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BG's 2006 FIBA World Champs

bad gambler

Well-Known Member
Should be an awesome tournament - I probably follow the Euroleague/ULEB Cup and the main Euro leagues more closely than the NBA and based on the early lines the bookies have not shown them any love so looking to exploit that.

Of course I know a bit about the Kiwis and Aussies as well lol

Just the one play for me for the moment, will add some comments about it soon.

Spain to win - (+850) (2 units)

I'm still shopping around for the best line I can get for USA not to win/field to win.

:shake:
 
So is Turkolu not playing in this?? What big names are out.. also what are your opinions of Panama, isnt Nolan Richardson their coach?
 
USA is winning, I'm not being a dick, I actually just got back from the future and wanted to tell you the USA won the FIBA and that the rest of the world was in awe of the American game.:wacka wacka:
 
scourge said:
USA is winning, I'm not being a dick, I actually just got back from the future and wanted to tell you the USA won the FIBA and that the rest of the world was in awe of the American game.:wacka wacka:

Bro there is USA available at -220 for you to pound the shit out of if you feel so strongly about their chances - but just remember the refs won't allow players to take 5 steps in International ball, this is the real deal ;)
 
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abcs--thelegend said:
So is Turkolu not playing in this?? What big names are out.. also what are your opinions of Panama, isnt Nolan Richardson their coach?

There is no Turkoglu, no Okur, no Besok, no Turckan - that is basically your starting line up right there for Turkey, stick a fork in them and fade their ass all tournament
 
bad gambler said:
Spain to win - (+850) (2 units)
This Spanish team IMO is the most balanced squad in the tournament. They have all the key positions covered and most importantly they play as a cohesive unit and a TEAM. All these players know each other really well with most of them part of Spain's "golden generation" junior Spanish National teams of the late 90's early 2000's.

Their leadup form, albeit warmup games say it all - they've smashed everyone they have faced, most impressively their 20 point man handling of the Olympic champions Argentina. They came 4th in the 2005 Euro championships however they were missing their key big man in Gasol. I would have hit this one harder if Vazquez was playing as well to complement Gasol, but the Malaga big man Garbajosa is a very handy replacement.

Adding:

USA NOT to win the Championships - (+240) (4 units)

lol I was debating on whether or not to post this one on an American site but will stick to my guns.

There is no denying this version of the Dream Team look better than the recent teams. Mike K as head coach will ensure there is no BS and the actual squad defintiely seem to "want it more" if you believe what you read in the press in the leadup to this tournament - their attitude is vastly different to that of the clowns that represented US in the 04 Olympics.

But for me it comes down to certain fundamentals:-

* They will be subject to defensive patterns and intensity different to what they are used to in the NBA by the Euros. There is nobody better in the world than the Europeans technically on the defensive end.
* Adjustment to International rules - differences as detailed as distance of the 3 point arc, dimensions of the key, 4 x 10min quarters, 5 PF's allowed instead of the 6 PF's in the NBA and interpretation of "travelling" - NBA officials are ridiculously more liberal in their tolerance of letting them go. Essentially in the NBA you are allowed a foot to "pivot" with when you come to stop - none of that BS allowed in International rules where when you come to a stop you DO NOT have a pivot foot allowed. This is a HUGE difference IMO, how many times have you guys seen No 23 and Wade get away with an extra step every game? They do it all the time.

Basically what I am highlighting here is that the US players will be taken out of their comfort zone with these small nuances in officials' interpretations and rules.

Other factors I've taken into account:
* The Europeans can burn the Americans with the 3 ball - I've watched enough of the Euroleague to know there are some incredible sharp shooters in the Euro teams.
* Will the US play a pass game? There is no denying they have the most talented roster out there but looking through their list there are too many natural shooters and no real distributors with perhaps the exception of Hinrich.

I've stopped short of hitting this one for 5 units only on the basis of the differences I have outlined between this US team and the ones of the last couple of years.

