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Week 12 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Wow. Week 12. Amazing.

Season is moving along just like 2020.

What do we like this week....

Ready, Set, Go
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Pitt (how can VT give points to anyone?)
Utah (surely Utah learned something from the endless number of rainbows USC completed on them last year)
Washington State
Nevada
Hawaii
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Pitt (how can VT give points to anyone?)
Utah (surely Utah learned something from the endless number of rainbows USC completed on them last year)
Washington State
Nevada
Hawaii

I dunno if I have posted that yet anywhere but my thoughts exactly on the tech/pitt game. Pitt front 7 will keep hooker in check and then what? Hooker has tuned into their whole offense, hell they might wanna try him out on the defensive side cause that a horrific mess!! Panthers with their qb gonna do what basically every team does and score 30+ on that defense bud foster musta been holding together with duct tape!! Panthers by 10+ imo and without a Herculean effort from hooker could get way out of hand!! I’m done letting Hokies odd lines scare me at all, fact is books way freaking off with this team!!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
1st time thru possibilities....

EMU
Okie State
Hawaii
UNLV
UCF
UCLA
Illini
IU
New Mexico
Tennessee


:popcorn:

i would scratch ufc pal, the payout not great and I think they next in like on the cincy waxing everyone to make a statement tour. If Illini finally starts getting some covid guys back I would love that but the college rules very confusing? Their qb has to stay away 21 days for contract tracing? Dies he even have? Wtf,?,??!?????

I like okie lite as well. Think they will be able to run on sonners. Better defense, better run game, catching a td. Not sold on rattler and think he be under pressure. If big-12 wants a team in the playoff Cowboys have to win and I think the can.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Playing.....

2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:

Eastern Michigan +201
New Mexico +241
Kansas State +337
Middle Tennessee State +337
Risking $33.00 (11 parlays at $3.00) To Win $1,448.39

BOLTA!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Last week and this one real tough sledding for dogs imo. I hope I can sniff out a few bigger ones since so far pitt my favorite one on card and they only +3!!!
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
These are the ones I will be sorting through:

Syracuse - upgrade at QB (JaCobain Morgan)...who all has opted out for LV now or is it just Hawkins?
Indiana - just because it would be fucking awesome!
Texas St - ML'd them two of the last 3, no upset, but covered both that's enough...they aren't quitting
Northwestern - some of these games in series are close: 2019 15-24 (and NW sucked balls last year), 2018 31-17 (NW wins!), 2017 24-33 (covered but misleading/lucky)
MTSU - I actually kind of liked them last week, but then realized it was Marshall's 75 game...still thought MTSU competed well in 1st H, Troy getting more unpredictable
South Carolina - Other than the Texas A&M game they are averaging like 31 ppg still...Mizzou's roster might be as thin as SC's. Line/Odds seem off
Oklahoma State - Bedlam! Gundy just 2-13 vs OU though?
Arizona - what was there to like about Washington O? Zona looks decent, might be improved (UW beat them 51-27 last year but Zona led at HT and had four 2nd H turnovers)
Hawaii - late night upset special on the islands, still think Boise looks off this year with holes on roster and down on talent, Hawaii plays better at home
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I don’t really see why mizzou should be laying a td at scary.
All kinds of depth problems at USCjr....players are opting out after the coaching change. I don't remember the exact ones but I do remember a RB and OLineman were switched over to defense by Bobo this past week. FWIW....
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
EMU last night. Ugh! :mad:


I'll be picking from these fwiw...

New Mexico
MTSU
Kansas State
Michigan State
Tennessee
FIU
Texas State

:popcorn:
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I don’t really see why mizzou should be laying a td at scary.

All kinds of depth problems at USCjr....players are opting out after the coaching change. I don't remember the exact ones but I do remember a RB and OLineman were switched over to defense by Bobo this past week. FWIW....
SC does have roster issues.

This details some of issues you mention Jrock:



Missouri though only has 54 scholarship players available (one above the SEC limit, although they can choose to play if they drop below).


