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CFB Bowls and Playoffs

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Very good point on the TO's and that is my biggest worry as.t KY is -13 TO margin. However, I think Iowa is going to struggle to do much of anything offensively in this game and I basically think Petras is garbage. KY is just so much better offensively that I think their diversity in being a threat both running and passing will enable them to score enough here against a decent Iowa defense. Agree though that Iowa success all year has been predicated on positive TO margin, and if KY doesn't take care of the ball Iowa will be able to hang in there with their conservative game plan. I also lean strongly to the under in this game.

it would def suite me better for uk to turn it over a few times and get behind cause im on rodriguez under 87.5 yards, far as im concerned they can then start throwing and win!! lol. agree with ya bout iowa offense, im really just hoping they can do what they do and possess it enough to keep clock moving/shorten number of plays and win field position.. of course that prob my biggest concern with the rodriguiz under would be uk most likely having to drive the entire field which helps rack up yards. def seems like a under, kinda wish i woulda played that but im not going back out until they post props for the sugar and rose (man i hope they dont chicken out as they have other games props with lot of opt outs!).. gl today
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man

i really wish okie lite run blocking metrics were at least decent, id love to play warren over his total today, i think it short compared to the amount of work i expect him to get from everything i have read, the problem is i dunno if he can avg more than 4ypc? odds are he bust one if he gets 20+ carries tho.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
i really wish okie lite run blocking metrics were at least decent, id love to play warren over his total today, i think it short compared to the amount of work i expect him to get from everything i have read, the problem is i dunno if he can avg more than 4ypc? odds are he bust one if he gets 20+ carries tho.
That game has me perplexed a little bit overall. Freeman is being hailed as the next great Irish coach etc..but I felt like he kind of imposed his 3-3-5 stack defense on the existing personnel and that maybe it wasn't the best scheme for them overall as opposed to a standard 4 man front and more beef up front to stop the run. I'm not sure ND has really gotten used to his system and/or recruited to fit the LB and safety involvement needed to be good at that defense. Anyway, very impressed with OKST def and it is concerning to lose Knowles before bowl gm played, but they are elite at stopping the run 2.7 ypc and great at pressuring the QB w 54 sacks on the year. Coan is very immobile and it seems that the Irish don't have many targets to throw to w exception of fine TE. OKST though is TO prone and not really very efficient on offense, and I don't trust Sanders in the clutch. I lean towards OKST and under in this game, but OKST seems to be my achilles heel as they always shit the bed when I play them.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
That game has me perplexed a little bit overall. Freeman is being hailed as the next great Irish coach etc..but I felt like he kind of imposed his 3-3-5 stack defense on the existing personnel and that maybe it wasn't the best scheme for them overall as opposed to a standard 4 man front and more beef up front to stop the run. I'm not sure ND has really gotten used to his system and/or recruited to fit the LB and safety involvement needed to be good at that defense. Anyway, very impressed with OKST def and it is concerning to lose Knowles before bowl gm played, but they are elite at stopping the run 2.7 ypc and great at pressuring the QB w 54 sacks on the year. Coan is very immobile and it seems that the Irish don't have many targets to throw to w exception of fine TE. OKST though is TO prone and not really very efficient on offense, and I don't trust Sanders in the clutch. I lean towards OKST and under in this game, but OKST seems to be my achilles heel as they always shit the bed when I play them.

