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2023 KY Derby Thoughts

BringInTheLefty

Well-Known Member
Just 23 days until the Run For The Roses
I’ve narrowed my contenders to four
I won’t have my top pick & saver until post positions have been drawn






Forte & Tapit Trice are both quality horses trained by Pletcher but will only be used in the place,show & 4th positions on all my tickets





Two Phil’s:
This run away winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks is likely to get overlooked by the wagering public as 6 weeks will have gone by since that victory and many other contenders coming off more recent efforts will command more attention.
In addition, winning on the synthetic surface will create some additional dismissal.
he is one of the few horses in here that has run two 9-furlong preps. Couple that with his excellent balanced Energy Distribution Profile and his heavy route breeding and added ground here is of no concern. The Risen Star set up with an extreme early hot pace and he was the only horse tracking that heat that held on to hit the board. This is the opposite of the extremely slow pace Always Dreaming had to overcome in his prep.





Derma Sotogake:
He comes into this race fresh from the UAE Derby
Which is run at the distance of 1900 meters which falls 33 feet short of a true 9.5 furlongs distance. In viewing the replay, both the meters remaining in the race and the clock were running simultaneously so one could easily isolate the fractions at each traditional point of call. For Derma Sotogake, who won wire-to-wire, his estimated fractions in the UAE Derby were as follows: 48 3/5; 1:13 2/5; 1:38; 1:55 4/5. To compare, the winner of the La Derby, Kingsbarns, ran a similar slow early/fast late race shape going close to the same 9.5 furlongs distance and his fractions were 49 3/5; 1:14 3/5; 1:39; 1:57 1/5. Without considering differences in racing surface variants, the estimated BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures for Derma Sotogake were derived below. We also looked at the fractions Havnameltdown ran in the Saudi Cup with Derma Sotogake tracking several lengths behind that runner and it served to confirm that those figures shown below in the UAE Derby are close to accurate. He ran that last 3/16ths in the UAE Derby in :17 4/5 seconds versus the :18 1/5 submitted by Kingsbarns in the La Derby. Given the slightly shorter distance of the UAE Derby, that :17 4/5 would be adjusted to :18...so that was a very fast final 3/16ths. We do know this horse is loaded with stamina having won twice before at 9 furlongs and the 9.5 furlongs of the UAE Derby. His breeding shouts stamina. He owns a very fluid stride which makes him tactical as he can win on the lead or sitting off the pace. He fits the Kentucky Derby winning profile quite well.









Practical Move:
The coming out party for this colt was the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in which he ran his lifetime top and did so via an excellent running line
He was given time and then
came back to win a very tough edition of the San Felipe Stakes coupling a BRIS Late
Pace figure of 107 with a Speed Rating figure of 102. His Santa Anita Derby win was aided by a clean rail trip and when he was collared by both Mandarin Hero and 95 Skinner he found another gear and fought on valiantly for the nose win.
His running line coming
out of that Santa Anita Derby is still quite impressive as he moved early into the fastest part of the race using up some valuable energy but kept on showing more in the tank.
He’ll be forwardly placed into the moderate Derby pace which will be an advantage.









Skinner:
This stamina-rich colt sired by Curlin has paired two strong prep races showing
forward movement in each of his last 3 starts. Form cycle analysis is signaling another forward move here of at least two points.
Thanks to his strong turn of foot, he was able to finish 3rd into less-than-ideal pace set ups and he is closing the gap on
Practical Move who defeated him in his last two races, but with more ground here he may just turn the tables on that foe who may have some distance questions to answer
His score of 96% tops all other long shots in this field. Those double 100+ Late Pace
figures, foundation, form progression, pace/speed figure configurations plus many other criteria are all green.
 
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In the last 31 years, 27 cashable winners came into the Derby with a best Beyer of at least 95. Similarly, 18 of the last 23 had a top Brisnet rating of 100 or more. Fourteen of the last 19 had a TimeformUS figure of at least 115 in their last three preps. Cashable means these lists include Medina Spirit, because bets were paid off for his first-place finish before the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission reversed the outcome nine months later for a failed drug test.

