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D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Somebody used to do something like this awhile back, I think they had slightly higher ambitions than 5k but that is really all I want for the year.

The concept is simple; Start with $100 and wager on heavy favorites on the ML, picking up a few bucks at a time. Then you roll the full balance over onto the next one. It usually does lose eventually, but its fun. Every now and then you have to throw in a -250 to -300 favorite, but usually this process only bets on favorites of more than this.

I started this thread to track this and to get input. I am going to do this over the course of the season and Id love to hear opinions on games where you really can't see the favorite losing.

Now I am not talking about Bama ML against Duke, my book doesn't even offer that. But I am looking for plays in the -400 to -1400 range that seem like safe bets

First up:

Bowling Green/Central Michigan parlay $100.5 to win $13.43
 

brewers888

Chicken Little
I’ve tried this a couple of times but always get distracted and never follow through. Might as well try it out again.
 

number2

Well-Known Member
I was thinking of doing something similar.

I wanted to parlay all the top 5 or top 10 teams in the weekly rankings on their money lines. If they play each other, just cancel them out. Instead of rolling over, just playing 100 each week. This way, wanted to see how much profit I will make until I loose the $100.

Since Florida won already and they rank #8, I’ll might just do the top 5 this week. Thanks for reminding me.
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
I thought your starting bankroll was $100? Your first wager is for $100.50.

Cool concept but I wouldn't have the stones to lay that kind of scratch for such a little return.

And don't forget how many big upsets happen in week one.

Good luck man, curious to see how it goes.
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I thought your starting bankroll was $100? Your first wager is for $100.50.

Cool concept but I wouldn't have the stones to lay that kind of scratch for such a little return.

And don't forget how many big upsets happen in week one.

Good luck man, curious to see how it goes.

so I actually started this with 50 bucks a few weeks ago betting big tennis favs. my last one that hit brought my total to $100.5, so that is the explanation of the extra 50 cents


To be honest this is all house money. Really cool thing that I did in PA. A handful of books opened up in Pennsylvania where your first bet, up to $250, they will refund if you lose, match if you win. So my wife and I created accounts at every book that offered this deal and bet the opposite side of each game. We then both withdrew the money immediately and put it in our vacation fund.

So to clarify, we would each deposit $250, bet on the opposite side (we always did baseball over/unders that had a half point line) and one of us would lose and get refunded the $250. The other would win and be up plus the site matched the won amount.

The one site we did it on, the bet I won was like -113 or something, so the amount I won totaled like $221.75ish, so when all was said and done my account had $693.5 in it.

I withdrew $650 for our vacation fund and left $43.50 to mess around with. A little tennis betting, now its $100.50. And that is my roll for this experiment
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I guess all those ppl who take advantage of credit card bonuses & points & sign up for cards just to get free trips and flights are also due bad karma then right?
 

pb278817

Well-Known Member
Tried this last year, started with 100 too. Think I got as high as $1400. Was betting badminton, pool, volleyball, ping pong etc. Anything with a big fav and whatever match or game was closest to getting started. Fun times but when that ~$1400 lost to win less than $50 lost. Felt like an idiot. Best of luck though!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
I guess all those ppl who take advantage of credit card bonuses & points & sign up for cards just to get free trips and flights are also due bad karma then right?

Karma not real anyways but implying you did something wrong or immoral is fuckin asinine!!!

Hope you get to 5k on their dime bro!!
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Only bad thing in this thread is this bs post.

Right? Like yes Karma absolutely does not exist, but even if it did it would go after somebody who took advantage of a promotion that was specifically made to trap ppl into depositing money, knowing full well most people will lose and/or deposit more
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Right? Like yes Karma absolutely does not exist, but even if it did it would go after somebody who took advantage of a promotion that was specifically made to trap ppl into depositing money, knowing full well most people will lose and/or deposit more

Can’t think of anything more evil than taking advantage of poor book who makes millions off of degenerates! You sir are the scum of scum, the worst!! LOL.

My 2 cents: fukk them. Also really wish I could get in on this!!
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Definitely can see the difference of opinion on this approach. Kind of stupid for the books to allow the cash out on the refund without rolling it over, but props to finding a way to take advantage of something within the rules.

