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lvmike32

Well-Known Member
Hey all, don't post much as I don't cap. When I do post because I think I see some great play it always loses. So buyer beware.

But I've tailed some professional level cappers for years on here and on the other site in all sports and have done pretty well. It's not that hard to know when someone is professional level, like a Crimson K. I've decided to bet seriously again this season by tailing some of these cappers who have consistently won year after year. Since it will be a high bet volume in CF my standard play will be 1u out of a 150u bankroll (.67%) with 5u the max bet on any one game. I set up an account at Circa and will also refund my accounts at BOL and BM (it's been a few years and I have to learn how to use Crypto now - seems that's all they want to use now).

By far, the most successful cappers I've seen over the years have been in CF. And a few have started posting their '22 Week 0/1, GOY and RSW plays. So I'm bored shitless quarantining here at home after getting COVID for the first time so I thought I'd post a few tidbits and get the CF comments/projections flowing. So here we go on plays so far and random thoughts.

- One capper is REALLY down on Wyoming this season and has already put fade plays in on Illinois -9 and Tulsa -1 in Weeks 0/1. Illinois up to 10 now and I've tailed both of these.
- Same capper is very high on Wash St. as a surprise team this year with their new QB and new OC/offense. He took out some early 100/150 to 1 odds for them to win Pac 12. Very down on Colorado too, as are most.
- Same capper is also very high on Utah and has played the Florida game Over 52.5 already. Thinks Utah is looking to run the table this year. I tailed this Over.
- Seems to me it's Bama, GA and OSU and then everyone else and the Natty odds reflect that. I've made bets on USC/Utah to win Natty on chance they might be the 4th and then I could hedge.
- USC obviously got insane WR talent transferred in - seems how quickly Riley can rebuild the lines and especially the D will determine when they get back to Natty level.
- Saw Tahoe (who I tail blindly) say in another thread on here that he plans to bet 1/10th his normal unit size this year due to all the uncertainty with NIL, Portal, etc. So worries me it might be a bad year for me to start betting seriously again LOL. The cappers I've read so far this year seem to have studied all this new activity, and also the Spring games, very extensively. Reminds me of the Grind For Mine detailed scouting reports in CBB in the past. So I'm obviously hopeful these guys have the same success level as in past years - maybe even better? Who knows maybe Bama, GA and OSU will just destroy teams and all we have to do is bet their 1H line?? will look for some obvious trend early and jump on it and pound it.

that's it for now. Very light so far - don't like to tie up money on RSW and such. Don't see much value in the Natty and Heisman odds worlds.

Would love to hear any thoughts the great cappers have here so far. thanks
 

survive&advance

Nothing but net MFer!
I like utah a bit this year, took their rsw over and to win pac 12. I’m gonna look more into Wyoming but I’d be inclined to blindly agree as I had their rsw over last year and lost- they were set up nicely and still were pretty underwhelming
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
thanks guys. Still early - haven't seen much new since I posted this. Think with NBA and NHL now over it will start to pick up. Sounds like Steel's mag just came out.

Survive, the capper I note also played Utah RSW Over 9, which is a no brainer if he thinks they have a chance to run the table. I haven't played it but probably will - they'd have to go 8 - 4 to lose. I think Pac 12 will be down except for USC. If they beat Florida in the opener think they get there pretty easy, barring catastrophic injury.

I wanted Clemson Under 10.5 but Circa came out with just 10. One capper I follow says DJ didn't look much better in Spring vs last year. Thinks their Offense will struggle again this year. They do have an easy schedule though. So need a win on 10, not push. I'll see what BOL and BM have when I fund those.

thanks guys
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Always appreciate reading through threads like this as they definitely make the time fly by a lot faster. Thanks for taking the time to post and best of luck this season!

CB
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
thanks guys.
PC - probably join you soon. Some very sharp cappers liking Utah this season.
CB - thanks. Always enjoy reading your plays.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
thanks guys. Still early - haven't seen much new since I posted this. Think with NBA and NHL now over it will start to pick up. Sounds like Steel's mag just came out.

Survive, the capper I note also played Utah RSW Over 9, which is a no brainer if he thinks they have a chance to run the table. I haven't played it but probably will - they'd have to go 8 - 4 to lose. I think Pac 12 will be down except for USC. If they beat Florida in the opener think they get there pretty easy, barring catastrophic injury.