That means only six of the top 30 horses in Derby qualifying meet all the criteria, namely Forte, Practical Move, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Verifying and, on the outside for now, Mandarin Hero.

Fractions & figures
FFT
Beyer
Bris
TFUS
Forte
1f 3f
100
103
118
Practical Move
1f 3f
100
105
121
Angel of Empire
1f 3f
94​
101
117
Tapit Trice
1f 3f
99
102
115
Two Phil’s
1f 3f
101
107
121
Lord Miles
1f 3f
93​
99​
109​
Derma Sotogake
1f 3f
109​
Kingsbarns
1f 3f
95
98​
109​
Raise Cain
1f 3f
90​
94​
111​
Rocket Can
1f 3f
91​
98​
114​
Hit Show
1f 3f
93​
99​
116
Confidence Game
1f 3f
94​
95​
117
Verifying
1f 3f
99
102
115
Sun Thunder
1f 3f
89​
96​
108​
Wild On Ice
77​
96​
96​
Mage
3f
94​
101
114​
Blazing Sevens
1f
93​
95​
110​
Reincarnate
1f
95
98​
115
Jace’s Road
1f 3f
90​
96​
101​
Continuar
90​
Skinner
1f 3f
99
99​
120​
Cyclone Mischief
91​
99​
114​
Major Dude
91​
101
116
Mandarin Hero
1f 3f
100
100
121
King Russell
1f 3f
87​
96​
112​
Disarm
1f 3f
90​
94​
104​
Arctic Arrogance
89​
99​
114​
Red Route One
1f 3f
92​
95​
113​
Instant Coffee
1f 3f
92​
96​
108​
Funtastic Again
87​
98​
115
Best Beyer from DRF.
Best Bris from Twin Spires.
TFUS: Last 3 TimeformUS.
 
I'm thinking Forte will be the favorite around or 4-1? I'm seeing he's +270 at a few books. But I can't see him 5-2 on Derby day.

I'm also wondering if we see the Mine That Bird effect. The year after his win Derby the fave was over 6-1 and no one was over 30-1. Do we see similar with Rich Strike from last year?
 
I'm thinking Forte will be the favorite around or 4-1? I'm seeing he's +270 at a few books. But I can't see him 5-2 on Derby day.

I'm also wondering if we see the Mine That Bird effect. The year after his win Derby the fave was over 6-1 and no one was over 30-1. Do we see similar with Rich Strike from last year?
I see Forte at 7/2 or 3/1 then Tapit Trice as the second choice
Of course there will be a “wise guys” horse
 
When I click on the link sadly it doesn't work, said something about error. Sorry I didn't write the error message down.
 
I've used Thorograph previously but have noticed they run very streaky. They were $1 more with the drf advance PP's. I'm not going to miss a dollar, not to mention the ability to look at more information.
 
Initial thought is Dema Sotogake will be the one to catch, Verifying will be in a prime stalking spot and Tapit Trice is going to come from the clouds and will need a heckuva good trip to catch them.

Oaks looks wide open with about half the field sporting similar numbers.
 
Initial thought is Dema Sotogake will be the one to catch, Verifying will be in a prime stalking spot and Tapit Trice is going to come from the clouds and will need a heckuva good trip to catch them.

Oaks looks wide open with about half the field sporting similar numbers.
right now Oaks weather looks like rain
Derby Day should be clearing by mid-day



Of course my final decision won’t be made until the post positions are drawn on Monday
If Derma Sotogake and Skinner both draw well then these will be my two key horses
 
Frank Sumpter’s Sunland Derby winner Wild On Ice will miss the KentuckyDerby due to a left hind leg injury that occurred following workout just before 6 a.m. on Thursday.



Santa Anita Derby third SKINNER is now in field
 
Skinner getting in is pretty significant imo. I think that horse will improve at CD.
 
Frank Sumpter’s Sunland Derby winner Wild On Ice will miss the KentuckyDerby due to a left hind leg injury that occurred following workout just before 6 a.m. on Thursday.



Santa Anita Derby third SKINNER is now in field
He will miss the Derby and everything else as he is no longer living. RIP.
 
