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CFL Syndicate 2022

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Part of the success Montreal has been their opponents bad play. Hamilton has a defense that is going to cause them difficulty.

On one hand Hamilton being at or above 50 is an under and Montreal at or below 48 is an over.

Listing Montreal total lines this season:
game 1: @ CGY 49.5 over
game 2 @ TOR 50 under
game 3 Sask 44 over
game 4 @ Sask 46 over
game 5 EDM 48.5 over
game 6 @ OTT 48 over


We are at game 7 this week and the last 2 opponents were not going to keep them under control. Before that two low lines with Saskatchewan. Of the last 4 games in my opinion this could be the most difficult game for a lot of Montreal points. An overwhelming data history supports an under. In my opinion 49.5 is a fair line and 52 and more supports a bigger under play.
 
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Hulu

#3DownNation
MTL @ HAM -3 49.5
BC @SSK +1.5 49
WPG @CAL -1 46
OTT @ TOR -5 47.5

Books are still setting totals too low IMO when the avg score has been just over 50
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
MTL @ HAM -3 49.5
BC @SSK +1.5 49
WPG @CAL -1 46
OTT @ TOR -5 47.5

Books are still setting totals too low IMO when the avg score has been just over 50
Now we have to figure out if the higher scoring was due to east vs west matchups.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
In non-division games the overs are 11-5

In division games the overs are 5-6

In division games with a total of >=48.5 the overs are 1-6

That leaves division games with totals<=48 the totals are 4-0

Lastly ALL division games played from and including 2017 Overs are 72-97 42.6%
 
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Hulu

#3DownNation
Results after week 7...

Sides 12-6 +6.20*
Totals 6-7 -2.175*
Live/2H 5-7 -4.245*
Parlays 0-2 -1.50*
Props 1-0 +0.25*


Overall 24-22 -1.47*

1/3 of the year over and I'm basically a coin flip so far despite the hot start. Turning it around this week.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
These games are so difficult. Not enough points for a back door. These are the type of games that give me difficulty.

As of right now if I had to make a play I would select Ottawa+5 but I think I can do better with a live line. Argo's almost lost last week. Okay fine it was because of special teams and errors and good fortune. Argos do suck as a home chalk and have Hamilton on deck.

The data supports my thinking here: Argos as a home favorite with a lower line than >-7 and playing Hamilton the next week are deck are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Its terrible that they are playing Ottawa but ehh its the only dog i sorta like.

Since 2008 the Argos as a home favorite of >-6 points are 12-28-1 ATS and below .500 winning those games SU 20-21. The money line fading the Argos is a strong ROI,

The Argos are off a Win so that makes this trend 5-16 ATS and 7-14 SU

Its a terrible spot for the Argos but is Ottawa going to win. Im gambling here
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
These games are so difficult. Not enough points for a back door. These are the type of games that give me difficulty.

As of right now if I had to make a play I would select Ottawa+5 but I think I can do better with a live line. Argo's almost lost last week. Okay fine it was because of special teams and errors and good fortune. Argos do suck as a home chalk and have Hamilton on deck.

The data supports my thinking here: Argos as a home favorite with a lower line than >-7 and playing Hamilton the next week are deck are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Its terrible that they are playing Ottawa but ehh its the only dog i sorta like.

Since 2008 the Argos as a home favorite of >-6 points are 12-28-1 ATS and below .500 winning those games SU 20-21. The money line fading the Argos is a strong ROI,

The Argos are off a Win so that makes this trend 5-16 ATS and 7-14 SU

Its a terrible spot for the Argos but is Ottawa going to win. Im gambling here

I agree with you on Ottawa. It briefly hit +6 on Pinnacle and I almost bet it but now its back to 5. Toronto is good at home but they've been so sloppy I wouldn't trust them to get big margin.

I know there's a strong trend in the NFL that winless teams after week 6 or so are very good bets ATS. Can you look up if the same applies in the CFL?

