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268

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
WOW, for the first time ever we get 2 numbered events in consecutive week and this card at the Garden should not disappoint. It has the makings of a great card with at least 4 must see fights! Can't wait!

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Although by the smallest margins, I have managed winning nights in 4 of last 5 cards. :rolleyes:

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 268: Prelims

  • C. J. VERGARA (9-2-1) VS ODE OSBOURNE (9-4) - Osbourne KO Round 1 (ITD +125 ~ Only option at my books) ...The stocky Texan is a powerful fighter who should have no
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    trouble cracking the paper chin of Osbourne, but he cannot afford to fight with reckless abandon. While Vergara’s durability is slightly in his favor, this feels like a quick fire-fight with the winner being the man first to punish an errant power shot.
  • DUSTIN JACOBY (15-5-1) VS JOHN ALLAN (13-6) - Jacoby -340 ...Allan may well be tough as nails but he will be a sitting duck for fifteen minutes against Jacoby. The Brazilian is far too hittable, unable to takedown Jacoby, and unlikely to ever read Jacoby’s variety. While the American is a last-minute replacement, he has only shown in the UFC the ability to engage in his preferred fight and stay away from Allan’s preferred phone booth brawl.
  • GIAN VILLANTE (17-13) VS CHRIS BARNETT (21-7) - Barnett KO (ITD +175) ...I simply cannot back Gian Villante at Heavyweight. Chris Barnett represents one of the last bastions of a by-gone era. The big lad has journeyed across many promotions on the back of being a small, overweight Heavyweight who pulls off crazy aesthetic spinning/jumping attacks. Against Villante, a man who has eaten himself into a punching bag, Barnett will have a couple of opportunities per round to land something special.
  • JORDAN WILLIAMS (9-5) VS IAN GARRY (7-0) - Garry Sub (-175 ITD)...I mean, there is always the prospect of a flash knockout? Williams certainly carries the power, but his inability to deliver it in a meaningful manner leaves him stranded eating damage. Without the gas tank to remain a lethal threat outside of the first round, Williams should be an easy opponent for Garry to game plan against. Don’t buy into the hype just yet!
  • EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN (11-2) VS NASSOURDINE IMAVOV (10-3) - Shahbazyan Decision +325 ...An excellent match-up that Shahbazyan shows the smallest of edges in. A fast starter that fades after opponents have read his dangerous initial layer of striking, Imavov’s sniping counter-striking is unlikely to win the early rounds. Granted, the Frenchman will be able to pick apart Shahbazyan by the later rounds as the youthful prospect hasn’t shown the ability to adapt on the spot. Shahbazyan’s greater control over his output in the Hermansson fight leads me to backing him.
  • PHIL HAWES (11-2) VS CHRIS CURTIS (26-8) - Hawes -295 ...Low-output counter-striking and an aversion to risks ensures that Curtis keeps himself relevant until the final round. Hawes, a flawed fighter, could well walk himself onto a hard technical counter from Curtis. The freakishly powerful hands and wrestling of Hawes, however, are too great an equalizer to overlook.
  • AL IAQUINTA (14-6-1) VS BOBBY GREEN (27-12-1) - Green Decision -125 ...It has been over two years since we’ve seen the loud-mouthed Yankee in the octagon. Unfortunately for Al, ring-rust or not, his style should be countered by Green. Green’s solid TDD will keep the fight standing, while his jab should regularly punish Iaquinta’s tendency to sit on the center-line. Most likely, however, Green will happily allow a back-and-forth affair in the pocket where he can showcase his slick head movement and counter-striking. This never lends itself to dominant scorecards, however, and it is only with great caution that I back the in-form Green. Very close call and maybe the over will show better value.
  • ANDREAS MICHAILIDIS (13-4) VS ALEX PEREIRA (3-1) - Pereira KO Round 1 (-120 ITD) ...Make no mistake. This is a kickboxer against an experienced MMA operator. Pereira may well be on the way to a rude awakening. Michailidis was more than happy to dive on takedowns against Modestas Bukauskas, and Pereira’s lack of experience on the mat will sorely show. Unfortunately for the Greek, he is too happy to engage in a brawl before shooting. To do so against Pereira is near-suicidal, considering Pereira’s ridiculous power.
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
First 3....
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[0-0 +0.0u]

