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Bowl season props

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
So had one lean yesterday cause didn’t like any numbers, it was correct but I just wasn’t sure if he get enough carry’s so left it alone. Think we will have several on Thursday, just gotta hope I get the numbers I’m looking for, think we def will on at least a few.

Only game up so far the battle of carolina, won’t be any plays on that game for me, maybe if you have a different book than I’m using and get numbers on different running backs there could be a play. The problem for me is while I expect heels to do work on the ground the only unc rb I have number on is chandler and I’m not convinced he the lead back any longer, if you have a number on brooks might be worth consideration depending where it at. Scary has a split going im not sure bout either so makes it too tough. Ultimately I don’t know enough bout scary to get very involved anyways, brooks would be only guy I’d consider if he around 70 or less. Can’t wait till they start popping numbers up on vols/Purdue and even more importantly pitt/sparty!!
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
So had one lean yesterday cause didn’t like any numbers, it was correct but I just wasn’t sure if he get enough carry’s so left it alone. Think we will have several on Thursday, just gotta hope I get the numbers I’m looking for, think we def will on at least a few.

Only game up so far the battle of carolina, won’t be any plays on that game for me, maybe if you have a different book than I’m using and get numbers on different running backs there could be a play. The problem for me is while I expect heels to do work on the ground the only unc rb I have number on is chandler and I’m not convinced he the lead back any longer, if you have a number on brooks might be worth consideration depending where it at. Scary has a split going im not sure bout either so makes it too tough. Ultimately I don’t know enough bout scary to get very involved anyways, brooks would be only guy I’d consider if he around 70 or less. Can’t wait till they start popping numbers up on vols/Purdue and even more importantly pitt/sparty!!
Mine has no UNC rbs only Howell at 60.5 yards.

And Harris for SC at 61.5
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Mine has no UNC rbs only Howell at 60.5 yards.

And Harris for SC at 61.5

Think that game a easy pass, I’m not even annoyed at lack of options, even if I picked one out here I wouldn’t feel totally confident cause I have no feel for what this game gonna look like. Just gotta be patient, we gonna have a few money ones to pick off when rest the days numbers come out I think!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Music city bowl

Hooker over 229.5 pass yards

Hooker ov 1.5 td passes -190

Sorry still at casino no write up, planned on having these bet and back home to talk bout but running late and wanted to post them.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Hooker over 229.5 pass yards

Hooker ov 1.5 td passes -190

Sorry still at casino no write up, planned on having these bet and back home to talk bout but running late and wanted to post them.
Both look good to me.

I never did hear how that prop on McCaskill's rushing yards for Houston against Cincinnati turned out. Did you win that one?
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Both look good to me.

I never did hear how that prop on McCaskill's rushing yards for Houston against Cincinnati turned out. Did you win that one?

Hardly remember betting it but def not, Cincy opened that lead and he was basically out of game plan in 2nd half. Think that the last one I missed till Rodgers the other day. Pretty sure I’m gonna go back to well bama rb, still think it better to attack cincy w run game and pretty confident bama won’t fall behind! lol
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
dk not gonna give me any props on the pitt/sparty game, if you do have access to some i would suggest playing wr's from both teams over yards, pitt te Kull also.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Las Vegas bowl

allen over 123.5 rush yards... pretty big number and i know asu has solid defensive numbers vs the run but they dont face any rushing attacks like this one and if you look closer they have allowed the more physical backs in pac-12 to go over a 100, beavers BJ Baylor went for 150, thomas for utah only had 84 but they also gave up 49 to the backup and another 60 to qb on the ground, wazzu had 2 backs combine for big yardage, needless to say im pretty confident wiscy is gonna be able to establish their will and that will is allen going for over 150 as he has in 2 of their last 3 games. when wiscy goes to bowls they make a habit of physically dominating teams who are not used to this kind of power running attack, i dont think asu will be any different as the soft pac-12 cant prepare a team for this.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Las Vegas bowl

allen over 123.5 rush yards... pretty big number and i know asu has solid defensive numbers vs the run but they dont face any rushing attacks like this one and if you look closer they have allowed the more physical backs in pac-12 to go over a 100, beavers BJ Baylor went for 150, thomas for utah only had 84 but they also gave up 49 to the backup and another 60 to qb on the ground, wazzu had 2 backs combine for big yardage, needless to say im pretty confident wiscy is gonna be able to establish their will and that will is allen going for over 150 as he has in 2 of their last 3 games. when wiscy goes to bowls they make a habit of physically dominating teams who are not used to this kind of power running attack, i dont think asu will be any different as the soft pac-12 cant prepare a team for this.
I like it and don't forget Mertz has pigeon shit all over his helmet. I would rely on running the ball and my defense in this game if I'm Wisc. and let fucking Mertz just hand off, he blows.....
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Music city bowl

Hooker over 229.5 pass yards

Hooker ov 1.5 td passes -190

Sorry still at casino no write up, planned on having these bet and back home to talk bout but running late and wanted to post them.

