 80%+ snaps, and does have a great matchup too, and doesn't break the bank. Kmet is still relatively cheap, and has seen added volume, but a broken play led to a chunk of his production, and I can't rely on a 3rd straight 2 TD performance. If you do go the fields route, and want to pair him, I still think Mooney is the way, he's the only consistent WR on the field, and has a really good 28% total target share on this offense, he's 600 more than claypool with a much bigger floor/ceiling.
If I'm avoiding Fields, I probably won't have to much ATL, but if I play, we probably want to game stack this one. From a RB standpoint, this could be the position you play if avoiding Fields, but the problem is Patterson is kind of to expensive for his returned role. He has yet to get to 40% of snaps, and without his 2 TDs, he's averaging under 5 points a game in PPR formats, thats not something you want for someone that costs over 6K. I may consider a lineup or 2 with Allgeier, he's seen the same or more snaps than patterson, and should get over 10+ opportunities in this game in a good scenario. I'm obviously hunting for a TD, but falcons are faves, and are committed to running the ball. From a game stackign spot, its london or pitts. I don't really want London, I think there's cheaper value plays that have more upside than him, he has also seen his aDOT/r slide week to week. Pitts on the otherhand has been seeing more targets, and is actually #1 among TE's in total air yards, and 1 of 2 that are over 10 (Andrews is in second at 10.64 aDOT, Pitts is an astounding 14.52 ---- Dulcich is the only one trending to match them but he obviously has a much smaller sample size.)

PHI/IND

Eagles have a meh P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Colts have a great RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Sanders has a bad ALY push.
Ryan has a bad ASR matchup, Taylor has a meh ALY push.
Eagles TTR is T-3rd.
Colts TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 3rd overall, 2nd in MS. OURank is 4th.

- Injuries - PHI - On D, DT Tuipulotu is out, CB Maddox is out for 2nd week, couple of other Q's. On O, TE Goedert is out, WRs Brown/Smith are Q.
- IND - On D, DE Paye is out, LB Leonard is out for 2nd week, DE Lewis is out for 3rd week, couple of Q. On O, RB Jackson is Q, TE Woods is out.

- This is kind of a tricky one, everyone expects the eagles to bounce back from the divisional match vs a lowly colts team with a no experience HC off a win, but they're on the road, short week non-conference game, with primetime game against the packers on deck. They also have bad DVOA matchups too, and I kind of think they could lose this game too. I can't come around to playing hurts this week when his pricing is sandwiched between fields and lamar, and they have much better rushing floors than him. I expect philly to not be playing with a lead, which does buck the vegas line, so I don't really want shares of sanders as he has a 0 target floor, a QB that can vulture, and is the 8th most expensive back... pass. We obviously need to take a wait and see approach on these WRs, but I don't really like the matchup either way, and why pay 8K for brown in a tough spot, when you can have Diggs/Lamb/St.brown/etc. the same kind of arguement with Smith. Now if both/either are out, watkins may be on my salary punt radar. With Goedert out, everyone and their mother will be on Stoll (especially in cash games), he's min priced, and stepping into a massive opportunity boost, in tourneys though, idk if I need to get 400-600~ cheaper to get him, and may want to fade the ownership, haven't decided yet.
I've already mentioned how I think colts can be a sneaky option in this game, and last week Taylor came in and played 94%!!! of snaps, his season high, which got him to 24 opportunities, and 163 total yards. He has a great DVOA matchup, and lets not forget this game has a higher than expected pace. Sign me up. The last 3 games with Matt Ryan, Campbell has averaged almost 11 targets a game, and a TD in each one, he's also 4.3K which is pretty darn cheap, and will be on my radar. I don't want to forget about Pittman, he's love just as much as campbell, and has a tiny bit higher aDOT in those games, yet still loweer than I'd want, but he's averaging just above 11 targets in those same 3 games as campbell, he just doesn't have the TDs to go with it, its really a price point thing here, but if you want leverage, I think Pittman beating Campbell can create space, but can you fit it. Granson only got to 4 targets with both Cox and Woods out, Cox should be back and I have no interest in either.

LAR/NOS

Rams have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a good P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Wolford? has a bad ASR matchup, Henderson? has a bad ALY push.
Rams TTR is T-19th.
Saints TTR is T-12th.
Pace of play is 12th overall, 10th in MS. OUrank is 10th.