I'll most likely be adding Greece on the outright as well, just trying to get the best line at the moment. They are without doubt the best defensive unit in the competition with probably the best defensive player in the competition in Diamantidis. Gone are the days where US can walk up and rely simply on offense to get it done.

Let the games begin

good luck :shake:
 
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This should be a great tournament. The odds on USA team are too low to bet on them outright, even though we all know if these guys really wanted, they would beat the crap out of everyone.

However, I can't understand the price for Argentina (11.0), Serbia(40) and France (30), these should be value bets numero uno if you ask me.

I agree that Spain could win it as well, but the price isn't luring as these 3.

I'll join the discussions here once the tournament starts.

Cheers.
 
Satyr - Argentina's lead up form has been worrying for me hence my reason for not including them in my card. However looking through their squad there is no denying their pedigree and depth.

Look forward to reading your thoughts on this tournament - please feel free to comment on anything I have written above as well in more detail :shake:
 
That's exactly what I'm thinking,Argentina (provided they have all their boys, Manu, Scola, Delfino, Wolkowyski, Nocioni up and healthy) will step up on a big competition such as this one.

Hence the odds might be a bit too big, but you never know. France also shouldn't be treated as pushovers, same as Serbia.



Your writeup on USA not to win the tournament is very good, informative for readers that aren't into hoops that much, and you do have a good case there. I also believe Spain should be one of the favs to win it, having a balanced squad and rather deep I'd say.

I'll be more into it a few days before it starts so expect some picks and previews then.

hopefully it'll be a good tournament for all of us. :shake:
 
BG - New Zealand without Dickel manhandled Qatar pretty easily, so if you're rating Greece at a shot to win it all, why cant they cover a spread whose size is surely there to induce people to take Qatar?
 
Locking in these one in early....

Lithuania to cover -7.5 v Turkey - (-110) (2 units)

+

Australia to cover +8 v Brazil - (-110) (3 units)

+

Greece to cover -31.5 v Qatar - (-110) (4 units) (best bet***)

Will add some comments about these two bit later.

good luck
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
BG - New Zealand without Dickel manhandled Qatar pretty easily, so if you're rating Greece at a shot to win it all, why cant they cover a spread whose size is surely there to induce people to take Qatar?


hehe you just posted before me ;)

Really looking closely at your boys to cover the 18 odd agasint Spain as well - Penny and Jones as a 1-2 punch can definitely make this team very competitive against the big boys IMO....
 
BG - I was about to say, you answered it indirectly. I forgot from the last tourney, do points differentials have any bearing on teams tied for places?
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
BG - I was about to say, you answered it indirectly. I forgot from the last tourney, do points differentials have any bearing on teams tied for places?

BC I'm going to have to get back to you on that - but one would think points diff would act as the breaker for tied spots
 
bad gambler said:
Locking in these one in early....

Lithuania to cover -7.5 v Turkey - (-110) (2 units)
This is more of a fade Turkey play - their roster has been gutted missing basically their whole starting lineup.

bad gambler said:
Australia to cover +8 v Brazil - (-110) (3 units)
With Bruton back in the lineup afer missing the series against the kiwis, the Aussies definitely look a better unit on the offensive end as shown in their recent performance in the Stankovic Cup where they ran a full strength Greece team close, beat France and go done at the buzzer by China.

I've upgraded the above to a 4 unit play and now adding:

Australia to beat Brazil - (+305) (1 unit)

bad gambler said:
Greece to cover -31.5 v Qatar - (-110) (4 units) (best bet***)
Best bet in my eyes along with Australia - Greece will not give the Qataris any free shots this afernoon, their defense is stifling and it's a matter of a backdoor moose with this bet. Qatar recently played NZ and got hammered by 20 odds points. Whilst they were missing one of their key players, playing Greece is a huge step up, a team coming into this tournament on a massive high after winning the Stankovic Cup, destroying Germany in the final by 37 points.

