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Week 2 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Sorry for the late start, this working during the week thing has gotten extremely old and lately, even time consuming. Who knew? I'm hoping to stay on a roll as week 1 was kind to me. On the games I wrote up, we went 8-3-1. If I was a jackass (I might be anyway, but this would confirm it), I'd claim 9-3 because you could get OSU at -13.5 for most of the day Thursday, but that's semantics, so 8-3-1 it is. I was great to converse with everyone again last week and I'm looking forward to doing it all year. Seeing the full stadiums last week was good for the soul. On to this week.



Tulsa +14(-125) WIN
Miami(OH) +19 WIN
Navy +6 LOSS
Ball State +22 LOSS
Eastern Michigan +26 LOSS
Liberty -4 WIN
Washington +7 LOSS
Texas -7 LOSS



1. Tulsa +14(-125) @Oklahoma State: This line is actually creeping up, so if you wait a bit, you might not have to pay much to get it to 2 TDs. Tulsa is coming off an embarrassing loss to FCS UC Davis, but as we all know, the difference between these higher level FCS squads like Davis and Group of 5 teams is not that profound, and all it takes is a bad bounce here and there to get a result like Tulsa saw last week. A closer look at that box score shows that bad luck , i.e. a couple costly turnovers made the difference. Meanwhile, OSU found themselves in a similar spot last week against a much weaker FCS for, Missouri State, but the breaks went their way as Missouri State couldn't punch in a tying TD late in that game and the Pokes escaped with a 7 point win. OSU will get back starting QB Spencer Sanders this week from COVID quarantine, so their offense will likely be better, but despite some early career fireworks, Sanders has not been the high performing QB many anticipated over the past couple of years. He also won't have stud WRs Tylin Wallace or Dylan Stoner to throw to, and the Cowboys only managed 54 yards on 28 carries last week in that game against Mizz State. Even with Stoner, Wallace, Chuba Hubbard and Sanders last year(for the majority of the season anyway), OSU was pretty pedestrian, ranking 74th in yards per play. Now they face a Tulsa defense who has 9 starters and 11 of their top 14 tacklers back from a defense that ranked 5th in yards per play against in the nation last year and 8th against the pass. It's very likely that OSU will run into some tough sledding in this game, and if anything happens to Sanders, their backups have proven to not be the long term answer. I'm not enthralled with Tulsa's chances to score consistently against OSU's solid defense, but I think 14 will be a tough hill to climb in a game that will probably be low scoring, similar to last year's 16-7 game. I suspect a bounce back for Tulsa, as they'll have the opportunity to rinse the bad taste out of their mouths if they come through with a strong performance in this one, and I'm afraid OSU's offense just might not be all that good.
 
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2daBank

VC's Valentine
i cashed some osu-13.5 so count it baby!!! think it actually went back down to that closer to kick the reason i ended up playing..

