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Week 3 Discussion Thread

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Saw a number of lines move 1-3 points after open, as things were pretty volatile out of the gate this afternoon at BOL.

Bama went from 14 to 17 to 16.5
Miami went from 7.5 to 5.5 to 6.5
BC went from 16.5 to 17.5
Purdue went from 8 to 7
OU went from 21.5 to 23.5 to 23

Just to name a few...
 

M.W.

Well-Known Member
Surely there was a look ahead factor in the Rice-UA game, but given Rice’s and UT’s performance against the same team seven days apart, did anyone foresee this week’s line as Texas-25?
 

M.W.

Well-Known Member
The Cincy number looks really light.

How is KSU a dog at home vs Nevada?

We should probably keep playing Clemson under. Defense has allowed three points in two games, while offense has been shaky.
 
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KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Ball St from Happy Valley to Laramie. Thats quite a road trip.

Does Florida St get off the mat after that debacle?

Tulane at Ole Miss is pretty damn interesting.
I assume they go back to campus for a couple days and wish I could wager on their study habits this week
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
How is KSU a dog at home vs Nevada?

Kansas State QB Thompson was injured last week 1st H. Will Howard is a different and limited QB. I assume Nevada favored on news of Thompson out this week? Nevada QB getting more NFL hype as season goes on.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Why can't ULL run? 76y on 29att vs Texas, ok. But 90y on 31att vs Nicholls (2.9ypc). They lost 2 good RBs, but expectation was that Chris Smith could assume the role, he's only getting 11 carries a game avg 4.55 then they have mixed in a couple Fr RBs. Definitely big drop off from last year's top RBs avg 6ypc or higher. Long season yet, but strange they didn't get rushing production vs Nicholls.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Took a quick look at some of the rankings the BCS used for their rankings, 4 of the 6 have 2021 rankings out.

The Colleymatrix is interesting. They have UTSA #8! But most interesting is they have Oregon #1...not that it is really all that surprising for a computer to have that, Alabama is #2. The really really interesting thing about that is what Colley consideres Oregon's best win - Oregon's best win they say is against #51 Fresno State! Because Ohio State ranks #52!

Man I love these computer rankings because the variance. Human polls are all pretty much the same. Computers just spit out results according to the program that is run. Colley also has Washington #135! Not enough data for these programs to produce any kind of good results...kind of like the human polls right?


Here are the others...Sagarin has Auburn #12 while Billingsley has Auburn #42!

 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
I love dogs and I love betting against favorites that will be dogs next week. The fact that they are dogs next week either means they are not elite or they will have extra motivation look ahead to playing a power house. This is a general statement with a certain premise. You can find your arguments with my simpleton statement the premise is More often then not, I am correct :clapping2:
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Why can't ULL run? 76y on 29att vs Texas, ok. But 90y on 31att vs Nicholls (2.9ypc). They lost 2 good RBs, but expectation was that Chris Smith could assume the role, he's only getting 11 carries a game avg 4.55 then they have mixed in a couple Fr RBs. Definitely big drop off from last year's top RBs avg 6ypc or higher. Long season yet, but strange they didn't get rushing production vs Nicholls.
Yeah, that is highly concerning...
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Am I nuts or is udub giving 17 to arky st seem like a lot? I’m pretty confident arky st will be able to score some points, even tho their defense leaves a lot to be desired just not sure huskies crappy offense can hang the kind of number I think it take to cover this? Feel like it take damn near 40 from udub to get the cover.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Those games in Hawaii scare me a bit but sjst only laying 7? That feels short to me. With all sjst had to deal with last season I can’t imagine they gonna let the Hawaii trip be a distraction. This feels like a no brainer to me.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Saw a number of lines move 1-3 points after open, as things were pretty volatile out of the gate this afternoon at BOL.

Bama went from 14 to 17 to 16.5
Miami went from 7.5 to 5.5 to 6.5
BC went from 16.5 to 17.5
Purdue went from 8 to 7
OU went from 21.5 to 23.5 to 23

Just

I woulda loved BC if wasn’t for fact their qb might be out for season, that really screws up what I thought were gonna be several good plays on BC coming up. Guess just need to watch the new qb this week and see if they still might be playable going forward. Such a bummer.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I'd expect BC to look pretty different. They have run the ball well this year (vs Colgate and UMass), but last year they only topped 100y in three games. In those 3 games they really ran it well, but in the other 8 games they relied heavily on Jurkovec. Grosel has played a lot, he is gritty and can make some throws, but you don't the gameplan to be him consistently making plays with his arm. I might assume games BC could've won somewhat comfortably become closer games and assumed closer games could become losses. Hafley is pretty respected coach so we'll have to see how he handles it.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I'd expect BC to look pretty different. They have run the ball well this year (vs Colgate and UMass), but last year they only topped 100y in three games. In those 3 games they really ran it well, but in the other 8 games they relied heavily on Jurkovec. Grosel has played a lot, he is gritty and can make some throws, but you don't the gameplan to be him consistently making plays with his arm. I might assume games BC could've won somewhat comfortably become closer games and assumed closer games could become losses. Hafley is pretty respected coach so we'll have to see how he handles it.