I wanted Clemson Under 10.5 but Circa came out with just 10. One capper I follow says DJ didn't look much better in Spring vs last year. Thinks their Offense will struggle again this year. They do have an easy schedule though. So need a win on 10, not push. I'll see what BOL and BM have when I fund those.

thanks guys
Good stuff, like to hear @HUNT in hear regarding Clemson.
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
thanks BAR, think Clemson goes 3-0 in their non-con (Furman, LT, SCar). Losses would likely be to Miami and ND if they come. Not a lot of cushion. But if they're down again this year, then maybe losing to the likes of WF, NC St. and FSU come into play. So probably won't play it. And if I do, I'd have to win on a 10-2 season not push for the risk. Think I saw Hunt and others actually high on Clemson in the RSW thread on here. Again, I'm pretty sure I'm going to be a no play on this one.
 

M.W.

Parties like it's 1979
Clemson has three 5*'s in the QB room. If DJ isn't getting the job done, someone else will. Clemson has four games to get the QB situation straightened out before the game versus NC State. Another, perhaps bigger concern is the OL, where we unexpectedly lost Rayburn (career-ending injury) and Trotter (PED, apparently) at center.
 
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2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I love coming in here around start of august and reading the die hard guys that follow ncaa fb year round! I’m way to busy with baseball to keep up with all the offseason shit and spring games. I’ll do bunch of reading then cram in a few days of studying as we get close but I’m more a figure shit out as it goes kinda guy!! Certainly helps we have posters who I respect that post a ton of stuff in offseason!! Can’t wait! Although I’ll be sad to see mlb pitcher props go away! im super pumped to do a full season of ncaa fb props as kinda crushed those 2nd half last season and the bowl games!!! Looking toward to getting back talking college fb with easily the sharpest group of folks in gambling forum world!!
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
Thought I'd give a little update here with less than a month to go. Posting activity is picking up (on the other site mainly) and more cappers I intend to tail are starting to post but few have made plays. I still need to set up BOL and BM - all Circa now. Just lazy on learning Bitcoin. I miss the old days where I could join BOL by sending some old lady in Costa Rica a Western Union or Cashiers Check LOL.

Anyway, here is what I have so far and also what I'm sensing from all my reading. Juice is always reasonable (i.e. -110 to -125) unless I post otherwise.

-Illinois -9.5 (buy 1/2) vs. Wyoming (Wyoming Fade)
-Tulsa -1 vs Wyoming (Wyoming Fade)
-Utah/FL O52.5
-Utah O9 RSW (joining several sharps on this one)
-Air Force O8.5 RSW (capper hits about 70% LT on RSW and loves this one best this season - he got 7.5 few months ago at some obscure book but thinks AF could be favored in every game they play). Looks like 8 is long gone so decided to join. Also, on this capper - he got a lot of better RSW lines early a few months ago at obscure books so I'm not tailing most of them as I can't get the lines (i.e. Ball St U5.5 vs U5 is what I can get). Not worth the added risk and tying up the bankroll to me.
-Org St. U6.5 RSW (same capper tail)
-Boise +4
-Auburn U6 RSW (beware my own play - thought Harsin was disaster hire and think this season proves it out - and SEC West brutal)
-Vandy -6.5 (1/2 unit) (Hawaii fade) And Vandy's going to be the top program in US soon according to their coach.
-UConn +28.5 (1/2 unit, Buy 1/2)

That's it so far. Seems Arkansas -7 and Houston -4.5 are pretty sharp plays though none of my guys have bet them. Houston TT O30ish seems like will a play too.

Been looking at BOL lines and definitely some differences with Circa - worth the shopping as is always the case.

As always, would love to hear comments and feedback.
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Thought I'd give a little update here with less than a month to go. Posting activity is picking up (on the other site mainly) and more cappers I intend to tail are starting to post but few have made plays. I still need to set up BOL and BM - all Circa now. Just lazy on learning Bitcoin. I miss the old days where I could join BOL by sending some old lady in Costa Rica a Western Union or Cashiers Check LOL.

Anyway, here is what I have so far and also what I'm sensing from all my reading. Juice is always reasonable (i.e. -110 to -125) unless I post otherwise.

