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Your strategies for success

HUNT

CTG Partner
Give me some of your old and most tried rules you live by in the gambling world.
 

Alan Tongue

Well-Known Member
percentages are too high. Why bet into 110-112% live lines when you can get 102% pre-game. People talk about price shopping pre-game, but willingly bet into high percentage markets live

I won't ramble on about time delays or limits. Books are pushing people into live betting for a reason

The aim of live betting is to turn the market into slot machines - just keep hitting the button.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
percentages are too high. Why bet into 110-112% live lines when you can get 102% pre-game. People talk about price shopping pre-game, but willingly bet into high percentage markets live

I won't ramble on about time delays or limits. Books are pushing people into live betting for a reason

The aim of live betting is to turn the market into slot machines - just keep hitting the button.
I get all those points and agree for the majority of people.

If I owned a book I would entice live betting as well.

Now, on specialized markets and whatnot you can find some great value still imo, albeit at a higher tariff.

Now, I look at my personal aspects different. Live betting football is basically not a profit maker for me. Live betting baseball sparingly has netted me positive gains the last two years (very small sample size). Live betting NBA totals and trading ML's has netted profit for me since I started 2.5 years ago. I feel I have an advantage there though (again, I know the prices I may have to bet into as well).
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I love the discussion A.T. and you have the knowledge of this stuff as good as anyone I know so keep bringing it. I've definitely learned many things over the years reading your posts.
 

Alan Tongue

Well-Known Member
live betting isn't quite efficient yet. The live models are still updating. In the NBA, for example, the book might have a dozen years of data to price against. It might sound like a lot of games, but its not. The models have been focused on Team A was -150 pre-game, they lead by 6 halfway through the 2nd quarterr, so they should be -250. It's just data points.

Pre-game modelling in the last decade has gone very player specific. Every player is valued. Previously, if KD was out you'd just drop the limits, move the line 5 points and let the market decide where it should be. Now we know he is worth 6.5 points (just a guess, I don't touch NBA). This method hasn't really been used in live betting, apart from cricket and baseball. Now that they have this data for the pre-game they will factor it into the live prices. It will probably take another couple of years
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
live betting isn't quite efficient yet. The live models are still updating. In the NBA, for example, the book might have a dozen years of data to price against. It might sound like a lot of games, but its not. The models have been focused on Team A was -150 pre-game, they lead by 6 halfway through the 2nd quarterr, so they should be -250. It's just data points.

Pre-game modelling in the last decade has gone very player specific. Every player is valued. Previously, if KD was out you'd just drop the limits, move the line 5 points and let the market decide where it should be. Now we know he is worth 6.5 points (just a guess, I don't touch NBA). This method hasn't really been used in live betting, apart from cricket and baseball. Now that they have this data for the pre-game they will factor it into the live prices. It will probably take another couple of years

Which is exactly why you should bet live in the nba. The market value has not caught up. You are on the driver's seat.

The juice is different for sure. Most lines you can get - 110-125 if you're quick.

Also bet 365 is not on a delay. Use this screen at all times. It's as close to TV as you're gonna get with no players to see. There are other websites you can use for the stats of the game like sofascore.

Personally, if I see a line that I know is way off the pregame market and what most of the public is on I'm going hard against it.

People love overs. The whole world does. What's the fun of an under? You can can some amazing numbers if you're patient.
 

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Ya bet four baseball games in the last three months. Been it. Haven't done any prep for cfb. All washed up.
 

Alan Tongue

Well-Known Member
Which is exactly why you should bet live in the nba. The market value has not caught up. You are on the driver's seat.

The juice is different for sure. Most lines you can get - 110-125 if you're quick.

Also bet 365 is not on a delay. Use this screen at all times. It's as close to TV as you're gonna get with no players to see. There are other websites you can use for the stats of the game like sofascore.

Personally, if I see a line that I know is way off the pregame market and what most of the public is on I'm going hard against it.

People love overs. The whole world does. What's the fun of an under? You can can some amazing numbers if you're patient.

If I could I would, but im not up to the effort of developing a live NBA model.

B365 are in delay. They use a program called Cobain, by a company called Perform. It is essentially the local tv feed being fed into this program. Apart from being there our best live customers traded off the radio.

I find that a lot of games revert back to their pregame mark. So if an NBA total was low, but it was a high scoring first half the second half will be low
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
If I could I would, but im not up to the effort of developing a live NBA model.

B365 are in delay. They use a program called Cobain, by a company called Perform. It is essentially the local tv feed being fed into this program. Apart from being there our best live customers traded off the radio.