A few Derby Trends:





Between 2014 and 2021, seven out of eight Kentucky Derby winners prevailed by setting or tracking the pace from no farther back than third place







Horses who have shown the ability to finish fast at the end of a 1 1/8-mile or 1 3/16-mile route race have the best chance to handle the Kentucky Derby’s testing 1 1/4-mile distance. When analyzing Derby contenders, look for horses who sprinted the final three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race in :38 seconds or less
The data is strong: 19 of the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners successfully shaded the :38 mark in their final prep race




Derby contenders who finished their final prep in :38 seconds or less:
Kingsbarns
Angel of Empire
Two Phil’s
Mandarin Hero
King Russell
Skinner
Tapit Trice
Derma Sotogake
Practical Move
Jace’s Road
Verifying
Major Dude
Reincarnate
Forte
Rocket Can
Lord Miles
Disarm also came home in under :38 seconds in the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, but that race took place over 1 1/16 miles, and I have projected his finishing time would have been slower than :38 seconds







Horses based in California have outperformed all others in recent renewals of the Kentucky Derby
7 of the last 11 horses who crossed the finish line first in the Derby
Medina Spirit
Authentic
Justify
Nyquist
American Pharoah
California Chrome
I’ll Have Another






Since 1882, only one horse 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old








In 1957, Iron Liege finished fifth in the Derby Trial Stakes, then rebounded to an $18.80 upset in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, all but one Kentucky Derby winner has finished fourth or better in their last prep race, suggesting horses in poor form a few weeks out from the Derby are unlikely to bounce back in the most important race of their lives








Since 1983, a span of 40 years, only one horse born in January has won the Kentucky Derby, that being Grindstone back in 1996
February 11 winners
March 14 winners
 
All the bullshit comes to a head this afternoon
At 2PM EST they will draw the post positions for the Oaks and the Derby



Oaks day (Fri) looks to be wet
Derby Day should be drying out
 
1. HIT SHOW (Cox/Franco) 30-1
2. VERIFYING (Cox/Gaffalione) 15-1
3. TWO PHIL'S (Rivelli/Loveberry) 12-1
4. CONFIDENCE GAME (Desormeaux/Graham) 20-1
5. TAPIT TRICE (Pletcher/Saez) 5-1
6. KINGSBARNS (Pletcher/J. Ortiz) 12-1
7. REINCARNATE (Yakteen/J. Velazquez) 50-1
8. MAGE (Delgado/Castellano) 15-1
9. SKINNER (Shirreffs/J. Hernandez) 20-1
10. PRACTICAL MOVE (Yakteen/R. Vasquez) 10-1

11. DISARM (Asmussen/Rosario) 30-1
12. JACE'S ROAD (Cox/Geroux) 15-1
13. SUN THUNDER (McPeek/B. Hernandez Jr.) 50-1
14. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (Cox/Prat) 8-1
15. FORTE (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)[/b] 3-1
16. RAISE CAIN (Colebrook/Corrales) 50-1
17. DERMA SOTOGAKE (Otonashi/Lemaire) 10-1
18. ROCKET CAN (Mott/Alvarado) 30-1
19. LORD MILES (Joseph/P. Lopez) 30-1
20. CONTINUAR Otonashi/Lemaire) 50-1
--------------------------------------------
AE 21. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/Rosario) 30-1
AE 22. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura) 20-1
AE 23. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano) 50-1
 
The Ladies....

1. MIMI KAKUSHI (bin Ghayer/Barzalona) 20-1
2. THE AYS LOOK (Cox/Castellano) 15-1
3. GAMBLING GIRL (Pletcher/I. Ortiz) 15-1
4. SOUTHLAWN (N. Casse/Gutierrez) 8-1
5. WONDER WHEEL (M. Casse/Rosario) 12-1
6. BOTANICAL (Cox/Landeros) 4-1
7. WET PAINT (Cox/Prat) 5-2
8. PROMISEHER AMERICA (Handel/Vargas Jr.) 30-1
9. AND TELL ME NOLIES (Miller/R. Vasquez) 15-1
10. FLYING CONNECTION (Fincher/Geroux) 15-1
11. DEFINING PURPOSE (McPeek/Hernandez Jr.) 12-1
12. DORTH VADER (Yates/Saez) 20-1
13. AFFIRMATIVE LADY (Motion/J. Velazquez) 10-1
14. PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (Walsh/Gaffalione) 10-1 ~ Blinker On
---------------------------------
AE 15. Taxed (Randy Morse) 20-1
AE 16. Julia Shining (Todd Pletcher) 15-1
AE 17. Hoosier Philly (Tom Amoss) 30-1
 
