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Bowl Season Results Tracker

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Bahamas Bowl - Toledo vs MTSU
1st H (6.5 / 25): Dog / Over
2nd H (3.5 / 24.5): Dog / Under
Game (10.5 / 50): Dog / Over
Dog Upset

Cure Bowl - Coastal Carolina vs NIU
1st H (7 / 32.5): Dog / Over
2nd H (7.5 / 34.5): Fav / Over
Game (12 / 63.5): Dog / Over

Friday 12/17 ATS Record - 1 dog upset
1st H: Dogs 2-0 / Overs 2-0
2nd H: Dogs 1-1 / Overs 1-1
Game: Dogs 2-0 / Overs 2-0
--------------------------------------------------
Boca Raton Bowl - App State vs WKU
1st H (pk / 34.5): NA /
Over
2nd H (A-1.5 / 37): Dog / Over
Game (pk / 67.5): NA / Over

New Mexico Bowl - Fresno vs UTEP
1st H (7 / 27):
Dog / Over
2nd H (4 / 27.50): Fav / Under
Game (13 / 54.5): Dog / Over

Independence Bowl - BYU vs UAB
1st H (3.5 / 27):
Dog / Over
2nd H (4 27.5) Push / Under
Game (6 / 54): Dog / Over
Dog Upset

Lending Tree Bowl - Liberty vs Eastern Michigan
1st H (5.5 / 29.5):
Fav / Over
2nd H (4 / 27.5): Fav / Over
Game (9.5 / 58.5): Fav / Over

Jimmy Kimmel Bowl - Oregon State vs Utah State
1st H (3.5 / 34.5):
Dog / Under
2nd H (2.5 / 33.5) Dog / Under
Game (6.5 / 68.5): Dog / Under
Dog Upset


New Orleans Bowl - ULL vs Marshall
1st H (3 / 27.5):
Dog / Over
2nd H (LL-.5 / 27.5): Fav / Under
Game (4 / 55.5): Fav / Over

Saturday 12/18 Record - 2 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H
Dogs 4-1* / Overs 5-1
2nd H Dogs 2-3-1 / Overs 2-4
Game Dogs 3-2* / Overs 5-1

--------------------------------------------------------

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Tulsa vs Old Dominion
1st H (4 / 28): Fav / Under
2nd H (3.5 / 27): Fav / Under
Game (7.5 / 55): Fav / Under

--------------------------------------------

Potato Bowl - Wyoming vs Kent State
1st H (2.5 / 30.5): Dog / Over
2nd H (W-1 / 35): Fav / Over
Game (3 / 60.5): Fav / Over

Frisco Bowl - San Diego State vs UTSA
1st H (2.5 / 24): Fav / Over
2nd H (SD-.5 / 24.5) Fav / Over
Game (3 / 48.5): Fav / Over

------------------------------------------

Armed Forces Bowl - Army vs Missouri
1st H (4 / 27.5): Dog / Under
2nd H (5 / 26.5): Fav / Under
Game (7 / 54): Dog / Under

---------------------------------------

Frisco Classic - Miami, Oh vs North Texas
1st H (.5 / 28): Fav / Over
2nd H (M-.5 / 28.5): Fav / Under
Game (2 / 56.5): Fav / Under

Gasparilla Bowl - Florida vs UCF
1st H (3.5 / 28): Dog / Under
2nd H (3.5 / 26): Dog / Over
Game (7 / 56): Dog / Under
Dog Upset


---------------------------------------------

Camellia Bowl - Georgia State vs Ball State
1st H (3.5 / 27.5) : Fav / Over
2nd H (1.5 / 24): Fav / Over
Game (6.5 / 57): Fav / Over

-------------------------------------------

Quick Lane Bowl - Western Michigan vs Nevada
1st H (3.5 /28.5): Fav / Over
2nd H (4 /24.5): Fav / Over
Game (7 / 57): Fav / Over

--------------------------------------------------

Birmingham Bowl - Houston vs Auburn
1st H (H-.5 / 24): Fav / Under
2nd H (A-.5 / 22.5) Fav / Under
Game (H-1 / 49): Fav / Under

