Give me some of your old and most tried rules you live by in the gambling world.
I get all those points and agree for the majority of people.percentages are too high. Why bet into 110-112% live lines when you can get 102% pre-game. People talk about price shopping pre-game, but willingly bet into high percentage markets live
I won't ramble on about time delays or limits. Books are pushing people into live betting for a reason
The aim of live betting is to turn the market into slot machines - just keep hitting the button.
live betting isn't quite efficient yet. The live models are still updating. In the NBA, for example, the book might have a dozen years of data to price against. It might sound like a lot of games, but its not. The models have been focused on Team A was -150 pre-game, they lead by 6 halfway through the 2nd quarterr, so they should be -250. It's just data points.
Pre-game modelling in the last decade has gone very player specific. Every player is valued. Previously, if KD was out you'd just drop the limits, move the line 5 points and let the market decide where it should be. Now we know he is worth 6.5 points (just a guess, I don't touch NBA). This method hasn't really been used in live betting, apart from cricket and baseball. Now that they have this data for the pre-game they will factor it into the live prices. It will probably take another couple of years
Which is exactly why you should bet live in the nba. The market value has not caught up. You are on the driver's seat.
The juice is different for sure. Most lines you can get - 110-125 if you're quick.
Also bet 365 is not on a delay. Use this screen at all times. It's as close to TV as you're gonna get with no players to see. There are other websites you can use for the stats of the game like sofascore.
Personally, if I see a line that I know is way off the pregame market and what most of the public is on I'm going hard against it.
People love overs. The whole world does. What's the fun of an under? You can can some amazing numbers if you're patient.
If I could I would, but im not up to the effort of developing a live NBA model.
B365 are in delay. They use a program called Cobain, by a company called Perform. It is essentially the local tv feed being fed into this program. Apart from being there our best live customers traded off the radio.
I find that a lot of games revert back to their pregame mark. So if an NBA total was low, but it was a high scoring first half the second half will be low
Absolutely.One comment about live betting- watching a game can tell a different story than the numbers or data don’t account for. Momentum is real, key injuries happen, etc
Some folks can beat the market for decadesTwo more things
People who have a good season or two don't win long term. They have an edge and think that it will,always work. The market will always catch up with you. What worked 5 years ago does not work today. The longer and better your edge is the more likely others will find it. The game changes also - rule changes, coaching tendencies/ trends, etc. You need to keep finding new edges. It's all about staying ahead of the curve.
For example I made a profit for over 16 straight years on tennis. I was using ELO. Now a large number of people use it (thanks a lot The Social Network), now it is of no use. I've seen people come and I've seen them go
Secondly, and this dove tails off the above, people jump on what is trendy. I'm reading a lot at the moment about how important a catching RB is in the NFL, and also 2 TE sets. Well, if people like us can see that surely the coaching staff know this too. So instead of jumping on this bandwagon wouldn't the best idea be to look at the teams that defend this best? If you can see something don't think you are flying solo.
No matter what we think of ourselves there are many, many people out there much smarter then you and I
this is a good thread, and there are good points that have been made.
aside from being forced to use a free play/bonus bet on a pre-game wager, i haven't placed a bet before a game has started for years. 100% of my action is on live betting, and i feel i'm wasting my time otherwise. i do agree that sportsbooks want you to place as many live bets as possible because those lines are juiced even more.
live lines prey on the inexperienced gamblers. for every live bettor that exploits the errors in live betting, there are hundreds that have no idea, and just keep losing. so, the live programs are of course a major cash cow for the sportsbooks.
however, if you are attentive, have several different live platforms open at all times, and make sure that each of your account balances are deep, live betting should be the best money-maker you can imagine. the main reasons are 1) like all things computer-calibrated, there are bugs. and 2) each sportsbook calibrates and shades their live line differently.
i never place a bet unless i have a clear advantage or a sure profit regardless of the outcome. on college football saturday, it happens all the time. on slower sports days, i'll have to wait a while before an advantage presents itself. but if you're patient and have all options in front of you, something will come.
just by having bookmaker, 5crimes, betonline, heritage, bovada, and diamond open simultaneously...if there are a decent amount of games that day, you will find discrepancies that can be exploited with zero risk. once a game starts, you can see how each book is shading their live program with those 2 teams. if one is consistently lower than another, you keep an eye on it. at some point in the game, you will notice one will show something like -150 and the other will show +170. yeah, it's only a 20 cent difference, but if you max bet it (live program maxes range anywhere from $250-$3000 usually) it's an easy $50 each click. in basketball, this happens all the time. in football, it happens a lot. not as much in baseball and hockey, but it still happens. commercials are important because that's when you can get several bets in when the lines show a discrepancy. sometimes you can capture several hundred bucks in pure arbitrage profit within the minute and a half or two minute commercial break.
don't get impatient and make bets on your personal opinions. only bet when it's an undeniable advantage. you want to be indifferent on who wins the game, because no matter what, you'll bank a profit.
the middle opportunities are even more beautiful than the money line fluctuations. just on sunday, during commercial of the aints/chargers game in the 3rd quarter when the game was 17-10, one live program had over 35.5 +131, and another had under 36.5 +111. absolute worst thing that happens is you take home great juice on both sides. what actually happened was the aints scored a touchdown, missed a 2 pt conversion, then kicked a FG to win 19-17. in football, the programs don't factor in a possible 2 point attempt. the lines are made based around the 3's and 7's. even if the rest of my week is slow, that middle already made my week.
another blatant mistake of live football programs is they don't factor in a team that's ahead on the scoreboard bleeding clock. if alabama is a large favorite, and ahead by 14 points with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter with the ball on their own 30 yard line...i bet you can find a line like +14.5 -125. the programs don't understand that bama is just going to run the ball making one snap every 40 seconds, get a couple first downs, and go to the locker room. the only way you get beat here is if the running back breaks a 70-yarder.
there are plenty of people smarter than me, who know the teams better, who know the lines better. but it's all about productivity. i don't care how astute of a bettor someone is...the bottom line is all that matters. sometimes you can make the smartest play possible, and you take it up the ass when the final whistle is blown. i'm not into "smart plays." i'm into sure things. the smartest bettor in the world can't even come close to the unit profitability of this method. and it's all through exploiting live betting. waking up everyday without wasting time looking through matchups, lineups, line moves, etc., and knowing you will make money no matter what--is a great feeling. and the stress it saves you never having your money in the balance depending on a particular team to win a game is invaluable.
live betting, bankroll, several simultaneous accounts, focus, and thoroughness is my advice.
Without question, the most beneficial thing for me has been networking with winners. Sometimes their wins cannot overcome my losses but it sure helps ease the pain. I provided these people with my knowledge and they provided me with theirs. Unlike the forums where consensus plays stink, unless they are a consensus of 1 (ck makes a bet so a bumch of people do the same and post), consensus plays of winners, win.
A big error I have made (i have made all of them pretty much) through the years is betting my number that wasnt a play all week when it becomes a play after opposite side steam. So I did learn to at least be cautious with bet size before losing the bet.
2. Beat the market
3. Take advantage of any and everything the system allows
5. Prepare early
6. Push every edge (this was a big lesson with regard to sports investing. When I started, be selective and bet large on those events was what I learned when in reality it just cost me a lot of money by not being more active. Note the opposite is true if you are a net loser.
Best advice is to not bet .... i do not mean just the 99% of people who lose but even the 1% that win. I know what it takes to win and it isn't worth the work and the rabbit hole is quite deep.
If you are betting, have love in your heart for something about the game ... otherwise it will become a tedious job