- Injuries - LAR - On OL, this Oline will only have 2 week 1 starters in, and will even be missing 2 guys that started last weeks game when they were already injury riddled....yikes. On O, WR Kupp is out.
- NOS - On D, LB Werner is out for 2nd week, CB Lattimore/Roby are still out, DE Davenport out for 2nd week, DE Jordan is out, backup S Gray is out. On OL, C McCoy is out for 2nd week, T Hurst is out, and G Peat is Q. On O, no RB Ingram, obviously no WR Thomas.

- Jesus christ Rams games are just injury riddled all over. We never liked rams RB's, why start now? Henderson played 57% of snaps, and Akers/Williams filled the rest, and henderson led the way with 7 opportunities. gross. Williams had garbage time looks, and had 39 total yards on 4 plays, you'd think he'll see more time. I had no interest in this banged up Oline until I saw the banged up NOS defense too. IF stafford plays, I can be talked into one-offing Robinson/Skowronek/Higbee, Van Jefferson hasn't been seeing the playing time, and skowronek is cheaper coming up a 98% snap share game, he's also the low aDOT guy and if Stafford doesn't have time in the pocket, he may be peppered, I wouldn't be suprised at a 10+ target game coming from a 3.9K player, thats not bad, the same could be said about Higbee, but a lot of TE's are at his price range, not a lot of WRs are for skowronek.
You see no Mark Ingram again, and you say hello Kamara, he's averaging 83%+ snap count w/o ingram, but his usage was terrible in those 2 games... he had just 13/12 opportunities respectively. Having said that, he may have been scripted out a bit in 6~+ quarters of those 2 games. Idk if he's a lock for me given his volatility and price, but he's on my list. He's yet to see less than 4 targets in any game, and has a solid floor because of it and I don't think he will be that owned. Olave seems to expensive to me in a game that can turn into a negative script for him. Landry was just as good in his return last week, carries no injury going into sunday now, and comes at a much cheaper price, just play him if you want Olave. Johnson has finished as a top 8 PPR TE in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and he's still relatively cheap, idk if I'll have him, but he can be considered.

CAR/BAL

Panthers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Baker? has a meh ASR matchup. Foreman has a good ALY push.
Lamar has a good ASR matchup, Edwards? has a meh ALY push.
Panthers TTR is 22nd (last).
Ravens TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is T-9th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is 6th.

- Injuries - CAR - On D, S Burris is out for 3rd week, S Chinn may be making his return, CB Jackson is out, DE Ioannidis is out, CB Hartsfield is doubtful, and CB horn is Q.
- BAL - On D, S Williams is still out. On O, QB Jackson/TE Andrews/RB Edwards are all Q.

- If foreman continues this workhorse load, he's a still at 5.9K, the problem is they're huge dogs, and he can be easily scripted out. If you think Carolina keeps it competitive, he may be a must play, otherwise, idk if we can justify it. No to the TE's. At WR, we have a kind of cheap Moore that can be considered as a decent ppr floor kind of guy, but lets not forget Marshall is seeing almost the same amount of snaps post robbie anderson, and is cheap at 4.4K. Panthers led wire to wire last week, and at some points by 2+ possessions, the 2 games prior to that, in a positive passing script, he averaged 7.5 targets (to moores 8.5), I think he should be on your list. Bakers a bad throw or 2 from being yanked, pass, despite the floor price.
Lamar on the other hand, isn't expected to see a ton of pressure, and the secondary of carolina is broken (especially if chinn doesn't come back and/or horn is deemed out), I will have me some lamar+WR, I think Lamar+Andrews could be a low owned stack too, since most will go to Allen, down to Fields, or lower to Dak, and people fear Andrews playing time. I hate to say this, but you can obviously Stick to Josh Allen (or one of those other QBs), and go to Drake here, especially if Edwards is deemed out. 2nd highest TT, with possibly nobody to really fight your snaps, and almost 2 TD faves.


DET/NYG

Lions have a good P/RB matchup.
Giants have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Goff has the best ASR matchup. Williams? has a great ALY push.
Lions TTR is T-12th.
Giants TTR is 6th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is 5th.

