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WGC Workday

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
SG: Approach (27%), SG: Par 5 (16%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass (18.5%), SG: ARG (18.5%) and SG: Total Nicklaus (20%).

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
  2. Jon Rahm (+850)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1100)
  4. Justin Thomas (+1850)
  5. Dustin Johnson (+525)
  6. Collin Morikawa (+5500)
  7. Bubba Watson (+11000)
  8. Tony Finau (+1600)
  9. Webb Simpson (+2250)
  10. Sergio Garcia (+7000)
 

DaddyMcIlhon

Well-Known Member
Played JT 18-1 and Hatton 22-1. May add one more. Hard to not play towards the top of the board in these strong field WGCs. Usually a top guy wins these.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
“It is a hard golf course, undeniably,” said Gary Koch, one of Azinger’s broadcast partners and an honorary member at Concession Club. “To be perfectly honest, I don’t play there a lot because it’s too hard. Day in and day out, it’s just hard to shoot a good score there. It’s in immaculate condition. Everything about it is first class. But you have to be a certain kind of player to play it well.”
Hmmm. Like, maybe, a top-50 player in the world who might possess a certain talent, like hitting it far?
“If you see the golf course from a 310-yard carry distance off the tee, it’s not very hard. If you carry it around 280s to 290s … anything under 300 it becomes a very difficult course,” Azinger said. “You basically have five dangerous shots out there. Three of those are eliminated for a guy who flies it 310 or more. Those guys will get six sand wedges in their hands, and then you have the four par 5s, so that’s 10 sand wedges, if they happen to lay up, but they ought to reach those par 5s most of the time. From a bomber’s eye, it’s not that difficult.
“With no wind, I can see 17-20 under par winning it,” the former PGA champion added. “If there’s wind, yeah, 7-8-9 under might be enough.”
Water comes into play on 12 holes, but the real defense of the golf course is found in the greens, which for member play can sometimes run as fast as 14 on the Stimpmeter. However, Azinger already has heard that the tour staff will keep them around 12½, so that will take a bit of teeth out of them. But they will still have some bite.
“You have to be so precise playing into the greens,” Koch said. “There are quadrants and ridges and slopes and a lot of false fronts … and, this is just me, but I would think the tour staff will err on the side of caution with hole locations. Virtually every green sits up. So once a ball veers off the green, it can run 10-15 yards down a slope away from the green. Then it does get interesting.”
“The greens are like mini-Augusta greens,” added Azinger. “A lot of small targets within the putting surfaces. You will see a lot of balls, when they hit the green, they will move away from the hole. Seldom will you see it move toward the hole. And chipping will be tough. But the grass is so pure that even I can get it close to the hole with no practice. And these guys are dialed in. Unless the wind blows, you’re going to see some guys shoot pretty low. But guys who play poorly are going to struggle. It’s the type of place that separates a field.”
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
And @DaddyMcIlhon is correct about Bryson:

It’s the first PGA Tour event to be played at the Nicklaus/Jacklin collaboration though it has hosted a few high-profile tournaments, including the 2015 NCAA Division I Golf Championships. Bryson DeChambeau was the individual National Champion that year while playing for Southern Methodist University, and while Bryson experienced success at The Concession, those that know the golf course best say it will provide the stiffest of tests to the world’s best players.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Forgot to post mine....back to the same well with Bryson. With the 4 par 5's and angles he'll be able to take on a few par 4's (when he's not splashing down in ponds) he has a huge edge at this place if (big if) he's right.

Beekcake 18-1
Im - 33-1
Harris 60-1

Good luck ya'll
 
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PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Fun article with all the past odds of previous winners for sure. I'll save my opinions for Sobel in general when it comes to handicapping but my points to Sobel would be....

