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Clippers/Pistons, Rockets/Bulls, Pacers/Pelicans Parlay Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
NBA Parlay for Monday's Slate (+612) features the Clippers, Rockets, and Pacers

Best Bet: Parlay Clippers -5 at -105, Rockets +8 at -110, Pacers +6 at -110 at +612 odds with BetOnline

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Detroit Pistons
Monday, December 26, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit

Detroit's Defense By The Numbers

When I say mention Detroit's "defense," I'm obviously using the term lightly, because the Pistons don't really play defense.

They own the second-worst defensive rating, concede the second-most points per game, and allow the third-highest shooting percentage.

Their most recent results reflect what I mean: they've allowed more than 120 points in four of their last five games.

In the one exception, they lost 113-93 in a game where they did not score enough points to push their opponent, Philadelphia, to score more points.

It's not like the Pistons are simply facing offensive juggernauts, either.

Their most recent opponent, Atlanta, ranks just outside the top 10 in scoring.

While the Hawks average 114.6 points per game, they scored 130 against Detroit.

More Details

There are many specific problems in play: the Pistons often allow opponents to accrue second-chance points, which means that they can struggle to shoot efficiently but still easily score a lot of points.

Detroit, moreover, defends poorly in transition, which means that opponents score many quick baskets.

In the half-court, the Pistons have deviated somewhat from their switch-heavy approach and are struggling to execute their preferred alternatives in order to defend ball screens.

The upshot of these struggles it that, no matter their opponent, one can expect the Pistons to give up a lot of points.

Piston opponents' ability to achieve high scoring outputs with regularity makes it easier for them to cover the spread when they're favored. They have a higher margin of error in the sense that they can defend somewhat poorly and still stand a good chance of covering.

Clipper Motivation

This is a good situational spot for the Clippers because they are angry and will be extra motivated tonight.

They had a 20-point lead in their last game, against Philadelphia, which they blew.

I find -- across all major sports, in fact -- that favored teams are likelier to beat the underdog by larger margins in the game following such a large disappointment.

Houston Rockets vs. Chicago Bulls
Monday, December 26, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago

Key Trend

Entering tonight's game, Houston enjoys a 4-0 ATS run when dogged by six or more points,

This trend indicates the extent to which the Rockets can remain competitive against teams that are expected to beat them handily.

Of course, their recent wins over Phoenix and Milwaukee do the most to underscore this point.

Houston can be this competitive because it does some things better than every other NBA team.

Most prominently, the Rockets are a menace on the offensive glass -- they lead the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage.

Their ability to secure second-chance points creates a margin of error for their shooters -- the Rockets can be inefficient but still score.

Chicago's Offensive Struggles

While the Rockets can stay competitive with heavy favorites, Chicago is poorly equipped to cover large spreads.

One naturally wants a heavy favorite to be able to score easily -- so that it scores enough points to cover the spread.

But the Bulls own the 10th-worst offensive rating.

Problematically, they are built to rely a lot on the mid-range instead of relying on threes like modern teams tend to do.

Outside of their shooting guard, they have failed to surround DeMar DeRozan with shooters.

Chicago's Vulnerable Defense

The Bulls built their defense on the hope that Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball would lock down the opponent's top-two players (excepting the opponent's center, of course).

But injuries derailed this hope.

What is especially problematic for tonight is Chicago's vulnerable perimeter defense, which is hurt by ball-screen coverage issues and communication mishaps.

Chicago allows the second-highest frequency of open three-point attempts, which spells trouble against a Rocket offense that likes to shoot a lot of threes.

Indiana Pacers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, December 26, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans

New Orleans' Awful Perimeter Defense

The Pelicans do an awful job of defending the perimeter.

They allow the fourth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts, the sixth-highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts, and the fourth-highest average of three-point attempts per game.

These stats indicate that, on defense, they contest and devote insufficient attention to the perimeter.

While you may have heard that the Pelicans were looking good defensively in the beginning of the month, they have recently suffered blowouts to, you guessed it, teams that love to shoot threes.

Pacer Offense

Indiana's offense is built to succeed tonight because the Pacers are another such team -- they love to shoot threes; they attempt the fourth-most threes per game.

Look out for Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, two high-volume shooters who convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.

Pacer Defense

On offense, New Orleans wants to attack the basket.

The Pelicans are built to try to maximize pressure on the opposing rim.

They are therefore built to succeed against defenses that lack rim protection.

But the Pacers are just the team that they do not want to face.

Indiana allows the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.

To this end, they rely especially on shot-blocking menace Myles Turner.
 
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