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Bowl Season Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

rambler882

Well-Known Member
Same reads but my play wil most likely be Purdue team total. Cant blame laying the 6. I love Pitt for all the reasons you stated
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
You thinking under on that Purdue team total? My track record is so bad on totals of any kind that I can't engage it.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Clemson will never get to a BCS with that kid
I can't believe he is still starting at a top program like Clemson. He's the worst QB at an elite program I've seen all year. And he seems to get worst and worse the more he plays. They don't even trust him to throw the ball more than a few yards downfield.

And he can't run either. Every time Clemson plays the announcers talk about how Clemson should run him more because he's so big, but he's so slow he's no running threat.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Anyone looking for an opinion on North Carolina/South Carolina would be wise to look elsewhere, because I refuse to utter a syllable either in support or against North Carolina. I threw up a goose egg in their games despite a seemingly insatiable desire to be involved in virtually all of them. As a result, I'll be ignoring that game.

I think all ya can do is take the points if ya gotta play it, I’ll be with you on the sidelines, I did ok wit unc after I figured out they dog shit/learned when they can be successful. The problem is I don’t know shit about South Carolina, pretty sure I didn’t bet one their games all year, didn’t see a snap, havnt a clue what they can or can’t do. It would basically be a fade of a unc team who is poorly coached, doesn’t prepare well, and you just can’t trust laying a bunch of points. Sounds like scary has some positive momentum building so think that prob enough to be competitive against heels.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
10. Pittsburgh +3 v Michigan State: Both teams will be missing their best players on offense, with Pitt missing QB Kenny Pickett and MSU missing RB Kenneth Walker. Pickett is obviously a huge loss, and nobody really knows much about Pitt backup Nick Patti, but his teammates by all accounts believe in him, and if a backup was ever going to have success, this is probably the scenario. First, it appears he'll have Jordan Addison to throw to, and you could make a case that he was the most productive receiver in college football this year. Second, Patti and Addison will have the opportunity to go against the team that gave up the most yards passing on a per game basis in the country this year. Teams threw the ball more than 60% of the time against the Spartans, and who could blame them? I'd expect Pitt to do the same thing as they give up yards by the bushel and rarely pressure the passer. On the flip side, MSU will have a similar advantage when they throw the ball, but the pass game is not nearly as much of an MO for the Spartans, as they prefer to run it and will likely try to do that with capable backs like Jordon Simmons or Elijah Collins. Pitt however, was stout against the run, so it might put pressure on Peyton Thorne to produce. He has great weapons in Nailor and Reed, but Pitt is also adept at sacking the QB, so obvious passing downs might pose a problem for downfield routes with those two. Pitt also has a significant edge on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, which seems to have a profound impact in the bowls. Ultimately, I think I'm getting points with the more well rounded team, and although Pickett's loss is significant for the Panthers, the matchup is a good one for their offense.

Pitt was my favorite play of bowl season till pickett went and fucked it up! I still lean same way as you but my concern would be sparty losing walker means nothing here while pitt losing pickett is obviously huge. What I’m really hoping for is to catch some good numbers on wr props for both teams!! Think that the sneaky way to get paid in this game.
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
I can't believe he is still starting at a top program like Clemson. He's the worst QB at an elite program I've seen all year. And he seems to get worst and worse the more he plays. They don't even trust him to throw the ball more than a few yards downfield.

And he can't run either. Every time Clemson plays the announcers talk about how Clemson should run him more because he's so big, but he's so slow he's no running threat.

Big issue for me, maybe the biggest, is the ball security, just the undisciplined nature and approach of throwing the ball up for grabs and trying to make something when there is nothing there. As a QB you just cannot be wired like that.