  • 2/1.02 ODE OSBOURNE -197
  • 1.60/2 ODE OSBOURNE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +125
  • 3/0.85 DUSTIN JACOBY -353
  • 1/1.11 CHRIS BARNETT +111
  • 1/6.50 CHRIS BARNETT IN ROUND 2 +650
  • 1/9.00 CHRIS BARNETT IN ROUND 3 +900
  • 1.14/2 CHRIS BARNETT KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +175

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Nice KO by the heavy, check out flip at the end for 265 lb'er link

Next 2...

[5-3 +7.88 u]

  • 1/1.08 EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN +108
  • 1/3.35 EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN BY 3 RD DECISION +335
  • 2/1.14 IAN GARRY KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -175
  • 1/4.25 JORDAN WILLIAMS VS IAN GARRY ENDS BY SUBMISSION +425
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Damn that was a brutal fuckin KO Edmen endured, elbows over and over to the head link

[6-6 +6.02u]
  • 4/1.37 PHIL HAWES -291
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
This fukn clown Hawes with so much talent and he's so careless to get caught by a blown up welterweight. I should have known better as I even wrote he was flawed earlier post. link
:embarassed:

[6-7 +2.02 u]

  • 2/1.38- BOBBY GREEN BY 3 RD DECISION -145
  • 1.98/2 ANDREAS MICHAILIDIS vs ALEX PEREIRA u1½ +101
  • 3/1.26 ALEX PEREIRA -239
  • 2/1.67 ALEX PEREIRA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 268: Main Card

  • 250832983_1526189697765848_4679539849961083959_n.jpgJUSTIN GAETHJE (22-3) VS MICHAEL CHANDLER (22-6) - Gathje KO ...A fantastic fight that would perhaps be more interesting in a five-round format. One key to the fight is the low kick. Even the great Khabib, struggled with the aggressive leg kicks that Gaethje throws freely throughout his fights. Chandler has shown a vulnerability to low kicks in the past, suffering a dead leg to Brent Primus. Early pressure to the lower half may force Chandler into panic wrestling, opening himself up to damage in the process. Still, Gaethje’s wrestling credentials are regularly overrated. Taken down by both Michael Johnson and Eddie Alvarez (obviously, Khabib too), Chandler could well buy himself vital control time and rounds on the mat. If, as expected, Gaethje weathers Chandler’s early power – the safest call is the walking highlight reel to find the finish in the 2nd or 3rd.
  • SHANE BURGOS (13-3) VS BILLY QUARANTILLO (16-3) - Burgos ...Quarantillo, for all the relentless pressure on the feet, is tame compared to the power of Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza. Burgos’ scrambles should be able to keep this fight moslty standing, and his pace should out-last Quarantillo’s forward pressure. Worryingly, Burgos’ delayed knockout to Barboza may have been the first visible sign of wear and tear after years of wars. If Burgos is a shell of his former self, Quarantillo’s trips and ground threat could be as much of a threat as it was against Gabriel Benitez. Too much experience though imho here as Billy's not ready for this level quite yet.
  • FRANKIE EDGAR (24-9-1) VS MARLON VERA (19-7-1) - Vera KO late ...The likelihood of Edgar cruising out a decision is pretty compelling. Vera is frustratingly inept off his back and is at an athletic disadvantage to a forty-year old. Even with a freakishly deep gas tank, a clear path to victory in wrestling superiority, and an athletic edge – Edgar has to successfully close the distance three times this fight, that’s two too many for me to be confident in his chin with Vera excellent striking.
  • ROSE NAMAJUNAS (10-4) VS WEILI ZHANG (21-2) UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship - Zhang KO ...Can Rose replicate her first-round knockout? Yes, absolutely. Is it likely? No. Instead, there is a greater chance that Rose secures the early rounds with her exceptional use of angles and ability to pepper a more conservative Zhang from range. Around the mid-point, however, it will be Rose’s durability that comes into question as Zhang’s confidence grows after eating Rose’s shots. Of greatest interest is Rose’s defensive grappling and whether it can hold up in the championship rounds. Confidence will flood back to Zhang if she lands her tree-chopping leg kicks early. Rose’s long, bladed stance is a prime target for the former champ – forcing Namajunas to square up and enable Zhang to close the distance with less risk. Add on the bodywork that will pay dividends by the later rounds, and Zhang could regain her title in a brutal fashion. Love Rose though, so this one will be tough to pull.
  • KAMARU USMAN (19-1) VS COLBY COVINGTON (16-2) UFC Welterweight Championship - Usman decision ...This isn’t as clear-cut an Usman victory as first presumed. Re-watching the first fight reveals several occasions where Covington shook Usman with the ferocious pace and volume that he is capable of pouring out for 5 five full rounds. Usman’s recent firepower under Wittman has been pleasing, yet his lack of defensive savvy may remain exploitable for Covington. To say Covington doesn’t have a chance of winning this would be foolish. Unfortunately for Colby fans, ring rust is likely to rear its ugly head. Aside from a muted victory over a decrepit Tyron Woodley, Covington has effectively remained inactive for two years. If there were ever a fighter to struggle with a bruised ego – it would be the confidence fighter whose striking centers around a belief in out-pacing, out-gritting opponents. If either man engages in the grappling department, Usman’s size may prove the key differential, but we'll likely see a repeat of their solely striking contest from the first meeting. Ima Colby fan, so if I'm up at this point...I may just take a flyer with the cardio machine.
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Damn what a night of knockouts so far...Al's usually a tough SOB, but I guess he was caught on the button. link
 

