April / May Bases

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I know opening day is tomorrow(March 30) but with only one day in March Ima start with "April Bases". Been working on my model, but it's take at least a couple weeks before it's much help, but it still offers quick reference. Last year I had my best year in the last 8, so I'm definitely gonna try to build on what was working. I love baseball as it's always been my favorite to bet on. I like football & fighting better for watching, but baseball brings the best "action" there is IMHO.

Huge opening day tomorrow with all 30 teams in action

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Team with Odds to win World Series and Pennant with short blurbs.

1-ASTROS +600 / +290 …They didn't make it through the spring unscathed with the losses of Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr., but they have reached six consecutive league championship series, and the defending champions just keep rolling no matter which stars they lose. George Springer’s gone? Now Kyle Tucker’s ready to make good on his potential. Gerrit Cole’s in New York? It’s OK, Framber Valdez is here. Carlos Correa’s departed? Well, Jeremy Peña can win a Gold Glove and World Series MVP as a rookie replacement. Verlander gone, who cares…Hunter Brown ready to fulfill promise.1680098113963.png
2-PADRES +750 / +400 …MONSTER Juan Soto season on the horizon. Let’s get ready to watch a lotta of the Padres this season. Especially after Tatis returns from his 20 remaining games of suspension, this lineup—which also includes new Padre Xander Bogaerts, MVP runner-up Manny Machado, a full season of the “explosive” Juan Soto, and the delectable DH platoon of Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz—will be an incredible team…both in production and entertainment value. Heck, even Blake Snell may be fun to watch, thanks to the pitch clock.
3-BRAVES +700 / +340 …There's enough talent here to make me look dumb for not having them at the top heading into the year. They might be there for most of the season. There are a few questions, like is Arcia really the answer at SS and LF/DH are unsettled, but with 6 of their core stars locked up for 4-5 years, this will become an old story year to year…again
4-METS +750 / +400 …The bullpen was the biggest question mark and the loss of Edwin Díaz was obviously major, but remember he was just pretty good in 2021 and horrible in 2019. It's a good illustration of how volatile relievers are. It's also the most acquirable position in front of the trade deadline. All this is to say, it's plausible to believe somehow the Mets end the season with a good bullpen.
5-YANKEES +650 / +325…The Carlos Rodón injury, especially given his history of arm issues, is a huge concern going in. It's a bigger deal than the Díaz injury to the Mets, hence the swap. Still loaded, as usual.
6-DODGERS +900 / +400 …The least talented Dodgers team in years…at least on paper, but it’s still the Dodgers and, well, look at the 2019 Nationals and 2021 Braves. Maybe this Dodgers team takes the title in a full season for the first time since ’88 but it would surprise me after losing Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, and others.
7-BLUE JAYS +1000 / +600…Not as bullish on them as last year, but there is plenty of talent if Berrios adds quality innings to their rotation, as they already have a solid 1-2 in Manoah/Gausman and Bassit is probably OK as well…but after that it falls off hard.
1680098137945.png8-RAYS +2000 / +1000…On one hand, the Tyler Glasnow injury is a bummer, but on the other, I'm not sure how many innings he was really going to work this year. Maybe this oblique injury helps the Rays consolidate what would've been a full season of work into, say, 2/3 of the year. If they can muster a little more offense, say return to 2021 form of #2 RPG at 5.3 and best record in AL. There’s possibilities with Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe starting the season healthy after missing over half of last season and hampered with nagging recovery the rest of the way. The pitching however unknown, won’t be a problem top to bottom it’s well above average.
9-PHILLIES +1800 / +900 …Awful news on Rhys Hoskins, that sucks. Perhaps it can be balanced out a little bit with a much faster return than expected from Bryce Harper? They seem to be, heading into spring, a better overall team this year than last anyway.
10-M’S +1800 / +1000…One of the most exciting questions in baseball this year: What will Julio Rodríguez do for his encore?

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11-CARDS +1800 / +900 … If everything breaks right -- I'm talking something in the range of the 90th percentile outcome for everyone, including Jordan Walker -- this could be one of the scariest offenses in baseball.
12-BREWERS +5000 / +2500 …Three Brewers pitchers have won a Cy Young Award before. None have done it twice. Corbin Burnes may be the first.
13-GUARDIANS +2500 / +1100…CLE feasted on the AL Central in last season and now the schedule isn't nearly as unbalanced as before. Will that matter?
14-ANGELS +4000 / +200…Shohei Ohtani striking out Mike Trout to end the World Baseball Classic was such great theater and those triple digit cutters that were moving like sliders were really not fair. Anthony Rendon is an X-factor and, for those who care about such matters, he's put-up big numbers in the spring. As for the bump, I'll admit I'm falling for the whole "Angel’s breakout" again. Once a sucker, always a sucker.
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15-TWINS +4000 / +1500…Since spring is the time for optimism, there's a route here where the Twins have a really good rotation, 1-5, this season
16-RED SOX +5000 / +2500…On the flip side to the Guardians comment, the Red Sox are a textbook example of a team that should, in theory at least, be helped greatly by the schedule change. They were a pitiful 26-50 against the AL East last year while playing playoff-caliber baseball against every other division. Of course, it's a different team after plenty of turnover, including the departure of Xander Bogaerts. That's why I said "in theory."
17- RANGERS +5000 / +2500…They have already dealt with injury concerns in the oft-injured portion (read: Most of) the rotation. That means it's out of the way and the regular season will go smoothly! Sure.
18- GIANTS +6000 / +2600 …I don't know, man. Scrolling up and down the lineup, depth chart, rotation, bullpen, etc., this certainly isn't a bad team. It's just generally uninspiring.
19- WHITE SOX +3000 / +1500…Broken record time (I love how this was in danger of never being a thing again but now it's way more of a thing than, say, a skipping CD ... sorry, back to the comment): If we're talking about just upside here, as this is the time for optimism, 1680098343242.pnga Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito rotation top three has excellent upside while Luis Robert has MVP upside and is still only 25.
20- O’S +10000 / +4000…The lack of more offseason aggression is troubling considering next season's barren free agency class. Are they just going prospect-only? It's hard to find emerging teams win a World Series without supplementing their young talent with established stars. I do believe this wave of young talent should be supplemented and this past offseason represented the best opportunity.
 