-Illinois -9.5 (buy 1/2) vs. Wyoming (Wyoming Fade)
-Tulsa -1 vs Wyoming (Wyoming Fade)
-Utah/FL O52.5
-Utah O9 RSW (joining several sharps on this one)
-Air Force O8.5 RSW (capper hits about 70% LT on RSW and loves this one best this season - he got 7.5 few months ago at some obscure book but thinks AF could be favored in every game they play). Looks like 8 is long gone so decided to join. Also, on this capper - he got a lot of better RSW lines early a few months ago at obscure books so I'm not tailing most of them as I can't get the lines (i.e. Ball St U5.5 vs U5 is what I can get). Not worth the added risk and tying up the bankroll to me.
-Org St. U6.5 RSW (same capper tail)
-Boise +4
-Auburn U6 RSW (beware my own play - thought Harsin was disaster hire and think this season proves it out - and SEC West brutal)
-Vandy -6.5 (1/2 unit) (Hawaii fade) And Vandy's going to be the top program in US soon according to their coach.
-UConn +28.5 (1/2 unit, Buy 1/2)

That's it so far. Seems Arkansas -7 and Houston -4.5 are pretty sharp plays though none of my guys have bet them. Houston TT O30ish seems like will a play too.

Been looking at BOL lines and definitely some differences with Circa - worth the shopping as is always the case.

As always, would love to hear comments and feedback.
Great stuff, appreciate the post as always. I have all my early leans done but won’t be funding my accounts (going with just BOL and BM this year) til I get back from my upcoming vacation (post 8/16). Will be putting in plays right after I make my deposits so my thread should be up right around that time. Again, thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts.

Spoiler alert - Utah State will probably make my card both of the first two weeks.
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
CB, thanks. Love reading your thread in season, especially because you bet early. UConn LOL - almost passed out when I saw one of my guys post it though it was only a 1/2 unit thank goodness. Obviously they are awful but I guess the question is whether Utah St. should be almost 30 point favorite over anyone. But if you're considering playing them vs. Bama then I can certainly see why you'd play them vs. UConn. My rule when I decide to tail someone is to go all-in. I don't pick and choose - just follow 100%. I know I'm a loser over the long term so I don't try to overrule anyone. But GL if you bet them. I'll probably have 25 to 50 units in play every week so 1/2 unit on UConn is pretty inconsequential. Thanks for stopping in and posting and have a great vacation.
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
Thought I'd update here for Week 0 start tomorrow. Tailing 4 cappers who have been consistent winners year after year. Also reading just about every thread out there too. Here's a little summary of Week 0.

NW/Neb - no play for me. NW was up to 13.5 and got hit yesterday - seeing 11, 11.5 now. Seems like U26 1H and U for game are most popular.
Char/FAU - no play for me. Mostly seeing Char +7.5 most popular play
Nev/NMex St - have NMex St. +10.5. Down to 7.5 now. Haven't seen anyone on Nevada yet. If it goes to 6.5 might try to middle 1/2 unit.
UConn/Utah St - have UConn +28.5 for 1/2 unit. Down to 26.5. Seeing most on Utah St lately. Might jump off and hope it lands on 28 lol.
NT/UTEP - no play. Looks like NT got hit today and NT now -2. Mostly seeing plays on UTEP though
Wyo/Ill - have Ill -9.5 and now up to 13.5. Seeing mostly U44 plays and some Wyo since line started moving. Might try to middle 1/2 unit at 14.5 if it gets there
Vandy/Haw - have Vandy -6.5 now up to 10. I haven't seen anyone on Haw yet at any price.

That's it. Have a lot bet for Week 1 but too much to review here. Most line movement has gone my way - main one that didn't was I have Utah/Flor O52.5 and now 50, 51. I have WKy -11 vs Haw week 1 and the capper thinks it could hit all the way 21 if Vandy routs Haw and WKy routs Austin Peay this weekend.