Adding:

Greece to win by the biggest margin of all teams on Day 1 - (+140) (1.5 units)

I see Puero Rico being much more competitive against USA than the Qataris against the Greeks. An ousider may be S&M over Nigeria, but they have brought a very inexperienced and young squad - I'll take my chances with the Euro champs.



good luck :shake:
 
BG,
you got a fantastic line on Spain cause now Bet365 has made them the 2nd favorite behind the US at only freaking +140!!! how crap is that???

Either way i really like the Spaniards and their depth, plus they play as a team unlike the Americans who just need to get frustrated and Wade, Bron, Anthony will all hog the ball.

Good Luck on your plays, i might play Greece but i'm a little wary right now, just want to take it easy for now!
 
Toronto_Mike said:
BG,
you got a fantastic line on Spain cause now Bet365 has made them the 2nd favorite behind the US at only freaking +140!!! how crap is that???

Either way i really like the Spaniards and their depth, plus they play as a team unlike the Americans who just need to get frustrated and Wade, Bron, Anthony will all hog the ball.

Good Luck on your plays, i might play Greece but i'm a little wary right now, just want to take it easy for now!


Mike you sure about that Spain line? I'm still seeing around +700 everywhere? :confused:
 
aussie aussie aussie! oi oi oi! played them in game at -2.5 had to hold my breath for a moment there but nicely done for the Boomers!
 
Well USA only win by 10 points, after fooling around in the final qtr

Greece are going smash that margin without any problem :wacka wacka:
 
Day 1 Recap

Australia +8 = WON (+3.60 units)
Australia ML = WON (+3.05 units)

Greece -31.5 = LOSS (-4 units)
Lithuania -7.5 = LOSS (-2 units)
Greece to win by the biggest margin of all teams on Day 1:
I've just re- read what I posted and just realised I was not clear in terms of what this bet acually meant. This was a prop bet that involved 3 games, S&M v Nigeria, Greece v Qatar & USA v Puerto Rico. Greece actually ended up recording the biggest margin of the three winners so my bet is a win, however given I was vague about the details in my writeup I'm grading it at a loss for my record purposes in my signature. (-1.5 units)

Total: -0.85 units




 
Toronto_Mike said:
can you believe the amount of underdogs that covered the spread tonite!?

Very much so Mike

I've learnt from my mistake though - the big guns KNOW they have already qualified to the next round so basically tool around for a half and then when they feel like it decide to play. Greece prime example, down by 16 odd against the freaking Qataris mid way through the 2nd qtr and then ended the qtr on a 29-6 run, and basically cruised the 2nd half playing their bench.

That Lithuanian performance was pitiful - previously played each other 14 times and never lost, then when they play them against arguably their worst roster lose, even after having a 40-24 advantage on the boards.
 
How about those Serbs -26 favorites and lose by pretty much that score line to Nigeria.

I was not impressed with the US whatsoever. Their defense is horrendous and they can get a little too flashy at points. I just don't think they have the killer instinct.

I still like my bet for a European team to win it, but now think that Spain and Greece are the primary contenders. Lithuania just shat themselves. We'll see how 2nd games turn up, too many of these teams are just sitting their key players the 4th Q when a huge lead is built up and that can a little too dangerous for any huge spread.

Get em again tomorrow mate!
 
scourge said:
Does Nigeria even now how to dribble the ball?

They have about 3 guys from the NCAA.

Oguchi
Ibekwe
Akgonan (Sp) from Wazzou

So i figured they can still at least score a point but damn to cover a -26 spread and to even win by nearly that much against Serbia? :bow:
 
bad gambler said:
Very much so Mike

I've learnt from my mistake though - the big guns KNOW they have already qualified to the next round so basically tool around for a half and then when they feel like it decide to play. Greece prime example, down by 16 odd against the freaking Qataris mid way through the 2nd qtr and then ended the qtr on a 29-6 run, and basically cruised the 2nd half playing their bench.

That Lithuanian performance was pitiful - previously played each other 14 times and never lost, then when they play them against arguably their worst roster lose, even after having a 40-24 advantage on the boards.