21- MARLINS +10000 / +5000 …There's a path to contention. It's not likely, but there's a path. Tough division, but as mentioned above: The schedule is much more balanced now. Odd stat: FanGraphs projects them 5th-lowest strikeout rate this season, after ranked 26th in 2022. Not sure that makes them better overall, since they have very little power—projected for the fewest homers of any team—and their pitching declined with the trade of Pablo López.
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22- CUBS +8000 / +4000 …I'll avoid optimism here, but I do expect they'll be better, although without playoff possibilities. Mediocrity seems reachable at this point.
23- DBACKS +10000 / +5000 …A popular NL ROY pick is Jordan Walker. And while I doubt people sleep on speedster Corbin Carroll, I'll climb out on a limb…if there's a breakout team among the bottom-feeders, I'll take the Snakes to surprise.
24-ROYALS +15000 / +7500…The batting order actually has some potential, specifically the top half or so.
25-TIGERS +25000 / +10000…Optimistic spin: It's hard to see things going much worse than in 2022.
26-REDS +20000 / +10000…Loving Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo and don't forget Graham Ashcraft!
1680098566294.png27-PIRATES +20000 / +10000… Oneil Cruz will be a fixture on the All-Fun Team for a decade-plus.
28-ROCKIES +20000 / +10000… Kris Bryant will have a huge season. Honestly.
29-NATS +25000 / +15000…It'll be a fun year for those who peer into the future to get a better grasp on how fruitful the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer (specifically Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz) and Juan Soto (CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore) trades will be. All four will have significant roles this season.
30- A’S +25000 / +15000…Sorry, Oakland. I've got nothing.
 
Totally agree, most ppl act like I’m crazy when I try to tell them if they not betting baseball they missing out. Im always like “you ain’t gotta watch it!”. I actually like a sport I make bets and am not constantly watching and screaming at tv! Lol. Here’s to another great season!
 
Starters history on opening day
Fried 0-2
8 guys make first opening day start
most starts 6 (greinke & scherz)

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It's Opening Day and I'm so happy! :breakdance:

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--- MLB ---
2022 [875-924 +75.39u]
2023: 0-0 +0.0u
LAST: - -

3/30...
  • 4/1.81 BRAVES -221
  • 2/1.49 Brewers -134
  • 3/3.00 Marlins u6½ +100
  • 2/3.10 Diamondbacks +155
  • 2/3.84 Athletics +192
  • 3/2.01 TWINS -149
  • 4/2.82 ASTROS -142
  • 3/2.36 RANGERS -127
  • 3/2.91 RANGERS u6½-103
  • 3/2.78 CARDINALS u7½ -108
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I love playing dogs, but sometimes big early season chalk works well.
Looking at big chalk in March-April over last 7 years
I took over 230 and left out ridiculous numbers >=300
With 62 game sample both ML & RL have shown ~10% ROI and won 11 of L12 on ML & 10 of 12 RL
The under has cashed 60% at almost 15% ROI

:haveanidea:


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Lots of low totals today, and for a reason...
In the first 20 games of the year when total is less than 8, the under has cashed 58.7% last 7 years for 12.3% ROI :megaphone:

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--- MLB ---
2023: 5-7 -7.76u
LAST: 5-7 -7.76u

THRURSDAY
✅4/1.81 BRAVES -221
❌2/1.49 Brewers -134
❌3/3.00 Marlins u6½ +100
❌2/3.10 Diamondbacks +155
✅2/3.84 Athletics +192
✅3/2.01 TWINS -149
❌4/2.82 ASTROS -142
✅3/2.36 RANGERS -127
❌3/2.91 RANGERS u6½-103
❌3/2.78 CARDINALS u7½ -108
❌3/3.33 Marlins +111
✅2/1.72 Mariners -116

FRIDAY
  • 2/2.00 MARLINS u7½ +100
  • 2/3.42 DBACKS +171
  • 2/2.04 ASTROS u7½ +102
  • 3/1.88 MARINERS -160
  • 2/2.00 MARINERS u7½ +100
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--- MLB ---
2023: 7-10 -9.34u
LAST: 2-3 -1.58u

FRIDAY
✅2/2.00 MARLINS u7½ +100
✅2/3.42 DBACKS +171
❌2/2.04 ASTROS u7½ +102
❌3/1.88 MARINERS -160
❌2/2.00 MARINERS u7½ +100

SATURDAY

  • 1/1.12 Cubs +112
  • 2/0.83 BRAVES -242
  • 1/1.14 Marlins +114
  • 3/4.05 Pirates +135
  • 2/1.82 Padres -1½ -110
  • 2.50/1 Dodgers -250
  • 2/1.67 Dodgers -1½ -120
  • 1/1.17 White Sox +117
  • 2/3.14 Athletics +157
  • 1.13/1 Athletics +1½ -113
  • 1/1.65 Tigers +165
  • 1/1.20 Red Sox -1½ +120
  • 2/2.50 Guardians +125
  • 1/1.40 Phillies -1½ +140
  • 1/1.34 Giants +134
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--- MLB ---
2023: 13-19 -12.31u
LAST: 6-9 -2.97u
Rough start to the season with 3 straight losing days, but once I get warmed up 12 units is nothing :pointandlaugh:
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SATURDAY
❌1/1.12 Cubs +112
✅2/0.83 BRAVES -242
❌1/1.14 Marlins +114
❌3/4.05 Pirates +135
✅2/1.82 Padres -1½ -110
✅2.50/1 Dodgers -250
✅2/1.67 Dodgers -1½ -120
❌1/1.17 White Sox +117
❌2/3.14 Athletics +157
❌1.13/1 Athletics +1½ -113
❌1/1.65 Tigers +165
❌1/1.20 Red Sox -1½ +120
✅2/2.50 Guardians +125
❌1/1.40 Phillies -1½ +140
✅1/1.34 Giants +134