- Injuries - DET - On D, LB Harris is out again, DE Paschal is out, a couple of Q's. On O, WR Chark may be returning.
- NYG - On D, S Mckinney out for 2nd week, DE Williams out for 2nd week. On OL, G Bredesen out for 3rd week, T Neal is doubtful, they may be returning G Lemieux, who played 17 snaps last year in total. Still no WR Shep, Toney gone, and now Robinson/Golladay are Q. TE Bellinger is out.

- With chark returning, I'd assume there's a semi hit to reynolds, and Kennedy becomes a no thought, but we still have St. Brown and his massive 10+ target floor in games he plays without mid game injury. He gets insane volume and can always be considered... I guess the only concern is possible wind conditions, but it doesn't seem as bad as Pats game. Swift was completely off the injury report, but can we trust the volume? I will say Williams saw just 40% of snaps last week (and 0 targets), Swift had 9 opps.(3 targets) on 31% of snaps. IF you want to take a gamble, and be the first one to try to guess his increased volume, you'll get a leg up, as nobody will be playing him, but idk if I have the balls, as he could literally put up a dud in your lineup but I get it, and I may in 1. The TEs were barely used for 2 straight weeks without hockenson, pass for me.
Barkley is going to be jammed in when he can, and it's hard to blame anyone, he is practically tied with henry for rush attempts (over 30+ carries away from 3rd), and also has an average of 4 targets a game. He has an insane floor/ceiling combo, they're faves, the pace/OU are good, he's just the most expensive, it's a tough slate, and you need to ask yourself do the Cooks/Taylors of the world have the ability to match/outperform him while giving you salary savings to increase another position, I kind of think it does, so I'll have limited exposure here. We need to take a wait and see approach at WR, if they're both out, Slayton/Robinson are the snap WRs to own, and they are cheap enough to consider, but remember this is a run first team, and last week alone 5 different receivers had atleast 2 targets (and no more than 4), I don't' think any is needed. If Cager gets called back up, he;s min priced, and played 65% of snaps last week, he had a 2-9-1 statline, but he'd be min priced, and a pivot off of the Stoll's of the world.

WAS/HOU

Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Robinson? has a good ALY push.
Pierce has a bad ALY push.
Commanders TTR is T-9th.
Texans TTR is T-17th.
Pace of play is 11th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is T-7th.

- Injuries - WAS - On D, LB Holcomb is out for 4th week, DE Young continues to be out. On O, RB McKissic is still out, no TE Rodgers.
- HOU - On D, CB Stingley is out, DE Green is Q, but hadn't practiced Friday.

- Robinson/Gibson are in an even split, both are cheap enough, and they have the incredible matchup of playing houston, who has an all time historically bad run defense this year, they had 43 touches combined last week, and I can see that or more this week, but even if it's less, they'll be more efficient touches too. McLaurin seems too cheap too with his usage post Wentz-Era. He has a 32% target share in heinickes 4 starts, averaging 9 targets a game with a good aDOT/r of 10.4, he's the only receiver I'd want. I guess Thomas is cheap enough, he is seeing 70%+ snaps and is almost priced at the floor, not sure I'll have much of him.
Pierce seems to expensive for this type of matchup. Washington has done well vs the RB. I'll say there's no denying his volume, and 6 of his last 7 games he's totaled more than 100 yards, with some PPR floor, but I'll look elsewhere. I'll pass at TE, 3 targets seems to be the ceiling, but they play at least 2 a game. At WR, we have an insanely cheap WR in Collins, the guy play his 2nd highest snap count of the year at 78%, coming off an injury, which also led the team last week, to go along with 10 targets, 3 in the RZ, and has an aDOT/r of 11.6 on the season, I told my self before he season that a Mills+Collins stack would win a week... not saying its the week, but ya never know! Cooks is fine, but I don't get how you can pay up for him with collins sitting there. Moore is a straight heave off the collins ownership to create leverage, but I won't be doing it.

4PMs/Main Slate

LVR/DEN


Raiders have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jacobs has the best MS ALY push.
Russ has a good ASR matchup.
Raiders TTR is T-17th.
Broncos TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 7th overall, 6th in MS.

