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Week 17 Discussion Thread

I’m in a Hilton/Westgate copycat league and finding five teams is not easy this week. So many unknowns. I think Giants will find their way on the card. Leaning Skins. Lean Texans because I get 7.5 and they have played division teams tough. I think for once the “bad teams” Jets/jags/Bengals all wouldn’t mind getting out there and putting a great effort out.

I have until 5est to pick 5. Lot of $$ on the line
I really like the Bengals of those 3 you listed. The most motivation- playing spoiler to a divisional opponent, nobody gives them a shot. PLaymakers in Higgins/Boyd and Bernard is playing well.
 
Yessir. I feel like they come out loose and with no distractions. Just not sure if it’s enough.


Under Marrone the Jags have a strong history finishing the regular season especially at home. In 2016 home finale they throttled Titans 38-17. In 2017 home finale, they beat Houston 45-7. 2018 home finale was a 16-13 loss to Washington. 2019 home finale was a 38-20 win vs Indy.

A possible distraction could be the rumors circulating about Doug Marrone's future. But the Jags vociferously denied any speculation that he'll be fired after the game. So I think that helps the players stay focused on the game. While they have the number one pick wrapped up, i'm not sure that really changes anything because this team was already giving effort. The scoreline against the Bears is a bit deceiving...Glennon interceptions in Jax territory really stretched out the lead for Chicago. Jax was competitive in that game for a while. The Jags have repeatedly been close against superior teams. They've been manhandled by others...especially by physical teams that like to control clock by running the ball. They have exploited a beat-up Jax d-line with lots of turnover that, like last year, cannot contain a good ground game. It's not just teams that like to run...Jax was able to zero in on Dalvin Cook with some success in regulation. It's teams with physical run-blocking and bruising running backs.

The offense is already really bad...now also missing Chark and the starting running back. Hard for any continuity in the offense when the quarterbacks keep rotating. So I imagine if you like the Jags you probably also like the under.
 
Under Marrone the Jags have a strong history finishing the regular season especially at home. In 2016 home finale they throttled Titans 38-17. In 2017 home finale, they beat Houston 45-7. 2018 home finale was a 16-13 loss to Washington. 2019 home finale was a 38-20 win vs Indy.

A possible distraction could be the rumors circulating about Doug Marrone's future. But the Jags vociferously denied any speculation that he'll be fired after the game. So I think that helps the players stay focused on the game. While they have the number one pick wrapped up, i'm not sure that really changes anything because this team was already giving effort. The scoreline against the Bears is a bit deceiving...Glennon interceptions in Jax territory really stretched out the lead for Chicago. Jax was competitive in that game for a while. The Jags have repeatedly been close against superior teams. They've been manhandled by others...especially by physical teams that like to control clock by running the ball. They have exploited a beat-up Jax d-line with lots of turnover that, like last year, cannot contain a good ground game. It's not just teams that like to run...Jax was able to zero in on Dalvin Cook with some success in regulation. It's teams with physical run-blocking and bruising running backs.

The offense is already really bad...now also missing Chark and the starting running back. Hard for any continuity in the offense when the quarterbacks keep rotating. So I imagine if you like the Jags you probably also like the under.
I watched a lot of that Jags game last week and they were anything but competitive. No clue what that means in this meaningless game for them but they were outmatched big time last week and couldn’t stop a bad Bears offense from doing whatever they wanted.
 
I’m in a Hilton/Westgate copycat league and finding five teams is not easy this week. So many unknowns. I think Giants will find their way on the card. Leaning Skins. Lean Texans because I get 7.5 and they have played division teams tough. I think for once the “bad teams” Jets/jags/Bengals all wouldn’t mind getting out there and putting a great effort out.

I have until 5est to pick 5. Lot of $$ on the line
Like the Giants as well.

Liked Skins better at 2.5 vs Eagles starters, than 3.5 with Eagles out. Not sure what number you have.

Lean Denver, and Rams intrigue me. If we all think Goff is so bad and just a McVay robot, why do we think he’s 6 points better than a backup McVay robot?
 
So does Tampa play balls out to lock up the 5 seed and play the NFC East winner? The Falcons keep trying every week. Raheem just interviewed for the job so you know he is going to try what he can to win.

Seems like a game the Falcons could win? Falcons dominated the game 2 weeks ago at half and then imploded as only the Falcons can.
 
@wiseplayer Rams thoughts?