SUNDAY

  • 2/1.14 Braves -175
  • 2/1.75 METS -114
  • 2/2.50 Pirates +125
  • 1/1.60 Cubs -1½ +160
  • 2/1.12 DODGERS -179
  • 2/2.10 Dodgers u8½ +105
  • 2/3.92 Rockies +1.96
  • 1/2.17 TIGERS +217
  • 2/2.54 Orioles +127
  • 2/2.92 White Sox +146
  • 2/1.60 Athletics +1½ -125
  • 2/1.83 CARDINALS -109
  • 2/1.60 RANGERS -160
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--- MLB ---
2023: 18-27 -16.11u
LAST: 5-8 -3.8u

Yet to find a groove as several teams have proven surprising, at least to me. I do expect my plays to get sharper as the season goes, but for now I do continue treading lightly.

Snakes fought off Doyers to split series...
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But Thor looked great
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SUNDAY
❌2/1.14 Braves -175
✅2/1.75 METS -114
❌2/2.50 Pirates +125
❌1/1.60 Cubs -1½ +160
❌2/1.12 DODGERS -179
✅2/2.10 Dodgers u8½ +105
❌2/3.92 Rockies +196
❌1/2.17 TIGERS +217
❌2/2.54 Orioles +127
✅2/2.92 White Sox +146
❌2/1.60 Athletics +1½ -125
✅2/1.83 CARDINALS -109
✅2/1.60 RANGERS -125

MONDAY
  • 2/1.74 Brewers -115
  • 2/2.16 Reds +108
  • 2/2.60 Braves -1½ +130
  • 2/2.54 DIAMONDBACKS +127
  • 2/1.82 Dodgers u8½ -110
  • 2/2.40 Orioles +120
  • 2/3.92 TIGERS +196
  • 3/2.40 WHITE SOX -125
  • 2/1.19 Yankees -168
  • 2/1.82 Yankees u8 -110
  • 2/2.60 Yankees -1½ +130
  • 3/1.82 RAYS -165
  • 2/2.00 RAYS -1½ +100
  • 3/4.20 Pirates +140
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I like the pirates and cws, not sure bout milw as favs vs Mets. Brewers lineup is still a problem imo, adding Contreras helped (ironically their best offensive game of weekend he sat, baseball for ya, lol) but I just don’t trust them to do like they did yesterday and put hits together or get runs across without hitting hrs. They struck out a lot against cubs while facing only 1 pitcher w what I’d consider elite strike out stuff. I def like Peralta more than Carrasco but think Mets lineup a much tougher assignment. Gl today
 
--- MLB ---
2023: 28-31 -0.48u
LAST: 10-4 +15.63.8u

After 5 straight losing days to start season, all it takes is one good day and I'm back to even...now we roll!

MONDAY
✅2/1.74 Brewers -115
✅2/2.16 Reds +108
✅2/2.60 Braves -1½ +130
❌2/2.54 DIAMONDBACKS +127
❌2/1.82 Dodgers u8½ -110
✅2/2.40 Orioles +120
✅2/3.92 TIGERS +196
❌3/2.40 WHITE SOX -125
✅2/1.19 Yankees -168
❌2/1.82 Yankees u8 -110
✅2/2.60 Yankees -1½ +130
✅3/1.82 RAYS -165
✅2/2.00 RAYS -1½ +100
✅3/4.20 Pirates +140

TUESDAY
  • 2/2.10 Padres u7 +105
  • 2.48/2 CUBS -124
  • 2/2.90 Brewers +145
  • 2/2.42 BRAVES +121
  • 2.30/2 Dodgers -1½ -115
  • 3/1.86 JAYS -161
  • 2.38/2 JAYS o9½ -119
  • 3/2.31 Astros -1½ -130
  • 3/1.59 GUARDIANS -189
  • 2/2.10 Guardians o7 +105
  • 2.40/2 Angels o7 -120
  • 2/2.60 Twins +130
  • 2/2.80 Phillies +140
  • 2.20/2 Phillies o8½ -110
  • 2.30/2 Rays o8½ -115
  • 2.66/2 RED SOX -133

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--- MLB ---
2023: 28-31 +0.26u
LAST: 8-7-1 +0.74u

TUESDAY
❌2/2.10 Padres u7 +105
✅2.48/2 CUBS -124
✅2/2.90 Brewers +145
✅2/2.42 BRAVES +121
✅2.30/2 Dodgers -1½ -115
✅3/1.86 JAYS -161
❌2.38/2 JAYS o9½ -119
❌3/2.31 Astros -1½ -130
❌3/1.59 GUARDIANS -189
⛅2/2.10 Guardians o7 +105
✅2.40/2 Angels o7 -120
❌2/2.60 Twins +130
✅2/2.80 Phillies +140
❌2.20/2 Phillies o8½ -110
✅2.30/2 Rays o8½ -115
❌2.66/2 RED SOX -133
3058706

WEDNESDAY
  • 2.10/2 Reds u8½ -105
  • 2/2.36 Braves +118
  • 2/2.40 Mets +120
  • 2.10/2 Brewers u7½ -105
  • 1.20/2 O'S +166
  • 2.10/2 Rangers u7½ -105
  • 2.20/2 Astros u7½ -110
  • 3/3.36 A'S +112
  • 2/1.33 A'S +1½ -150
  • 2/2.82 M'S +141
  • 2/2.20 M'S u7 +110
  • 1.22/2 Royals +164
  • 2.04/2 Royals u8½ -102
  • 1.36/2 Phillies +147
  • 2.30/2 Yankees u7 -115
  • 2.80/2 Rays -1½ -140
  • 2.10/2 Marlins u7 +105
  • 2.20/2 CHISOX u7½-110
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Last edited:
--- MLB ---
2023: 33-41 -8.66u
LAST: 5-10-3 -8.92u