I also kind of like Montreal at +3 I think these teams are fairly even. But I would like at least +3.5 or better and I don't think we will see that.
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
One counterpoint on Ottawa...if they start Caleb Evans, which they likely will, I won't touch them. He has taken a step forward in year 2 but he's still not close to a good qb in my opinion. Serviceable at best. He can't throw a deep ball to save his life. Now, if they start Arbuckle, I will take another look. He is not elite but he's a capable starter with experience.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
I will post what you asked here
D and wins=0 and week>7 3-3 ATS

any winless dog Before week 6... 79-39 ATS so its a huge difference when there is uncertainty on which team is terrible. after week 7 its much more clear and less variance. It has been determined Ottawa isnt good. we know this. We also know as you cited Toronto isnt very worthy of backing.

We dont really know who is starting at QB but I expect Ottawa to pull Evans if he is that bad again.

This week doesnt compare to last week as far as earning potential. I have not made a wager except for my posted under tonight.

Montreal is a possibility for me as well, but +3 i can wait for better during the game or pass.

I cant guess on your games so I will be rooting for you.

There are 2 things i like about Winnipeg. First they are the best team for a long time running. Being undefeated at this point and on the road history say these teams are 1-2 so there is nothing to go on there in my opinion. The other thing i like about Winnipeg is Calgary has play all the crap teams so far: MTL HAM EDM EDM and WPG. I excluded WPG because its head to head. Side note CGY has had 2 byes already. WPG will get 3 byes this season all after week 10


Best Wishes
 
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Hulu

#3DownNation
I will post what you asked here
D and wins=0 and week>7 3-3 ATS

any winless dog Before week 6... 79-39 ATS so its a huge difference when there is uncertainty on which team is terrible. after week 7 its much more clear and less variance. It has been determined Ottawa isnt good. we know this. We also know as you cited Toronto isnt very worthy of backing.

We dont really know who is starting at QB but I expect Ottawa to pull Evans if he is that bad again.

This week doesnt compare to last week as far as earning potential. I have not made a wager except for my posted under tonight.

Montreal is a possibility for me as well, but +3 i can wait for better during the game or pass.

I cant guess on your games so I will be rooting for you.

There are 2 things i like about Winnipeg. First they are the best team for a long time running. Being undefeated at this point and on the road history say these teams are 1-2 so there is nothing to go on there in my opinion. The other thing i like about Winnipeg is Calgary has play all the crap teams so far: MTL HAM EDM EDM and WPG. I excluded WPG because its head to head. Side note CGY has had 2 byes already. WPG will get 3 byes this season all after week 10


Best Wishes
You're right...not a lot of potential this week. The lines have barely moved which indicates they are pretty much where they should be.

The only bet I really like this week is BC.

Best to wait for live opportunities
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
Sorry spottie...I have to do it. We are bound to conflict a few times this season and this is one of em.

1* MTL / HAM over 48.5 -110
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
I dont take it personal. its a 2 sided market. win or lose be cool to each other.

The over might be due on Thursdays. One data for Thursday games are 4-13 and the other is 7-18.
 
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JohnnyGambler

Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Winnipeg is running on fumes IMO. They easily could have lost to CGY two weeks ago, remember the CGY player caught the game tying TD but kicked it loose when he fell, it hit off his arm and WPG caught it for a miraculous INT.

Last week they were pretty well dominated by EDM but EDM kept shooting themselves in the foot. EDM was +8 first downs, +15 mins TOP, and almost +100 yards. If not for the busted 80 yard TD on Duron Carter, the Bombers wouldn't have even cracked 200 yards of offense.

Ellingson out again. Adubusi who has given them a spark the last two weeks is out. Jeffcoat out again.

Calgary home, rested, and off a bye. I think they knock the shit out of the Bombers this week.

CGY +1.5 is by far my biggest play this year.
 

JohnnyGambler

Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Ottawa is 0-6 but 5 losses have been by one possession. They really aren't 0-6 bad. A couple breaks and they could have 2-3 wins.

Toronto won last week against half of a team and the week before on a miracle Pick 6.

Ottawa +5 all day for me.
 

Vapster

Awesome1#1
I'm Going By The Numbers...Sometimes, When I Don't Know What To Do?! I Let The Numbers Speak To Me.