Posted on another thread - I'm a big fan of Klubnik. Big fan. Can't wait to see what he does at Clemson.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
I think all ya can do is take the points if ya gotta play it, I’ll be with you on the sidelines, I did ok wit unc after I figured out they dog shit/learned when they can be successful. The problem is I don’t know shit about South Carolina, pretty sure I didn’t bet one their games all year, didn’t see a snap, havnt a clue what they can or can’t do. It would basically be a fade of a unc team who is poorly coached, doesn’t prepare well, and you just can’t trust laying a bunch of points. Sounds like scary has some positive momentum building so think that prob enough to be competitive against heels.

if only i trusted my own advice, lmao
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Big issue for me, maybe the biggest, is the ball security, just the undisciplined nature and approach of throwing the ball up for grabs and trying to make something when there is nothing there. As a QB you just cannot be wired like that.

Posted on another thread - I'm a big fan of Klubnik. Big fan. Can't wait to see what he does at Clemson.
Broadcasters mentioned a QB coming in that will compete.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
I can't believe he is still starting at a top program like Clemson. He's the worst QB at an elite program I've seen all year. And he seems to get worst and worse the more he plays. They don't even trust him to throw the ball more than a few yards downfield.

And he can't run either. Every time Clemson plays the announcers talk about how Clemson should run him more because he's so big, but he's so slow he's no running threat.
Totally agree. All he does is kind of job toward the line and then fall down. Dabo told you all you needed to know about him on that last drive they had. All they needed was 1 first down from PLUS TERRITORY and the game was over. Rather than even try, they ran three line plunges. He's turned one of the most powerful, confident programs in the country into one that plays terrified of something going wrong.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Yeah, Klubnik is the real deal. Has all the tools. Led Westlake to its 3rd consecutive state title in Texas, first time ever in the state's 6-classification era. 40 consecutive wins.
I hear this kid is as good as they come and will be a starter at some point as a freshman.

And speaking of as good as they come, didn't Kyler Murray also win three state titles in 6-A? And won 40 plus straight as I recall?
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
Correct, they did win 3 in a row but that was before they split into two divisions of Class 6. But still equally impressive as what Westlake did.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Usually, when there's 8 minutes left in the game and it'll take 3 scores to beat you, you feel pretty good about your chances.....
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
11. Alabama -13.5 v Cincinnati: I keep thinking back to mid September when I was holding a Cincy -3.5 ticket in their game at Indiana. There were about 5 minutes left in the second quarter and Cincy was down 14-0, having been outgained something like 140-25 to that point. They just failed on a 3rd and long from deep in their own territory and I was getting ready to give up on the game. "What a joke." I thought. "If these guys think they have any claim to be a legitimate playoff contender, they're delusional." Anyone who watched the game up to that point probably thought the same. Luckily for them, IU was called for a roughing the passer on that 3rd and 18, giving them new life and everything changed from there. Mostly Cincy just gave Indiana enough rope to hang themselves, but they won and covered. I should actually admit that I was rooting for Cincy all year, but now that they're here, I expect them to run into the same fate that all of Alabama's semifinal opponents usually do. Cincy has mostly good numbers, but there was way too many instances of them allowing weak teams to hang with them. They were extremely lucky in many instances, notably Tulsa and Navy, both of whom had a chance to win with the ball in the final minutes. Even in their best win, at Notre Dame, they caught the break of dealing primarily only with Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne. Despite some shaky performances, Alabama still looks like a Goliath on paper. The only way Cincy would be able to make this a game is if it was in week 4 and Alabama was overlooking them. In this environment, that is not going to happen, and Alabama will be as prepared as Nick Saban is capable of preparing them, which is to say they will be very prepared. Desmond Ridder, despite his accomplishments is prone to turning the ball over, as his 78th ranked INT rate tells us. Cincy also struggles on 3rd down on offense and Alabama under Bryce Young is the #1 3rd down offense in the country. John Metchie being out is a huge blow, but Bama has plenty of playmakers to pick up the slack. After the initial flurry, I think Bama will settle in and grind out the Bearcats. I think Cincy will have a very hard time scoring, and they'll be facing a caliber of athlete the almost never see. I see Bama pulling away in this one.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
12. Michigan +8(-114) v Georgia: I just don't think the line should be this high. It's true that there's an element in recency bias involved for anyone that leans Michigan here because it would seem that both teams had outlier performances last week, one good and one bad. But I would argue that Michigan's performance against Ohio State was in line with what they've done all year. Even in the game they lost against Michigan State, they were clearly the better team. The dominated most teams they played, and they were very good on both sides of the ball. Statistically, in my opinion this game is a virtual dead heat. Throughout the year, Georgia's defense got all the accolades, and with good reason, ut their offensive efficiency was top notch as well under Stetson Bennett. However, in the biggest game of the year in the SEC title game, Bennett looked like the guy many people fear he is:An unathletic, limited QB who gets exposed by good defenses. Michigan is certainly one of those, so we'll see if Bennett improves his play against an elite defense (top 10 in every category. I'm guessing he won't, and Smart taps JT Daniels on the shoulder, which will probably make any difference. Every player in that Michigan locker room believes that they will beat Georgia here, so they will be brimming with confidence and aggressiveness. I think these two teams are on the same level...Michigan has given us no indication that they aren't.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Agree with you. It's Bama or pass for me.