BG, I ended up skipping the first games simply to see how things panned out, and I think you're right on point. But now we have those results to weigh up teams, and also now people have been conditioned that its dangerous to lay the points, its time to look at some of the small Favs.

My eye is on Nigeria. Winning SU with a +26/.5 spread means you cant lay it all at the feet of their opponent's poor play. Now they're -5.5 against losers of 12 in a row Venezuela, missing those 2 key players.
 
Day 2 and I have a couple that I like, feeling there will be a correction from yesterday where the dogs ruled the roost....

Greece to cover -3.5 v Lithuania - (-110) (4 units)

+

Australia to beat Turkey - (+115) (3 units)

+

France to cover -2.5 v S&M - (-110) (3 units)

I may upgrade France if Australia win. Just got to head out but will provide some comments on the late games.

good luck :shake:
 
Day 2 Recap

Greece -3.5 = WON (+3.60 units)
Australia ML = LOSS (-3.00 units)

France -2.5 = WON (+2.70 units)

Total: +3.30 units

Australia blow a 14 point halftime lead, Greece shoot 21/41 from the FT line and need OT to beat Lithuania, France scrape home after playing like shit for the whole game.

Now who wants to bet on this tournament?


Hell yeah, I aint a degenerate for nothing :wacka wacka:

Be back for more dizziness tomorrow :shake:
 
I would love to bet on this tournament, but because they had to play in fuckin' China I don't get to see any of the games live. I did catch the US this morning at 6:30 am.

I think your really, really, under-estimating the USA. This isn't like any team they have fielded in recent years. Say all you want about the international rules, the 3 point shooting of the european teams, etc. When it comes down to it, when shit is really on the line, NOBODY can stop Wade and James. They can get to the basket WHENEVER they want.
 
The USA is NOT going to lose this tourney. How in gods name can a team with Wade, Bosh, Melo, DHoward and Paul not win any tourney?

Tht line up alone is no competition for any other team a country could field.
 
smh212 said:
I think your really, really, under-estimating the USA. This isn't like any team they have fielded in recent years. Say all you want about the international rules, the 3 point shooting of the european teams, etc. When it comes down to it, when shit is really on the line, NOBODY can stop Wade and James. They can get to the basket WHENEVER they want.

scourge said:
The USA is NOT going to lose this tourney. How in gods name can a team with Wade, Bosh, Melo, DHoward and Paul not win any tourney?

Tht line up alone is no competition for any other team a country could field.

Firstly I did acknowledge this team is different to the the previous ones US have put out on the floor. But what I am saying is that there if you stack them up against a Spain, Greece, or Argentina, there is too much value in taking the field to pass up.
 
USA hasnt played a real solid team yet.. lets not overrate these wins!!
 
Just the one for Day 3 at the moment, looking closely at the NZ-Angola game as well.....


Spain to cover -7.5 v Germany - (-110) (3.5 units)

Spain effectively played their bench yesterday in the 44 point win against Panama with one eye on this fixture no doubt.

good luck :shake:
 
New Zealand's offense is god awful. They live and die by the 3 (= Phil Jones/Piero Cameron). Angola destroyed Japan, who themselves gave Germany a far greater run for their money than NZ did.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
New Zealand's offense is god awful. They live and die by the 3 (= Phil Jones/Piero Cameron). Angola destroyed Japan, who themselves gave Germany a far greater run for their money than NZ did.

Pretty much agree - if I do decide to play this I'll be taking Angola S/U at + odds :shake:
 
Day 3 Recap

Spain-7.5 = WON (+3.15 units)
Angola ML = WON (+1.20 units)

Total: +4.35 units

That will work

After watching the Spain v Germany game I'm bit pissed off I didn't hit that Spain outright a little harder. Simply an awesome display by them tonight.

I've lined up a maximum 5 unit play on tomorrow's card, just checking a couple of things before I unleash.

:shake:


 
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