BC 9-2 OVER Last 11.
Riders OVER 4-1 Last 5 Games.
BC 1-7 ATS Last 8 meetings.
6-0 OVER BC Last 6 VS West Division.
Riders 9-2 ATS Last 11 Friday Games (They Must LOVE Friday's! IDK!)

Riders Pk +100

OVER 49 -103

:shake:
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
Winnipeg is running on fumes IMO. They easily could have lost to CGY two weeks ago, remember the CGY player caught the game tying TD but kicked it loose when he fell, it hit off his arm and WPG caught it for a miraculous INT.

Last week they were pretty well dominated by EDM but EDM kept shooting themselves in the foot. EDM was +8 first downs, +15 mins TOP, and almost +100 yards. If not for the busted 80 yard TD on Duron Carter, the Bombers wouldn't have even cracked 200 yards of offense.

Ellingson out again. Adubusi who has given them a spark the last two weeks is out. Jeffcoat out again.

Calgary home, rested, and off a bye. I think they knock the shit out of the Bombers this week.

CGY +1.5 is by far my biggest play this year.
I agree. I took wpg early because I thought Calgary's covid situation might snowball like Sask's did the week before but they got it under control quick and look to be completely healthy. Winnipeg gets Demski back but I don't think that will be enough.

I'll probably buy out of wpg and join you.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
On my radar this week is Hamilton Montreal and over Montreal. Maybe a slight lean to Ottawa but I dont know if I can stomach that play without some sort of ridiculous line. On the other hand I didnt like Ottawa until game day last week. Edmonton is a possibility too depends on a line as well. Double digits is needed.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Is elks at lions gonna be biggest spread of the year?



Bombers are still top team, but lions offense is another level, they have 7 points less than bombers in 2 less games



Elks have worst O and D in the league, point differential of -113
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
No major books opened today as far as I can see but some lookahead lines are out. These may or may not be close to the actual openers but give something to discuss anyway...

WPG @ MTL +6 47.5
CAL @ OTT +5 52.5
HAM @ TOR -1 44.5
EDM @ BC -11.5 52.5
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
Montreal is interesting but fading Winnipeg has not done much for me this year. Still though, their offense has had a lot of mediocre games and they are in a natural letdown spot after beating (and winning the season series against) Calgary. Not to mention its a 5 day week with travel while the ALs have 7 days. Also the ALs getting Chris Ackie back which was really hurting them.

Ottawa getting 5 at home is interesting but which way do they go after getting that winless simian off their back? Do they use it as a springboard or do they relax? Both teams on short weeks in this one.

I was hoping Toronto might just be a home dog.

Edmonton is getting some defensive pieces back. This might be a sneaky under game.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
I feel like I like Ottawa every week

But that seems like a lot at home for a team that should have a few more wins, but like you say how they react after a huge win
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
Results after week 8...

Sides 15-7 +8.20*
Totals 6-8 -3.275*
Live/2H 6-8 -4.32*
Parlays 0-2 -1.50*
Props 1-0 +0.25*


Overall 28-25 -0.645*

4-3 for a small profit. Been doing great with the sides...totals have been befuddling this year.
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
I feel like I like Ottawa every week

But that seems like a lot at home for a team that should have a few more wins, but like you say how they react after a huge win
I feel the same way...they just look like value week in and week out. Even with Masoli out, Evans has really stepped up in year 2. He doesn't have all the throws but he is making reads and directing the offense in a way he just couldn't last year.

If their defense can hold Calgary under 30, I think they can stay in it.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
I feel the same way...they just look like value week in and week out. Even with Masoli out, Evans has really stepped up in year 2. He doesn't have all the throws but he is making reads and directing the offense in a way he just couldn't last year.

If their defense can hold Calgary under 30, I think they can stay in it.
They are just a professional team who are well coached

They lack a few blue chip guys to be at the next level

They always stay in the game, even if they go down their ability to comeback is impressive
 

Hulu

#3DownNation
They always stay in the game, even if they go down their ability to comeback is impressive
I think this is the key. Any of those games they were down they couldve just thrown in the towel but they fought back. Thats what makes me feel like they haven't given up on their season even though they lost their meal ticket.
 
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