From the outside it may very well be a blessing in disguise for the Rams to lose Goff. If there is a defense capable of going bonkers it's without a doubt this one. Looking like Akers might be able to go which would be huge... Kupp out is tough but I think the Rams would want to take the air out of the ball as much as possible anyway. No way I want to lay chalk vs the Rams in a must win spot here. Rams+ pts is a lean.
Lex, there's a lot going on in this matchup. We've got the unknown at QB. However like you mentioned, Wolford could be a blessing in disguise. He's a mobile QB which works perfect for the misdirection McVay likes to run. The other key factor is Arizona is 1 of the worst teams in the NFL getting pressure and sacking the QB. Rams olinemen have matched up well vs them.
If Akers isn't effective, Malcom Brown is plenty good enough to take on 20-25 carries for 100+. Kupp being out isn't that big of a factor because there's very good depth with Jefferson.
Defensively the Rams DL has won this matchup. If Murray isn't healthy even better. This defense is screaming to McVay not to let this offense lose this game.
Not sure this is a game to wager on because of the insertion of Wolford. The 1st thing that came to mind when I heard Goff was out was the 1990 Giants. Phil Simms got hurt when the Giants were 11-0 I believe. Jeff Hostetler came in and was downright awful in the beginning but the Giants had that D. They dummied down the offense and committed to pounding the rock with OJ Anderson and relying on their D. Hostetler became a misdirection rollout QB. He was more mobile than Simms. Everything was high percentage throws mostly to the TE's. They subsequently won by shortening games and winning in the teens. Its a formula that is tough to consistently win with because every game is close but I believe that's what we'll see Sunday vs Arizona and beyond.
McVay didn't throw deep with Goff and I find it difficult to believe he's going to take chances with Wolford.
The total is 41 5. That seems high to me. 6 TDs??? Where, with who?
 
I really like the Bengals of those 3 you listed. The most motivation- playing spoiler to a divisional opponent, nobody gives them a shot. PLaymakers in Higgins/Boyd and Bernard is playing well.
Why would the Pats be -3??? Jets are playing well and Pats just have no motivation. That line is off to me.
 
I would imagine he sees some time. Maybe a couple early targets before Allen gets pulled. Having been off for so long I'm sure they want to see where he is at. I suspect the Beasley injury may be slightly more serious than they are letting on, otherwise I don't see why they would even bother with Stills. I have a hard time seeing the Bills winning this week. No way they will play Allen/Diggs/ Milano/Edmunds/Tre & maybe even Poyer more than a quarter.

Something to consider here...

Beasley out, Diggs likely plays a couple series then is done. That leaves you with John Brown returning from injury presumably on a snap count. Gabe Davis, McKenzie, & Andre Roberts. Andre Roberts is the key return man and a huge part of Bill's success. No way they want him out there getting targeted like crazy. Gabe & McK both play parts in the offense, they want to protect them too. Barkley will be in the game likely before the half, presumably handing off to Taiwan Jones a bunch. Maybe they will dial up a couple passes but they'll be high percentage to tight ends like Lee Smith.

I would play very close attention to who is activated for Buffalo, as I think it could be a good indicator of what the game plan will be. If Kroft/Gilliam are activated you know the offense will be all Taiwan Jones and bleeding the clock. If Trent Murphy is active they will be sitting a d lineman early, and if a LB & Poyer get pulled out Miami will be able to run ALL over the Bills. Poyer came back in last week after being checked for a concussion. His style is Very physical and they may decide to keep him from banging with rbs this week.

McDermott has talked about giving people who have earned a right to see playing time live action. It just so happens that the circumstances may dictate that he goes uber conservative and gets to the playoffs in tact. JMO it's tough though because of all things they have going for them momentum is a big one, provided you believe in that sort of thing.

Well we'll see how much the league likes the Saints. Kamara may be eligible to play a Sunday playoff game, but not Saturday.
I believe the league tries to get the better matchups on Sunday. If I'm the NFL Saints are an Automatic Sunday game
 
I believe the league tries to get the better matchups on Sunday. If I'm the NFL Saints are an Automatic Sunday game
Sat night in prime time and Sun afternoon are the big pulls. Not sure how they're doing it this year with 6 games the first weekend.
 
Dolphins ML +105 for me. Think line flips by morning. Don’t like backing Tua but really think Buff ends up resting their guys
 
How great is that to have a tripleheader both days next weekend. Thats nuts
NFL Playoff Schedule 2020-21: NFC & AFC Start Dates, Times | Heavy.com

So early, middle, late both days, same times. Prime time games will be for those who deliver the ratings so very likely Steelers will get one of them, hard to make a case for anyone else unless GB ends up the 2 seed, so maybe it's the Saints I guess but they don't have much national appeal really. Of course the NFC East winner will have the name brand but not sure if they want to put that in prime time...guess if it's Buccos v Wash/NYG/Dallas there's a story
 
Dolphins ML +105 for me. Think line flips by morning. Don’t like backing Tua but really think Buff ends up resting their guys
I would take the +2-110 that's everywhere juuuust in case it's a low scoring close ending. Bass has been really solid kicking and if the Bills D does give Tua problems it could be a field position type game. Fwiw i think Miami ats, ml & tt over all hit. Gaskin prop will soar over whatever the line.

