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AdventHealth 400 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Junior Moderator
Staff member
AdventHealth 400 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: AdventHealth 400
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas

Last Week

Last week, the NASCAR Cup Series featured the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway.

Even though he didn't win, Chase Elliott's performance may have been the most impressive.

Elliott started in the rear and was forced to compete in a backup car.

Despite competing on a narrow track, he worked his way up to a fifth-placed finish.

But when the initial circumstances are unfavorable enough, producing the most impressive effort does not result in a win.

Joey Logano won. It was a clear win at the end for Logano, whose win was the first of his season and his first ever at Darlington Raceway.

Excluding Guys

Because it is very hard and rare to win back-to-back races in NASCAR's Cup Series, we will exclude Logano from the list of our potential candidates to win this week's race.

Moreover, Kyle Larson needs to be excluded because oddsmakers continue to overrate him.

He has been favored in most races this season, although he has won only once and has repeatedly suffered catastrophic performances.

At the prices that oddsmakers are offering, he just isn't worth it.

Race Info

This week's NASCAR Cup Series race is the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway.

For this race, drivers must complete a total of 267 laps.

As has always been the case this season, there are going to be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 80 laps.

Stage 2 consists in the following 85 laps.

For the Final Stage, drivers will race 102 laps.

By now, an entry list has been published for this race.

There are 36 teams/drivers posted on this entry list, which means that all the usual suspects are involved.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will compete at this event.

As for the starting lineup, that gets determined via qualifying.

Qualifying will take place on Saturday, the day before the race, at 4:35 p.m. ET.

It will be single-vehicle, one lap, and two rounds.

A 35 minute practice session will precede qualifying directly.

Track Info

This race takes place at Kansas Speedway, a larger oval track that some people may consider a miniature version of the Michigan International Speedway.

Each lap at the Kansas Speedway is 1.5 miles long.

So, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accumulated about 400 miles.

The banking at this track is pretty decent.

Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 17 to 20 degrees.

Turns 3 and 4 are also banked at 17 to 20 degrees.

This level of banking will help increase driving speeds as drivers use the banking to corral momentum for their vehicles.

Guys I Dislike

I dislike Martin Truex Jr. because he continues to show poor form.

For the third time in his last five tries this season, he has failed to finish within the top 20. He has also failed to finish top-10 in four of his last five races.

An even sadder story may be told about Denny Hamlin who has finished 18thor worse in each of his last five races.

My Guy

I like Kevin Harvick for this race because I think that he is being criminally underrated by oddsmakers.

Harvick is rounding into form as evident in the fact that he has improved his finishing position for a third straight race relative to the race before.

Moreover, Harvick consistently thrives at Kansas Speedway. He has earned four straight top-four finishes.

Despite these facts, we can get a really nice payout for a top-five finish from him.

Best Bet: Harvick Top 5 Finish at +205 with Bovada
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I have bet all of these, before practice & qualifying:

1 unit:
Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS) Buecher is more likely to qualify better than Bubba so went ahead and bet it.
Buescher +115 over Keselowski (BAS) Keselowski is trying too hard and Buescher is finishing ahead of him by being steady in the same equipment.
Kevin Harvick Top 10 -120 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon +125 over Erik Jones (BAS) Jones is probably more likely to qualify better than Dillon, but at +money I bet a 1/2 unit for now.
Austin Dillon -115 over Cindric (BAS)
Austin Dillon Top 10 +190 (Bovada) Probably closer to a coin flip than +190

I may add more to these after qualifying pending the new odds.
I will bet some Harvick matchups, but the odds will probably be better after qualifying for him against people like Logano and Blaney.
 
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He Hate Me

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Buescher hits the wall in practice, he will not qualify and will go to a backup car.
Steinhouse hits the wall. He will not qualify and will likely go to a backup car.
Logano hits the wall. He will not qualify and will likely go to a backup car.
Blaney spins in practice but does not hit anything.
Hamlin spins in practice but does not hit anything.

It appears all of these were due to blown/flat tires.

The Busch brothers were fast.
Reddick and Austin Dillon were both fast.
Chastain and Cindric were fast.
Buescher was fast before he wrecked.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
Bell on the pole and Reddick 2nd.

After practice & qualifying, I will probably add to my Austin Dillon bets, although Cindric qualified well.

Even with him going to a backup, I may still add to Buescher over Keselowski. Keselowski is lost right now.

I am undecided about Harvick.

I will bet Reddick if I can, but I think the matchups or odds will be good.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
To the rear: Hamlin Logano Buescher Stenhouse. Logano and Buescher in backup cars.
It is raining so they will probably have a competition caution.