I really like the BC coach. Such a bummer the qb looks to be done for the year.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Those games in Hawaii scare me a bit but sjst only laying 7? That feels short to me. With all sjst had to deal with last season I can’t imagine they gonna let the Hawaii trip be a distraction. This feels like a no brainer to me.

I saw something surprising...on cfbstats, Nick Starkel has the worst completion percentage listed, there are 99 QBs ahead of him. He is completing just 54.8%. Not just a USC D thing either, 59% vs SUU and 52% vs USC. Their O does like to take downfield shots which lowers the %, as does the lack of experience and familiarity with the new starting receivers. Hawaii would seem just what the doctor ordered for Starkel and company as their D has been shredded vs Portland St and Oregon St. Last year San Jose didn't even need to pass the ball, 25 att was their fewest all season, because they ran for a season high 288. I haven't seen anything from Hawaii that suggests they are ready to better defend anything.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I'd expect BC to look pretty different. They have run the ball well this year (vs Colgate and UMass), but last year they only topped 100y in three games. In those 3 games they really ran it well, but in the other 8 games they relied heavily on Jurkovec. Grosel has played a lot, he is gritty and can make some throws, but you don't the gameplan to be him consistently making plays with his arm. I might assume games BC could've won somewhat comfortably become closer games and assumed closer games could become losses. Hafley is pretty respected coach so we'll have to see how he handles it.
I'm thinking they run more here. I'm on the under.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
I saw something surprising...on cfbstats, Nick Starkel has the worst completion percentage listed, there are 99 QBs ahead of him. He is completing just 54.8%. Not just a USC D thing either, 59% vs SUU and 52% vs USC. Their O does like to take downfield shots which lowers the %, as does the lack of experience and familiarity with the new starting receivers. Hawaii would seem just what the doctor ordered for Starkel and company as their D has been shredded vs Portland St and Oregon St. Last year San Jose didn't even need to pass the ball, 25 att was their fewest all season, because they ran for a season high 288. I haven't seen anything from Hawaii that suggests they are ready to better defend anything.
This is where I have to think they might overcompensate on run defense and it exposes the back 4. Can't imagine any team trying again to do what failed last time
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I saw something surprising...on cfbstats, Nick Starkel has the worst completion percentage listed, there are 99 QBs ahead of him. He is completing just 54.8%. Not just a USC D thing either, 59% vs SUU and 52% vs USC. Their O does like to take downfield shots which lowers the %, as does the lack of experience and familiarity with the new starting receivers. Hawaii would seem just what the doctor ordered for Starkel and company as their D has been shredded vs Portland St and Oregon St. Last year San Jose didn't even need to pass the ball, 25 att was their fewest all season, because they ran for a season high 288. I haven't seen anything from Hawaii that suggests they are ready to better defend anything.

that is pretty surprising. You know how it was last year? Hawaii should def be just what the dr ordered, their d has looked awful. I could def see sjst running all over them again if they choose to do so,, or they could use this game to try and get starkel in a better place? Pretty much can do whatever you want vs this d and I think sjst defense is good enough Hawaii offense won’t be able to keep them in the game.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Hawaii has been allowing the opposing teams to do whatever they want so far this year. I do very clearly remember a brilliant defensive gameplan they had vs Nevada last year - they dared Nevada to run and throw short, Hawaii refused to get beat deep and get beat by Duobs, and Nevada ran really well, and completed a lot of short throws, but the plan worked, Hawaii tackled well, got some occastional but key negative yardage plays and some penalties at the right time always helps. So anyway, this year's Hawaii team has not put together any kind of defensive gameplan that has given them a chance. Maybe they never would've had any chance vs UCLA granted, but what Portland St did and even Oregon St did Hawaii had no answers or any kind of visible plan.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Hawaii has been allowing the opposing teams to do whatever they want so far this year. I do very clearly remember a brilliant defensive gameplan they had vs Nevada last year - they dared Nevada to run and throw short, Hawaii refused to get beat deep and get beat by Duobs, and Nevada ran really well, and completed a lot of short throws, but the plan worked, Hawaii tackled well, got some occastional but key negative yardage plays and some penalties at the right time always helps. So anyway, this year's Hawaii team has not put together any kind of defensive gameplan that has given them a chance. Maybe they never would've had any chance vs UCLA granted, but what Portland St did and even Oregon St did Hawaii had no answers or any kind of visible plan.

speaking of Nevada you know I like them again this week. Kst qb injured once again, I’ll take the nfl qb to get it done against another power 5 team.
 

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