Good luck D.

it immoral not to take advantage of such a fabulous opportunity imo. Even if it is against those wonderful souls who always treat us players fairly while looking out for our best interest!!!
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I’m not even taking advantage. I’m doing things well within the rules the way they were meant to be done. They just expect people who deposit money to be degenerates
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
I’m not even taking advantage. I’m doing things well within the rules the way they were meant to be done. They just expect people who deposit money to be degenerates

I don’t care if you were working every angle possible,, they do. IT pretty awesome no rollovers w those.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
Sports books, businesses, governments always trying to get over on us and bleed us for everything they can. I have no issue with what y'all did. Good luck.
 

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
so I actually started this with 50 bucks a few weeks ago betting big tennis favs. my last one that hit brought my total to $100.5, so that is the explanation of the extra 50 cents


To be honest this is all house money. Really cool thing that I did in PA. A handful of books opened up in Pennsylvania where your first bet, up to $250, they will refund if you lose, match if you win. So my wife and I created accounts at every book that offered this deal and bet the opposite side of each game. We then both withdrew the money immediately and put it in our vacation fund.

So to clarify, we would each deposit $250, bet on the opposite side (we always did baseball over/unders that had a half point line) and one of us would lose and get refunded the $250. The other would win and be up plus the site matched the won amount.

The one site we did it on, the bet I won was like -113 or something, so the amount I won totaled like $221.75ish, so when all was said and done my account had $693.5 in it.

I withdrew $650 for our vacation fund and left $43.50 to mess around with. A little tennis betting, now its $100.50. And that is my roll for this experiment

I remember telling you that there was no chance you could try something like this because of the rollover requirement most places have (when you first mentioned it), but I was dead wrong. As amazing as it is, the PA books only had a 1x rollover requirement...that is a right to print money for outside-the-box thinkers.

If you're playing within their rules, fuck 'em in the ear...good work, @D-Woww

In the end, all that matters is whether we win or we lose...
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
You guys know the score. Not one of us who been around the block hasn’t had several ignorant rules or made up fine print cheat us out of well deserved W. It their job to take our money, it ours to take theirs by any means allowed.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Betting money line favorites is one of the soundest bets in football if you put the work in.

I have a post on here a few years back that provides the math behind it, but basically if you stick to ML favorites in certain ranges--the study was 20-25 point favorites, as I recall--they win, win year after year, at a 95% rate.

You should, if you just do standard handicapping of games, end of with a yearly return of 12% to 15.5% of the money you risk. An amazing return in just three months, better than almost any investment you will find.

I found the averages are just as good in the 14x to 24 point range (I think that's what I used, I'm too lazy to dig through the archives, but it's on here somewhere) and I didn't have to put up as much money on lots of them.

During the four years I did it I went 56-0 (you can find all those bets somewhere in the archives) and won a far better than 15% return.

I didn't expect to win every bet, but I knew I was going to hit more than 90%. I think a good handicapper who puts in the work should be 100% or very close to it year after year. I had to risk a lot of money on some of those bets, but I won small fortune.

I'd still do it if I could find a place that would let me do it, but a big multi-national gaming firm bought the book where I placed all those bets and when I won the first ML favorite bet last year they shut me down and won't let me bet ML favorites at all.

I've never understood why almost all bettors like ML dogs so much when the percentages are better with ML favorites.

So you have a sound strategy, D-Woww. You'll win if you keep your discipline.
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
i've said this before, but i think it's worth repeating.

Cheating, scamming, or taking advantage of sportsbooks or casinos is not immoral. The rules are so stacked against players, that whatever edge you can find is perfectly fine to take advantage of. Fuck em.

This! Anytime I see a bad line posted, whether it's a live between period hockey line or they haven't updated a series price, I take full advantage. They have no quams about charging a 15% deposit fee on CC, they can lick the southside of my fucking ball bag.
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
@Zeke I think it takes discipline and picking spots...maybe not picking spots but knowing what spots to avoid. I'll admit, so far here, these teams im betting; cmu, army, Rutgers...nto exactly powerhouses. down the road I am going to shy away from shitty programs like that. I agree with your whole post though, I think there are plenty of times when the underdog just has no chance
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
@D-Woww

I think some dude did this but put it in some subforum. Can't remember. Think he got up to about 3500 then lost. A few guys have done a thread on it since. It's fun to follow. GL bro.
 

Jayhawk Nation

Voice of Reason
I’ve tried it multiple times. I rarely lost but similar to what someone said above every time I made it into the 1-2 thousand range I couldn’t stomach risking it for 50-100 return so just quit. Can’t imagine how it would feel at the 5 figure range like the other post was about.

