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CFL Syndicate 2021

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#3DownNation
Continuing to shoot myself in the foot...I'll tally up the record later.

For week 14...

1* Hamilton -6.5 -110

I see 2 teams headed in opposite directions here. BC on their 3rd straight road game and saw their playoff chances take a serious blow last week losing in OT to the Argos. I think that was the back breaker and I'm not sure they get up for this game at all. Meanwhile Hamilton seems to have their OL at least somewhat solidified with Van Zeyl returning from injury and Vornkahl installed at LT. The defense is already good and the offense is starting to find its form.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Continuing to shoot myself in the foot...I'll tally up the record later.

For week 14...

1* Hamilton -6.5 -110

I see 2 teams headed in opposite directions here. BC on their 3rd straight road game and saw their playoff chances take a serious blow last week losing in OT to the Argos. I think that was the back breaker and I'm not sure they get up for this game at all. Meanwhile Hamilton seems to have their OL at least somewhat solidified with Van Zeyl returning from injury and Vornkahl installed at LT. The defense is already good and the offense is starting to find its form.
Ya, big letdown expected after the argos loss

We've been saying hamilton would surge later since august and I think it's coming now

Reilly in the 2nd half last week is stuck in my mind too, hes never really struggled in weather, so i wonder if he picked up a knock
 

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#3DownNation
1* Saskatchewan -6 -110

How can any team not named Ottawa be less than a TD favourite against Edmonton? The Elks have no home field advantage and have lost something like 9 straight there. The organization is in disarray and I don't see any reason for them to be competitive here. I doubt Nick Arbuckle is ready to start and even if he does he won't be able to do much behind this shitty line and with so little time to learn the offense system (assuming there is one). If its Cornelius, he's shown occassional flashes of competence but not enough of them to string together a win. Anything under a TD here is money IMO
 

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#3DownNation
Ya, big letdown expected after the argos loss

We've been saying hamilton would surge later since august and I think it's coming now

Reilly in the 2nd half last week is stuck in my mind too, hes never really struggled in weather, so i wonder if he picked up a knock
Thats an interesting point. I was thinking the over looked interesting in Hamilton but you are right about Reilly just looking off in the 2H, at least until the tying drive.

If he's right, BC can score and Hamilton's offense is finding its way. 43.5 could be a really low total for this matchup.
 

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#3DownNation
I'm a sucker for punishment...

1* Montreal +12.5 -110

If I was willing to take Edmonton +14 (and win) @ Winnipeg, I should be willing to take Montreal at this number. And we have 2 teams with differing levels of motivation. Winnipeg has already wrapped up first in the west so they are playing out the string. Meanwhile Montreal is in the think of the east race and could finish anywhere from first to third. Hard to imaging Winnipeg finding max motivation to destroy anyone here.
 

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#3DownNation
1* BC / HAM over 43.5 -110

My models say 45.5 for this game but I think it could go even higher with this matchup.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after week 13

Sides 17-11 +1.03*
Totals 16-9 +5.115*
Live/2H 9-11 -2.785*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-3 -0.175*


Overall 45-37 +2.87*

Advantage over Close
Sides +37 or 1.3ppg
Totals +18 or 0.7ppg

2-3 on the week. Continuing to shoot myself with live bets.

Only 3 weeks to go in the regular season.
 

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#3DownNation
All week 14 plays already down...

1* Hamilton -6.5 -110
1* Saskatchewan -6 -110
1* Montreal +12.5 -110
1* BC / HAM over 43.5 -110
1* MTL / WPG under 45 -105
 

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#3DownNation
1* Saskatchewan -6 -110

How can any team not named Ottawa be less than a TD favourite against Edmonton? The Elks have no home field advantage and have lost something like 9 straight there. The organization is in disarray and I don't see any reason for them to be competitive here. I doubt Nick Arbuckle is ready to start and even if he does he won't be able to do much behind this shitty line and with so little time to learn the offense system (assuming there is one). If its Cornelius, he's shown occassional flashes of competence but not enough of them to string together a win. Anything under a TD here is money IMO
Adding to this. Full bet now as follows...

1*/.5* Saskatchewan -6 / -6.5 -110

 

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#3DownNation
Harris confirmed starting for Montreal.

Cornelius confirmed for Edmonton.

No surprises there.
 

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#3DownNation
Sask up to 7 now. Montreal down to 11.5 in some spots.