I broke my own rule--NEVER bet against Alabama--in the SEC title game and I got just what I deserved for breaking a rule that has rewarded me over and over and over.

I won't make that mistake again

robinson over 75.5 rush yards a nice way to be on bama without having to lay all them points, they up on cincy in the 4th as they should be he will pound away at them and clear 100 no problem.
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
12. Michigan +8(-114) v Georgia: I just don't think the line should be this high. It's true that there's an element in recency bias involved for anyone that leans Michigan here because it would seem that both teams had outlier performances last week, one good and one bad. But I would argue that Michigan's performance against Ohio State was in line with what they've done all year. Even in the game they lost against Michigan State, they were clearly the better team. The dominated most teams they played, and they were very good on both sides of the ball. Statistically, in my opinion this game is a virtual dead heat. Throughout the year, Georgia's defense got all the accolades, and with good reason, ut their offensive efficiency was top notch as well under Stetson Bennett. However, in the biggest game of the year in the SEC title game, Bennett looked like the guy many people fear he is:An unathletic, limited QB who gets exposed by good defenses. Michigan is certainly one of those, so we'll see if Bennett improves his play against an elite defense (top 10 in every category. I'm guessing he won't, and Smart taps JT Daniels on the shoulder, which will probably make any difference. Every player in that Michigan locker room believes that they will beat Georgia here, so they will be brimming with confidence and aggressiveness. I think these two teams are on the same level...Michigan has given us no indication that they aren't.
Uga has been a front runner all year long, and let’s give them credit, they’ve been that good to be able to do that, BUT when they got down against Bama you could see they clearly were out of their comfort zone. Can Michigan do that? Michigan obviously doesn’t have Bruce Young or a dynamic qb but do have those 2 stud RB (assuming corrum is healthy), and If ga can’t run the ball on mich then goodluck blocking those 2 DEs. Even if ga wins I think mich stays within 7 minutes barring anything like what happened to pitt tonight happening
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Uga has been a front runner all year long, and let’s give them credit, they’ve been that good to be able to do that, BUT when they got down against Bama you could see they clearly were out of their comfort zone. Can Michigan do that? Michigan obviously doesn’t have Bruce Young or a dynamic qb but do have those 2 stud RB (assuming corrum is healthy), and If ga can’t run the ball on mich then goodluck blocking those 2 DEs. Even if ga wins I think mich stays within 7 minutes barring anything like what happened to pitt tonight happening

I’m on Michigan ml, just think that where the value is as I think these 2 pretty evenly matched, I dunno who gonna win so +240 made lot of sense to me. mich has done such a fantastic job scheming big plays with deception and I’m sure they have some tricks left, my hope is they can use Uga aggressiveness against them early and hit one or 2 big plays, I’m not real confident they gonna be able to come out and just run it right down Uga throat but if they can get them on their heels early and put Uga in that uncomfortable position that doesn’t suite them then maybe things change. I think it a fascinating game for one with such good defenses cause the offenses have a sneaky counter punch.
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
robinson over 75.5 rush yards a nice way to be on bama without having to lay all them points, they up on cincy in the 4th as they should be he will pound away at them and clear 100 no problem.