First Responder Bowl - Air Force vs Louisville
1st H (A-.5 / 27.5): Fav / Over
2nd H (L-.5 / 27.5): Fav / Under
Game (A-1 / 55): Fav / Over

Liberty Bowl - Mississippi State vs Texas Tech
1st H (6.5 / 29.5): Dog / Under
2nd H(7 / 28): Dog / Under
Game (10 / 59): Dog / Under
Dog Upset


Guaranteed Rate Bowl - Minnesota vs West Virginia
1st H (3 / 22): Fav / Under
2nd H (4 / 21.5): Dog / Under
Game (6 / 45): Fav / Under

Tuesday 12/28 ATS Record - 1 Dog Upset
1st H Dogs 1-3 / Overs 1-3
2nd H Dogs 2-2 / Overs 0-4
Game Dogs 1-3 / Overs 1-3

------------------------------------------

Pinstripe Bowl - Maryland - Virginia Tech
1st H (3 / 28): Fav / Over
2nd H (2 / 27): Fav / Over
Game (4.5 / 55.5): Fav / Over

Cheez It Bowl - Clemson - Iowa State
1st H (.5 / 21.5): Fav / Under
2nd H (.5 / 21): Fav / Over
Game (2 / 45): Fav / Under

Alamo Bowl - Oklahoma - Oregon
1st H (4 / 31.5): Fav / Over
2nd H (2 /27): Dog / Over
Game (7 / 64): Fav / Over

Wednesday 12/29 ATS Record
1st H Dog 0-3 / Overs 2-1
2nd H Dogs 1-2 / Overs 3-0
Game: Dogs 0-3 / Overs 2-1

-------------------------------------------

Mayo Bowl - North Carolina vs South Carolina
1st H (7.5 / 29.5): Dog / Over
2nd H (7 / 30.5): Dog / Under
Game (12.5 / 57.5) Dog / Over
Dog Upset

Music City Bowl - Tennessee vs Purdue
1st H (4 / 34): Dog / Over
2nd H (4.5 / 35.5): Dog / Over
Game (7.5 / 66.5): Dog / Over
Dog Upset

Peach Bowl - Michigan State vs Pitt
1st H (1.5 / 28): Dog / Under
2nd H (4 / 24): Fav / Over
Game (3.5 / 55.5): Fav / Under

Las Vegas Bowl - Wisconsin vs Arizona State
1st H (4.5 / 21): Fav / Over
2nd H (5 / 20.5) Dog / Under
Game (8 / 42.5) Dog / Under

Thursday 12/30 ATS Bowl Record
1st H Dogs 3-1 / Overs 3-1
2nd H Dogs 3-1 / Overs 2-2
Game Dogs 3-1 / Overs 2-2
2 Dog Upsets
---------------------------------------------------

Gator Bowl - Wake Forest vs Rutgers
1st H (10.5 / 31.5): Dog / Under
2nd H (4.5 / 28.5): Fav / Under
Game (17 / 62.5): Fav / Under

Sun Bowl - Washington State - Central Michigan
1st H (3.5 / 28): Dog / Under
2nd H (3 / 23): Fav / Over
Game (5.5 / 56): Dog / Under
Dog Upset


Cotton Bowl - Alabama vs Cincinnati
1st H (7 / 29.5) Fav / Under
2nd H (5 / 24.5): Fav / Under
Game (13 / 57.5): Fav / Under

Orange Bowl - Georgia vs Michigan
1st H (4.5 / 22.5): Fav / Over
2nd H (1.5 / 20.5) Dog / Under
Game (7.5 / 46): Fav / Under

Friday 12/31 ATS Bowl Record
1st H Dogs 2-2 / Overs 1-3
2nd H Dogs 1-3 / Overs 1-3
Game Dogs 1-3 / Overs 0-4
1 Dog Upset

---------------------------------------------

Outback Bowl - Arkansas vs Penn State
1st H (2 / 25): Dog / Under
2nd H (2 / 24): Fav / Under
Game (3 / 51): Fav / Under

Citrus Bowl - Kentucky vs Iowa
1st H (1.5 / 21.5): Fav / Under
2nd H (.5 / 20.5): Dog / Over
Game (3 / 43.5): Push / Under

Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame
1st H (pk / 22.5): NA / Over
2nd H (O-2.5 / 24): Fav / Over
Game (pk / 45.5): NA / Over