Surprisingly Hamilton line hasn't moved. I thought that would be the one to hop over 7 for sure.

Not that getting the best of the closing line has helped me any this year but it always feels nice.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after week 14

Sides 19-12 +1.93*
Totals 17-10 +5.065*
Live/2H 9-11 -2.785*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*


Overall 48-40 +3.42*

Advantage over Close
Sides +39 or 1.3ppg
Totals +19 or 0.7ppg

Still treading water.
 

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#3DownNation
1* Hamilton pk -110
Homer pick alert. Battle for first place in the east here and a smoother ride to the cup for the winner. Nothing special to handicap, I just think Hamilton is getting healthy and playing better football than Toronto who is dinged up. I'll be there rooting for my boys.

1* Calgary -2.5 -110
Although BC is mathematically alive, the last 2 losses broke their spirit and now they have to face a playoff-bound Stamps team off a bye. The stamps have made a statement by bringing back recent NFL cuts Tre Roberson (Bengals) and Reggie Begelton (Packers) and that statement is 'we ant to win it all this year. I think the team responds to this and beats up on BC. I made it 4.5.

 

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#3DownNation
Hamilton up to -2.5 now. Nice to see the market agrees with my take even if getting a better number than close hasn't done me a whole lot of good this year.
 

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#3DownNation
I am about 30 mins from the stadium right now and with 3 hours to go the wind is very gusty and some light rain is falling horizontally. I thought the total was about right before but with this weather, I am thinking we could have another 20-17 game on our hands.

0.5* HAM / TOR under 45 -105
 

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#3DownNation
Hamilton has crossed the 3 now. Love it. I am so jacked to be at this game.

Easily the biggest game of the year thus far.
 

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#3DownNation
I am about 30 mins from the stadium right now and with 3 hours to go the wind is very gusty and some light rain is falling horizontally. I thought the total was about right before but with this weather, I am thinking we could have another 20-17 game on our hands.

0.5* HAM / TOR under 45 -105
Upgrading this to full unit. It’s windy AF here
 

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#3DownNation
1* Hamilton -4.5 -110

The only game this week that has any playoff implications as Hamilton needs it to finish second and get a home playoff date. Sask is locked into second in the west and has nothing to play for. I think this is a comfortable win for the tabbies who need this due to them shitting the bed last week vs Toronto.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after week 14

Sides 20-13 +1.83*
Totals 18-10 +6.065*
Live/2H 9-12 -3.36*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*


Overall 50-42 +3.745*

Advantage over Close
Sides +43 or 1.3ppg
Totals +9.5 or 0.4ppg

2-2 last week for a small profit. Tough year continues.
 

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#3DownNation
I'll take a shot with this one as well.

1* EDM / BC under 48.5 -110

This game reminds me of Monty Python's 80s album "Contractual Obligation' where both teams are only here to fulfill their contract. Edmonton is playing 2 games 3 days apart due to a covid rescheduling earlier in the year and they are doing it for nothing more than the paycheck. Nathan Rourke is going to start for BC but I don't think he's going to lead the type of high-flying offense that Reilly is capable of. This looks like a 23-20 snore fest.
 

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#3DownNation
Its official...I'm crazy. I think Toronto's OL is getting blown up and the only k/p they brought into the game sucks so bad they're afraid to attempt a FG. The game clearly means a little more to the Elks and Cornelius is marginally better than Pipkin it appears.

0.5* Live Edmonton 2H +0.5 +100
 

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#3DownNation
Its official...I'm crazy. I think Toronto's OL is getting blown up and the only k/p they brought into the game sucks so bad they're afraid to attempt a FG. The game clearly means a little more to the Elks and Cornelius is marginally better than Pipkin it appears.

0.5* Live Edmonton 2H +0.5 +100
Adding another half unit @ -0.5. I like the contrast in what both coaches said in their halftime interviews
 

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#3DownNation
JFC Edmonton clearly the better team right now. 1 TD pass dropped, 1 TD pass intercepted.
 

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#3DownNation
1* Hamilton -4.5 -110

The only game this week that has any playoff implications as Hamilton needs it to finish second and get a home playoff date. Sask is locked into second in the west and has nothing to play for. I think this is a comfortable win for the tabbies who need this due to them shitting the bed last week vs Toronto.
No longer endorsing this one.

With Ottawa upsetting the ALs, this is no longer a must win game for the cats who now have second place locked up. I was hoping to buy off but the number crashed when it came back up so I'm stuck with this bet.