WEDNESDAY
⛅2.10/2 Reds u8½ -105
✅2/2.36 Braves +118
❌2/2.40 Mets +120
❌2.10/2 Brewers u7½ -105
❌1.20/2 Orioles +166
✅2.10/2 Rangers u7½ -105
❌2.20/2 Astros u7½ -110
❌3/3.36 ATHLETICS +112
❌2/1.33 Athletics +1½ -150
❌2/2.82 Mariners +141
⛅2/2.20 Mariners u7 +110
❌1.22/2 Royals +164
✅2.04/2 Royals u8½ -102
❌1.36/2 Phillies +147
✅2.30/2 Yankees u7 -115
✅2.80/2 Rays -1½ -140
⛅2.10/2 Marlins u7 +105
❌2.20/2 WHITE SOX u7½-110

THURSDAY
  • 2/1.25 BRAVES -160
  • 1/1.35 BRAVES -1½ +135
  • 2/3.80 ROYALS +190
  • 2.52/3 GIANTS +119
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:yes:
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--- MLB ---
2023: 33-41 -8.66u
LAST: 5-10-3 -8.92u

WEDNESDAY
⛅2.10/2 Reds u8½ -105
✅2/2.36 Braves +118
❌2/2.40 Mets +120
❌2.10/2 Brewers u7½ -105
❌1.20/2 Orioles +166
✅2.10/2 Rangers u7½ -105
❌2.20/2 Astros u7½ -110
❌3/3.36 ATHLETICS +112
❌2/1.33 Athletics +1½ -150
❌2/2.82 Mariners +141
⛅2/2.20 Mariners u7 +110
❌1.22/2 Royals +164
✅2.04/2 Royals u8½ -102
❌1.36/2 Phillies +147
✅2.30/2 Yankees u7 -115
✅2.80/2 Rays -1½ -140
⛅2.10/2 Marlins u7 +105
❌2.20/2 WHITE SOX u7½-110

THURSDAY
  • 2/1.25 BRAVES -160
  • 1/1.35 BRAVES -1½ +135
  • 2/3.80 ROYALS +190
  • 2.52/3 GIANTS +119
View attachment 72918View attachment 72919

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Lots of eye candy in your thread.

Where are you getting the baseball data from? Thanks in advance.
 
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--- MLB ---
2023 [35-43 -7.41u]
LAST [2-2 +1.25u]

THURSDAY
✅2/1.25 BRAVES -160
❌1/1.35 BRAVES -1½ +135
❌2/3.80 ROYALS +190
✅2.52/3 GIANTS +119

FRIDAY

  • 2/2.20 PADRES +110
  • 2/2.60 Brewers -1½ +130
  • 3/3.24 NATIONALS +108
  • 2.70/2 Dodgers -1½ -135
  • 3.48/3 RAYS -1½ -116
  • 3/3.75 PIRATES +125
  • 2/3.40 Royals +170
  • 2.20/2 Giants u8 -110
  • 2/2.28 ASTROS +114
  • 1.25/2 Marlins +160
  • 1.14/2 Reds +175
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Lots of eye candy in your thread.

Where are you getting the baseball data from? Thanks in advance.
I scrape several sites, but mostly the historic situational data is from killersports.com

For instance, it I wanted to see how teams do in March/April at home when on a 6 game win streak over say the last 10 years, I could use this link
 
I scrape several sites, but mostly the historic situational data is from killersports.com

For instance, it I wanted to see how teams do in March/April at home when on a 6 game win streak over say the last 10 years, I could use this link
Will check them out later today. Thanks again.
 
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--- MLB ---
2023 [42-47 +5.69u]
LAST [7-4 +13.1u]


FRIDAY
✅2/2.20 PADRES +110
✅2/2.60 Brewers -1½ +130
✅3/3.24 NATIONALS +108
❌2.70/2 Dodgers -1½ -135
✅3.48/3 RAYS -1½ -116
✅3/3.75 PIRATES +125
✅2/3.40 Royals +170
✅2.20/2 Giants u8 -110
❌2/2.28 ASTROS +114
❌1.25/2 Marlins +160
❌1.14/2 Reds +175

SATURDAY

  • 2/2.50 REDS +125
  • 2/1.18 REDS +1½ -169
  • 2/3.12 MARLINS +156
  • 4/2.96 CARDS -135
  • 2.34/2 CARDS o8½ -117
  • 2/2.50 BRAVES -1½ +125
  • 2/2.04 BRAVES u8½ +102
  • 2/1.69 Dbacks +1½ -118
  • 2/2.74 Rockies -1½ +137
  • 2/2.80 Tigers +140
  • 2.80/2 RAYS -1½ -140
  • 2.26/2 ANGELS -113
  • 3/3.66 Royals +122
  • 1.68/1 Royals +1½ -168
  • 2.48/2 WHITE SOX -124

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--- MLB ---
2023 [51-53 +11.88u]
LAST [9-6 +6.19u]
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10 days into the season and I feel like I'm starting to get a better feel for the teams and rules. Finally, up decently on the year if only +4.48% ROI. The last 3 days have basically got it done, going 18-12 for +20.54u. I've been playing mostly dogs, but I have hit a few too many big favorites which I have been eliminating over past few days. All in all, I'm ready to roll!

Let's F'kn Go!