Rose Bowl - Ohio State vs Utah
1st H (3 / 32); Dog / Over
2nd H (7 / 35.5) Fav / Over
Game (4 / 64.5) Dog / Over

Sugar Bowl - Ole Miss vs Baylor
1st H M-(.5 / 30): Dog / Under
2nd H (B-1.5 / 21) Fav / Push
Game (1 / 60): Dog / Under
1 Dog Upset


Saturday 1/1 ATS Record - 1 Dog Upset win
1st H Dogs 3-1* / Overs 2-3
2nd H Dogs 1-4 / Overs 3-1-1
Game Dogs 2-1-1* / Overs 2-3

* Ok State / ND was 1st H and Game pick'em, not counted ATS

-----------------------------------------------

Total Bowl Record - 8 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H
Dogs 18-16* / Overs 21-15
2nd H Dogs 12-23-1 / Overs 17-18-1
Game Dogs 14-19-1* / Overs 18-18

*WKU and Ok State was pick'em not counted as dog or fav

-------------------------------------------------------

Texas Bowl - Kansas State - LSU
1st H (6 / 23.5):
Fav / Over
2nd H (3 / 21): Fav / Over
Game (10 / 47):
Fav / Over
 
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s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Through the first two days; combining the 1st Halves, 2nd Halves and full games, Underdog plays ATS are a combined 14-7-1 and Overs are a combined 17-7. There have been 3 upset dog outright winners.

WKU isn't counted ATS record as they closed Pick'em so I do not count them as a dog nor a favorite in their win.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
so sick that ull/marshall game went over, it played like a under pretty much the entire game outside the random big plays and marshall defense giving up to the point ull scored instead of simply running out the clock. the last 6 min of that game took so damn long, ugh.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Here are the singular plays and events that I can think of off hand that swung games one way or the other.

Toledo gets INT and long return to the MTSU 16 with 2-1/2 min left in the 1st H. Game is 14-14, Toledo is -6/6.5 1st H, a TD here and Toledo can cover 1st H. They run twice and throw incomplete and kick a 32y FG, MTSU covers the 1st H.

Toledo TD with 1:08 left to get get Game Over.

NIU converts 4th down on an 83y drive to the CC04, but referree rules player in bounds, referee motions for clock to run, the clock didn't stop long enough for the FD or out of bounds plus there was no review (was it a catch, was he out of bounds?) and time expires preventing NIU a chance at a ML win or a 2nd H ATS cover.

Fresno D gets a safety in the 4th Q to get the Game Over and Fresno the 2nd H cover.

BYU's 4th Q 1st-10 pass was ruled complete and a fumble at the UAB28, the pass appeared to be incomplete with under 4min left. This prevented any potential points for BYU keeping the 2nd H Under and a potential BYU lead change. UAB kept the chains moving at the end of the game to kill the clock instead of potentially being stopped short and deciding to kick a FG which would've put the 2nd H Over (any more UAB points also would've won them the 2nd H cover as BYU was -3.5/4 2nd H).

Utah State fumbles into the EZ while going into score preventing their team total from going over.

1st H, ULL false starts going for a 4th-goal from the M03 trailing 10-14 with 1:28 left. Had they scored a TD it would've made the 1st H go Over and pushed the side (depending on number). ULL kicks FG, to keep 1st H Under and Side with Marshall.

1st H, Marshall throws deep INT to the LA28 with a good return, ULL is at midfield with 1:28 left. ULL throws a 42y bomb down to the M04, 1st-goal. A TD here will make ULL cover the 1st H and 1st H Over. Instead, again from inside the 5 they must settle for a FG, 1st H goes Over on this.

Inside of 5 minutes to go in the game at their own 25, Marshall is called with delay of game. Marshall is called for unsportsman-like-conduct, they end up punting from their own EZ with 3:26. The game is 29-21 ULL leading, Under. ULL starts at midfield. Never facing a 3rd down, ULL runs for 3, 11, 9, 19 (ULL ran OOB on this one), 8 and finally 2 yards on 2nd-goal for a TD with 1:41 left to go Game Over (and also spoil any Marshall teasers).
 