Fucking Alouettes had the game won until they gave up 2 fumbles by a backup RB that led to Ottawa TDs. Thats why you don't rest players in a must win game.
 

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#3DownNation
Edmonton's defense is so tired they are making Rourke look like a hero. Tons of time and wide open receivers everywhere. I was right that Edmonton is just playing it out but I was wrong about Rourke having a conservative gameplan. They are letting him air it out and he's going for it.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after week 16

Sides 21-13 +2.83*
Totals 18-11 +4.965*
Live/2H 13-12 -0.86*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*


Overall 55-42 +6.145*

Advantage over Close
Sides +44.5 or 1.3ppg
Totals +12 or 0.4ppg

5-1 on the week. Nice way to finish off the regular season. Bring on the playoffs...
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Results after week 16

Sides 21-13 +2.83*
Totals 18-11 +4.965*
Live/2H 13-12 -0.86*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*


Overall 55-42 +6.145*

Advantage over Close
Sides +44.5 or 1.3ppg
Totals +12 or 0.4ppg

5-1 on the week. Nice way to finish off the regular season. Bring on the playoffs...
Great work this year as always

Cant wait for next week

Getting over a point a game over close is incredible
 

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#3DownNation
Great work this year as always

Cant wait for next week

Getting over a point a game over close is incredible
Thanks. I appreciate the input all year.

Kinda killed my units with that 5* bet against David Watford but I would make it again.
 

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#3DownNation
When do you think we see lines?

I would hope no later than Tuesday.

I make Hamilton -4.5 but I have a suspicion that it could open at 3 or better. Anything under 3 and I'll hammer it.

I think Calgary can beat the Riders in Regina. They will be a good bet as a short dog. Anything over 3 would be a gift.

Probably no value in the totals. Both look like under games but these numbers will be low. 43/44 range
 

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#3DownNation
Semi-final look ahead lines out...

MTL @ HAM -3.5 47.5

CAL @ SSK -1.5 41.5


I took a tiny max bet on the under in Hamilton. I doubt the major books open with a number that high.

Otherwise the sides are sharper than I had figured. But these look aheads have been sharper than the major books openers all year so we'll see what we get from Pinny etc.
 

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#3DownNation
Current Grey Cup odds

WPG -120
TOR +525
HAM +585
SSK +720
CAL +825
MTL +1095

Any reason why I shouldn't hit WPG -120 right now? They have a one game path to the cup and they are just so far ahead of anyone else right now. The only thing I don't like is that they are in the same position as Hamilton was in 2019...largely unchallenged all year and haven't played a meaningful game in weeks. Thats a recipe for getting trucked by someone while you're looking in the mirror...just like Hamilton in 2019.

The way I see it, Calgary and Hamilton are the only teams that have a chance to beat Winnipeg and its a slim chance for both. They would have to play mistake-free in a way that they haven't all year. And are O'Shea's teams ever caught napping?

Have to sleep on it but the Bombers look mighty tempting at that number.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Current Grey Cup odds

WPG -120
TOR +525
HAM +585
SSK +720
CAL +825
MTL +1095

Any reason why I shouldn't hit WPG -120 right now? They have a one game path to the cup and they are just so far ahead of anyone else right now. The only thing I don't like is that they are in the same position as Hamilton was in 2019...largely unchallenged all year and haven't played a meaningful game in weeks. Thats a recipe for getting trucked by someone while you're looking in the mirror...just like Hamilton in 2019.

The way I see it, Calgary and Hamilton are the only teams that have a chance to beat Winnipeg and its a slim chance for both. They would have to play mistake-free in a way that they haven't all year. And are O'Shea's teams ever caught napping?

Have to sleep on it but the Bombers look mighty tempting at that number.
Calgary is what kinda scares me, just feel like I've seen this before with them

I do think winnipeg is far and away the best team, but if Calgary beats sasky I kinda like the stamps at the right number, at least to keep it close
 

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#3DownNation
Calgary is what kinda scares me, just feel like I've seen this before with them

I do think winnipeg is far and away the best team, but if Calgary beats sasky I kinda like the stamps at the right number, at least to keep it close
100% agree. The stamps have the key pieces in the right places to compete and adding Tre Roberson and Reggie Begelton down the stretch shows they are gunning for another cup. They came up short on a long FG that would've beaten WPG in WPG earlier this year. If they put it all together at the right time, they def have a shot.
 

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