Cash baby! Feels like that took a really long time after throwing for 166 in 1st qrtr. No worries tho, easy pickins!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
I like it and don't forget Mertz has pigeon shit all over his helmet. I would rely on running the ball and my defense in this game if I'm Wisc. and let fucking Mertz just hand off, he blows.....

Only thing I don’t like about having such a bum qb is it be nice to have a guy that can keep chains moving if they get a penalty or something.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
dont think they gonna give me props for the wake game either, freaking cowards man!! it like you find a way to beat these prick books and they want to take that away!!

so think ill be playing wake team total over 39.5 since wont have the chance to hit pass game props. this a late xmas present for wake, they go from a game against AM who was gonna smash them and put a bad taste on a great season to getting to show off against a bad rutgers team who wasnt even thinking they were gonna play another game, no way they can be prepared to stop this high powered wake attack, think wake goes out in style and caps their fine season with a bang.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
McNamara ov 1.5 tds at +160 is kinda tempting, think they might have to throw it in endzone. Uga run d nasty!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Las Vegas bowl

allen over 123.5 rush yards... pretty big number and i know asu has solid defensive numbers vs the run but they dont face any rushing attacks like this one and if you look closer they have allowed the more physical backs in pac-12 to go over a 100, beavers BJ Baylor went for 150, thomas for utah only had 84 but they also gave up 49 to the backup and another 60 to qb on the ground, wazzu had 2 backs combine for big yardage, needless to say im pretty confident wiscy is gonna be able to establish their will and that will is allen going for over 150 as he has in 2 of their last 3 games. when wiscy goes to bowls they make a habit of physically dominating teams who are not used to this kind of power running attack, i dont think asu will be any different as the soft pac-12 cant prepare a team for this.

straight cash baby!!

3-0 day brings us to 8-2 on our bowl props.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
gator bowl

Hartman ov 2.5 td passes... should be a all day showing out party for wake getting to face a bad rutgers team who allowed all kinds of crappy big10 passing attacks to go for yards and tds, go look at some the dudes who threw 3 tds on these guys, freaking Mertz even did it!! I prefer this over his pass yard total of 313, he could go over that but i think it about right as wake will prob do damage on the ground as well and im not sure they will look to embarrass a team who agreed to come in on short notice without practicing much so i could see them hang a nice number then kinda call off the dogs, combine that with the possibility rutgers offense doesnt do a lot (really have no idea what to expect from that side of the ball, wake defense is pretty bad but i dunno wtf we can expect from a team who took this game after thinking their season was over?) which could lead to short fields and no incentive to throw late it makes the yardage feel a little more dicey. with my new motto of less is more think it best just to stick with this one instead of chasing a bunch of numbers as i think the chances he throws 3+ tds are really freaking high!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
i think this sun bowl has potential to be another dont bring your defense type shootout. only concern is i see it could be somewhat chilly and rainy in el paso 2marro which could put a damper on wazzu passing attack, it certainly wont be central michigan defense stopping anything!! on the other side look at the numbers cmu rb Nichols has been putting up! i know it in the crappy ass MAC but im not sure wazzu been interested in playing much defense this year, he gets that crazy number of carries he been getting he shouldnt have any problem flying past 105,5!! thinking i want wazzu qb and cmu rushing attack.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
cotton bowl

brain robinson jr ov 75.5 rush yards.. whiffed on the last rb i tried facing cincy but it wasnt cause of cincy run defense as much it was game flow, for some reason holgerson seemed hell bent on trying to throw and it lead to cincy opening up a big lead which in turn meant no McCaskill after the half, 2 things we know, saban isnt a moron like holgerson and there no chance cincy opens up a big lead on bama to where they playing from behind!! it should be quite the opposite, bama game plan should include attacking the weakness of cincy d which is stopping the run and later on bama should be playing with a lead so robinson will be getting plenty of work salting the game away. i can see him getting this a number of ways, simply bama comes out and physically imposes themselves and we cash before halftime, or they throw early and then robinson gashes a worn down cincy team in the 4th. either way i dont see him having much trouble hitting the century mark in this one.

pierce over 56.5 receiving yards.. quite the contrary to bama cincy is gonna have no success running the ball on this bama d, the way they gonna have to attack them is thru the air (maybe ridder has some success on ground), we can debate how much success they will have doing so and honestly im not even sure but fact is they gonna have to throw a lot and this their number one guy who should see a bunch of targets. every one of cincy big games and games vs power 5 pierce has went over this number and it shouldnt be any different here, even if cincy gets crushed it will just mean they throwing his way deep into the 4th qrtr.. i expect him to see at least 8 targets, if im correct this number is seriously low, i think it pretty safe to expect he gets 70-80 yards even if cincy get whipped, more if they are able to hang in.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
gator bowl