If both Japanese horses (17 & 20) stay in then one will need a new rider. And if one of them scratches out then either Disarm or Cyclone Mischief will need a new rider.

Missing from both days is Money Mike Smith.
 
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Well the posts have been drawn & I’ll wait until Thursday to make my final decision due to the amount of rain they get on Friday
It does look like a fast track come post time for the Derby

Oaks will be muddy to sloppy…
 
It’s D-Day for me & that means I’ll have my Derby key horse by mid-afternoon
I’ll also have a saver



One thing for sure is Forte won’t be on top
Here’s why:

his last race he went backwards
most 3yos are improving there numbers
also TAP crushes the winter meet at GP
Of all his Derby starters only one has run a top figure
Forte hasn’t run faster since October and I’m looking all over for a Forte finishes off the board prop
 
Look forward to everyone's thoughts on the Derby, and in particular the Japanese horses. I've been trying to look at 17 Derma Sotogake in particular and was impressed with Dam/Sire AWD numbers leading me to believe he could be a factor at this distance.
 
Look forward to everyone's thoughts on the Derby, and in particular the Japanese horses. I've been trying to look at 17 Derma Sotogake in particular and was impressed with Dam/Sire AWD numbers leading me to believe he could be a factor at this distance.
Same for me. I have no expertise what so ever in this arena but I will say I commonly get suckered into a Japanese horse that is "different" than all the ones before it and it hasn't worked out so far.

That doesn't mean I won't do it again as I'm intrigued by 17 as well...lol
 
My top pick is going to be Derma Sotogake. I use the following logic:

1) US crop is weaker than usual. The morning line favorite Forte is considered vulnerable mainly because the FL Derby came up light and he hasn't improved upon his 2YO figs.
2) Japanese trained horses have been making breakthroughs in major US racing. Two horses from Japan won Breeders Cup races in 2021. Last year in the Derby it was the Japanese horse Crown Pride that was involved in the suicidal early pace. The trainers in Japan are learning quickly about what it takes to win the major US races. Reports on Derma Sotogake are that he's being trained for distance.
3) DS has a top 3 Thorograph number from his UAE Derby win and his final fraction times also qualify him. He's got 3 nine furlong plus races under his belt and won them all, usually from on or near the lead. At post 17 he's outside all the early speed horses so he can be fit in tactically wherever needed, or he can assume the lead if the fractions are tepid. So to me he has multiple ways he can win and do so by avoiding traffic headaches.

Backup choices are Practical Joke and Tapit Trice. Like Lefty I'll be including Forte on underneath slots based on historical success of post time favorites landing in the top 4 on fast tracks.
 
It’s go time…

my key horse is
3-Two Phils $80WP
saver:
18-Rocket Can $40WP
$20 exacta key box: 3/5,8,9,14,15,17,18
$10 straight exacta: 18/3,5,8,9,14,15,17


$4 triple:
3/5,8,9,14,15,17,18/5,8,9,14,15,17,18
$168

$2 triple: 18/3,5,8,9,14,15,17/3,5,8,9,14,15,17
$84



$1 super:
3/5,8,9,14,15,17,18/5,8,8,14,15,17,18/5,8,9,14,15,1718
$210




$1 super
18/3,5,8,9,14,15,17,18/3,5,8,9,14,15,17,18/3,5,8,9,14,15,17,18
$210





$50 Oaks Derby Daily Double:
4,6/3,18
 
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The more I look at Two Phils races, the more impressed.

I just don't know if he can go 1 and 1/4. But man he has a turn of foot that don't know if anyone else has in the race. If they can wait a bit longer to make his move? I think I like him a bit better for the Preakness. But I'm gonna dabble a bit on him.