Yeah, Bama is going to pound that front into submission in the 2H.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Yeah, Bama is going to pound that front into submission in the 2H.

I know young a bad ass and even with one guy down bama is wr u but the way to attack cincy is on the ground, I have no doubt bama will figure that out. Wear down the front and stay away from those nfl players in cincy secondary the way to go imo. The bonus is if bama does throw with success early then they will absolutely run it late!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Yeah, Bama is going to pound that front into submission in the 2H.

I really wanted to be on cincy and I’m not really interested in laying 2 tds against them but just worry for them they won’t be able to hold up to the physicality for 60 min. Best case for them is bama comes out trying to throw it all over the field, I can’t imagine saban has a game plan that involves doing what best for cincy, lol. On the other side I just don’t think cincy will be able to run on bama then it gets into a situation is can the line give ridder time if bama pinning their ears back?

I really hope cincy makes this a competitive game, last thing I want to hear from now on is “cincy got a chance and bama crushed them”, that would suck for so many reasons; mainly cause bama has crushed many a power 5 team in the semi’s as well but nobody will talk bout that. So I’m rooting for cincy but I’m nervous for them, I do like pierce over 56.5 receiving yards for them, every big game and game against power 5 he has went over this number, he gonna have to see 8-10 targets in this game imo, cincy has to throw early and often and think they will have success at times.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
11. Alabama -13.5 v Cincinnati: I keep thinking back to mid September when I was holding a Cincy -3.5 ticket in their game at Indiana. There were about 5 minutes left in the second quarter and Cincy was down 14-0, having been outgained something like 140-25 to that point. They just failed on a 3rd and long from deep in their own territory and I was getting ready to give up on the game. "What a joke." I thought. "If these guys think they have any claim to be a legitimate playoff contender, they're delusional." Anyone who watched the game up to that point probably thought the same. Luckily for them, IU was called for a roughing the passer on that 3rd and 18, giving them new life and everything changed from there. Mostly Cincy just gave Indiana enough rope to hang themselves, but they won and covered. I should actually admit that I was rooting for Cincy all year, but now that they're here, I expect them to run into the same fate that all of Alabama's semifinal opponents usually do. Cincy has mostly good numbers, but there was way too many instances of them allowing weak teams to hang with them. They were extremely lucky in many instances, notably Tulsa and Navy, both of whom had a chance to win with the ball in the final minutes. Even in their best win, at Notre Dame, they caught the break of dealing primarily only with Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne. Despite some shaky performances, Alabama still looks like a Goliath on paper. The only way Cincy would be able to make this a game is if it was in week 4 and Alabama was overlooking them. In this environment, that is not going to happen, and Alabama will be as prepared as Nick Saban is capable of preparing them, which is to say they will be very prepared. Desmond Ridder, despite his accomplishments is prone to turning the ball over, as his 78th ranked INT rate tells us. Cincy also struggles on 3rd down on offense and Alabama under Bryce Young is the #1 3rd down offense in the country. John Metchie being out is a huge blow, but Bama has plenty of playmakers to pick up the slack. After the initial flurry, I think Bama will settle in and grind out the Bearcats. I think Cincy will have a very hard time scoring, and they'll be facing a caliber of athlete the almost never see. I see Bama pulling away in this one.