i think the fact those fcs schools played that spring schedule while most the big schools didnt even play full schedules last year! really gave them a edge this season so im mostly not paying any attention to those results, im certainly not changing my feelings about the teams who lost to them much, shit happens! it be silly to throw away all the work we do on these teams in the summer just cause they get clipped by one those hungry and well prepared fcs schools!! that the way i see it anyways!!
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
2. Miami(OH) +19 @ Minnesota: Before Mohammad Ibrahim was ruled out for the year, I got this at 21, but it's still at 19 in some spots and I think Miami has a good shot at taking this down to the wire. The Redhawks got outclassed by Cincy last week, but that's going to happen to a lot of teams and it's a tough team to open the season against. I would suggest that Miami's offense will see a significant drop in class here. Miami's starting QB is Brett Gabbert, but he's been banged up so they were forced to start backup AJ Mayer last week, and against a defense like Cincy, the results were predictable. If they are forced to start Mayer, not all is lost as he has played extensively in the past and actually engineered a win over Ball State in Ball State's only loss last year. Miami came into the season a co-favorite to win the MAC east, and has most of their production returning from a team that had a pretty good offensive performance last year, ranking 45th in yards per play and 24th in rushing yards per carry. Their starting RB Keyon Mozee who transferred from K-State actually managed 80 yards on only 15 carries with a long of only 16, so they were actually able to runwith some consistency on Cincy. As we know, Minnesota's major weakness is run defense, and they aren't much better against the pass. Ohio State gashed them for 10 yards per play last week on only 48 plays, so it appears they have not cleaned up their penchant for allowing big plays. My assumption is that PJ Fleck will do us a favor and run the ball ad nauseum to establish a replacement for Ibrahim, and that will be ok for Miami because they finished the year 16th against the run and have 19 of their top 20 tacklers back from a year ago. I think this matchup sets up well for Miami on both sides of the ball. I think it will be hard for Minnesota to muster up their best effort two weeks in a row, especially with the hangover of not having their top player. Miami definitely has the chops to hang in until the end in this one.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
3. @Navy +6 v Air Force: This will be an emotional game, as they moved it up on the schedule so it could be played on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Navy was embarrassed by Marshall on their home field last week 49-7, so there will be a lot of motivation tied up in atoning for that. In addition, Navy was throttled last year in Colorado Springs as a 7 point road favorite, so they'll have revenge on their side as well. Coach Ken Niamatololo is starting to hear whispers that he might be slipping a bit, so if there's ever been a game where the Middies will be motivated, this is it. If you look closely at the Marshall game, Navy actually moved the ball very well, rushing for 300 yards. Unfortunately for them, they had trouble in the red zone and were stopped on downs on a few occasions, which accelerated the beating. Marshall did almost all their damage through the air, as Navy help them to only 3 yards per carry. Obviously, Air Force's MO is running the ball, but all of the Service Academies are used to playing against the option. I think this should be a lower scoring game, so I'll take the points here with the full expectation that Navy gives one of their top performances of the year. Also, this is a game dominated by dogs, especially home dogs.

4. Ball State +22 @ Penn State: This is a good Ball State squad, and they got caught looking ahead to this game last week when they slogged through a terrible performance against Western Illinois, winning by only 10. Penn State is in a hellacious sandwich spot. First, they're coming off a huge win in Madison in a game they did absolutely nothing offensively other than 2 or 3 plays and allowed Wisconsin to run 90 plays, yet still walked out of there with a win. Next week they welcome Auburn, a extremely rare SEC foe into Happy Valley for a much anticipated tilt. In the meantime they have to blow out a Ball State team that brings every important player back from a 7-1 team that annihilated a previously undefeated San Jose State team in the bowl. Oh and by the way, those 7 wins were not padded with wins against MAC creampuffs BG and Akron, but instead against the best of the MAC, including Toledo, Western Michigan and a previously untouchable Buffalo squad in the MAC title game. I just think it will be tough for Penn State to do what's necessary in this tough situational spot to blow out a team that won't roll over for them.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Brass, BOL on the week and keep it rolling. Do you have any thoughts on Buffalo +14 at Nebraska?
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Brass, BOL on the week and keep it rolling. Do you have any thoughts on Buffalo +14 at Nebraska?
Was leaning strong on Nebraska Timmy, but that was when it was sitting at 12.5. I’m really leery of Buffalo this year as they had a total exodus after Leipold left and I’m a bit dubious on the new staff being able to pick up the pieces and contend. The Wagner game was a mirage because they could barely field a team. This might be the week Buffalo gets exposed. Obviously not a believer in Frost and the Huskers but they have the athletes to expose Buffalo’s depth issues.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Any thoughts on score in the nut sack/psu game? I’m taking a liking to the over w VC.
Not a totals guy Bank. I’d just lead you the wrong way. I know my weaknesses and totals is definitely one of many. If Penn State hits on some bombs I can see the score getting up there a bit
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Not a totals guy Bank. I’d just lead you the wrong way. I know my weaknesses and totals is definitely one of many. If Penn State hits on some bombs I can see the score getting up there a bit

right on, I appreciate the honesty my friend! Now that you mention it I suppose I never recall seeing you post a total! Knowing ones weaknesses is a great strength to have!! Lots of ppl fail to acknowledge them even when obvious to all around!!! Totals have always been a strength of mine. Nfl I’m far better with totals than sides, ncaa it much closer. My weaknesses favorites, big spreads in the 20s, among other things!! Lol.