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s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Total Bowl Record - 3 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H Dogs 9-6* / Overs 12-4
2nd H Dogs 4-11-1 / Overs 8-8
Game Dogs 7-8* / Overs 11-5
*WKU was pick'em not counted as dog or fav

Today favorites have overtaken the dogs. Overs continue to roll.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Finally saw some unders cashing today, looks like 3-1 to under assuming nothing drastic happens in the wvu/minny game.

Another dd fav loses outright, what a pathetic performance by messy, of course the 1st time I lay a big number this bowl season and they get rolled, lmao.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Which I'm usually the one trying to squeeze Unders in, but today what did I do? I played 6 overs! Brilliant! I won 2.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Which I'm usually the one trying to squeeze Unders in, but today what did I do? I played 6 overs! Brilliant! I won 2.

Only over I played was ville. Hit the aub under. Didn’t mess with other 2 totals, I was pretty close to playing the gophers over, glad I didn’t.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I remember from years past, the straight up winner in the bowls covers at a very high rate. Just not that many games where the winner doesn;t cover. Not sure how that % in bowls would compare vs regular season.

Straight up winner so far this year is 17-3 ATS. The 3 SU losers who covered ATS are NIU, UTEP and Mizzou.

Through Tuesday:
Total Bowl Record - 4 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H Dogs 10-9* / Overs 13-7
2nd H Dogs 6-13-1 / Overs 8-12
Game Dogs 8-11* / Overs 12-8

*WKU was pick'em not counted as dog or fav
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
I remember from years past, the straight up winner in the bowls covers at a very high rate. Just not that many games where the winner doesn;t cover. Not sure how that % in bowls would compare vs regular season.

Straight up winner so far this year is 17-3 ATS. The 3 SU losers who covered ATS are NIU, UTEP and Mizzou.

Through Tuesday:
Total Bowl Record - 4 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H Dogs 10-9* / Overs 13-7
2nd H Dogs 6-13-1 / Overs 8-12
Game Dogs 8-11* / Overs 12-8

*WKU was pick'em not counted as dog or fav

That basically same thing as nfl correct? I’ve always heard it only around 18% or something where the spread comes into play. Always makes me feel silly for not playing more on mls than dogs ats.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Good thread, S--K, lot of information.

Here's some more info that might be helpful (prior to end of Mich St/Pitt game):

Teams with a coach who stayed to coach a final game are 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Teams with interim coaches are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS (that includes a win both SU and ATS by Bob Stoops and he's not the average interim coach)

Big 10 is 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
SEC is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS
Big 12 is 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Pac 12 is 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
ACC is 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
AAC is 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
Mtn West is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Good thread, S--K, lot of information.

Here's some more info that might be helpful (prior to end of Mich St/Pitt game):

Teams with a coach who stayed to coach a final game are 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Teams with interim coaches are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS (that includes a win both SU and ATS by Bob Stoops and he's not the average interim coach)

Big 10 is 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
SEC is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS
Big 12 is 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Pac 12 is 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
ACC is 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
AAC is 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
Mtn West is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS

You wouldn’t put Irish in any those category’s would you? I’m treating them the same as I would have with Kelly, if anything I think they get a boost. I been wanting to get your thoughts on that game, I like ND but feel like you had better read on both those teams than I did this year
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
You wouldn’t put Irish in any those category’s would you? I’m treating them the same as I would have with Kelly, if anything I think they get a boost. I been wanting to get your thoughts on that game, I like ND but feel like you had better read on both those teams than I did this year
I think N Dame is the only school that has a new head coach who's coaching the bowl. If Kelly were still there I'd go N Dame all the way, but I don't have any idea what it means with a new coach who's never been a HC before. Kelly was a hard ass who didn't allow any nonsense, always had the Irish ready to play, and was an excellent game coach. Can the new guy equal that?

Big advantage for N Dame at QB, but losing that RB really hurts, He was the difference in a lot of games down the stretch.

I think the N Dame defense is as good as Okla State's and there is no possible way to predict what kind of game Spencer Sanders is going to play, but with no Kelly and with the RB gone I don't know what to expect

Hard for me to figure the motivation too. N Dame can't be too inspired to play Okla State and no way to know if the new coach is treating this as the start of next season or a vacation. It seems like Oklahoma State should be more motivated, but they weren't even fired up to play Baylor in the most important game in Oklahoma State history and a shot at making the CFP on the line

I think there are too many unpredictable factors to bet it, but if someone held a gun to my head and made me bet I'd take N Dame and hope the best QB and a good D would overcome a new coach.