Added:

1 unit:
Kyle Busch -120 over Byron (BAS)
Kyle Busch -125 over Hamlin (BAS)
Chastain -115 over Blaney (BAS)
Reddick -130 over Blaney (BAS)
Reddick -125 over Bowman (BAS)
Austin Dillon +130 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Buescher +100 over Keselowski (BAS)
Kurt Busch to win Stage 1 -115 over Truex (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon +125 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Austin Dillon -120 over Cindric (BAS)
Austin Dillon Top 10 +200 (Bovada)
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I have:

2 units:
Buescher +115 & +100 over Keselowski (BAS)
Austin Dillon +125 & +130 over Erik Jones (BAS)

1 unit:
Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS)
Kyle Busch -120 over Byron (BAS)
Kyle Busch -125 over Hamlin (BAS)
Chastain -115 over Blaney (BAS)
Reddick -130 over Blaney (BAS)
Reddick -125 over Bowman (BAS)
Austin Dillon -115 & -120 over Cindric (BAS)
Kurt Busch to win Stage 1 -115 over Truex (Bovada)
Austin Dillon Top 10 +190 & +200 (Bovada)
Kevin Harvick Top 10 -120 (Bovada) This is now +135
 

King Slap

Well-Known Member
Do you think this guy that's 1000 to 1 is either A.) Riding a horse around the track, B.) Driving a Prius or C.) Running around it barefoot
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I added $20 on Reddick +825 (BM)
The dirt racers (Bell, Reddick, Larson, the guys that can ride the top of the wall) qualified really fast. I think today might be Reddicks day. Bell has qualified well alot of races this year then stb in the race.

All the Toyotas looked good. Should be a fun race.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Do you think this guy that's 1000 to 1 is either A.) Riding a horse around the track, B.) Driving a Prius or C.) Running around it barefoot
He's not in good equipment and he's probably not ready for a full time cup ride. I actually like him. I think he has potential. I cashed him a couple of times in the truck series. But he needs alot more seasoning.
 

He Hate Me

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I don't understand why Larson is favored in his matchups over Kyle Busch, but I did not bet it.
I also do not understand why Larson (-175) is favored by so much over Chase Elliott, but I did not bet it.

It looks like they will start the race on time, despite the rain.
No announcement on a comp caution, but I would assume they will have one with the rain this morning and the blown tires in practice yesterday.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I don't understand why Larson is favored in his matchups over Kyle Busch, but I did not bet it.
I also do not understand why Larson (-175) is favored by so much over Chase Elliott, but I did not bet it.

It looks like they will start the race on time, despite the rain.
No announcement on a comp caution, but I would assume they will have one with the rain this morning and the blown tires in practice yesterday.
Yep you're still paying 2021 prices on him this year, despite the fact he has as many finishes of 19th or worse as he does top 10s this year.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I don't understand why Larson is favored in his matchups over Kyle Busch, but I did not bet it.
I also do not understand why Larson (-175) is favored by so much over Chase Elliott, but I did not bet it.

It looks like they will start the race on time, despite the rain.
No announcement on a comp caution, but I would assume they will have one with the rain this morning and the blown tires in practice yesterday.
No comp caution. Just announced
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I have:

2 units:
Buescher +115 & +100 over Keselowski (BAS)
Austin Dillon +125 & +130 over Erik Jones (BAS)

1 unit:
Buescher -105 over Bubba (BAS)
Kyle Busch -120 over Byron (BAS)
Kyle Busch -125 over Hamlin (BAS)
Kyle Busch +105 over Larson (BM)
Chastain -115 over Blaney (BAS)
Reddick -130 over Blaney (BAS)
Reddick -125 over Bowman (BAS)
Austin Dillon -115 & -120 over Cindric (BAS)
Kurt Busch to win Stage 1 -115 over Truex (Bovada)
Austin Dillon Top 10 +190 & +200 (Bovada)
Kevin Harvick Top 10 -120 (Bovada) This is now +135

$30 on Reddick +825 (BM)

Don't really like my Harvick Top 10 bet anymore. He is starting 23rd, his pit crew has not been good this year and it will be tough to pass. I saw an interview with him and he said they were "missing a little bit". Then when asked about being able to make changes to catch back up, he said "I am not sure. You can always make changes, but you kinda got what you got."
 
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He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
Buescher pitted under green again for some reason, now 3 laps down. Maybe a tire going down?
Not going to be a good day for me with his issues along with Reddick's issues.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
And Chastain with an issue in the pits.

At this point, I need Keselowski to wreck to have any chance of winning money today. Even if Kurt Busch wins.
 

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