Hartman ov 2.5 td passes... should be a all day showing out party for wake getting to face a bad rutgers team who allowed all kinds of crappy big10 passing attacks to go for yards and tds, go look at some the dudes who threw 3 tds on these guys, freaking Mertz even did it!! I prefer this over his pass yard total of 313, he could go over that but i think it about right as wake will prob do damage on the ground as well and im not sure they will look to embarrass a team who agreed to come in on short notice without practicing much so i could see them hang a nice number then kinda call off the dogs, combine that with the possibility rutgers offense doesnt do a lot (really have no idea what to expect from that side of the ball, wake defense is pretty bad but i dunno wtf we can expect from a team who took this game after thinking their season was over?) which could lead to short fields and no incentive to throw late it makes the yardage feel a little more dicey. with my new motto of less is more think it best just to stick with this one instead of chasing a bunch of numbers as i think the chances he throws 3+ tds are really freaking high!!

Ya already know what it is. CASH BABY!! 2 more to go today!! 9-2 so far on bowl props.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Robinson cashes half way thru 2nd qrtr! Bang bang. 10-2 on bowl props.

Not feeling so hot bout pierce tho, every time they have looked his way pass got batted at line. Guess still hope cause cincy gonna have to throw a lot still.,
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Taking a stab at Bowers over 4.5 rec (-105)

I really didn’t like anything in this one. Really tough to find the defensive weakness either team can exploit with any their offensive players. I thought bout finding something for that youngster who been getting little play in passing game out of Michigan backfield but pretty much a coin flip whether he sees meaningful action or not. I don’t hate McNamara over 1.5 td +160 cause think they prob have to throw it in, but I was worried it might come off truck play/someone else throwing it. End of day I felt like more value on Michigan ml. Gl
 

booksbestfriend

On Johnny's Shitlist
I really didn’t like anything in this one. Really tough to find the defensive weakness either team can exploit with any their offensive players. I thought bout finding something for that youngster who been getting little play in passing game out of Michigan backfield but pretty much a coin flip whether he sees meaningful action or not. I don’t hate McNamara over 1.5 td +160 cause think they prob have to throw it in, but I was worried it might come off truck play/someone else throwing it. End of day I felt like more value on Michigan ml. Gl
Too EZ
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Taking a stab at Bowers over 4.5 rec (-105)

i havnt been getting reception props at dk, if ya have them today i would def take a look at irish te mayer, they hung a pretty tight number for yards i think at 74.5, lean over but dont think there a ton of room, i def like him to have 6-7 catches tho.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
fiesta bowl:

Jack Coan ov 219.5 pass yards.. i think we getting a pretty attainable number here thanks to okie state stingy defensive rankings, no question this d is really good but the overall passing yardage against is a product of teams they have faced, for instance they have faced a very good Baylor team twice but Baylor mo isnt to throw the ball all over so of course they not gonna have high passing totals, if you recall the second game tho bears had their backup in and he was incredibly successful when he did throw. Then i think it important to look at what kind of passing numbers the solid passing teams the cowboys have faced put up, sooners freshman williams went for 252, purdy for isu went over 300 which isnt exactly what isu does best, boise Bachmeier threw for 242, even tulsa qb exceeded this mark. Enter coan and irish who average passing for 263 a game despite throwing on less than half their attempts, the important thing here is i think ND will be best serve to throw more in this game as their best rb has opted out and okie st a really tough team to run on anyways. matchup dictates irish would be best served throwing the ball more than normal and getting their all world te involved as much as possible, given that along with the fact we getting a very depressed number think this a pretty good play as i expect Coan throws for much closer to 250 in a game he gonna have to play well for the irish to win. (i suspect it a pretty good game that could go either way, certainly wouldnt hurt our cause if irish were trailing late but i think this another number we can hit a variety of ways pertaining to game flow),


i think if you wanted another prop in this game warren rush total is interesting, i certainly lean to ov 78.5. i think the fact he now healthy and choosing to play this game points to him most likely seeing a pretty heavy workload. everything i have read points to him being healthy and i assume incredibly fresh since he didnt get a lot of carries down the stretch. the concern is simply irish run d has been pretty solid and okie st run blocking metrics are not real favorable so it a pass for me as im really trying to stick with only plays i feel are very high percentage, im just putting my thoughts out there as i know some of you like to make a lot of plays! lol. simply put game flow could have a pretty big impact on this one so if you like the cowboys i think this a good play, i think he will need a lot of rushes to get here but i do think gundy goal will be to get him a bunch of chances as long as game flow corr-operates.