I mostly agree with you, think you might be judging them a little too harshly for a poor start in one game way back against Hoosiers. Wouldn’t it be fair to bring up last year bowl game where they hung with a similarly imposing Uga team? Granted Uga doesn’t have the fire power on offense of bama (Uga woulda been a better matchup for bearcats I think) but think cincy proved on several occasions they belong on field w big boys. Unfortunately for them you spot on about bama and the fact they destroy everyone in the semis so it not like it just a group of 5 thing, power 5 teams don’t hang with bama in this game either! Saban with a month to prepare is just impossible to beat!! I hate ppl won’t wanna talk bout that and it just be “see what happens when they give little guy a chance”, that be so unfair but inevitably what will be said. Can’t blame ya for playing bama even tho I would really like to see cincy stay within the number, or at least make it a good game for 3 qrtrs before getting put away late, I’m not even confident in that tho,
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
I’m on Michigan ml, just think that where the value is as I think these 2 pretty evenly matched, I dunno who gonna win so +240 made lot of sense to me. mich has done such a fantastic job scheming big plays with deception and I’m sure they have some tricks left, my hope is they can use Uga aggressiveness against them early and hit one or 2 big plays, I’m not real confident they gonna be able to come out and just run it right down Uga throat but if they can get them on their heels early and put Uga in that uncomfortable position that doesn’t suite them then maybe things change. I think it a fascinating game for one with such good defenses cause the offenses have a sneaky counter punch.
I just wonder if they struggle when Kirby panics and goes to JT
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Decided to lay off Wake/Rutgers because I could not find any info on what Rutgers players Schiano could round up, but just walked in and saw the latest so I acted. Now that we know that Melton, Pacheco and the backup RB are all out, I grabbed -16.5 with Wake right at kickoff. Rutgers hasn't been able to stop the pass all year, and now whatever playmakers they have on offense aren't playing. If Schiano covers this, build a statue for him because it will be all him.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
I mostly agree with you, think you might be judging them a little too harshly for a poor start in one game way back against Hoosiers. Wouldn’t it be fair to bring up last year bowl game where they hung with a similarly imposing Uga team? Granted Uga doesn’t have the fire power on offense of bama (Uga woulda been a better matchup for bearcats I think) but think cincy proved on several occasions they belong on field w big boys. Unfortunately for them you spot on about bama and the fact they destroy everyone in the semis so it not like it just a group of 5 thing, power 5 teams don’t hang with bama in this game either! Saban with a month to prepare is just impossible to beat!! I hate ppl won’t wanna talk bout that and it just be “see what happens when they give little guy a chance”, that be so unfair but inevitably what will be said. Can’t blame ya for playing bama even tho I would really like to see cincy stay within the number, or at least make it a good game for 3 qrtrs before getting put away late, I’m not even confident in that tho,
I didn't mean for it to come off that my biased reaction to that one game was my only reason for playing it. I just always think back to that day, and if I went against that instinct, I'd be kicking myself later. The most significant reason for the play is that I don't think Cincy can hang with Bama when they are getting Bama's best shot, with all of their attention and emotion properly channeled and with Saban having all this time to prepare.

Don't get me wrong...I would love to see Cincy hang here and even win. I just think it's unlikely after 60 minutes, even though Alabama has given us a lot of reasons throughout the season to be skeptical of them.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
I didn't mean for it to come off that my biased reaction to that one game was my only reason for playing it. I just always think back to that day, and if I went against that instinct, I'd be kicking myself later. The most significant reason for the play is that I don't think Cincy can hang with Bama when they are getting Bama's best shot, with all of their attention and emotion properly channeled and with Saban having all this time to prepare.

Don't get me wrong...I would love to see Cincy hang here and even win. I just think it's unlikely after 60 minutes, even though Alabama has given us a lot of reasons throughout the season to be skeptical of them.

I feel ya. I really wanted to play cincy and I couldn’t bring myself to do it, think you on the right side: I’m rolling with pretty big bet on Robinson over 75.5 rush yards, feel like he going over 100 in just about any game script I can think of. Gl today and happy new year!!
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Let me also just say this about that Pitt game last night.

If you were a bettor who handicapped this game and knew that even after Pickett went out that Pitt was the better squad, so you sat back and watched and waited, and then jumped in as soon as that line reached 3.5, you couldn't have played it any better. You effectively insulated yourself from the backup going out on the first drive, leaving you with a 3rd stringer who had never played, as well as a complete bed shitting by the Pitt defense that culminated with a 2 point conversion where the right tackle just tackled the LE ad got away with it, and STILL were in position to win your bet.