- Injuries - LVR - On D, S Deablo out for 2nd week, CB Hobbs out for 5th week. On O, Obviously no TE Waller/WR Renfrow, Adams is Q.
- DEN - On D, LB Griffith is out for 2nd week, CB Williams is out. On OL, Cushenberry is out still, 7th man Turner is out, and Glasgow is Q. On O, both WR Hamler/Jeudy are out, Hinton is Q.

- You can't deny Jacob's opportunities. Since Week 3, he was averaging 4.5 targets a game, and in his first game without renfrow AND waller, he got to 8 targets (plus 21 rush attempts)..... I think he's script proof on sunday, and can definitely be considered.... after all, he does have the best ALY push too for the week too. I've been a mack hollins truther, and he did have 6 targets last week, but I can't deal with the dud after dud, I guess he's a buy low candidate and a pivot off the popular low priced options, but I can't do it. Adams on the other hand, was already a target share monster on this offense at over 30%, last week he hit 14 targets without the 2 mentioned above, which totaled for 37% target share. You're paying a premium, but him/jefferson just have tremendous upside week to week (I guess Diggs/Lamb now too --- for this slate),
We are not taking a broncos RB, moving along. Dulchich has a sexy aDOT for a TE at 13.5, in a limited sample size though... however he now benefits from no Juedy/Hamler, and possibly Hinton, and he's in a sexy matchup, Last week he hit his season high of 89% of snaps, which is as high as the best of the bunch. I'm in. At WR, I'm not chasing virgil, even if hinton is out, nor cleveland (both played the same amount of snaps at like 30%), if Hinton is in, I have interest, he was an everydown WR last week, and is priced very low, in an even better matchup. Then we get to mr. obvious, Courtland Sutton. Again, the passing game is in a great spot this week, and Sutton is coming off an 11 target game, he is quietly averaging 8+ targets a game with a good aDOT/r of 10.4, and has the benefit of more project volume.... sign me up.

DAL/MIN

Cowboys have a meh P/RB matchup.
Vikes have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Dak has a good ASR matchup.
Cousins has a bad ASR matchup.
Cowboys TTR is 5th.
Vikings TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is 1st overall/MS. OURank is 3rd.

- Injuries - DAL - On D, CB Lewis is out for 3rd week, ton of Q's. On O, Zeke is Q.
- MIN - On D, DT Tomlinson out for 3rd week, CB Evans is out, CB Dantzler is out, LB Smith is Q.

- Man o man, if Zeke is out, Pollard of course becomes a volume boosted option, otherwise I may pass. In the 2 games without Zeke he's averaging 21.5 opps. and 137.5 yards, 3.5 targets, and that was with one game being a big blow out. The real story here, is do you just hit the lock button on Lamb, and differentiate elsewhere? In the last 3 games with Dak, he has a great 29.5% target share, equating too 9+ targets a game/1 RZ target/g , with a good 11.6 aDOT/r, and is going up against a defense missing its slot corner. I know the industry is talking about him, so an ownership discussion/pviot is what you have to decide. I think Noah brown is the smarter pivot off of him over gallup, if you go that way. Schultz is the 4th most expensive TE on the slate, but he's also kind of cheap. In those 3 games with Dak, he's averaging almost 7 targets a game, which is just over 20% target share, and he has slowly seen his snap count rise since returning from the PCL? injury.... he's definitely a step above the bottom dwellers, and just below the alphas.
To Be Continued

CIN/PIT

Bengals have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pickett? has a great ASR matchup. Najee? has a meh ALY push.
Bengals TTR is T-9th.
Steelers TTR is T-19th.
Pace of play is 8th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is 9th.

- Injuries - CIN - On D, S Hill is out, DT Tupou out for 4th week, CB Awuzie out for 2nd week, CB Flowers is Q. On O, no WR Chase still.
- PIT - On D, CB Witherspoon out for 2nd week.