I find that a lot of games revert back to their pregame mark. So if an NBA total was low, but it was a high scoring first half the second half will be low

Didn't know that but makes sense about 365. You seem to be a math guy. I can see you figuring out nba.
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
One thing with live betting and tennis.... When watching a match, I've seen a player with a lead, and whether it is injury/stamina wavering/momentum visibly turning, I've acted on it, and got some serious payouts. I don't do it often at all, but I am very mindful of it.

Biggest recent one is Pliskova vs Serena in Aussie open this year... I can go back and check, but Serena up 5-1 in the 5th, rolls her ankle, and blows match point(s).. pliskova came back and won 7-5.
 

Alan Tongue

Well-Known Member
Two more things

People who have a good season or two don't win long term. They have an edge and think that it will,always work. The market will always catch up with you. What worked 5 years ago does not work today. The longer and better your edge is the more likely others will find it. The game changes also - rule changes, coaching tendencies/ trends, etc. You need to keep finding new edges. It's all about staying ahead of the curve.

For example I made a profit for over 16 straight years on tennis. I was using ELO. Now a large number of people use it (thanks a lot The Social Network), now it is of no use. I've seen people come and I've seen them go

Secondly, and this dove tails off the above, people jump on what is trendy. I'm reading a lot at the moment about how important a catching RB is in the NFL, and also 2 TE sets. Well, if people like us can see that surely the coaching staff know this too. So instead of jumping on this bandwagon wouldn't the best idea be to look at the teams that defend this best? If you can see something don't think you are flying solo.

No matter what we think of ourselves there are many, many people out there much smarter then you and I
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
One comment about live betting- watching a game can tell a different story than the numbers or data don’t account for. Momentum is real, key injuries happen, etc
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
One comment about live betting- watching a game can tell a different story than the numbers or data don’t account for. Momentum is real, key injuries happen, etc
Absolutely.

I will say, that at least in the NBA -- they pull the numbers quicker now than two years ago when an injury happens. You used to be able to grab a number if need be if you were literally right on it.
 

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Line shopping...enormous value in just allowing yourself different options. Going to start a thread on this hopefully later tonight...it's a huge part of my process.
 

pressitup

Proponent of Obamacare
One key to success at the tables is if you can't draw a hand at blackjack, just find a dumbass that won't hit 15 against a ten and sit to their left. You magically pull the small cards you need. Pay them to sit there if they really suck.
 

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Flashscore.com is an absolute go to for me for many years now...mobile version and scoring notifications you can adjust for each sport.

Have a few more go to's I'll have to check out on my laptop when I get home later that I'll try to post in here.
 

Pyppurs

Well-Known Member
I'm familiar with a lot of the popular links. What I like about sofascore is all the links are embed in the main page, unlike flashscore that needs popup. Sometimes I switch between what I prefer.

Above all accuracy with real time info is more important.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
My most important thing is to have fun. Winning is certainly more fun that losing, but if I enjoyed the research and number crunching and selection process and the game loses, then I still had some fun along the way.

I've been where all I cared about was making money and got a little obsessed with it. When slumping obviously that is hard when all I focus on is the money and it makes life really miserable and can erode the love of the sport (assuming one loves the sport and process in the first place).
 

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Two more things

People who have a good season or two don't win long term. They have an edge and think that it will,always work. The market will always catch up with you. What worked 5 years ago does not work today. The longer and better your edge is the more likely others will find it. The game changes also - rule changes, coaching tendencies/ trends, etc. You need to keep finding new edges. It's all about staying ahead of the curve.

For example I made a profit for over 16 straight years on tennis. I was using ELO. Now a large number of people use it (thanks a lot The Social Network), now it is of no use. I've seen people come and I've seen them go

Secondly, and this dove tails off the above, people jump on what is trendy. I'm reading a lot at the moment about how important a catching RB is in the NFL, and also 2 TE sets. Well, if people like us can see that surely the coaching staff know this too. So instead of jumping on this bandwagon wouldn't the best idea be to look at the teams that defend this best? If you can see something don't think you are flying solo.

No matter what we think of ourselves there are many, many people out there much smarter then you and I
Some folks can beat the market for decades
 

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Without question, the most beneficial thing for me has been networking with winners. Sometimes their wins cannot overcome my losses but it sure helps ease the pain. I provided these people with my knowledge and they provided me with theirs. Unlike the forums where consensus plays stink, unless they are a consensus of 1 (ck makes a bet so a bumch of people do the same and post), consensus plays of winners, win.

A big error I have made (i have made all of them pretty much) through the years is betting my number that wasnt a play all week when it becomes a play after opposite side steam. So I did learn to at least be cautious with bet size before losing the bet.