That's gambling for you.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Not going to have a play on the Outback Bowl(I think), PSU v Arkansas. The opt ous look like they might be a little more severe on the Penn State side, but the Burks opt out is a killer for Arkansas also. This line looks about right, since PSU will be in trouble offensively without Dotson and they can't run the ball. Also, Penn State's defensive line, a strength for most of the year, will be severely limited adding opt outs to the previous loss of Mustipher. Having said all that, it seems a form of suicide to go against a Big ten team right now, and I got burned twice yesterday doing that. It's gonna take a pretty overwhelming situation for me to fade a Big Ten team as well as back and SEC team other than Bama or Georgia at this juncture.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Not going to have a play on the Outback Bowl(I think), PSU v Arkansas. The opt ous look like they might be a little more severe on the Penn State side, but the Burks opt out is a killer for Arkansas also. This line looks about right, since PSU will be in trouble offensively without Dotson and they can't run the ball. Also, Penn State's defensive line, a strength for most of the year, will be severely limited adding opt outs to the previous loss of Mustipher. Having said all that, it seems a form of suicide to go against a Big ten team right now, and I got burned twice yesterday doing that. It's gonna take a pretty overwhelming situation for me to fade a Big Ten team as well as back and SEC team other than Bama or Georgia at this juncture.
To expand on the Big Ten thing, I mean, even Rutgers looks pretty good today. They rolled out of bed this morning and are competing really well with a 10-3 Wake team.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Kicking myself for not playing the Chippewas. Anyone who's watched CMU over the past month or so wouldn't be surprised that they are playing well in this one. I was planning on taking the points against Boise, and Boise got the hell out of that game because they knew none of their kids really had much interest in playing that game. I chickened out because the line dropped to 5 this morning and because I wasn't sure how they'd react to the extra travel. They're a good team.
 

rambler882

Well-Known Member
Kicking myself for not playing the Chippewas. Anyone who's watched CMU over the past month or so wouldn't be surprised that they are playing well in this one. I was planning on taking the points against Boise, and Boise got the hell out of that game because they knew none of their kids really had much interest in playing that game. I chickened out because the line dropped to 5 this morning and because I wasn't sure how they'd react to the extra travel. They're a good team.
I did a quick review this morning and just ended up liking what Wazzu did to the heavier run teams in Pac. Never know motivation, but this year WSU did relatively well defensively and realistically CMU has not had much success stopping the pass. Thought a ML parlay was just an easy way to get some value....nope!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Let me also just say this about that Pitt game last night.

If you were a bettor who handicapped this game and knew that even after Pickett went out that Pitt was the better squad, so you sat back and watched and waited, and then jumped in as soon as that line reached 3.5, you couldn't have played it any better. You effectively insulated yourself from the backup going out on the first drive, leaving you with a 3rd stringer who had never played, as well as a complete bed shitting by the Pitt defense that culminated with a 2 point conversion where the right tackle just tackled the LE ad got away with it, and STILL were in position to win your bet.

That's gambling for you.