  • These are WGC's (they are small fields to begin with)
  • These fields include out of 70-80 players of which ~30 are from Euro/Asian/Sunshine/etc... tours who couldn't hold their on in a normal PGA event which to me brings these events down to 30-40 dudes with a pulse
  • OWGR is terrible IMO at rewarding recent form and you always have a few hanger ons at the tail end of the top 50 whom have no chance at it
  • It's why there are so many low priced golfers vs the normal event....there is simply a significantly better chance of one of the studs to bring it home as there is less competition
  • 4 of the 18 referenced had odds of 40-1 or higher...i'd argue that defeats the purpose of Sobel's entire point as 40-1 in a field where literally only 30 guys can win is in the bottom quarter of potential winners typically for these fields
  • I think the math just proves out that it makes sense that the winner comes from the top 15 OWGR half the time since there are only 30 guys capable of winning any WGC field anyway if that makes sense
my random 2 cents at least
 
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DaddyMcIlhon

Well-Known Member
Fun article with all the past odds of previous winners for sure. I'll save my opinions for Sobel in general when it comes to handicapping but my points to Sobel would be....

  • These are WGC's (they are small fields to begin with)
  • These fields include out of 70-80 players of which ~30 are from Euro/Asian/Sunshine/etc... tours who couldn't hold their on in a normal PGA event which to me brings these events down to 30-40 dudes with a pulse
  • OWGR is terrible IMO at rewarding recent form and you always have a few hanger ons at the tail end of the top 50 whom have no chance at it
  • It's why there are so many low priced golfers vs the normal event....there is simply a significantly better chance of one of the studs to bring it home as there is less competition
  • 4 of the 18 referenced had odds of 40-1 or higher...i'd argue that defeats the purpose of Sobel's entire point as 40-1 in a field where literally only 30 guys can win is in the bottom quarter of potential winners typically for these fields
  • I think the math just proves out that it makes sense that the winner comes from the top 15 OWGR half the time since there are only 30 guys capable of winning any WGC field anyway if that makes sense
my random 2 cents at least
I’m not a fan of his either and I take your point. It’s a small field so naturally those guys have a better chance. Still seems relevant that it’s typically the top of the top guys who take these.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Sobel was a great follow until he went to TAN...

The integrating gambling has taken away what he was best at...

IMO
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Fun article with all the past odds of previous winners for sure. I'll save my opinions for Sobel in general when it comes to handicapping but my points to Sobel would be....

  • These are WGC's (they are small fields to begin with)
  • These fields include out of 70-80 players of which ~30 are from Euro/Asian/Sunshine/etc... tours who couldn't hold their on in a normal PGA event which to me brings these events down to 30-40 dudes with a pulse
  • OWGR is terrible IMO at rewarding recent form and you always have a few hanger ons at the tail end of the top 50 whom have no chance at it
  • It's why there are so many low priced golfers vs the normal event....there is simply a significantly better chance of one of the studs to bring it home as there is less competition
  • 4 of the 18 referenced had odds of 40-1 or higher...i'd argue that defeats the purpose of Sobel's entire point as 40-1 in a field where literally only 30 guys can win is in the bottom quarter of potential winners typically for these fields
  • I think the math just proves out that it makes sense that the winner comes from the top 15 OWGR half the time since there are only 30 guys capable of winning any WGC field anyway if that makes sense
my random 2 cents at least
Great stuff
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
  • OWGR is terrible IMO at rewarding recent form and you always have a few hanger ons at the tail end of the top 50 whom have no chance at it

Case in point: Tony Finau is 13 in OWGR. His last 4 starts are: P2, T2, T2, 4. You trying to tell me there are 12 guys playing better than him right now? Tiger is still somehow top 50. Recent injury aside, he's only played like 15 tournaments in the last 18 months
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Took a few matchups. Generally shy away from these in tourneys with no cut, but I wouldn't be on this forum if I didn't fire in bets just for the hell of it.

Scott +105 vs Hideki
Fleetwood -140 vs Rose
Cam Smith -135 vs Day
Oosthuizen EV vs Harris English
Leishman +120 vs Palmer
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
Round 1


Scottie +105 over Munoz/RCB at 10:09 am
Rory +140 over JT/Homa at 10:31
Hatton +110 over English/Woodland at 11:15
Sullivan +175 over Chump/Stone at 11:15
Smith +135 over Bez/Na at 11:26
Willy Z +135 over Bubba/Valimaki at 11:59

Scottie and Hatton a little larger wagers
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Tourney Group Bets

Hatton ov Bryson/JT/Hovland/Finau +400
..
iron play is key on a Nicklaus course and Hatton is awesome

Cam Smith ov Scheffler/Morikawa/Niemann/English +360
..fairly evenly matched group, so I went with the hair

Sergio ov Fleetwood/Deki/Scott/Day +420
..taking a price on Sergio having the flatstick humming this week

FRL Darts

Sungjae 40-1
Ancer 60-1
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Forgot to post mine....back to the same well with Bryson. With the 4 par 5's and angles he'll be able to take on a few par 4's (when he's not splashing down in ponds) he has a huge edge at this place if (big if) he's right.