I still have to make picks in my contest, but I don't see enough either way to pick it. I have to make 10 picks though, so how do you see it? Maybe you can give me a winner
 
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TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
I like ND
The more I think about it, the more I think you are correct. It's N Dame or pass

Every time I think about what Oklahoma State might do I think of the endless number of attempts they had at the one-yard line against Baylor and the putrid play calling and performance they produced. Notre Dame has a defense every bit as good as Baylor's

The only question for me is how N Dame reacts under a new coach. I'm always leery of a team that goes wild about a "player's coach" assistant who is promoted when a hardass coach leaves. At least the new guy is a D-coordinator so maybe he's a tough guy too.

Jaylen Warren, the RB who saved Okla State in game after game this year was out against Baylor and claims he is now 100%, but the coaches are not saying that. Today the OC said, "having him back, at least we think he will be back, is going to make a big difference."
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Total Bowl Record through 12/30/21 - 6 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H Dogs 13-11* / Overs 18-9
2nd H Dogs 10-16-1 / Overs 13-14
Game Dogs 11-15* / Overs 16-11
*WKU was pick'em not counted as dog or fav
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Here's some more info that might be helpful (prior to end of Mich St/Pitt game):

Teams with a coach who stayed to coach a final game are 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Teams with interim coaches are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS (that includes a win both SU and ATS by Bob Stoops and he's not the average interim coach)

That is actually really good information to track over time. It is a little confusing though. Because a position coach who stayed to coach the bowl is also an interim if it is not the former or new head coach.

I counted 7 interim head coaches for the bowl game: Fresno St, FL, Nev, Tex Tech, VT, Ore, Okla
Interim 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS

I think there was just 1 coach who was promoted and named new HC who also coached bowl: ULL
Newly promoted HC in bowl game 1-0 SU & ATS

Could get confusing in how coaches are labeled I suppose.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
I counted 7 interim head coaches for the bowl game: Fresno St, FL, Nev, Tex Tech, VT, Ore, Okla

It just dawned on me I shouldn't have counted the Oregon/Oklahoma game at all since there was an interim on both sides. When I posted the totals above I gave Stoops a win, but failed to give Oregon a loss. I think the better way to deal with it is to ignore a game with interims on both sidelines.

Napier stayed and coached ULL in the bowl game even though he accepted the Florida job and teams in that situation were 2-0. I think that may be a good proposition long term because it focuses a team and staff on making sure they go out with a win

One other note I made to myself--be ready to bet Louisiana Tech next year. The great job Sonny Cumbie did at Texas Tech has been overlooked, but Tech immediately became much better the instant he took over even though it was mid-season. He made some personnel decisions that were perfect and they looked like a powerhouse by the end of the season. That guy can coach.
 

s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Thinking back, I know outcomes of a lot of games are decided one single plays or sequences before half, but maybe it seems like there are more in bowl games? The difference between winning or losing can be just one play or some odd sequence of events.

Rose Bowl - Ohio State kicks FG from the U02 on 2nd down with :09 left after being unstoppable moving the ball. Result = OSU by 3, Utah Covers and 2nd H Over 35.5 wins. A TD there and OSU game -4 wins.

Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State scores 2 TDs and 3 FGs with the 2nd H total set at 24. ND was shut out until scoring a TD with 1:05 left in the game. Result = 2nd H Over wins.

Citrus Bowl - Iowa punted on 4th-inches from their own 34 with a 17-13 lead and 3-1/2 minutes left. Iowa punts for a 35y net. Kentucky went downfield keyed by big plays to WanDale Robinson for the game winning TD with 1:48 left. Result = UK ML win, UK -3 push and 2nd H Over 20.5 wins. That was Iowa's first loss this year in games decided by 10pts or less (had been 7-0).

