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Ambetter 301 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Ambetter 301 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Ambetter 301
Sunday, July 17, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET (USA) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire

Last Week's Race


Last week was something of a dream come true for Chase Elliott.

The Quaker State 400 took place last week in the vicinity of Atlanta.

Given this race's location, it was a homecoming for Elliott who, for the most part, grew up in Georgia.

He won this race, and his victory was convincing.

No doubt, the race was a competitive one.

But Elliott was a threat from the beginning since he won pole position.

He also won the first two stages of the race.

Overall, he led 96 of the laps.

With a few laps to go, he made the crucial pass, skillfully earning his win.

His victory was certainly meaningful to him on an emotional level.

Not only did he win, but he got to be rewarded by a highly supportive crowd, well-aware of his deep tie to Georgia.

Plus, he remains atop the NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings.

He leads everybody with 684 points. Ross Chastain is 50 points behind him, and then there is an even steeper drop-off to Joey Logano in third place.

Because it is hard and rare in NASCAR to win back-to-back races, we may exclude Elliott from our list of candidates to win the upcoming race.

Race Info

This week, the Ambetter 301 takes place in New Hampshire's motor speedway, in a small town -- named Loudon -- in a small state.

Unlike the NASCAR Cup Series races that took place most immediately prior to last week's competition in Atlanta, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is eminently familiar to NASCAR drivers.

For this week's New Hampshire rendition, drivers must complete a total of 301 laps.

As has almost always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 70 laps.

Stage 2 ends upon completion of lap 185.

Stage 3 consists in the remaining 116 laps.

Entry List

As is customary, an entry list for the upcoming racing event has already been published.

36 teams/drivers out of 40 possible spots are posted on this entry list.

Thus, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will participate in this race.

We may expect all the usual suspects.

Starting Lineup

This year and in this race, the order in which driver start the race gets determined via qualifying.

Qualifying takes place on Saturday, the day before the race, at 12:15 p.m. ET and it finishes at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Qualifying will be two groups, single-vehicle, one lap, and two rounds.

As is often the case, a practice session immediately precedes qualifying.

Practice takes place from 11:30 a.m. to 12:15 p.m. ET on the same day.

Track Info

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is known as "The Magic Mile."

It is a rare one-mile track -- Phoenix and Dover host the other two one-mile NASCAR tracks.

Its length is 1.058 miles per lap.

So, in completing 301 laps, drivers will have accumulated around 318 laps.

This asphalt and granite track is known for its wide turns.

Drivers will need to use these turns well in order to corral strong momentum for their vehicles.

There is not a lot of banking here to help them increase their speeds.

The turns are banked variably, between two to seven degrees, which is vastly less than other venues.

Meanwhile, the straightaways are banked at one degree.

My Favorite Bet

Bovada offers strong match-up betting opportunities for this race.

My favorite bet is to favor Ryan Blaney head-to-head against Chase Elliott.

Blaney is rounding into form, having finished top-six in four of his last five races.

This is just the track in which to expect another strong effort from Blaney because it is historically one of his favorite ones.

He has finished top-five in two of his last three efforts here.

Conversely, Elliott has finished 18th, ninth, and 29thin his last three races here.

Plus, he is primed for a letdown since he is coming off an emotional win.

Both history and the situation speak against him while Blaney is in a great spot.

For the above reasons, bet on Blaney to finish ahead of Elliott.

Best Bet: Ryan Blaney (-130) to Finish Ahead of Chase Elliott at Bovada
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I made these bets for the Xfinity race tomorrow:

1 unit:
Ryan Sieg -115 over Creed (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Jeb Burton +145 over Moffitt (BAS)

I made these bets for the Cup race on Sunday:

1 unit:
Briscoe -115 over Kurt Busch (BAS)
Harvick -115 over Bell (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +2500 (Bovada)
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
Briscoe was fast in practice but had a bad qualifying lap. Should be able to get better odds on him because of the qualifying lap.