All bets 1u or 1/2 u. Nothing major turned up and no 2u+ bets. Probably good for week 0/1. Surprisingly not many what I call "offsets" where 2 cappers are on different sides. Haven't seen that much in Week 0/1 so far with guys I'm following.
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
thanks BAR you too. thinking of hitting Michigan +820 to win B10 based on your analysis. Circa still has that. Most others around 5 something. Sure seems like they and OSU will be 0 or 1 loss when they meet at end of year - would set up a nice hedge opp (of course I'm assuming the East winner would beat West winner). Schedules set up nicely. I've noticed with most of the big boys this year their OOC games are a joke - I mean OSU has ND week 1, GA has Oregon week 1 and Bama has Texas week 2 - but other than that I haven't noticed many huge OOC games. And all 3 of those are going to be +17 or more. Just saw ND hit 17 this morning.

thanks
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
thanks BAR you too. thinking of hitting Michigan +820 to win B10 based on your analysis. Circa still has that. Most others around 5 something. Sure seems like they and OSU will be 0 or 1 loss when they meet at end of year - would set up a nice hedge opp (of course I'm assuming the East winner would beat West winner). Schedules set up nicely. I've noticed with most of the big boys this year their OOC games are a joke - I mean OSU has ND week 1, GA has Oregon week 1 and Bama has Texas week 2 - but other than that I haven't noticed many huge OOC games. And all 3 of those are going to be +17 or more. Just saw ND hit 17 this morning.

thanks
Wow on the +17.

Yes, between some games being cancelled with higher profile opponents and the fact a very good ooc game doesn't do much for a playoff bid anymore UM at least learned for one year.

They have ou and Texas in next 5 years home and home but I doubt all, if any of those, get played.
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
Pretty good opening week - unfortunately one of my guys jumped on Wyoming +14 so I ended up losing a little on that one. But the capper who said to fade Wyoming and Hawaii seems to have a nailed it. I have Tulsa -1 vs. Wyoming next week and it was already up to 3, 3.5 before yesterday. Eager to see if it moves more. Also have WKy -11 vs. Hawaii next week and it was already as high as 14. Also eager to see if that line moves past 14 - WKy didn't look all that great either.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
Pretty good opening week - unfortunately one of my guys jumped on Wyoming +14 so I ended up losing a little on that one. But the capper who said to fade Wyoming and Hawaii seems to have a nailed it. I have Tulsa -1 vs. Wyoming next week and it was already up to 3, 3.5 before yesterday. Eager to see if it moves more. Also have WKy -11 vs. Hawaii next week and it was already as high as 14. Also eager to see if that line moves past 14 - WKy didn't look all that great either.

As awful Hawaii looked I can’t imagine ppl lining up to lay 2 tds with a wku team who struggled w Austin Peay. Good early get on the -11. Any number where you would consider middle or just be happy where you at and figure wku has a better chance of improvement than Hawaii? I’d like to get wku qb td prop again, I expect majority of wku tds will continue to come thru the air as every offensive td did week 0.,
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
As awful Hawaii looked I can’t imagine ppl lining up to lay 2 tds with a wku team who struggled w Austin Peay. Good early get on the -11. Any number where you would consider middle or just be happy where you at and figure wku has a better chance of improvement than Hawaii? I’d like to get wku qb td prop again, I expect majority of wku tds will continue to come thru the air as every offensive td did week 0.,
I just saw WK at -16 and Tulsa at -5. As you can see from the Wyoming +14, Illinois -9.5 I'm not much good at going for middles. This one happened because the 2 cappers I follow offset but it hasn't been much better when my own decision. Doesn't look like it will hit 21 but I might consider it then but otherwise I'll probably roll with WK -11. Though I have a gut feeling Hawaii is going to give them a game - I mean is Hawaii worse than Austin Peay?? LOL No idea.
 

2daBank

Dan Dan, The Prop Man
I just saw WK at -16 and Tulsa at -5. As you can see from the Wyoming +14, Illinois -9.5 I'm not much good at going for middles. This one happened because the 2 cappers I follow offset but it hasn't been much better when my own decision. Doesn't look like it will hit 21 but I might consider it then but otherwise I'll probably roll with WK -11. Though I have a gut feeling Hawaii is going to give them a game - I mean is Hawaii worse than Austin Peay?? LOL No idea.

I’m not real sure either, getting doors blown off by vandy puts you real close to the worst team in div 1! I think wku will show improvement tho and not sure that be the case w Hawaii? Not sure Hawaii capable of committing to the run game but it was painfully obvious that continues to be how teams are gonna gash wku!! This gonna look a lot different than last week cause wku isn’t gonna be running like vandy, they gonna drop back and throw 40-50 times. I’m not sure if Hawaii pass d any better than the run d? Vandy didn’t text it much.
 
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