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Breeders Cup 2021

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Quick overview of the five races on Friday, which are all 2 year old races. A couple of years ago they made Friday futures day and moved the older mare races onto the Saturday card. I kinda liked it better when the ladies had most of the races Friday and the Distaff ended the day, but oh well. Watch out for track biases at Delmar, sometimes the rail is dead and other teams speed is golden. Races today and tomorrow should give clues.

Race 6 - Five furlongs on the turf - usually an American specialty, this year half the field ships in from Europe for their first US race. Speed numbers favor Averly Jane and Derrynane, but Twilight Gleaming and Vertiginous have back class from Royal Ascot that sticks out like a sore thumb. Armor and Hierarchy also have nice form and have beaten some of the best sprint fields this year. Pretty wide open race.

Race 7 - Juvenile fillies, 1 1/16 mile - Echo Zulu has the pace edge and has run the best races in this small field. If you don't trust her then Juju's Map and Tarabi look must interesting. For multi-race bets though I think this will be the popular place to narrow.

Race 8 - Juvenile fillies turf, 1 mile - Another race with a strong European group, there's four that are tough to separate, Cachet, Hello You, Malavath and Miss En Scene. Koala Princess has the class to hang with these but will be trying to turns for the first time. Cairo Memories has continually improved and is 2 for 2 at two turns. And Turnerloose actually could get loose, is 3 for 3 at two turns and turns back in distance here, so she should be fit. Another wide open affair.

Race 9 - Juvenile, 1 1/16 mile - Cornich and Jack Christopher appear to stand out here, with the golfer in me attracted also to Pinehurst. If there's a pace meltdown and closers are getting a fair shake then Command Performance could be interesting.

Race 10 - Juvenile turf, 1 mile - Albahr, Dubawi Legend and Modern Game appear to be a notch above the others here. Albahr is 2 for 2 at the distance. Others that have had success at the mile are Mackinnon (3 for 3), Tiz the Bomb (2 for 2) and Dakota Gold (1 for 1).
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I dont know if Command Performance can get there or not Friday, but he's the one I want for the 1st Saturday in May. I love this horse. But may need a tad further to beat these.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
R9 I’ll be against Cornich. Don’t like the draw and he’ll never get past JC for the lead from there. I like the other 2 Bafferts at a price more than the 12.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Domestic Spending out of the Turf on Saturday. Was gonna be the key me having a good day or not. Oh well. Hope to see him again later.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
R6....wide open race as stated, 5-8 all look solid. An interesting long shot for me is 12 Run Curtis Run. Ran his ass off at BEL in the G3 Futurity and held off everyone except Slipstream who came on late to beat him. Now cuts back to 5F. Might not get to the lead from the 12 post but at 20-1 for Mike Maker he's worth a stab I think.

R7...I think 5 Juju has a good shot to beat Echo. Her 112 Timeform # at KEE last time out matches Echo's best figure, Echo hasn't gone more than a mile and I dont like that they pulled off Santana for Joel on the mount. Also could see 3 Sequist coming late for a piece, Dallas Stewart barn hit some big prices at the KEE fall meet.

R8...Impossible field with a ton of likely winners. I like 11 Haughty at 10-1 the most but I think he'll be popular and could be 5-1/6-1. 3,4,6,9,12-14 all could win. I probably won't play much P5 b/c this horse feels like an ALL and I don't like having $200 tickets.

R9....1 JC is a beast, little worried about him coming back off such a monster effort in his last. I don't love the 12, I think his big win in the Pharoah came against a fairly weak field. I like 8,10 along with the 1.

R10...Another toughy. 1 is going to go favored I think. I like 4,5,10,14 as the others.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Good to see some passing occurring in the stretch, and several paths from the rail too. Track looked fair but you can't hang too far back.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
So awesome having a couple days of Del Mar and Larry Collmus. I'm surprised they're letting us bet it, still can't bet anything California with AZ's idiotic law right now but guess they knew they better waive it for BC. Same thing happened for Preakness, we can't bet Pimlico but they opened up that day.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
Larry is my favorite. His call of the Justify/Good Magic Preakness in the fog at Pimlico is my favorite.