im in same boat as you far as side, i dont have a strong opinion in the slightest, the stuff you saying bout freeman makes me think that warren prop might be stronger than i thought.. i did make a pretty decent play on Coan ov 219.5 pass yards, agree irish not gonna have much success on the ground and i think this pass number kinda depressed thanks to okie lite facing a lot of teams that dont exactly excel in throwing it!! the times they have faced what i consider competent passing attacks the qb has been well into the 200s each time, their overall low number allowed comes from those teams who either poor passing teams or just run far more run heavy attacks. in a perfect world warren gets off early then ND has to throw a lot late!! loll
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Thanks for all the info in this thread Timmy. :shake:
Thanks Brass, I have always really enjoyed the bowls and it's traditional for me to just marathon watching them the week between Xmas and New Years. Always a lot of fun, though a lot harder to figure out now with all the opt outs, COVID etc. I hated to see Corral get hurt last night and hopefully it's just an ankle sprain on the roll up. Know he has been dealing with a bad wheel for a time now. Thank you for all your great work over the season. Kind of sad to see it all wind down, but I will focus on hoops now for a couple months.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
One thing that sticks in my mind about LSU is you look at their failure to run the ball most of the year at only 3.2 ypc, but against FLA their OL absolutely dominated and they ran it down FLA throat much to my chagrin as I was on FLA. Huge offensive line that finally got their shit together for one game lol...This one though seems like LSU is fucked with limited scholarship players, not much of an option at QB and a hodge podge staff. Seriously have to believe that KST is more motivated and LSU will be happy to just shut it down and let dickhead Kelly come in and try and clean up the mess.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Well trying to figure out what I want to do here and with the line being at 7.5 now makes me wish I had played it earlier or get a reasonable buy down to 7. Anyway I am going with an even $ tease on KST/ALA and if KST takes care of business I will have a potential decision on hedge etc. though I certainly like ALA plus the 9.

286 KST -1.5 and 288 ALA +9 Tease +100 1.5*
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man

Alabama’s defense has problem to solve in Georgia’s Brock Bowers​

Alabama’s defense has problem to solve in Brock Bowers

his receiving total in this game one the tougher ones for me to figure out cause im not sure if i want to play a bigger number with bama seeing him once already? still feel like 66.5 a tad low but them again bama could make a way bigger effort to take him away which should open up others kinda the way it went early on in the ND/okie st game where irish beast te got a ton of attention early on and it freed up other guys, he did eventually get his numbers in the 2nd half as nd did a great job making cowboys pay early on for the extra attention, can uga do that? i dunno.. pickens number at 30.5 does seem really short and kinda leaning uga backs in the passing game as well if i think bowers gets extra attention..

another thing im super interested in is bama te's. im assuming there gonna be adjustments in this game, on uga side i think they will def bring and get more pressure, if im bama my counter to that would be getting both te's involved and hitting them quickly in the voids that should be left be the blitzing lb's, both their totals are super low to the point they could easily hit their numbers with one and def with 2 catches!! similarly thinking i prefer robinson jr receiving total to his rush in this game.
 

booksbestfriend

On Johnny's Shitlist
his receiving total in this game one the tougher ones for me to figure out cause im not sure if i want to play a bigger number with bama seeing him once already? still feel like 66.5 a tad low but them again bama could make a way bigger effort to take him away which should open up others kinda the way it went early on in the ND/okie st game where irish beast te got a ton of attention early on and it freed up other guys, he did eventually get his numbers in the 2nd half as nd did a great job making cowboys pay early on for the extra attention, can uga do that? i dunno.. pickens number at 30.5 does seem really short and kinda leaning uga backs in the passing game as well if i think bowers gets extra attention..

another thing im super interested in is bama te's. im assuming there gonna be adjustments in this game, on uga side i think they will def bring and get more pressure, if im bama my counter to that would be getting both te's involved and hitting them quickly in the voids that should be left be the blitzing lb's, both their totals are super low to the point they could easily hit their numbers with one and def with 2 catches!! similarly thinking i prefer robinson jr receiving total to his rush in this game.
Slade in the slot will get a look once I get props for this game.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Exactly. Think K Will gets bracketed.

at the very least i cant freaking imagine Young is allowed to have the time to move around in pocket and let williams get open all over the place down the field. that has to change or uga might as well not even show up!! seems to reason obrien counter to that would be a quicker shorter passing game where they drive the field with smaller gains, certainly dont think they will be able to run so i want all Young outlet guys here.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Thanks to all for a great season! I could have done without that Pick 6 for a TD as that cost me about a 4 unit swing but those are the breaks sometimes. Look forward to next year. This forum is outstanding!
 

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