Bowl Adds:
Air Force +1.5 (-105)
UCLA +2 (-105)
Minnesota -5 (-105)
Iowa State +1.5 (-107) 1.5x
Oklahoma -5 (-105)
Air Force +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Love this pick as my spreadsheet LIGHTS up in MOST categories in favor of Air Force. The only reason it’s not a 2 unit pick, is the discrepancy in SOS as Air Force’s is quite substantially weaker than Louisville's but none-the-less we’ll fire away for 1 unit. Let’s start with PFF, which shows advantages for Air Force who ranks 24th in the run, and 2nd in run-blocking, a huge mismatch against Louisville's 111th ranked run defense. The offensive/defensive line yards show the same mismatch, as Air Force’’s offensive line, who ranks in the top 15% of most categories should run all day against Louisville's defensive line that ranks in bottom 15% of most categories and have allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the season ranking #90th. They are outranked by an average of 51 ranks across all categories with especially large mismatches on passing downs as Air Force ranks 16th and Louisville's defensive line has been horrible in those situations ranking 120th. The opportunity rate and stuff ranking mismatch show the Air Force should be able to get 3-4 yards anytime they want. Air Force’s defensive line also outranks Louisville's offensive line by an average of 5 ranks across all categories. Air Force’s defensive line has been stout, ranking #10 in yards per carry allowed, 6th in sack %, and their secondary even ranks 6th in completion % allowed. FEI shows HUGE advantages to Air Force as well with Air Force outranking Louisville by an average of 60 ranks in FEI categories on offense and on defense Air Force outranks them by an average of 9 ranks. Air Force is the much more disciplined team as they rank #9th in penalties per play where Louisville ranks #81st. Air Force are also the much more sound tacklers ranking 6th in tackling opposed to Louisville's 67th. I love getting a “pick-em” with this many number advantages to the smaller school.
UCLA +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This should be a fun matchup in PAC 12 vs ACC. DTR really looked good towards the end of the season when he was getting healthy and has been hitting the deep ball in stride with his receivers lately, really opening up this Chip Kelly offense. His abilities combined with Charbonnet’s make this offense one of the better ones in the country. Granted NC State’s numbers are much better this season, especially on defense Sagarin shows UCLA had a much more difficult road as NC State ranks 64th in SOS scales. NC State has yet to see an offense this explosive so I think they will struggle against a UCLA offensive line that ranks 8th in line yards, 12th in opportunity rank and 10th in stuff rankings. FEI numbers agree and have UCLA’s offense as a Top 15 in almost every efficiency category. Although the ACC was 2-0 against PAC 12 opponents last year, for the past decade PAC 12 has methodically beat-down the ACC going 21-3 since the 2010’s. I think this is another one where the PAC 12 is being undervalued.
Minnesota -5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I like how Minnesota matches up against this West Virginia team as they are well rounded on both sides of the ball. WVU prefers to throw and Minnesota’s secondary is it’s biggest strength as it ranks 35th in PFF in coverage, 22nd in opponent yards per pass, 7th in completion % allowed, and 26th in defensive passing efficiency defense. Although their run-defense ranks 68th in PFF, they have only allowed opponents to run for 3.5 yards per carry on the season (ranking 14th). West Virginia will be without their lead back, Leddie Brown who accounted for 1065 rushing yards, and 217 receiving yards. Minnesota is a run first team and WVU has allowed opponents to rush for 4.1 yards per carry against them in the season (ranking 59th). The biggest mismatches in this game on paper though are in the FEI efficiency numbers. On defense, Minnesota’s FEI numbers are in the Top 15 of almost every category, leaving them with a huge 57 rank average differential across all categories as WVU offense is below average and ranks 73rd in OFEI, 73rd in ODE, 7rd in OPD, 71st in OAY, and 83rd in OPP. On Offense Minnesota still out ranks WVU in every category except for 2, and by an average of 22 ranks across all categories. PJ Fleck also just sniped Kirk Ciarrocca to be their offensive coordinator next season, who was an offensive analyst for West Virginia this season so you know he’s going to be shelling out some secrets, although he won’t be coaching in this bowl game. With starting QB Tanner Morgan set to return for a sixth season next year, this Minnesota team will look to go out with a bang after a below average season and a bad loss to Bowling Green early on.
Iowa State +1.5 (-107) Risking 1.6 units to win 1.5 units
This will be a great defensive battle to watch as both teams' strengths are their defenses. Not only does Iowa State have strong advantages in PFF but they’ve also had a much tougher schedule (since Clemson is ACC) and Sagarin SOS ranks agree as Iowa State ranks 23rd in SOS and Clemson ranks 56th. Although by the numbers, Clemson has the better defense, PFF shows much bigger advantages on Iowa State’s defensive side of the ball as Clemson’s offense has been mostly unproductive this season. Iowa State’s defense outranks Clemson’s offense by an average of 40 ranks across all positional matchups and Clemson’s defense only outranks Iowa State’s offense by an average of 17 ranks. Clemson’s offense ranks 116th in completion % and 118th in yards per pass. DJ Uiagalelei ranks 110th in PFF in overall QB ratings, a huge difference from Brock Purdy who ranks 36th overall. Brock Purdy has started now for 4 years and is as experienced as they come. Clemson has relied on their running game to open up their offense but this Iowa State defense is very stout and ranked 36th in opponent yards per rush allowed. Clemson has a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, including to it’s two top receiving targets to an already thin position for them without any stand-out players. I expect Iowa State to pull off the big upset in what has been a let-down season for both teams.This is my biggest play of the bowl season so far at 1.5x units.
Oklahoma -5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Both coaches have departed these two teams for the Bowl game but I have a big advantage to Oklahoma for the iterm selection as they have brought back Bob Stoops to coach in this bowl game where Oregon has simply promoted their unheard of WR coach, McClendon. The numbers show HUGE advantages to Oklahoma on BOTH sides of the ball as well. On offense, Oregon has struggled, ranking 81st overall, 95th in passing, 100th in receiving, and 43rd in rushing. Oklahoma’s defense, although hasn’t been great, have excelled in the run game, ranking 32nd, and in pass-rushing where they rank 5th overall, and significantly out-rank Oregon who ranks 83rd in pass blocking. On defense, Oregon’s PFF numbers are piss-poor as well as they rank 74th overall, 101st in coverage and 61st against the run. Oklahoma prefers to pass and are one of the best in the nation ranking 6th in passing and 24th in receiving. They should put up huge numbers against this secondary. We also have a strong tackling advantage and special teams as Oregon ranks 124th in tackling and 128th in special teams where Oklahoma is middle-of-the-pack in both categories. You can really judge a defense by how they perform on 3rd down and the red zone, two categories where Oregon’s defense really struggles ranking #117th in 3rd down conv% allowed and 106th in RZ scoring % allowed. Oregon’s offense heavily relies on it’s run game which is the biggest strength of this OU defense who ranks 32nd against the run according to PFF. I think Oklahoma run’s away with this one.