to me the nut Sack st/psu game is one my favorite kind of totals. One where I feel if the dog can stay I within the number it has a very high probability of going over!!! I prefer these overs instead the dog as not only am i confident it goes over in event of a cover but even if dog fails to stay within number still may get over!! Glad to see several ppl I respect on ball state, gives me more confidence they can hang some points!
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
5. Eastern Michigan +26 @ Wisconsin: The fear here is that Wisconsin will come in hopping mad after the way they shit the bed against Penn State last week and just run all over EMU, and based on how bad EMU was against the run last year, you'd almost expect it, but this again does not appear to be your older brother's Wisconsin offense or run game. Under Grant Mertz, the Badgers, rarely looked anything like they did 5-10 years ago, and they've developed a penchant for blowing offensive opportunities more than anything else. EMU won't be intimidated, as they have 21 of 22 starters back, and every available yard gained last year on offense is back in uniform this year. EMU has been money as a road dog under Chris Creighton (14-3 since 2017). Wisconsin will probably have to score 40+ to cover a number this high, and I'm skeptical that they can do that.

6. Liberty -4 @ Troy: This is quite the square play, and maybe I'll regret doing this, but as it stands, I cannot make any reasonable case for not laying the short number here with Liberty. This is a team that was a missed FG against NC State from going undefeated last year, and that's against a schedule that included 3 power 5 squads and Coastal Carolina in the bowl. The return 20 of 22 starters including QB Malik Willis who had a 20/6 ratio and also ran for 1,000 yards and 14 TDs. on Defense they return all but 1 of their top 15 tacklers and 24 sacks and 8 INTs worth of playmaking experience. In addition to that, Hugh Freeze is 14-6 in all his lined games since he came to Liberty, and he was a significant plus ATS when he was at Ole Miss as well. Liberty has the edge in every conceivable category that I look at in the head to head matchup. The Flames are a resourceful bunch, and although Troy returns almost all of their guys, I think hey can cover this number.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Glad to see you on liberty cause I been wrestling with it as well, back to favs not being my strength and yea they feel super square!! My tin foil had radar going crazy with these guys and Rutgers!! I’ve decided to steer clear of rutgsrs but liberty keeps calling my name! Huge Malik Willis fan and high freeze fan!!
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
7. Washington +7 @MIchigan: A week ago in game of the year type offerings, this game was a pick em. After one week, one of the teams couldn't have had a worse performance, and the other looked about as good as you can look. This being college football, as long as there isn't a severe talent gap, these performances will probably even out. IN Washington's case, they definitely have the talent. The OL is among the best in the country according to Steele, and their defense shapes up to be top 10-15 as well. If Washington can get anything going on he ground, they'll be in position to make this a close game as Michigan does not out-athlete the Huskies. Washington will be out to prove that they aren't the weak slugs they appeared to be when hey got smacked by Montana. I'll be surprised if Michigan has the chops to blow out Washington as a result of a second consecutive near perfect effort.
 