- There's no denying Mixon's numbers, he is coming of a 27 opportunities game with 200+ yards and 5 TDs. His receiving floor all year has been 3 targets, and he's averaging 5.5~/g, which is really good. His matchup is obviously tougher this week, and he gets a relatively healthy Pitt D again w/o chase... I'll probably limit my exposure to this offense as a whole. In the 2 games w/o Chase, Higgins/Boyd are seeing a combined 39% target share... which I thought would have been higher, but then you realize one of the games is the blowout win vs Carolina. Problem is their pricepoint isn't the greatest, I'd rather pay for lamb/st.brown then go to higgins, so again, idk how much I like this offense. Hurst is a good floor option, but he's in Dulcichs price point, and I'll have more of him.
Najee is coming off a 21 opp. game while playing just 60% of snaps. I guess he's still cheap at 5.5K and you could do worse, but idk if I'll have him. He'd strictly be a pivot off washington RBs, but obviously there in a dream matchup. I still think Diontae is the guy to own in this offense, and the salaries of him and pickens are starting to get close. I can't justify the other way. Friermuth is in the schultz range, and he's quietly had 3 straight 7 target minimum games, and has actually only been held under 7 targets in 2 games, and I think he got hurt in one of them, I think he's a pivot option of schultz solely though.
 
Last edited:

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Been digging through the numbers all morning.

@B.A.R. Kmet again?

yds is lined @27.5. yds over+ td scored is +510 I may bite

I like his yards for sure. Atl been gashed by te’s, oddly they have only given up 1 td all year but with the numbers being put up you wouldn’t think that would continue.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I dunno if this fits as a road game now that they playing in Detroit but I gotta do what I always do and fade cooper/play peoples-Jones when browns away from home. Cooper has continued the same trend as in Dallas, disappears on the road and shows up at home. Love peoples-Jones over 47.5 rec yards.
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
B. Skowronek Rec Yds O35.5 -105 2.1-2
J. Taylor Rush&Rec Yds O111.5 -115 2.3-2
B. Robinson Jr. Rush Yds O63.5 -120 2.4-2
L. Cager Rec Yds O12.5 -110 2.2-2
T. Allgeier Rush Yds O34.5 -110 2.2-2

K. Drake Rush Yds O68.5 -115 1.15-1
(can't believe I'm taking a balty RB)
R. Stevenson Receptions O3.5 +110 1-1.1
D. Pierce Rush Yds U80.5 -115 1.15-1
S. Diggs Rec Yds O90.5 -125 1.25-1
D. Peoples-Jones Rec Yds O44.5 -120 1.2-1
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
also love Schultz ov 41.5, minny plays a perfect d for the te to get a lot of work.

Mixon ov 24.5 rec yards, burrow gonna have to get it out quick with watt back, he had 7 catches for 61 in the week 1 meeting and now no chase, this a no brainer for me.

W you on nico collins, used him a lot and played over 41.5.

Danny dimes ov 36.5 rush. Im sure giants watched the film of fields running all over lions last week. Windy, think they gonna do lot of zone read here.

I think colts keep pounding Taylor w Saturday coaching, you can run on Philly. 87.5 rush used to be considered crazy low for this guy and think he will look like that dude rest the year.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Kinda wish I woulda went rush and rec like you did on Taylor, im with you I love colts today but this would protect if colts have to throw late. Good move I think.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Played Chubb ov 75.5 rush also but not sure how great I feel bout it, just seemed really low for him. They could fall way behind but even then I doubt they totally go away from him.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Losing Taylor Rush yards was painful but hitting peoples-Jones and Collins on last garbage time drives was nice. Lol
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Any clue who the running back of choice for kc will be? I hate when a week gets wasted with a guessing game at running back up against chargers awful run d. I guess the bright side it keeps the numbers lower, I just hate playing a back and turns out a totally different guy gets the carries! Is CEH out? If pecheco gets the amount of touches he got last week he should cash over 54.5 easy, but will he? The only other back the have listed for kc is McKinnon ov 9.5 yards, that tempting! Lol
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Think I’ll just avoid kc backs, I know if I play Pacheco over CEH will dominate the touches. I do like Toney ov 50.5 rec.

Mixon cashed his receiving yards already. Need Shultz to get going.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Super glad I played Dameon Pierce rush yards over. Only missed that by like 70 or so

I played Chubb, not sure if he even ended w positive, lol. I rather lose like that than Fuckinh Taylor getting like 60 yards on 1st drive or 2 and coming up 3 yards short on a number in the 80s! that stings way more. I can laugh off ones that were just wrong.
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Sorry, behind guys, but playing these.

D. Hopkins Receptions O6.5 +110 2-2.2
T. McBride Rec Yards O22.5 -115 2.3-2

I'm looking for a short elijah mitchell line but can't find it.
 
Top