Beekcake 18-1
Im - 33-1
Harris 60-1

Good luck ya'll

Matchups
2x Willy z -135 over Homa
1x Ancer -130 over Ortiz

R1
1x Berger -.5 -120 over Homa
1x Rahm -.5 -120 over Finau
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Tourney Group Bets

Hatton ov Bryson/JT/Hovland/Finau +400
..
iron play is key on a Nicklaus course and Hatton is awesome

Cam Smith ov Scheffler/Morikawa/Niemann/English +360
..fairly evenly matched group, so I went with the hair

Sergio ov Fleetwood/Deki/Scott/Day +420
..taking a price on Sergio having the flatstick humming this week

FRL Darts

Sungjae 40-1
Ancer 60-1
Good luck!
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
With ya on Im

Thanks on the matchups. Yeah you can see my angle I'm sure. Had to do it.... I was looking for Homa's tweet of him labled "Tired" on a flight to Florida earlier this week but that basically sums it up.
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Wagering on the hot putters cooling off for round 2.

Rd2 3-balls

Palmer ov Oost/Weisberger +163

Berger ov DJ/Brooks +225

Kuchar ov Westwood/Leishman +200

Ancer ov Fleetwood/Kisner +175




Good luck today folks. Swing it easy.
 

Rockfish

Well-Known Member
Took Cameron Percy at the B-flight site.
13/1

Took Viktor towards the end of round one. 45/1. Thru 17 holes of round two he was one shot back. Five minutes later I'm scrolling through the live odds and I see Viktor Hovland 150/1. WTF!
They had posted him with a 9 on number 9. Number 9 doesn't even have any water!
They quickly changed it to only a quad, and 80/1.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Took Cameron Percy at the B-flight site.
13/1

Took Viktor towards the end of round one. 45/1. Thru 17 holes of round two he was one shot back. Five minutes later I'm scrolling through the live odds and I see Viktor Hovland 150/1. WTF!
They had posted him with a 9 on number 9. Number 9 doesn't even have any water!
They quickly changed it to only a quad, and 80/1.
It was quite the spectacle... He first tried to play it out of some sort of palm tree/bush, and skulled it over the green into an impossible lie in a bunker where he honestly should've played it sideways or backwards. Instead though he tried the hero shot and sent it screaming back over the green and back into the same hazard area he started in, I think he took a penalty there and got it up and in for an 8.
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Moving Day Plays

3rd Rd 3-ball

Willy Z ov Fitz/Day +180

3rd Round Leader

Cam Smith +550

..having Koepka ahead of you inflates your odds and this kid is hanging nicely on a Strokes Gained basis.
 

DaddyMcIlhon

Well-Known Member
It’s gonna be windy tomorrow from what I’ve heard. I think that let’s some guys back into it and could hurt Morikawa. Brooks looks like he’s hurting. Backing Simpson at +850 and Reed at +1400. Good wind players.
 

Rockfish

Well-Known Member
Can anybody name the 4 guys since 1980 who made a quad and still went on to win?
Viktor would be the fifth.

Of the 4, the guy with the fewest wins has 8, including 2 majors.
 
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chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Can anybody name the 4 guys since 1980 who made a quad and still went on to win?
Viktor would be the fifth.

Of the 4, the guy with the fewest wins has 8, including 2 majors.
I seem to recall Phil doing this quite a while ago...don't remember the tourney or the year. But then again, maybe it just sounds like something Phil would do.
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Can anybody name the 4 guys since 1980 who made a quad and still went on to win?
Viktor would be the fifth.

Of the 4, the guy with the fewest wins has 8, including 2 majors.
Any time Adam Scott is in the hunt at a tourney, they always flashback to him tin-cupping a par 3 a few years ago..splashing it in the water a few times. I think they say he winds up winning the event?
 
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