:danceparty:


SATURDAY
❌2/2.50 REDS +125
✅2/1.18 REDS +1½ -169
❌2/3.12 MARLINS +156
✅4/2.96 CARDS -135
❌2.34/2 CARDS o8½ -117
❌2/2.50 BRAVES -1½ +125
✅2/2.04 BRAVES u8½ +102
✅2/1.69 Dbacks +1½ -118
❌2/2.74 Rockies -1½ +137
❌2/2.80 Tigers +140
✅2.80/2 RAYS -1½ -140
✅2.26/2 ANGELS -113
✅3/3.66 Royals +122
✅1.68/1 Royals +1½ -168
✅2.48/2 WHITE SOX -124

SUNDAY1681047531702.png
  • 2.60/2 Reds +1½ -130
  • 2/1.29 Marlins +1½ -155
  • 3/4.14 Marlins +138
  • 2/2.78 Cardinals +139
  • 2/2.32 DBACKS +116
  • 2/2.12 Tigers +106
  • 2/0.71 RAYS -283
  • 3/2.07 RAYS -1½ -145
  • 2.90/2 Yankees -145
  • 2/2.30 Yankees -1½ +115
  • 2/2.30 Guardians +115
  • 2.14/2 TWINS u8 -107
  • 2/2.04 Pirates +102
  • 2.20/2 Rangers o8 -110
  • 2/2.92 Royals +146
4F6CjtD.png

mumXVnB.png


gAQq7P2.jpg
 
oakland_a_s_logo_comparison.gif


--- MLB ---
2023 [63-56 +31.05u]
LAST [12-3 +19.17u]

SUNDAY
✅2.60/2 Reds +1½ -130
✅2/1.29 Marlins +1½ -155
✅3/4.14 Marlins +138
❌2/2.78 Cardinals +139
✅2/2.32 DBACKS +116
❌2/2.12 Tigers +106
✅2/0.71 RAYS -283
✅3/2.07 RAYS -1½ -145
✅2.90/2 Yankees -145
✅2/2.30 Yankees -1½ +115
✅2/2.30 Guardians +115
✅2.14/2 TWINS u8 -107
✅2/2.04 Pirates +102
✅2.20/2 Rangers o8 -110
❌2/2.92 Royals +146

MONDAY
  • 3/3.12 Phillies +104
  • 3/2.17 CARDINALS -138
  • 3/3.90 Brewers +130
  • 3/2.97 TWINS -101
  • 3/4.02 Yankees +134
  • 3.75/6 Athletics +160
  • 3/2.40 Athletics +1½ -125
  • 3/4.17 RED SOX +139
  • 2.53/4 Royals +158
  • 2.60/2 Royals +1½ -130
  • 1.36/3 Nationals +220

Rsg9Bx6.png

rvGAfho.png


NuAhf2j.png
 
Great Sunday. Confused by some of your picks today as they seem to go directly against some of the trends and stats you've provided. O's, White Sox.
 
Great Sunday. Confused by some of your picks today as they seem to go directly against some of the trends and stats you've provided. O's, White Sox.
I post mostly the same sheets every day and quickly highlight the spots that stick out but that's only one of three tools I use and it's either 3rd or maybe tied for 2nd most important. The most important to me is my model...because it mostly spots undervalued dogs which is where the money's at IMO. Next is what I call movers or hot/cold streaky metrics, ie teams moving up or down the ranks and last would-be trends which is mostly the easiest to post without going into explanation. All are important but sometimes they can cancel each other out. There's a 4th item that mostly gets down to amount, you have to resist chasing, be willing to reduce amounts wagered on down cycle and pounce quickly when you feel the hot streak coming.
 
fba0cc6183e48e4adb30ffc047fd7bd1.gif


--- MLB ---
2023 [66-66 +10.29u]
LAST [3-10 -20.76u]
:beat:

MONDAY
✅3/3.12 Phillies +104
❌3/2.17 CARDINALS -138
❌3/3.90 Brewers +130
❌3/2.97 TWINS -101
❌3/4.02 Yankees +134
❌3.75/6 Athletics +160
❌3/2.40 Athletics +1½ -125
❌3/4.17 RED SOX +139
❌2.53/4 Royals +158
❌2.60/2 Royals +1½ -130
✅1.36/3 Nationals +220
✅3.06/3 Cubs u8½ +102
❌3/2.83 Pirates u8 -106

TUESDAY
  • 4/5.16 Padres +129
  • 3.39/3 Braves -1½ -113
  • 4/2.56 Cardinals -156
  • 5/3.94 BREWERS -127
  • 3/2.01 Dodgers -149
  • 2.58/4 Guardians +155
  • 3.30/3 Rays u7½ -110
  • 3/2.22 Jays -1½ -135
  • 3/4.11 White Sox +137
  • 3/2.40 Rangers -1½ -125
  • 4/2.41 Astros -166
  • 3/2.91 Cubs -103
  • 3/2.22 Angels -1½ -135
  • 3.48/3 ANGELS u8½ -116
1ztdqzi92apa1.gif

1681213364062.png 1681213472480.png
 
Afternoon bases on Wednesday!

giphy.gif


--- MLB ---
2023 [74-72 +15.43u] +4.02% ROI
LAST [8-6 +5.14u]

TUESDAY
✅4/5.16 Padres +129
❌3.39/3 Braves -1½ -113
✅4/2.56 Cardinals -156
✅5/3.94 BREWERS -127
❌3/2.01 Dodgers -149
❌2.58/4 Guardians +155
❌3.30/3 Rays u7½ -110
✅3/2.22 Jays -1½ -135
❌3/4.11 White Sox +137
✅3/2.40 Rangers -1½ -125
❌4/2.41 Astros -166
✅3/2.91 Cubs -103
✅3/2.22 Angels -1½ -135
✅3.48/3 ANGELS u8½ -116

WEDNESDAY
  • 2/2.04 PADRES +102
  • 5/3.13 Cards -160
  • 2.30/2 Cards -1½ -115
  • 3/5.10 Marlins +170
  • 3.30/3 Braves u8 -110
  • 4/2.52 Dodgers -159
  • 2/2.10 Dodgers -1½ +105
  • 3.30/3 Yankees o9½ -110
  • 4/2.26 Orioles -177
  • 4/4.64 RED SOX +116
  • 2/2.40 Tigers +1½ +120
  • 5/3.13 ASTROS -160
  • 2.10/2 Astros -1½ -105
  • 3/4.44 NATS +148
randoms...
FBXAmHUVIAAjOxy.jpg
  • STREAKS: 11 TB, -5 DET, -6 OAK
  • COBB STARTS 6-16 -48.8% ROI WHEN TOTAL UNDER 8 SINCE 2020
  • KERSHAW STARTS GO OVER 63% (17-10) WHEN TOTAL UNDER 8 SINCE 2020
STARTER @SITE LAST 24 MONTHS