skanless13

Well-Known Member
UFC 268: Main Card

  • View attachment 59682JUSTIN GAETHJE (22-3) VS MICHAEL CHANDLER (22-6) - Gathje KO ...A fantastic fight that would perhaps be more interesting in a five-round format. One key to the fight is the low kick. Even the great Khabib, struggled with the aggressive leg kicks that Gaethje throws freely throughout his fights. Chandler has shown a vulnerability to low kicks in the past, suffering a dead leg to Brent Primus. Early pressure to the lower half may force Chandler into panic wrestling, opening himself up to damage in the process. Still, Gaethje’s wrestling credentials are regularly overrated. Taken down by both Michael Johnson and Eddie Alvarez (obviously, Khabib too), Chandler could well buy himself vital control time and rounds on the mat. If, as expected, Gaethje weathers Chandler’s early power – the safest call is the walking highlight reel to find the finish in the 2nd or 3rd.
  • SHANE BURGOS (13-3) VS BILLY QUARANTILLO (16-3) - Burgos ...Quarantillo, for all the relentless pressure on the feet, is tame compared to the power of Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza. Burgos’ scrambles should be able to keep this fight moslty standing, and his pace should out-last Quarantillo’s forward pressure. Worryingly, Burgos’ delayed knockout to Barboza may have been the first visible sign of wear and tear after years of wars. If Burgos is a shell of his former self, Quarantillo’s trips and ground threat could be as much of a threat as it was against Gabriel Benitez. Too much experience though imho here as Billy's not ready for this level quite yet.
  • FRANKIE EDGAR (24-9-1) VS MARLON VERA (19-7-1) - Vera KO late ...The likelihood of Edgar cruising out a decision is pretty compelling. Vera is frustratingly inept off his back and is at an athletic disadvantage to a forty-year old. Even with a freakishly deep gas tank, a clear path to victory in wrestling superiority, and an athletic edge – Edgar has to successfully close the distance three times this fight, that’s two too many for me to be confident in his chin with Vera excellent striking.
  • ROSE NAMAJUNAS (10-4) VS WEILI ZHANG (21-2) UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship - Zhang KO ...Can Rose replicate her first-round knockout? Yes, absolutely. Is it likely? No. Instead, there is a greater chance that Rose secures the early rounds with her exceptional use of angles and ability to pepper a more conservative Zhang from range. Around the mid-point, however, it will be Rose’s durability that comes into question as Zhang’s confidence grows after eating Rose’s shots. Of greatest interest is Rose’s defensive grappling and whether it can hold up in the championship rounds. Confidence will flood back to Zhang if she lands her tree-chopping leg kicks early. Rose’s long, bladed stance is a prime target for the former champ – forcing Namajunas to square up and enable Zhang to close the distance with less risk. Add on the bodywork that will pay dividends by the later rounds, and Zhang could regain her title in a brutal fashion. Love Rose though, so this one will be tough to pull.
  • KAMARU USMAN (19-1) VS COLBY COVINGTON (16-2) UFC Welterweight Championship - Usman decision ...This isn’t as clear-cut an Usman victory as first presumed. Re-watching the first fight reveals several occasions where Covington shook Usman with the ferocious pace and volume that he is capable of pouring out for 5 five full rounds. Usman’s recent firepower under Wittman has been pleasing, yet his lack of defensive savvy may remain exploitable for Covington. To say Covington doesn’t have a chance of winning this would be foolish. Unfortunately for Colby fans, ring rust is likely to rear its ugly head. Aside from a muted victory over a decrepit Tyron Woodley, Covington has effectively remained inactive for two years. If there were ever a fighter to struggle with a bruised ego – it would be the confidence fighter whose striking centers around a belief in out-pacing, out-gritting opponents. If either man engages in the grappling department, Usman’s size may prove the key differential, but we'll likely see a repeat of their solely striking contest from the first meeting. Ima Colby fan, so if I'm up at this point...I may just take a flyer with the cardio machine.
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Man, I really hope you’re right about Covington’s chances, but it seems Colby fought his best fight the 1st time, and Usman seems to have improved more than Colby, especially in stand up. Usman’s strength just seems to much for Colby. I really hope I’m wrong though.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Nice finish after tough first round, dude's a hard hitter, but you know that as Cormier musta said it 25 times. :rofl: link