1. Networking
2. Beat the market
3. Take advantage of any and everything the system allows
4. Shop
5. Prepare early
6. Push every edge (this was a big lesson with regard to sports investing. When I started, be selective and bet large on those events was what I learned when in reality it just cost me a lot of money by not being more active. Note the opposite is true if you are a net loser.


Best advice is to not bet .... i do not mean just the 99% of people who lose but even the 1% that win. I know what it takes to win and it isn't worth the work and the rabbit hole is quite deep.

If you are betting, have love in your heart for something about the game ... otherwise it will become a tedious job
 

big_units

Well-Known Member
this is a good thread, and there are good points that have been made.
aside from being forced to use a free play/bonus bet on a pre-game wager, i haven't placed a bet before a game has started for years. 100% of my action is on live betting, and i feel i'm wasting my time otherwise. i do agree that sportsbooks want you to place as many live bets as possible because those lines are juiced even more.
live lines prey on the inexperienced gamblers. for every live bettor that exploits the errors in live betting, there are hundreds that have no idea, and just keep losing. so, the live programs are of course a major cash cow for the sportsbooks.
however, if you are attentive, have several different live platforms open at all times, and make sure that each of your account balances are deep, live betting should be the best money-maker you can imagine. the main reasons are 1) like all things computer-calibrated, there are bugs. and 2) each sportsbook calibrates and shades their live line differently.
i never place a bet unless i have a clear advantage or a sure profit regardless of the outcome. on college football saturday, it happens all the time. on slower sports days, i'll have to wait a while before an advantage presents itself. but if you're patient and have all options in front of you, something will come.
just by having bookmaker, 5crimes, betonline, heritage, bovada, and diamond open simultaneously...if there are a decent amount of games that day, you will find discrepancies that can be exploited with zero risk. once a game starts, you can see how each book is shading their live program with those 2 teams. if one is consistently lower than another, you keep an eye on it. at some point in the game, you will notice one will show something like -150 and the other will show +170. yeah, it's only a 20 cent difference, but if you max bet it (live program maxes range anywhere from $250-$3000 usually) it's an easy $50 each click. in basketball, this happens all the time. in football, it happens a lot. not as much in baseball and hockey, but it still happens. commercials are important because that's when you can get several bets in when the lines show a discrepancy. sometimes you can capture several hundred bucks in pure arbitrage profit within the minute and a half or two minute commercial break.
don't get impatient and make bets on your personal opinions. only bet when it's an undeniable advantage. you want to be indifferent on who wins the game, because no matter what, you'll bank a profit.
the middle opportunities are even more beautiful than the money line fluctuations. just on sunday, during commercial of the aints/chargers game in the 3rd quarter when the game was 17-10, one live program had over 35.5 +131, and another had under 36.5 +111. absolute worst thing that happens is you take home great juice on both sides. what actually happened was the aints scored a touchdown, missed a 2 pt conversion, then kicked a FG to win 19-17. in football, the programs don't factor in a possible 2 point attempt. the lines are made based around the 3's and 7's. even if the rest of my week is slow, that middle already made my week.
another blatant mistake of live football programs is they don't factor in a team that's ahead on the scoreboard bleeding clock. if alabama is a large favorite, and ahead by 14 points with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter with the ball on their own 30 yard line...i bet you can find a line like +14.5 -125. the programs don't understand that bama is just going to run the ball making one snap every 40 seconds, get a couple first downs, and go to the locker room. the only way you get beat here is if the running back breaks a 70-yarder.
there are plenty of people smarter than me, who know the teams better, who know the lines better. but it's all about productivity. i don't care how astute of a bettor someone is...the bottom line is all that matters. sometimes you can make the smartest play possible, and you take it up the ass when the final whistle is blown. i'm not into "smart plays." i'm into sure things. the smartest bettor in the world can't even come close to the unit profitability of this method. and it's all through exploiting live betting. waking up everyday without wasting time looking through matchups, lineups, line moves, etc., and knowing you will make money no matter what--is a great feeling. and the stress it saves you never having your money in the balance depending on a particular team to win a game is invaluable.
live betting, bankroll, several simultaneous accounts, focus, and thoroughness is my advice.
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
this is a good thread, and there are good points that have been made.
aside from being forced to use a free play/bonus bet on a pre-game wager, i haven't placed a bet before a game has started for years. 100% of my action is on live betting, and i feel i'm wasting my time otherwise. i do agree that sportsbooks want you to place as many live bets as possible because those lines are juiced even more.
live lines prey on the inexperienced gamblers. for every live bettor that exploits the errors in live betting, there are hundreds that have no idea, and just keep losing. so, the live programs are of course a major cash cow for the sportsbooks.
however, if you are attentive, have several different live platforms open at all times, and make sure that each of your account balances are deep, live betting should be the best money-maker you can imagine. the main reasons are 1) like all things computer-calibrated, there are bugs. and 2) each sportsbook calibrates and shades their live line differently.
i never place a bet unless i have a clear advantage or a sure profit regardless of the outcome. on college football saturday, it happens all the time. on slower sports days, i'll have to wait a while before an advantage presents itself. but if you're patient and have all options in front of you, something will come.
just by having bookmaker, 5crimes, betonline, heritage, bovada, and diamond open simultaneously...if there are a decent amount of games that day, you will find discrepancies that can be exploited with zero risk. once a game starts, you can see how each book is shading their live program with those 2 teams. if one is consistently lower than another, you keep an eye on it. at some point in the game, you will notice one will show something like -150 and the other will show +170. yeah, it's only a 20 cent difference, but if you max bet it (live program maxes range anywhere from $250-$3000 usually) it's an easy $50 each click. in basketball, this happens all the time. in football, it happens a lot. not as much in baseball and hockey, but it still happens. commercials are important because that's when you can get several bets in when the lines show a discrepancy. sometimes you can capture several hundred bucks in pure arbitrage profit within the minute and a half or two minute commercial break.
don't get impatient and make bets on your personal opinions. only bet when it's an undeniable advantage. you want to be indifferent on who wins the game, because no matter what, you'll bank a profit.
the middle opportunities are even more beautiful than the money line fluctuations. just on sunday, during commercial of the aints/chargers game in the 3rd quarter when the game was 17-10, one live program had over 35.5 +131, and another had under 36.5 +111. absolute worst thing that happens is you take home great juice on both sides. what actually happened was the aints scored a touchdown, missed a 2 pt conversion, then kicked a FG to win 19-17. in football, the programs don't factor in a possible 2 point attempt. the lines are made based around the 3's and 7's. even if the rest of my week is slow, that middle already made my week.
another blatant mistake of live football programs is they don't factor in a team that's ahead on the scoreboard bleeding clock. if alabama is a large favorite, and ahead by 14 points with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter with the ball on their own 30 yard line...i bet you can find a line like +14.5 -125. the programs don't understand that bama is just going to run the ball making one snap every 40 seconds, get a couple first downs, and go to the locker room. the only way you get beat here is if the running back breaks a 70-yarder.
there are plenty of people smarter than me, who know the teams better, who know the lines better. but it's all about productivity. i don't care how astute of a bettor someone is...the bottom line is all that matters. sometimes you can make the smartest play possible, and you take it up the ass when the final whistle is blown. i'm not into "smart plays." i'm into sure things. the smartest bettor in the world can't even come close to the unit profitability of this method. and it's all through exploiting live betting. waking up everyday without wasting time looking through matchups, lineups, line moves, etc., and knowing you will make money no matter what--is a great feeling. and the stress it saves you never having your money in the balance depending on a particular team to win a game is invaluable.
live betting, bankroll, several simultaneous accounts, focus, and thoroughness is my advice.