Team
Starter
Site
W
L
Win %
Margin
$
ROI
RL$
RL_ROI
Opp
Brewers
Janson Junk​
away​
1​
0​
1.0​
4.0​
110​
110.0​
100​
57.1​
Diamondbacks​
Mariners
Logan Gilbert​
away​
16​
7​
0.7​
0.74​
1143​
45.1​
525​
15.7​
Cubs​
Nationals
MacKenzie Gore​
away​
5​
2​
0.71​
2.29​
336​
39.0​
300​
31.9​
Angels​
Mets
Tylor Megill​
home​
10​
3​
0.77​
0.92​
675​
38.1​
440​
35.3​
Padres​
Angels
Griffin Canning​
home​
4​
2​
0.67​
1.17​
200​
25.2​
-240​
-35.3​
Nationals​
Cardinals
Jack Flaherty​
away​
5​
3​
0.63​
1.5​
215​
23.3​
165​
15.7​
Rockies​
Royals
Brad Keller​
away​
12​
12​
0.5​
-0.79​
510​
21.0​
-105​
-3.2​
Rangers​
Astros
Jose Urquidy​
away​
12​
8​
0.6​
1.65​
360​
14.5​
460​
18.4​
Pirates​
Braves
Spencer Strider​
home​
6​
3​
0.67​
2.89​
73​
4.4​
-150​
-14.9​
Reds​
Orioles
Dean Kremer​
home​
7​
7​
0.5​
-1.43​
35​
2.3​
-30​
-1.7​
Athletics​
Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi​
home​
13​
9​
0.59​
0.77​
45​
1.3​
130​
5.1​
Royals​
Phillies
Zack Wheeler​
home​
15​
12​
0.56​
0.74​
-199​
-4.6​
150​
5.3​
Marlins​
Twins
Sonny Gray​
home​
13​
11​
0.54​
-0.92​
-202​
-5.2​
-1300​
-50.5​
White Sox​
Tigers
Eduardo Rodriguez​
away​
10​
11​
0.48​
-0.29​
-155​
-6.4​
-55​
-1.9​
Blue Jays​
Marlins
Edward Cabrera​
away​
3​
4​
0.43​
0.71​
-60​
-7.9​
60​
6.2​
Phillies​
Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw​
away​
10​
7​
0.59​
1.94​
-300​
-9.4​
205​
9.9​
Giants​
Pirates
Rich Hill​
home​
11​
10​
0.52​
0.05​
-278​
-9.4​
-520​
-20.7​
Astros​
Rockies
Jose Urena​
home​
6​
9​
0.4​
-3.33​
-184​
-11.6​
75​
4.3​
Cardinals​
White Sox
Lucas Giolito​
away​
12​
15​
0.44​
-0.04​
-664​
-18.6​
-1125​
-34.4​
Twins​
Giants
Alex Cobb​
home​
9​
10​
0.47​
1.0​
-609​
-20.4​
-155​
-7.6​
Dodgers​
Blue Jays
Kevin Gausman​
home​
13​
11​
0.54​
-0.46​
-1120​
-22.7​
-1240​
-44.8​
Tigers​
Red Sox
Chris Sale​
away​
1​
2​
0.33​
-3.0​
-115​
-32.8​
-120​
-35.8​
Rays​
Cubs
Marcus Stroman​
home​
8​
14​
0.36​
-1.36​
-1042​
-34.7​
-600​
-21.2​
Mariners​
Padres
Blake Snell​
away​
7​
15​
0.32​
-0.14​
-1162​
-38.9​
-760​
-25.1​
Mets​
Reds
Hunter Greene​
away​
2​
10​
0.17​
-2.58​
-738​
-61.5​
-655​
-39.1​
Braves​
Athletics
Ken Waldichuk​
away​
0​
1​
0.0​
-4.0​
-100​
-100.0​
-100​
-100.0​
Orioles​
Yankees
Clarke Schmidt​
away​
0​
2​
0.0​
-2.0​
-320​
-100.0​
-225​
-100.0​
Guardians​
Rays
Taj Bradley​
home​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
Red Sox​
Diamondbacks
Drey Jameson​
home​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
Brewers​
Guardians
Peyton Battenfield​
home​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
Yankees​

1681307683328.png
uKPBxQN.png
 
toronto_blue_jays_2003.png

--- MLB ---
2023 [82-78 +18.21u]
LAST [8-6 +2.78u]

WEDNESDAY
✅2/2.04 PADRES +102
✅5/3.13 Cards -160
✅2.30/2 Cards -1½ -115
✅3/5.10 Marlins +170
❌3.30/3 Braves u8 -110
✅4/2.52 Dodgers -159
✅2/2.10 Dodgers -1½ +105
❌3.30/3 Yankees o9½ -110
❌4/2.26 Orioles -177
❌4/4.64 RED SOX +116
✅2/2.40 Tigers +1½ +120
✅5/3.13 ASTROS -160
✅2.10/2 Astros -1½ -105
❌3/4.44 NATS +148

THURSDAY
  • 4/4.32 Phillies +108
  • 3/6.81 Pirates +227
  • 2.17/1 RAYS -217
  • 4/3.42 Jays -1½ -117

1681389105574.png

qcUm6CY.png

vFw6tcy.png

49 RARELY LOOKS SO GOOD :)
1681388612412.png1681388863794.png
 
Even after a disastrous Monday, numbers still trending decent.