It was disgusting at the casino with a bunch of morons cashing sparty tickets acting like they made a good bet!!! No way in hell should have 3.5 ever been in danger. I don’t blame pitt d, their coach could have maybe tried to get a 1st down in 2nd half to give them a fucjing breather at some point and kill some clock instead of basically take knees and punt the whole 4th qrtr. The defense was only reason we had a chance, I was shocked it took sparty so long to be able to pass for real.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
13. Oklahoma State +2 v Notre Dame: It's interesting that this line hasn't moved much despite the fact that just about every pundit I'm aware of is all over Notre Dame here. Notre Dame is on an emotional high as a result of the promotion of Marcus Freeman to replace Brian Kelly, and I can see why based on his credibility and enthusiasm. Ultimately though, I think I might like the motivational angle from the Okie State side just as much. They had a rough end to the season with that loss to Baylor that might have cost them a trip to the playoff, but the consolation prize is the chance to line up against Notre Dame, and there's no red blooded college football player that doesn't get jacked up for that. As for opt outs, I'm not aware of any players opting out for OSU, but they will be without DC Jim Knowles. Will their defense, who were dominant in just about every game this year, forget how to play? I doubt it, and I don't really like the matchup for Notre Dame's offense in this game. The last thing I would ever do is criticize Notre Dame's schedule, but this year, circumstances made it a lot easier than it usually is. The entire back half of their schedule was a cakewalk, and they struggled to get much of anything going against the good defenses they did play. Their offense was by no means explosive, and starting RB Kyren Williams will be out for this game. Defensively, they probably have the edge against Oklahoma State's offense, but I like OSU's chances to have success with Gundy's ability to scheme (and also remembering that All World safety Kyle Hamilton is out) better than I like ND's to have success against this OSU defense. (No offense to ND OC Tommy Rees). I was originally planning on waiting for this line to move to 3, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. Ultimately, I just have a feeling Okie State is going to upset the consensus
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
14. Utah +4 v Ohio State: First of all, I know that there is fleeting line value with this game, as a week ago you could have gotten 6.5(which I did), but I wouldn't have any problem with anyone who took 4 because I think it's likely that Utah wins the game outright. Recency bias is rearing it's ugly head here, but there are some obvious reasons to play Utah here. First, obviously are the opt outs. The losses Ohio State will have to endure are huge. Wilson and Olave are two of the top 5 receivers in the country, and the OSU offense relies heavily on them. If one of them is out it's a big deal, as OSU's performance against Nebraska illustrated when Wilson was unavailable. With both of them out, I'd imagine OSU will look completely different, even considering that whatever guys step in are probably better than 90% of the starters across the country. We also have a scenario where the motivational edge is solidly on Utah's side. We already know that there are many OSU players who don't have much desire to be there, We also know that Utah is super jacked to be there, as this is their maiden voyage to the Rose Bowl, and it's something that they probably never thought was possible after their second loss back in September vs San Diego State. Since they installed Cam Rising under center, they've lost only once and looked like a completely different team on offense. Defensively, they are well coached and physical, and offensively, I think they'll have success against OSU's short handed D. Even at full strength, Ohio State ranked 93rd on 3rd down , so they'll have a hard time getting off the field against an offense that ranked 6th in that category. I also like TJ Pledger and Tavion Thomas's chances to have success running the bal. There's a big motivational edge in this one, and even if OSU was at full strength, these teams are comparable on paper. I like the Utes here. Also, I should mention that I was reminded by a neighbor who dabbles in the occasional bet that Ohio State actually LOST TO OREGON AND UTAH BLEW OUT OREGON TWICE!!! Hard to argue with that air-tight transitive property logic, right?
 

AliShaheed

Well-Known Member
14. Utah +4 v Ohio State: First of all, I know that there is fleeting line value with this game, as a week ago you could have gotten 6.5(which I did), but I wouldn't have any problem with anyone who took 4 because I think it's likely that Utah wins the game outright. Recency bias is rearing it's ugly head here, but there are some obvious reasons to play Utah here. First, obviously are the opt outs. The losses Ohio State will have to endure are huge. Wilson and Olave are two of the top 5 receivers in the country, and the OSU offense relies heavily on them. If one of them is out it's a big deal, as OSU's performance against Nebraska illustrated when Wilson was unavailable. With both of them out, I'd imagine OSU will look completely different, even considering that whatever guys step in are probably better than 90% of the starters across the country. We also have a scenario where the motivational edge is solidly on Utah's side. We already know that there are many OSU players who don't have much desire to be there, We also know that Utah is super jacked to be there, as this is their maiden voyage to the Rose Bowl, and it's something that they probably never thought was possible after their second loss back in September vs San Diego State. Since they installed Cam Rising under center, they've lost only once and looked like a completely different team on offense. Defensively, they are well coached and physical, and offensively, I think they'll have success against OSU's short handed D. Even at full strength, Ohio State ranked 93rd on 3rd down , so they'll have a hard time getting off the field against an offense that ranked 6th in that category. I also like TJ Pledger and Tavion Thomas's chances to have success running the bal. There's a big motivational edge in this one, and even if OSU was at full strength, these teams are comparable on paper. I like the Utes here. Also, I should mention that I was reminded by a neighbor who dabbles in the occasional bet that Ohio State actually LOST TO OREGON AND UTAH BLEW OUT OREGON TWICE!!! Hard to argue with that air-tight transitive property logic, right?
I also see OSU's lame duck defensive staff as a factor here.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Michigan may have redefined the concept of "shitting the bed" in that one tonight.