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2daBank

VC's Valentine
My man! This the Value play on principle play of the week!! Dunno if it cash but how can we throw out everything we believed, everyone’s power ranking, etc etc cause one week with shocking result? I’m not sure Lake was the right man for this job, don’t think I like him, if huskies don’t respond and play well he will break the record for how quickly everyone realized a coaching hire was a mistake! Lol. Dont pass go don’t collect 200, just pack his bags!! I played under 48.5 but will have to have this one way or another since you on it also!
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
8. Texas -7 @Arkansas: Count me among those who felt the whole obsession from Texas to snap up Steve Sarkisian by all means necessary as foolish. Sarkisian, he latest beneficiary of Nick Saban: Coach Launderer is a guy who had only middling success at 2 high profile jobs with all the raw materials necessary to hit a home run for any good coach. Now, after driving a Lamborghini effectively for a couple years, Texas gives him the keys to the kingdom. Count me as skeptical. However, he was dealt a pretty solid deck with what was left for him by Tom Hermann. 7 starters return on a defense that was solid in pretty much every phase, and a vast improvement over the tackling allergic squads of a few years prior. They also return Bijan Robinson, who I regard as the best back in the country even though he's only officially a Freshman. 8.2 yards per carry and 13+ per reception last year and a good performance last week in a 19 point win over a LaLa team that's likely a notch better than Arkansas. Arkansas comes off a season in which they surprised, but when you peek at the stats, you wonder how. They certainly couldn't stop the run, ranking 91st in yards per attempt against, and they were very reliant on the departed Felipe Franks for most of their offensive production. KJ Jefferson is the replacement, but he was very pedestrian last week against Rice, relying on his legs much more than any passing prowess. They have no dropback passing game with Jefferson and with Texas's athletes, Jefferson will probably look very limited back there. The atmosphere will be hopping in Fayetteville as these two are longtime rivals who haven't played each other in a long time. But once the emotion dies down, I think this matchup is extremely tilted in Texas's favor. The Hogs could play an outstanding game and not cover this number. Don't forget that although they covered against Rice, they were tied late in the 3rd quarter and committed 13 penalties in that game. Also, I believe this game will have Texas's full attention, as they have Rice on deck and they'll want to show that their impending move to the SEC is no joke.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Thoughts on ohio state game?
What's up Hunt!

Lean very heavy to laying the points with OSU there but I hate laying more than 2 TDs. I'll be playing the Buckeyes at -14 (-120) but so many things can happen late to backdoor me that I decided not to write it up. Also, I haven't seen a single person anywhere make any kind of case for Oregon, which scares me a bit. Ultimately, OSU's defense has me on alert for when they play a team with an explosive offense, but Oregon isn't it. I am just not sold on Anthony Brown at QB...he's just ok. Now that the Ducks have injuries on defense, they are likely to get torched by Day's scheme so it's enough for me to invest, but I just have this little voice in my head telling me not to go all in on it. That's ramble, but I hope it helps.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Looks like it might only be 8 this week. Had a couple others I was close to pulling the trigger on, but just not quite ready to do it. There's a slight chance I might add a couple later, but it looks like it will just be these 8. Small card for me, I usually have more. BOL to everyone.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
What's up Hunt!

Lean very heavy to laying the points with OSU there but I hate laying more than 2 TDs. I'll be playing the Buckeyes at -14 (-120) but so many things can happen late to backdoor me that I decided not to write it up. Also, I haven't seen a single person anywhere make any kind of case for Oregon, which scares me a bit. Ultimately, OSU's defense has me on alert for when they play a team with an explosive offense, but Oregon isn't it. I am just not sold on Anthony Brown at QB...he's just ok. Now that the Ducks have injuries on defense, they are likely to get torched by Day's scheme so it's enough for me to invest, but I just have this little voice in my head telling me not to go all in on it. That's ramble, but I hope it helps.
Sums up my thoughts here as well.

Brown isn't the guy to take advantage.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Looks like it might only be 8 this week. Had a couple others I was close to pulling the trigger on, but just not quite ready to do it. There's a slight chance I might add a couple later, but it looks like it will just be these 8. Small card for me, I usually have more. BOL to everyone.

just a tough card to find a ton on,, i have handful of totals which helps but think im only gonna have 5-10 sides at most.. gl today
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
7. Washington +7 @MIchigan: A week ago in game of the year type offerings, this game was a pick em. After one week, one of the teams couldn't have had a worse performance, and the other looked about as good as you can look. This being college football, as long as there isn't a severe talent gap, these performances will probably even out. IN Washington's case, they definitely have the talent. The OL is among the best in the country according to Steele, and their defense shapes up to be top 10-15 as well. If Washington can get anything going on he ground, they'll be in position to make this a close game as Michigan does not out-athlete the Huskies. Washington will be out to prove that they aren't the weak slugs they appeared to be when hey got smacked by Montana. I'll be surprised if Michigan has the chops to blow out Washington as a result of a second consecutive near perfect effort.
Yeah, this line is a bit out of hand now.