Love the next fight, probably top play of the night, but still Chandler is dangerous for a round so I got a little insurance...lol

[9-8 +4.95u]
  • 7/3.48 JUSTIN GAETHJE -201
  • 3/2.40 JUSTIN GAETHJE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
  • 1/5.50 MICHAEL CHANDLER IN ROUND 1 +550
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Man, I really hope you’re right about Covington’s chances, but it seems Colby fought his best fight the 1st time, and Usman seems to have improved more than Colby, especially in stand up. Usman’s strength just seems to much for Colby. I really hope I’m wrong though.
Yep, I believe Usman is the better more proven fighter, but Colby still carries intangibles like getting in Kamara's head. I think the shove at the presser proved that. Colby proved the first time he can connect, but he still needs to avoid Usman's big shots as they obviously carry more power. Unlikely win for Colby, but I really don't think the odds should be this high...more like -150 to -180 would be way more spot on imho

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Some huge KO's already, let's see if the highlight reel has one left. This should be awesome!

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Wow, I got a lot more respect for Chandler now. He's as tough as they come. Great fight except I lost money..lol

[10-10 +4.43u]
  • 2/1.19 SHANE BURGOS -168
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Billy absolutely fought his heart out. These guys take unreal shots and keep coming. Burgos is very talented striker with excellent TDD.

[11-10 +5.62u]
  • 1.41/1 MARLON VERA -141
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
All these fights have been good, let's see if the top of the card lives up to the night

I'm going with my heart instead of the more prudent selection, but at least I will be guaranteed a winning night! :cool:

[12-10 +6.62u]
  • 1/1.01 ROSE NAMAJUNAS (W) +101
  • 2/1.57 WEILI ZHANG (W) vs ROSE NAMAJUNAS (W) u4½-127
  • 1.22/3 COLBY COVINGTON +246

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[13-12 +4.41u]1636295112278.png

Love him or hate him, I believe there has to be added respect for Colby after tonight's performance. Although obviously overmatched with power, plus getting banged around early on...he still dug dug deep and finished 5 tough rounds; winning at least 1-2 rounds after initially taking damage. Not the greatest night for me, but any night that's positive is a winning night and the fights were excellent. All true fight fan were truly treated to one of the best cards top to bottom in a long time!

 
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