Outback Bowl - Arkansas and Penn State combined for 774 total yards, but only scored 34 combined points. There would be 4 empty Red Zone possessions contributing to 1st half, 2nd half and Game Unders. 1st H; PSU has FD at A19 - misses FG. Ark has FD at P11 - throws INT in EZ. PSU has FD at A14 - kicks FG from A15. Result = those 3 RZ possessions netted just 3 pts, they scored 17 1st H points on a 25 pt Over/Under. In the 2nd H; Ark had FD at P17 - kicks FG from P18, PSU has FD at A10 - throws INT in EZ. Ark has FD at P18 and then P08 - they start taking knees to kill the final minutes. Result = they scored just 17 2nd H pts on a 24pt Over/Under. That is a series of 6 RZ possessions that yieled just 6 points with 4 empties led to just 34 pts. Result = Game Under 51 wins.

Orange Bowl - Georgia scores 57y TD with 1:38 left in the 1st H. Result = 1st H Over 22.5 wins. Michigan scores 35y TD with 4:20 left. Result = 2nd H Michigan +1.5 wins. Georgia finished the game at the M11. Even a FG on that possession would've allowed Georgia to cover the 2nd H.

Sun Bowl - Mid 4th Q, after just failing on 4th down, Washington State D forces a Central Michigan punt. Wash State would go back down to score TD with 3:13 left. Result = 2nd H Over 23 wins.

Gator Bowl - After just INTing Rutgers at their own 2 yard line late in the 1st H, Wake Forest is on a 90+y drive in the final minutes. WF purposefully kills about :20-:30 when having a 4th-1 at the R11 to kick a FG rather than trying for a TD. Result = FG makes the HT score 20-10 allowing Rutgers+10.5 to win 1st H and 1st H Under 31.5 wins. Each team kicked a pair of RZ FGs as well keeping the Total Under.

Las Vegas Bowl - Arizona State punted the ball away with just under 10 minutes left in a 7 point game. ASU's O would never see the ball again. Wisconsin went on a 18play 90y clock killing drive. Wisconsin finished the game at the A07. Before taking two knees, Chryst appeared to yield to player petitioning on the sideline allowing one hand off run from the A09. On the final play, instead of a knee because there were more than a few seconds left, FB Chenal was handed the ball and initially ASU did not try to tackle him, seeing a brief opening Chenal started to run forward, but ASU tackled him to end the game. Result = ASU Game +7.5/8 wins

Peach Bowl - Late scores in both the 1st H and 2nd H determined wins and losses. Michigan State led 10-7 in the final couple minutes of the 1st H. After netting just 14y on their 3 prior possessions, Pitt throws a short pass that goes 52y and eventually scored TD with 1:01 left to lead 14-10. Result = Pitt+1.5 1st H wins. In the 2nd H Pitt gets a scoop-and-score TD just :20 seconds into the 3rd Q to put them up 21-10. In the 4th Q Mich State retook a 24-21 lead with 3 minutes left to go. Pitt is driving in the final seconds and throws an INT that is returned 78y for MSU TD with just :22 left. Result = 2nd H Over 24 wins.

Music City Bowl - Late plays determine outcome for 1st H and 2nd H/Game spreads. Purdue had just kicked their 3rd RZ FG of the 2nd Q to make the score 21-16 Vols lead. QB Hooker was sacked/fumbled with just :29 left at own 28. Any points by Purdue would allow them to cover the 1st H. Purdue scores TD with just :19 left. Result = Purdue +4 1st H wins. There were 7 lead changes in the 2nd H with a flurry of points in the 4th Q. The game goes to OT where Tennessee converted 4th-2 and then goes for 4th-goal from the P01. The RB extends the ball across the goal line, but referees had ruled forward progress stopped. Purdue kicks FG to win. Result = Purdue ML wins. Had Tennessee scored that TD and if they had held Purdue scoreless on the ensuing possession Tennessee 2nd H-4 would've won.

Mayo Bowl - Up 14 with under 1 minutes left, South Carolina kicks a 33y FG to make the score 38-21. Result = Game Over 57.5 wins.

Cheez-It Bowl - There were only 9 points scored in the 1st H, but there were 3 FG attempts from the RZ, two were made. Result = with 365 yards, all the FG attempts contributes to 1st H Under 21.5 winning. In the 2nd H, Clemson scored O TD then immediately got a pick-six to make the score 20-3. Iowa St kicked a late 3rd Q 45y FG to make it 20-6 and then a 4th Q TD. Result = 2nd H Over 21 wins.