No play on either side.

Even with the 3 damn good Lineman, this UW team just could not run the ball last week. Very wild.

Washington apparently spent a lot of camp time on this game, so the lookahead factor was in place.... But...still to struggle like that is interesting...

Turnovers is the game here.

Still sticking with 24-14 Mich here... Should be a slobber knocker under the lights.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
im not super high on brown or anything but after watching what gophers did with the rpo game against buckeyes defense i dont see why ducks cant have success with run game which should expose those big ass holes to pull ball out and throw those slants, think he capable of that.. not saying ducks gonna beat them but 14.5 a lot. i think it more like a 10 point game.
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
What's up Hunt!

Lean very heavy to laying the points with OSU there but I hate laying more than 2 TDs. I'll be playing the Buckeyes at -14 (-120) but so many things can happen late to backdoor me that I decided not to write it up. Also, I haven't seen a single person anywhere make any kind of case for Oregon, which scares me a bit. Ultimately, OSU's defense has me on alert for when they play a team with an explosive offense, but Oregon isn't it. I am just not sold on Anthony Brown at QB...he's just ok. Now that the Ducks have injuries on defense, they are likely to get torched by Day's scheme so it's enough for me to invest, but I just have this little voice in my head telling me not to go all in on it. That's ramble, but I hope it helps.

Thanks for taking the time to respond to me bro. I appreciate it. It is a very odd game for sure. Not sure Oregon can keep up in a track meet if it goes that way. I'm with you on Brown. Sometimes he looks like pat mahomes, other days he looks like pat McAfee.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Brass have yourself a great weekend, like your Washington pick especially. I need to take a look at Liberty also. Always enjoy your threads!
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
im not super high on brown or anything but after watching what gophers did with the rpo game against buckeyes defense i dont see why ducks cant have success with run game which should expose those big ass holes to pull ball out and throw those slants, think he capable of that.. not saying ducks gonna beat them but 14.5 a lot. i think it more like a 10 point game.
Nailed it Bank.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Yeah, this line is a bit out of hand now.

No play on either side.

Even with the 3 damn good Lineman, this UW team just could not run the ball last week. Very wild.

Washington apparently spent a lot of camp time on this game, so the lookahead factor was in place.... But...still to struggle like that is interesting...

Turnovers is the game here.

Still sticking with 24-14 Mich here... Should be a slobber knocker under the lights.
Good call BAR,

What you hinted at ended up being true. Washington couldn't run, and they couldn't stop the run either. Bad combo for them.
 

Br@ssknux

Well-Known Member
Well, to recap, CFB handicapping is a tough proposition, as we all know. Predictably, 3-5 follows a good opener.

There were two FBS teams that I'm aware of that failed to crack 100 total yards in their games (100 total yards...ponder that for a second) and I was on both of them (Navy and EMU). I guess the only solace in the EMU bet is that when a team fails to gain 100 yards of offense, yet misses the cover by only 1 point, you were probably on to the right side. It turned out Wisconsin dominated every second of that game but still found 26 difficult to cover. Another tip to remember: When you're totally skeptical about a team's head coach(Texas), and spend half of the write up talking about it, it might not be a good idea to lay 7 with his team on the road in a hostile environment.

On to next week. Thanks for the conversation. Great points made by everyone this week.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Good call BAR,

What you hinted at ended up being true. Washington couldn't run, and they couldn't stop the run either. Bad combo for them.
JH is stepping back in a bit this year(offensively), hence all this running ... which is a good thing....

I wasn't expecting them to go wild on the ground but am certainly happy. We had data from last week that it was possible both ways but I still had a lot of respect for the Wash D.
 

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