Could be a potentially great day to 2ndh bet
 
ML dogs I'm thinking of playing

Texans +295 Watson & Watt alone make this tempting. Titans D has been reeling, Watson makes plays. Admittedly wouldn't be surprised to see 21-0 Titans after 1 quarter either. I just think the line is a bit high and nearly 3 to 1 on likely Watt's last game vs a divisional opponent?

Bengals +600 haven't seen not 1 ml wager on the Bengals around and they have been playing good ball. Another divisional clash where all the pressure is on the Ravens to shine. Would be absolutely insane to see the Ravens blow it but someone's getting screwed... thought I'd be able to get +700 though might go up.

SF- I have to at least consider it, but I don't love it. Good coaching, Kittles back and a run game. I just have a feeling the Hawks may want to make a statement.

Rams- That D +130. No Kirk now either this is shaping up to be a war.

Broncos +130- looks like a sucker bet but I'm playing the Broncos. Lock should be able to shine vs that defense and cause all kinds of off season drama. Vegas needs to move on from Carr and Gruden
 
Why would the Pats be -3??? Jets are playing well and Pats just have no motivation. That line is off to me.
My guess is the books liability. If they drop Pats below 3 I suspect they get hammered with Pats money. I agree with you though. As a lifelong Pats fan I haven't seen them look as disinterested in a game as a couple weeks ago & I didn't even watch Monday but appeared to be even worse. They want the season over & how badly would the Jets love to beat them in NE no less?
 
My guess is the books liability. If they drop Pats below 3 I suspect they get hammered with Pats money. I agree with you though. As a lifelong Pats fan I haven't seen them look as disinterested in a game as a couple weeks ago & I didn't even watch Monday but appeared to be even worse. They want the season over & how badly would the Jets love to beat them in NE no less?
How about the Pats positioning themselves to move up in the draft to land Zach Wilson?
 
I like the jets. Throw out the Seattle game abs they’ve won or been competitive. Should have won the earlier meeting. Think they don’t out w more fire than pats do tbh
 
I know I am quite the minority here but I believe the red rocket goes into NY and completely dominates. After last weeks performance and the implications I put my money on Zeke beasting and Dalton slinging. Fuck the rain
 
Regardless of the Playoff implications, the Browns are still the Browns and Baker is still Baker. Steelers +10? Yes please; my money is on them to keep it close in this situation every single time.
 
Regardless of the Playoff implications, the Browns are still the Browns and Baker is still Baker. Steelers +10? Yes please; my money is on them to keep it close in this situation every single time.
Typically agree, but Tomlin stinks in week 17
 
Typically agree, but Tomlin stinks in week 17

so do the Browns :) i’m by no means suggesting a Steelers victory, although it would not surprise me in the slightest bit. That being said, 10 points is just way too much in this league for a team like the Browns.
 
Bills inactives- No hughes, Addison or Tre White defensively. They called up Antonio Williams at rb to keep Taiwan Jones healthy for special teams. The writing is on the wall guys if Miami doesn't win I'd be shocked. You're going to see Barkley handing off to Williams a bunch.
 
I think the AFC wildcard teams hold serve today, leaving Tenn or Ind out depending on their games.

I think Arizona with Murray should be better than Wolford & Sons. Pack beat Bears again, so Bears stay home, AZ #6, LAR #7 based on division record.

AFC First round matchups: Cle at Buf, Balt at Pitt, Mia @ AFC South Winner
NFC First round matchup: LAR at NO, Ari at Sea, Tam @ NFC East Winner

Guessing at schedule:

1:00 pm Sat (ESPN) - Mia @ AFC South Winner - its tradition at this point. AFC South gets the opener.
4:40 pm Sat (CBS) - Ari @ Sea - This is an oddball game, its sorta appealing but not all that much. Not good enough for prime time and Fox has the 1:00 pm on Sunday, so this falls in here.
8:15 pm Sat (NBC) - LAR @ NO - 2nd best game on the card and a rematch of that famous NFC Championship game. Could flip to Sun 1:00 pm if Dallas or NYG wins the East.
1:00 pm Sun (FOX) - Tam @ Wash - Fox needs an NFC game, and the league will cut WFT a break if they get in by not giving the Sun night game a short week. If its Tam @ NYG or Dallas, move this baby to Sat night NBC and put LAR at NO in here.
4:40 pm Sun (CBS) - Cle @ Buf - CBS needs an AFC game, and this is the next best left
8:00 pm Sun (NBC) - Bal @ Pit - Tell me NBC doesn't get back the Thanksgiving night game they lost, I dare ya
 
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