Tapit Trice looks like the Belmont winner to me. I think he needs the perfect trip. I don't think he gets there with any kind of adversity.

Forte I'll be against. I thought Mage was the better horse in the Fla Derby. I like Mage but I don't his gate antics will allow him any part on Saturday. Seems like the wise guy horse that will run about 15th.
 
First look today after post positions and I'm right there with you with Two Phils, lets get him home

GL this weekend!
 
The more I look at Two Phils races, the more impressed.

I just don't know if he can go 1 and 1/4. But man he has a turn of foot that don't know if anyone else has in the race. If they can wait a bit longer to make his move? I think I like him a bit better for the Preakness. But I'm gonna dabble a bit on him.

Tapit Trice looks like the Belmont winner to me. I think he needs the perfect trip. I don't think he gets there with any kind of adversity.

Forte I'll be against. I thought Mage was the better horse in the Fla Derby. I like Mage but I don't his gate antics will allow him any part on Saturday. Seems like the wise guy horse that will run about 15th.
Only thing that concerns me about Two Phils is Jareth Loveberry
He might freeze in the moment…
 
Only thing that concerns me about Two Phils is Jareth Loveberry
He might freeze in the moment…
I'd be more concerned if he needs to break for the lead but that won't be the case, should settle down nicely for a later move imo

It's always at least a little concern though
 
Guys we put a little syndicate together out at my golf club. $100 share and we got $2100 to work with. We had a handicapping session today and forged ahead with our strategy and money management. It was an interesting process and obviously tougher with the committee approach but we did a pretty good job I think of staying on point and still listening to everyone. Anyway who gives a fuck, we have some action and I think the folks loved it overall. Our plays fwiw...

Syndicate Tickets

Derby $1 Superfecta Box on 3.5.6.14.15.17 $360
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 2,3,5,6,14,15 $360
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5,9.11.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1,5,8,15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 4.5.15.19 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5.14.15.17 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1.4.5,15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1.2.5.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5,15,17,19 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 2.5.9.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 4.5.11.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 2.5.15.17 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5,8,15,19 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1,5,11,15 $24

Derby $2 Triple Box 3,5,6,14,15,17 $240
Derby $1 Triple Box 5.9.11.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 1.5.8.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 4,5,14,19 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 1,4,5,14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 1,2.5.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 5.14.17.19 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 2,5,9,14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 4.5.11.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 2.5.14.17 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 5,8,14,19 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box1,5,11,14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 5.14.17.19 $24

Derby $2 Exacta Wheel 3.6.14.17 $304

Oaks/Derby $12 Double 4,6.7/3,5,6,14,15,17 $216

Derby Win Ticket 11 $44
 
Guys we put a little syndicate together out at my golf club. $100 share and we got $2100 to work with. We had a handicapping session today and forged ahead with our strategy and money management. It was an interesting process and obviously tougher with the committee approach but we did a pretty good job I think of staying on point and still listening to everyone. Anyway who gives a fuck, we have some action and I think the folks loved it overall. Our plays fwiw...

Syndicate Tickets

Derby $1 Superfecta Box on 3.5.6.14.15.17 $360
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 2,3,5,6,14,15 $360
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5,9.11.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1,5,8,15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 4.5.15.19 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5.14.15.17 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1.4.5,15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1.2.5.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5,15,17,19 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 2.5.9.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 4.5.11.15 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 2.5.15.17 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 5,8,15,19 $24
Derby $1 Superfecta Box 1,5,11,15 $24

Derby $2 Triple Box 3,5,6,14,15,17 $240
Derby $1 Triple Box 5.9.11.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 1.5.8.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 4,5,14,19 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 1,4,5,14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 1,2.5.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 5.14.17.19 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 2,5,9,14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 4.5.11.14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 2.5.14.17 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 5,8,14,19 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box1,5,11,14 $24
Derby $1 Triple Box 5.14.17.19 $24

Derby $2 Exacta Wheel 3.6.14.17 $304

Oaks/Derby $12 Double 4,6.7/3,5,6,14,15,17 $216

Derby Win Ticket 11 $44
Go get that money Tim…
 
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