Pinstripe Bowl - Virginia Tech was looking like they might not score any points at all, but managed a FG on a drive where they faked a FG at their own 31 and connected on an improbable 31y pass. Maryland led 21-3 late 2nd Q when VT converted 4th-1 then got a 34y pass down to the M04 leading to a VT TD. Result = 1st H Over 28 wins. In the 4th Q with a running clock, Maryland has a FD at the V24, 1-1/2 minutes to go. Maryland leads 47-10. Clock is running. Instead of taking a knee, Maryland hands it off and the RB bounces it outside for a 20y TD with just 1:12 to go. Result = 2nd H Over 27 wins.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl - Minnesota absolutely dominated the 1st Q vs WVU but didn't have the points to show for it. Min had FD at the W08, but missed a FG. Next series, Min would've had a FD at the W06 after a run, but RB fumbled and WVU recovered. Min eventually scored and went for 2. Leading 8-0 when WVU scored, and they decided to go for 2 as well, which was no good 8-6. The HT score would be 15-6. Result = 1st H Under 22 wins. Min O inefficiencies continue in the 2nd H, Gophers managed on a single FG. With 8 minutes left in the game Min took over and was running at will. They got down to the W08 with over 2min left but took knees even though they could not kill all the time. Result = WVU+4 2nd H wins.

There's more. I'm going to stop there though. I don't look at team totals, I'm sure there were ones there that won or lost by razor margins as well.

It's crazy sometimes when you go back and piece the plays together that contribute to one side winning or not.
 
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s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Total Bowl Record - 9 dog upsets (WKU was counted at a pick'em not an upset)
1st H Dogs 18-16* / Overs 21-15
2nd H Dogs 12-23-1 / Overs 16-19-1
Game Dogs 14-19-1* / Overs 18-18
*WKU and Ok State was pick'em not counted as dog or fav

That isn't any usable information really. Just something I wanted to do.

I think if I drilled down to determine say, if the team leading at HT was favored, how often did they extend their margin or how often did the team trailing close the margin to cover. Or if the game favorite was trailing at HT, how often did they comeback. That would provide some better context, but that is too much work for not much benefit other than curiosity.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Napier did not coach ULL in bowl game. He stayed to coach the SBC Title game, but not the bowl.
Well, that throws off all my numbers above concerning interim and leaving and staying coaches. I'm going to go back and look at it again and see if there's anything worth while from a one-year sample

One thing that struck me was the classic situation with Notre Dame and the new coach the players just loved. If Kelly had been the coach and gone into half time after dominating play the first two quarters Kelly and his staff would have been pissed off, pointing out every mistake every player made, how they failed to live up to their potential, and demanding they get serious and quit playing around

My guess is just the opposite happened. Everyone felt good, the new staff had only positive things to say, and players all patted each other on the back.

N Dame was an automatic bet for me under Kelly. It won't be under the new guy
 
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s--k

Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Looks like a fair point about ND. El Capo had brought up in-game how bad OkSt looked without Knowles 1stH which I thought they were a veteran enough staff and lineup for his absence not to matter. But it looked like it did. Or ND just had great prep and plan to start the game. To your point Tahoe, I think we saw coaching adjustments from that seasoned OSU staff and maybe some inexperience at HT from the ND side in the 2nd H.

There are many things that could be analyzed among coaching staffs to see how or if it mattered among all the bowl teams. Almost to the point I wouldn't know where to start really.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Well, that throws off all my numbers above concerning interim and leaving and staying coaches. I'm going to go back and look at it again and see if there's anything worth while from a one-year sample

One thing that struck me was the classic situation with Notre Dame and the new coach the players just loved. If Kelly had been the coach and gone into half time after dominating play the first two quarters Kelly and his staff would have been pissed off, pointing out every mistake every player made, how they failed to live up to their potential, and demanding they get serious and quit playing around

My guess is just the opposite happened. Everyone felt good, the new staff had only positive things to say, and players all patted each other on the back.

N Dame was an automatic bet for me under Kelly. It won't be under the new guy
Norte Dame can expect a lot less these upcoming years than they’ve been used to with Kelly.
 

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