You mean you didn’t like harbaugh’s incredibly bold strategy to not cover anyone?!??! That gotta go down as just about as stupid as chargers head coach Staley philosophy to let teams run all over them! Neither is a good idea! Lol.

I just bet mich ml and certainly not heavy, dunno if I expected to win but I did think we were gonna get a great game, not one I turned off at half, what a pathetic waste of time that was. I feel ripped off, all I wanted was my entertainment dollar in that game and they couldn’t even give us that.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
You mean you didn’t like harbaugh’s incredibly bold strategy to not cover anyone?!??! That gotta go down as just about as stupid as chargers head coach Staley philosophy to let teams run all over them! Neither is a good idea! Lol.

I just bet mich ml and certainly not heavy, dunno if I expected to win but I did think we were gonna get a great game, not one I turned off at half, what a pathetic waste of time that was. I feel ripped off, all I wanted was my entertainment dollar in that game and they couldn’t even give us that.
Was able to watch the Office marathon which I love and talk to three different people on the phone as opposed to watch that 2nd half last night, so I look at the investment as solid. Helped to hit under at least but that had zero entertainment value. All well before any kind of midnight BS
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Was able to watch the Office marathon which I love and talk to three different people on the phone as opposed to watch that 2nd half last night, so I look at the investment as solid. Helped to hit under at least but that had zero entertainment value. All well before any kind of midnight BS

i was asleep by 10, even tho i feel 100% better i still havnt been sleeping great so i was exhausted yesterday, i was fading out in the 1st qrt and would hear my mom saying "oh no" (she from michigan) and i would look up to see uga guys wide freaking open walking into endzone, lol. worked out cause i slept pretty good and woke up bright eyed and bushy tailed aroubd 4;40-5vand started capping todays props!! went to casino and made 1st round of bets then hit the store and got booze and stuff to make breakfast as i much prefer new years day at this point in my life!! lol.. got some rock salt too, cold rain here but supposed to gst colder as the day goes and turn to snow and ice, perfect day to cuddle up with booze and football!!!!

office is great but now that it been on a constant loop on comedy central for years i cant take it anymore, rewatched it all when pandemic 1st hit and we were stuck inside. i can prob recite every episode so no more!!! lol
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
The way CFB is currently, unless OSU and Clemson are in the Final Four with Bama and Georgia, we’re going to see lopsided contests.

lets hope that Riley can put usc back on the map, they not short on talent out there so think it coming in a few years where they be able to play with those teams,. probably get beat physically but should be able to score points!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Even with those 4 in there, the way things have been going the semi finals would be blowouts.

We saw a bad version of clemson play w Uga this year. They wouldn’t have let guys wide open! Lol. They wouldn’t have scored tho.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
After almost 24 hours of reflection, I feel the need to express this about that effort by Michigan last night:

Granted, I was heavily leveraged in the Wolverines pretty much 10 ways to Sunday, but that might have been the most disappointing, pathetic performance I've seen among all of the semi finals blowout losers of the last several years, and that's saying something. In the past, teams like Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati earlier yesterday and even Notre Dame just ran into a team much better than them and got outclassed. Last night, Michigan, who hadn't had a bad performance all year, laid a hideous egg, by far their worst performance of the year in the biggest moment of the last 25 years of their program's history. Literally EVERYTHING Georgia tried in the first half on offense worked perfectly. Every Michigan player failed miserably in virtually every scenario in which they were tested. It was a gutless, weak, infantile performance. I know Georgia is a fabulous team, and credit is due them for putting it on Michigan when they had the chance, but they had to laughing and thinking to themselves, "These guys are just handing this to us." Michigan showed us all year that they were on the level of the best teams in the country in my opinion. This result way more about Michigan pissing down their collective leg than Georgia doing it to them. Totally uncovered receivers. Blown assignments. Weak tackling. Dropped passes. Terrible throws. Fumbles as soon as they get a modicum of momentum offensively. Just a disgrace.

**Rant over***
 

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