Nice deep close from the 4 in R1. Good to see.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Woof, Johnny gets out finished by Ryan Moore. I'd say Astronomer had a hell of jockey upgrade. And the price, wow, floated up from 8/1 to 30/1.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Late pick 5: didn't want to single Gamine but Jack Christopher's scratch makes Juvy more open and Baffert's win in Race 1 signals to me his barn is back in business.

4,6,8,11 / 6 / 2,6,7,9,13 / 4,9,12 / 1,2
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Assume you mean EZ up there Gandy, not a bad idea to single the clear favorite in a 6 horse race

9th race the Baffert EXB will likely be played with all 3 of 'em
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Assume you mean EZ up there Gandy, not a bad idea to single the clear favorite in a 6 horse race

9th race the Baffert EXB will likely be played with all 3 of 'em
You're right....eyes are starting to blur from all these pps.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
R6....wide open race as stated, 5-8 all look solid. An interesting long shot for me is 12 Run Curtis Run. Ran his ass off at BEL in the G3 Futurity and held off everyone except Slipstream who came on late to beat him. Now cuts back to 5F. Might not get to the lead from the 12 post but at 20-1 for Mike Maker he's worth a stab I think.

R7...I think 5 Juju has a good shot to beat Echo. Her 112 Timeform # at KEE last time out matches Echo's best figure, Echo hasn't gone more than a mile and I dont like that they pulled off Santana for Joel on the mount. Also could see 3 Sequist coming late for a piece, Dallas Stewart barn hit some big prices at the KEE fall meet.

R8...Impossible field with a ton of likely winners. I like 11 Haughty at 10-1 the most but I think he'll be popular and could be 5-1/6-1. 3,4,6,9,12-14 all could win. I probably won't play much P5 b/c this horse feels like an ALL and I don't like having $200 tickets.

R9....1 JC is a beast, little worried about him coming back off such a monster effort in his last. I don't love the 12, I think his big win in the Pharoah came against a fairly weak field. I like 8,10 along with the 1.

R10...Another toughy. 1 is going to go favored I think. I like 4,5,10,14 as the others.
JuJu two turn experience has that advtg. over Echo.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
JuJu two turn experience has that advtg. over Echo.
Yeah. I think it's funny they pulled Santana and talk about his slump, even though the majority of his ofer streak were on Assmussen horses. Assmussen had a horrendous Keeneland meet.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Buddy's really good friend from college owns EZ, always pull for the Winchell horses but Asmussen really has had a shitty year, curious to see how the GR horses develop. Obviously have a good one here.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Thought she had good chance at the 1st qtr when it was just 23&2, then again at the half when it was 47, those are slow times for a horse used to running 1 turn. Then halfway through the far turn when the overhead showed they hadn't closed the gap I knew she had it.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Thought she had good chance at the 1st qtr when it was just 23&2, then again at the half when it was 47, those are slow times for a horse used to running 1 turn. Then halfway through the far turn when the overhead showed they hadn't closed the gap I knew she had it.
Like Moss said, that race was over at the break.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
The next race looks damn impossible. I took a flyer on the 5. Hoping she'd maybe go wire to wire off those sprint races. More than Ready and Giants Causeway so should love the extra distance.

There's just so many ways to go here though.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
This Fillies Turf race is crazy wide open. 11 horses less than 20/1. The dime super will be four figures. I'm keying 9 and 13 on top and one ITM slot, then spreading around the other two spots and hoping to get lucky.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
This Fillies Turf race is crazy wide open. 11 horses less than 20/1. The dime super will be four figures. I'm keying 9 and 13 on top and one ITM slot, then spreading around the other two spots and hoping to get lucky.
I'm worried about the 9. She looks like she is world class. I looked at the 13. The post is the only concern. She was my 2nd choice here.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Might be getting too clever (or too cheap) but I'm keying around the 9 & 13 and the two Chad horses. The super plays are only $4,40 apiece:

9,13 / 9,13 / 7,11 / ALL
9,13 / 7,11 / 9,13 / ALL
7,11 / 9,13 / 9,13 / ALL
7,11 / 9,13 / ALL / 9,13
9,13 / 7,11 / ALL / 9,13
9,13 / 9,13 / ALL / 7,11
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
TVG had a jockey cam on Pizza Bianca.......holy hell what a ride, like rush hour on the NJ Turnpike.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
Taking a shot on 5 Slipstream here in the finale at a price. Echo and Corniche blew up everything today for me.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
What a shitshow that finale was
Lucky (?) for me I was knocked out of that pick 5 in the Filly Turf or I would've been breaking things. A similar scenario happened to me at Belmont earlier this year with their goofy coupling rules. I posted the details in the Aggravations thread. You get the handicapping right, you structure the bet right, you watch your picks do their job and you still lose? Infuriating.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Here's the problem: I can understand that current race bets need to be voided for Modern Games, because in the time between the scratch announcement and when they determined that the horse could actually run, some people had gotten their money back while others hadn't, and I guess they couldn't put him back in the betting pool. Fine. Those players get their refund on the current race and can choose what they want to bet on next. Even the doubles and pick 3 players get a reduced payout on their ticket due to the scratch. They don't get what they could've gotten, but they get their bet back plus.

The pick 4, pick 5 and pick 6 players get royally screwed. And that's just wrong. The track has been holding their money the whole time! They didn't pay out anything from those pools until after the race. They could easily declare Modern Games the winner in the multi-pools and pay out accordingly, and call Tiz the Bomb the winner of the vertical pools and pays those out exactly how they did. The idea that the multi race players have to pretend the horse doesn't exist as they watch him win the race they bet him to win, while the horse's connections get to cash a nice check, is not only wrong but a bit cruel.

The technology is there to fix this. They'd better do it before the bettors decide to go elsewhere, which is much easier to do than ever now.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
Yes. Imagine having 1 in the Pick 4/5. Suicide watch.

That being said…who do we like today?

The 2 obvious singles beat me yesterday as I tried to beat the chalk. Gamine, Life and Jackie will be odds on today. Any of them go down?
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Yes. Imagine having 1 in the Pick 4/5. Suicide watch.

That being said…who do we like today?

The 2 obvious singles beat me yesterday as I tried to beat the chalk. Gamine, Life and Jackie will be odds on today. Any of them go down?
Jackie for me. Not likely. But funny stuff can happen in the Sprint.

Don't see Gamine losing ever around one turn.

Life is Good. Ginoboli is a different horse since blinkers but can he stay within distance? I mean LIG cleared Jackie's Warrior. I heard some pundits said they would've bet LIG in the Classic.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Yes. Imagine having 1 in the Pick 4/5. Suicide watch.

That being said…who do we like today?

The 2 obvious singles beat me yesterday as I tried to beat the chalk. Gamine, Life and Jackie will be odds on today. Any of them go down?
Gamine? probably wins. Unless Bella Sofia pushes her in which case CeCe would have a chance to pass them both.

Life is Good? maybe can be beat. Ginobli as a stalk and pounce or Silver State coming late into a contested pace would be the possibilites.

Jackie's Warrior? probably wins. Special Reserve would have to just be better since they run similar styles. Aloha West getting buzz as a late runner but I think he's a third place key.

Prices will probably be in the turf races like yesterday. Emaraaty Ana getting discussed in the Turf Sprint, there's a five pack in the F&M Turf that are hard to separate, another 4-6 good options in the MIle.

The one dirt race with a good chance of a price is the Distaff, where Letruska should have all kinds of company on the front end and that should set it up for Royal Flag, Clairere and Dunbar Road.

In the Turf Tarnawa looks very tough, and in the Classic you either like the 3 year olds or the older horses. I'm leaning towards the 3 year olds.
 

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