At some point you have to weigh risk/reward. Playing with house money up to a grand is fine when the reward is still proportionate. But as you get higher it just makes no sense. You are better off from a mathematical perspective just taking your winnings and starting again.
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I’ve tried it multiple times. I rarely lost but similar to what someone said above every time I made it into the 1-2 thousand range I couldn’t stomach risking it for 50-100 return so just quit. Can’t imagine how it would feel at the 5 figure range like the other post was about.

At some point you have to weigh risk/reward. Playing with house money up to a grand is fine when the reward is still proportionate. But as you get higher it just makes no sense. You are better off from a mathematical perspective just taking your winnings and starting again.

Absolutely. If I get to a certain point I will likely stop wagering all on one play. Hadn’t thought that far ahead, gotta win a few first!
 

dopples

Banned
im not saying it's immoral at all, im saying i have bad luck when i take advantage of bonus loopholes. always end up losing when doing that. agree the books are ruthless and get +110 on our bets.
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I actually did Georgia last night but was too drunk yo post lol


Do u guys think oklahoma is a safe enough bet for this?
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
This! Anytime I see a bad line posted, whether it's a live between period hockey line or they haven't updated a series price, I take full advantage. They have no quams about charging a 15% deposit fee on CC, they can lick the southside of my fucking ball bag.

Only reason I don’t bet into bad lines is cause it gives them a opportunity to free roll us, learned my lesson there. Lol. Obviously agree w premise tho!
 

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
mr. d-w. I find this thread very interesting. For many years I have been betting ML parlays using heavy favorites . I have been risking my standard amount, so the parlay is usually 10-12 teams, and there needs to be one maybe two where a possible loss is a potential risk. However, this technique usually results in a modest winning one ( off to a bad start yesterday thanks to Georgia State’s win over Tennessee)
This year I thought of doing things a bit differently and upping my risk amount and parlaying the return. I haven’t done it yet , but this thread renews my interest. I find the post by mr tahoe of particular interest.

Let me add this variation . In focusing on guaranteed (in quotes ) winners, you could also use this strategy by focusing on losers. New Mex St, utep, umass, Rutgers , Oregon st are a few that pop into my head.

Anyway, I’m happy you posted this thread. Let’s see what we can do with it.
I noticed that Illinois was one of your plays. Mine too, at the spread.
Keep fading Akron
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Dan, just remember.. You don't HAVE to do this everyday. Oklahoma shouldn't lose though.

very good advice; I stayed away from ND bc it felt unseasy and yeah they won, but it was dicey for a half. Tennesee is a perfect example of a team that I actively did not include in this though; I don't even know hwo to explain it, they just feel like a team that could lose to a huge dog.

Gonna start going over week 2 in a minute. Also debating if I wanna include some NFL action...Seattle can't lose to Cincy in Seattle right?
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Michigan
Ohio St
App St
Illinois
FSU
Oregon
Auburn
Washington

They seem to be playable here; do we see any of these teams having a shot at losing?
 

CryptoWhale

Well-Known Member
very good advice; I stayed away from ND bc it felt unseasy and yeah they won, but it was dicey for a half. Tennesee is a perfect example of a team that I actively did not include in this though; I don't even know hwo to explain it, they just feel like a team that could lose to a huge dog.

Gonna start going over week 2 in a minute. Also debating if I wanna include some NFL action...Seattle can't lose to Cincy in Seattle right?

Bengals going to have some issues on offense with Green on the sideline. Not to mention, Dalton sucks.
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Bengals going to have some issues on offense with Green on the sideline. Not to mention, Dalton sucks.

strongly looking into playing this one to cap off the weekend. If Andy Dalton is gonna go into Seattle without AJ Green and beat Seattle who has a strong home field advantage and they'll have Clowney in uniform and the place going nuts, then ill take the L
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
The team I won on more than any other during my 56-0 streak was Michigan State. They showed why against Tulsa.

I found a way around the book shutting me down--had my secretary place the bet--on ML favorites and won a nice bet on them that was never in doubt.

They always have a great defense--first in the country in 2018 and held Tulsa to minus 73 yards rushing for the game--they can stop the run against almost anyone, they play hard and they are tough. They get ahead and Dantonio likes to shorten the game.

With ML favorites I like to be on the toughest team and the best defense. If they have a great kicker so much the better.

The last four years the Spartans are 17-0 when favored by double digits. 18-0 after the Tulsa game. I can only think of one game during that time they was even a question they would win.

I've never played an NFL ML favorite because I like the spread to be double digits and I like the team I'm betting on to be tougher, and all NFL teams are tough.
 
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