Harvick was fast in practice and was in top 10 in qualifying and made it to round 2, but in round 2 his car got loose so he had to back out and qualified 10th. May be able to get better odds on him based on his lower starting position.

Kurt Busch and Bell were slow in practice but both qualified in the Top 5.

RFK racing was surprisingly fast in both practice and qualifying. So both Keselowski and Buescher may both be worth a look in their matchups.

Bubba was fast in both practice and qualifying and will be starting 4th, which is a surprise. I will not be betting on him though.

Almirola was also fast in practice and qualifying. He is good at this track, so I will bet on him if the matchups are not too bad.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I made these bets for the Xfinity race tomorrow:

1 unit:
Ryan Sieg -115 over Creed (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Jeb Burton +145 over Moffitt (BAS)

I made these bets for the Cup race on Sunday:

1 unit:
Briscoe -115 over Kurt Busch (BAS)
Harvick -115 over Bell (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +2500 (Bovada)
The Xfinity race is not over but both of the guys that I bet on were taken out in a wreck.

-1.65 units
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Harvick's numbers all dropped. Was +1600 now +1200. If he's ever going to win, it will be this race. Not saying it's going to happen. But he has shown a bit more speed lately. I'll be playing him in H2Hs.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I added these for the Cup race:

1 unit:
Keselowski +105 over Bubba (BAS)
Briscoe -125 over Suarez (BAS)
Harvick -130 over Bell (BAS)
Blaney -110 over Hamlin (BAS)

Thinking about:
Larson +120 over Chase Elliott
Byron +110 over Chase Elliott
 
Last edited:

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
Harvick's numbers all dropped. Was +1600 now +1200. If he's ever going to win, it will be this race. Not saying it's going to happen. But he has shown a bit more speed lately. I'll be playing him in H2Hs.
I think Harvick was 7th in qualifying after the first round. In the final round his car got loose so he shut it down and did not attempt to finish the lap, which is why he is starting 10th.

Larson also got loose in the final round of qualifying which is why he is starting 8th.

Both have better cars than their starting position.

The best cars in both qualifying and practice were Truex, Chase Elliott, Byron, Larson, and Harvick.

Kyle Busch and Chase Briscoe we're both really good in practice (Top 3) but had a bad qualifying lap.

Kurt Busch and Bell were average in practice, but put up great qualifying laps, although Bell did not put up many laps in practice.

Almirola, Keselowski, and Bubba we're were all solid in practice and qualifying. It is hard to trust Bubba on a non-super speedway.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I added:

1 unit:
Harvick -125 over Chastain (BM)
Briscoe -120 over Suarez (Bovada)
Larson +130 over Elliott (BAS)
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I added:

1 unit:
Buescher -120 over McDowell in Stage 1 (Bovada)

I have:

2 units:
Briscoe -120 & -125 over Suarez (Bovada & BAS)
Harvick -115 & -130 over Bell (BAS)

1 unit:
Briscoe -115 over Kurt Busch (BAS) This is now +115
Harvick -125 over Chastain (BM)
Keselowski +105 over Bubba (BAS)
Larson +130 over Elliott (BAS)
Blaney -110 over Hamlin (BAS)
Buescher -120 over McDowell in Stage 1 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +2500 (Bovada)
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I added:

1 unit:
Buescher -120 over McDowell in Stage 1 (Bovada)

I have:

2 units:
Briscoe -120 & -125 over Suarez (Bovada & BAS)
Harvick -115 & -130 over Bell (BAS)

1 unit:
Briscoe -115 over Kurt Busch (BAS) This is now +115
Harvick -125 over Chastain (BM)
Keselowski +105 over Bubba (BAS)
Larson +130 over Elliott (BAS)
Blaney -110 over Hamlin (BAS)
Buescher -120 over McDowell in Stage 1 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe Top 10 +115 (Bovada)

$20 Briscoe to win +2500 (Bovada)
Horrible day -7.85 units

New Hampshire:
Xfinity -1.65 units
Cup -7.85 units

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +9.17 units
Cup +36.13 units
Both +45.3 units
 
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