You're one of the best live bettors out there bro. Knowledge is power.
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
Without question, the most beneficial thing for me has been networking with winners. Sometimes their wins cannot overcome my losses but it sure helps ease the pain. I provided these people with my knowledge and they provided me with theirs. Unlike the forums where consensus plays stink, unless they are a consensus of 1 (ck makes a bet so a bumch of people do the same and post), consensus plays of winners, win.

A big error I have made (i have made all of them pretty much) through the years is betting my number that wasnt a play all week when it becomes a play after opposite side steam. So I did learn to at least be cautious with bet size before losing the bet.

1. Networking
2. Beat the market
3. Take advantage of any and everything the system allows
4. Shop
5. Prepare early
6. Push every edge (this was a big lesson with regard to sports investing. When I started, be selective and bet large on those events was what I learned when in reality it just cost me a lot of money by not being more active. Note the opposite is true if you are a net loser.


Best advice is to not bet .... i do not mean just the 99% of people who lose but even the 1% that win. I know what it takes to win and it isn't worth the work and the rabbit hole is quite deep.

If you are betting, have love in your heart for something about the game ... otherwise it will become a tedious job

Vk, I feel like we are always learning. You're so right though, if you don't have it in your heart then it's not profitable or fun anymore.

People struggle with... Do you want to win or do you want the action? I personally think they go hand in hand.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
This is what I believe.

If you ask the universe for signs they will deliver signs to you.

If you pay attention and surrender yourself to the universe you will receive signs for the winning team.

Believe it or not. But I have the $$$$ and the proof in pics to illustrate my approach is working.

I believe that these games results are already known in the multiverse. Can’t be sure but this is what my winnings are telling me.
The messages I’m receiving are just too crazy to believe.
But $$$ never lies.
 
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