as i mentioned above if you have reception props available i would def look to see what Mayer number is, anything 6.5 or less i would hit the over, i lean his over yards but i think it a really good number so not a ton of value (dont see him blowing past it) but he should see plenty of targets, his yardage will just come down to his yards per reception and it just close imo so it a pass for me...
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
citrus bowl:

Rodriguez under 87.5 rush yards...full disclosure i have not played a under yet all bowl season and i have only played a handful the entire year, usually my way of going about it is just to pass on unders and wait for a over im confident in. i have had about 3-4 really strong under leans in the bowls and every one i wish i would have played as they all been correct, certainly doesnt mean this one will be but im not worried that i cant cap/play unders. bottom line we running out of time and if we want any more plays might have to be a under or 2 (still waiting on props for the rose bowl and sugar, think ill have one or 2 strong plays if numbers come out where i hope), anyways about this play.

There no doubt this kid been a stud and the uk run game is very good averaging the 2nd most yards per carry in the country as a team! i could argue that might be a bit inflated due to comp despite playing in the sec but make no mistake the run game is good. So why under other than the fact iowa plays some really good run defense? it all just comes down to numbers, rodriguez doesnt get the carries of your typical workhorse backs as they share the work at uk, he generally more around the 16-18 carry mark than up into the 20s, in fact he has only gotten 20+ in 3 games this year and only once since week 4 and that was against a faced paced Vols team where everyone runs a lot of plays! there no doubt this game will look nothing like that! iowa is gonna do what they do and turn this into a grind with as few possessions as possible. I feel like it incredibly fair to assume 18 carries for him in this game and that might be a tad generous imo, so then it just comes down to what should we expect in those carries? imo there no chance in hell you see him avg the 7-8 ypc he has been vs some weak run d's but im willing to give uk and him a bumo over iowa average allowed cause this a very good rush attack. imo 4.3 per carry a pretty fair expected number and with 18 carries that would put him at 77.4 which is where i believe this number should be. honestly that my high as im not convinced he will even get to 18 carries and there is certainly a world where uk turns it over a few times, gets behind and is forced to throw more. Iowa has faced plenty of really good rushing attacks in the big10 and the one constant is the only backs who have exceeded this number against him did so by getting well over 20 carries and i feel like there a very good chance rodriguez wont get to that kind of number so it makes this a really nice play even if it is a under!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
These gonna be short and sweet cause at casino on phone.

Sugar bowl:

Smith over 85.5 rush. way to attack ol miss 3-3-5 is to pound the Rock, bears love pounding the rock so long as this stays close I think smith will go for over 100.

Corral over 256.5 passing., the way to attack bears is in the air, as you seeing w okie lite some big 12 teams got some better pass d numbers than they truly are, if ya look everyone with decent pass game hit this number on bears. Only concern I have is corral is liable to become a runner in any game that when his yardage numbers are down, I would suspect bears very good defensive coach will have a spy to avoid that and it will have to come thru the air, should be no shortage of plays in this one for him to get there. Plus ya gotta root for the kid for staying and playing!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Rose bowl:, (these 2 smaller than sugar but we need action right?).,

Thomas over 87.5 rush., I havnt been sold on osu run d all year, sparty was really the only time it looked great. Utes qb brings the zone read option and osu has struggled mightily with that!! Only concern the qb has ton of the rushing yards why it a smaller play. Also gotta worry how interested osu is to be here, if they not the physicality of utes be a problem.

Smith-njigba over 111.5 receiving., maybe this is a stretch, I mean it a huge number and while he the only one left he obviously gonna see bunch of targets; the concern is I would think utes would focus on taking him away. Thing is I have seen other number 1s have big days vs utes and I’m not sure osu gonna be able to run much, I trust in stroud to play a good game and to do that this kid needs to play big!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Cowboys just being stupid now, they should get back to running with warren a little bit. They only down 1 score!! I’m telling ya I know sanders if they keep throwing every down he gonna fuck up!!
 

survive&advance

Nothing but net MFer!
Rose bowl:, (these 2 smaller than sugar but we need action right?).,

Thomas over 87.5 rush., I havnt been sold on osu run d all year, sparty was really the only time it looked great. Utes qb brings the zone read option and osu has struggled mightily with that!! Only concern the qb has ton of the rushing yards why it a smaller play. Also gotta worry how interested osu is to be here, if they not the physicality of utes be a problem.

Smith-njigba over 111.5 receiving., maybe this is a stretch, I mean it a huge number and while he the only one left he obviously gonna see bunch of targets; the concern is I would think utes would focus on taking him away. Thing is I have seen other number 1s have big days vs utes and I’m not sure osu gonna be able to run much, I trust in stroud to play a good game and to do that this kid needs to play big!!
On these too. JSN should get a lot of targets
 

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