1681390333751.png

MarchWLRiskProfitROI
MONEYLINE6530.001.665.53%
RUNLINE000.000.000.00%
TOTALS1515.00-11.00-73.33%
71045.00-9.34-20.76%
APRILWLRiskProfitROI
MONEYLINE4749234.2911.394.86%
RUNLINE2817111.4624.3321.83%
TOTALS161795.32-4.19-4.40%
9183441.0731.537.15%

Totals once again proved my nemesis, at least it takes longer to figure them out. New rules skewing my historic variables. Surprisingly excellent numbers on the RL as I've played quite a few at +1½
 
I don’t trust pirates to score runs on Montgomery but I agree far as that price being kinda silly.
 
s-l500.png

--- MLB ---
2023 [84-80 +18.02u]
LAST [2-2 -0.19u]

THURSDAY
❌4/4.32 Phillies +108
✅3/6.81 Pirates +227
✅2.17/1 RAYS -217
❌4/3.42 Jays -1½ -117

FRIDAY
  • 6/4.26 PHILLIES -141
  • 5/3.33 Marlins -150
  • 4/5.00 Cardinals -1½ +125
  • 3/4.50 Cubs +150
  • 4/2.29 Yankees -175
  • 4/4.00 Yankees u8½ +100
  • 4/3.42 RAYS -117
  • 5/4.72 ORIOLES -106
  • 4/4.24 Red Sox +106
  • 4/2.61 Red Sox +1½ -153
  • 4/4.00 Red Sox o9½ +100
  • 4/5.40 Astros -1½ +135
  • 4/2.86 Giants -140
  • 4/2.65 Guardians -151
  • 4/3.01 BRAVES -133
  • 3/5.76 ATHLETICS +192
May be a little chalky today, but still I like it. :rosesmile:

zBC2b6S.png

Jef1MEc.png

162516_2.jpg
 
1681558978958.png

--- MLB ---
2023 [94-86 +33.34u]
LAST [10-6 +15.32u]

FRIDAY
✅6/4.26 PHILLIES -141
✅5/3.33 Marlins -150
✅4/5.00 Cardinals -1½ +125
✅3/4.50 Cubs +150
❌4/2.29 Yankees -175
✅4/4.00 Yankees u8½ +100
❌4/3.42 RAYS -117
✅5/4.72 ORIOLES -106
✅4/4.24 Red Sox +106
✅4/2.61 Red Sox +1½ -153
❌4/4.00 Red Sox o9½ +100
❌4/5.40 Astros -1½ +135
❌4/2.86 Giants -140
✅4/2.65 Guardians -151
✅4/3.01 BRAVES -133
❌3/5.76 ATHLETICS +192

SATURDAY
  • 6/3.26 Cardinals -184
  • 4/3.51 PADRES u8 -114
  • 4/3.81 REDS -105
  • 4/3.25 Marlins -123
  • 4/4.08 Marlins u8½ +102
  • 4/3.81 Yankees u8½ -105
  • 4/3.64 Orioles -110
  • 4/3.57 Blue Jays -112
  • 4/3.54 Astros u8 -113
  • 4/2.55 GUARDIANS -157
  • 2.20/2 GUARDIANS -1½ -110
  • 4/4.00 ATHLETICS +1½ +100
  • 4/5.04 Royals +126
  • 3/1.29 MARINERS -233
  • 3/2.65 MARINERS -1½ -113
fNF9vHo.png

1681559696165.png
124863.jpg
 
adding

  • 5/5.85 Giants -1½ +117
  • 3/2.16 Giants -139
Love the gints today, although my bets got crossed as I meant 5u on ML and 3 on RL, but since it was already clicked in...I'm just letting in ride :assshake:

Nice number: Road chalk of 140 or more over last 7 years in APR-MAY has cashed over 78% for a solid 8.7% ROI (Sample size 588)

17-6 last 23 ..pictured

1681578063586.png
 
giphy.gif

--- MLB ---
2023 [104-93 +34.35u]
LAST [10-7 +1.01u]

SATURDAY
❌6/3.26 Cardinals -184
❌4/3.51 PADRES u8 -114
✅4/3.81 REDS -105
✅4/3.25 Marlins -123
✅4/4.08 Marlins u8½ +102
✅4/3.81 Yankees u8½ -105
❌4/3.64 Orioles -110
✅4/3.57 Blue Jays -112
❌4/3.54 Astros u8 -113
✅4/2.55 GUARDIANS -157
✅2.20/2 GUARDIANS -1½ -110
✅4/4.00 ATHLETICS +1½ +100
❌4/5.04 Royals +126
✅3/1.29 MARINERS -233
✅3/2.65 MARINERS -1½ -113
❌5/5.85 Giants -1½ +117
❌3/2.16 Giants -139

SUNDAY
  • 5/4.35 Marlins u7 -115
  • 5/5.75 Diamondbacks +115
  • 6/3.35 PHILLIES -179
  • 4.56/2 DODGERS -228
  • 4.40/4 Dodgers -1½ -110
  • 6/3.70 Padres -162
  • 4.40/4 Padres u8 -110
  • 4/4.00 Angels +100
  • 5/3.16 TWINS +1½ -158
  • 4/4.00 Yankees u7 +100
  • 5/2.68 ASTROS -186
  • 5/5.00 ASTROS u7½ +100
  • 6/4.11 GIANTS -146
  • 4.60/4 Tigers u8 -115
  • 3/1.33 GUARDIANS -226
  • 4/2.96 GUARDIANS -1½ -135
  • 5/3.21 BRAVES -156
  • 4/2.67 METS -150
  • 4.40/4 Athletics u9 -110
  • 2.25/6 ROCKIES +267
Uuuugggeeee day incoming :cheerclap:

143798.jpg
 
Sunday chalk of 200 or more before the break last 7 year. Over 10% ROI both SU & RL :haveanidea:
Not to mention 19-5 in last 24(pictured)

1681653221133.png
 
il_fullxfull.3812926801_5u7o.jpg

--- MLB ---
2023 [112-103 +22.47u]
LAST [8-10-2 -11.88u]
Was looking good yesterday until missing 4 of last 5 :doh:

SUNDAY
✅5/4.35 Marlins u7 -115
✅5/5.75 Diamondbacks +115
✅6/3.35 PHILLIES -179
❌4.56/2 DODGERS -228
❌4.40/4 Dodgers -1½ -110
❌6/3.70 Padres -162
✅4.40/4 Padres u8 -110
❌4/4.00 Angels +100
❌5/3.16 TWINS +1½ -158
✅4/4.00 Yankees u7 +100
❌5/2.68 ASTROS -186
❌5/5.00 ASTROS u7½ +100
⛅6/4.11 GIANTS -146
⛅4.60/4 Tigers u8 -115
❌3/1.33 GUARDIANS -226
❌4/2.96 GUARDIANS -1½ -135
✅5/3.21 BRAVES -156
✅4/2.67 METS -150
✅4.40/4 Athletics u9 -110
❌2.25/6 ROCKIES +267

MONDAY
  • 4.68/4 MARLINS u7½ -117
  • 5/3.40 Cardinals -147
  • 3/2.22 Rockies -135
  • 2/2.70 Rockies -1½ +135
  • 4.08/4 BRAVES o8½ -102
  • 5/4.13 Guardians -121
  • 4/4.00 Tigers u8 +100
  • 4/3.23 BLUE JAYS -124
  • 4/4.20 Astros u8 +105
  • 4.40/4 White Sox u8 -110
  • 4/2.86 BREWERS -140
Daily risk/win: 44.16/38.74 avg vig -1.14

1681735559217.png
ngSetrt.png

post-83643-0-1446068416-63099.jpg
 
Last edited:
Sunday chalk of 200 or more before the break last 7 year. Over 10% ROI both SU & RL :haveanidea:
Not to mention 19-5 in last 24(pictured)

View attachment 73097


That crazy, I love your charts man, really appreciate when you take the time! Just thought I’d let you know they mot being posted for nothing!! (Always nice to hear taking the time is helping someone out!).

Really surprises me cause sure feels like we getting some silly very early big lines, this just for Sunday tho correct? That might make bit more sense cause you got what supposedly much better team often needing to get the win to take series. It just been baffling to me how early they been willing to make a team like cardinals -200 vs a team like pirates, im not sure what makes them convinced cardinals are that much better a team? Im certainly not! lol.
 
Last edited:
Gausman should carve up Stros depleted lineup. Gl today
That's what I thought too :mad:
That crazy, I love your charts man, really appreciate when you take the time! Just thought I’d let you know they mot being posted for nothing!! (Always nice to hear taking the time is helping someone out!).

Really surprises me cause sure feels like we getting some silly very early big lines, this just for Sunday tho correct? That might make bit more sense cause you got what supposedly much better team often needing to get the win to take series. It just been baffling to me how early they been willing to make a team like cardinals -200 vs a team like pirates, im not sure what makes them convinced cardinals are that much better a team? Im certainly not! lol.
Yes Sunday only on that query

I put these sheets together for myself daily, so it's only a matter of copy/paste to share them...and maybe add in a few pics for fun :assshake:

But definitely glad other folks enjoy seeing them
 
19ASSUMLBCRDS12NGSTL

--- MLB ---
2023 [114-109 +7.25u]
LAST [2-6-3 -15.22u]

MONDAY 44.16/38.74 avg vig -1.14
✅4.68/4 MARLINS u7½ -117
❌5/3.40 Cardinals -147
❌3/2.22 Rockies -135
❌2/2.70 Rockies -1½ +135
❌4.08/4 BRAVES o8½ -102
⛅5/4.13 Guardians -121
⛅4/4.00 Tigers u8 +100
❌4/3.23 BLUE JAYS -124
❌4/4.20 Astros u8 +105
⛅4.40/4 White Sox u8 -110
✅4/2.86 BREWERS -140

TUESDAY
  • 6/3.77 Cardinals -159
  • 3/2.97 Rockies -101
  • 1.80/3 Rockies -1½ +167
  • 3.45/3 PIRATES o12½ -115
  • 4/2.99 Braves -134
  • 4.40/4 Padres u7½ -110
  • 3/1.97 Dodgers -152
  • 5/3.85 Guardians -130 (G1)
  • 3/3.33 Royals +111
  • 3/3.00 Royals o9 +100
  • 3.30/3 Blue Jays o9 -110
  • 3/3.24 REDS +108
  • 4/3.03 O'S -132
  • 5/3.36 M'S -149
  • 6/3.61 CUBS -166

58.95/49.12 Avg Vig -1.200

Unfortunately, I'm on a lot of chalk again today, but that's they way it reads for now. I try to make plays without emotion 99% of the time, as I realized a long time ago that's usually a worse option, at least for me.

bL58DFY.png

RElV9IS.png

1681825622306.png
 
Last edited:
That's what I thought too :mad:

Yes Sunday only on that query

I put these sheets together for myself daily, so it's only a matter of copy/paste to share them...and maybe add in a few pics for fun :assshake:

But definitely glad other folks enjoy seeing them

2 days in a row I had a jays pitcher look like he was drinking before the game! Come out in 1st inning and walked as many guys as he had all year!! Then he settles in and fans 5, the Mfer punches out Alvarez 2x but can’t get the scrubs out in the 6-7-8 holes!! I don’t get it, somehjing going on with some these jays pitchers who getting smashed while throwing 40 pitches to get out the 1st inning! Even worse they then have 2-3 innings where they look unhittable until their pitch count gets high and they start giving it up again till they get yanked early. Really frustrating when you seem him have a inning vs 2-3-4 he gets every guy in 0-2, 1-2 hole, punches 2 of them while the 3rd barely made contact, you see that and it just rubbing our nose in the fact they gonna come up 1-2 k’s short cause they couldn’t be bothered being ready to start game! The pitch sequence he threw ti those guys in 2md inning (I think) was incredible. Painting low and outside 95 heat till 2 strikes then throwing the splitter right at that spot before dropping off the table! Where was that focus against the guys who shoulda been easy to punch out?
 
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