SC's problems are perhaps more recent and better reported...the defense has been bad pretty much all year. They don't get better without Horn or Roderick or Mukuamu or Sterling or Scott or Johnson...some of those players are important, some of them aren't that important. But if they weren't good with them, I guess they could get worse without them, or they could just be equally bad.

Pretty much just hoping the SC O can carry the day if one goes the Gamecock route here.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
Just read a line in Power Sweep that Mark Moneymaker posts for us..."Northwestern has upset Wisconsin 11 times since 1989".
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Just read a line in Power Sweep that Mark Moneymaker posts for us..."Northwestern has upset Wisconsin 11 times since 1989".
I looked into this game pretty hard and I lean heavily in Wisky's favor to win....fwiw.

:popcorn:
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I don’t know what really gonna happen at Rutgers, like I don’t think I’d make a regular straight play on Rutgers w the points, but I do think they a money line worth fuckin with. Would anyone be shocked if Michigan went up there and lost? No juice from fans even at Rutgers thinks might benefit them, I think they will self motivate and their sideline be all in. Not sure if Michigan will have that kind of energy?? They could, then they would romp them which why the 10.5 don’t matter much to me, I think it one those ways or another where points don’t matter and we getting a pretty good Money line price compared to what I think could happen!! Maybe the points be a good idea too but this def makes my ml dog list.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
I don’t really see why mizzou should be laying a td at scary
Both starting CBs for S Carolina opted out and so did several others.

But I still don't see laying points with Missouri

Arkansas is now a dog so my list is:
Pitt (how can VT give points to anyone?)
Utah (surely Utah learned something from the endless number of rainbows USC completed on them last year)
Washington State
Nevada
Hawaii
Arkansas
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Both starting CBs for S Carolina opted out and so did several others.

But I still don't see laying points with Missouri

Arkansas is now a dog so my list is:
Pitt (how can VT give points to anyone?)
Utah (surely Utah learned something from the endless number of rainbows USC completed on them last year)
Washington State
Nevada
Hawaii
Arkansas

im def on Pitt.

Wazzu makes sense but think I like the over better, havnt decided yet.

Hate that Utah still ain’t played, feel like that gotta be a disadvantage .

Nevada and ark both interest me just havnt dug into either yet.

I got no clue bout Hawaii this year.

I think I might have Rutgers ml inside mine, Mtsu is gaining my curiosity, love pitt as mentioned, and think I’m getting close with liberty! After that I don’t have any other dogs on my sheet at moment. Few favs under a td and bunch of totals.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I didn't see any of the LV - UVA game, but I do see that LV's turnover problems continue. LV has lost 3 turnovers in 5 games this year! Their -12 margin is the worst in the ACC both because they lose so many, but they are also last with creating or gaining so few, just 6 on the year. Syracuse has been pretty good/lucky at creating/getting turnovers, their gain is 17, tied for the best in the ACC....Cuse has lost 14 for a slight positive margin. Most of those 14 are INTs (10) and those QBs who threw 9 of the 10 will not be playing this week as Syracuse gives JaCobian Morgan his second start who played well vs BC, outside of being sacked 4x, he provided some of Syracuse's best QB play of the year.

Syracuse D is bad, can't hide that, their effort vs BC probably has as much to do with BC being deflated off their CLemson game as anything else....Orange is tied-2nd worst in the league with 464 yards allowed per game. Louisville's D allows 60 less yards per game...but LV has a worse ypp allowed of 5.95 to 5.75 for Orange.

The difference has been for Syracuse is their poor O has repeatedly put their D back on the field, while LV, when they are not turning it over, does sometimes have a good offense. Tonight however, LV will be without one or perhaps two of their best players, RB Hawkins who opted out and WR Atwell who could miss his second straight game dealing with injury.

Louisville has crushed Syracuse in many of their recent meetings. There are plenty of reasons why LV is a hefty favorite here, most having to do with deficiencies on the Syracuse end. I know LV remains capable and explosive on O, but with their continued struggle with turnovers and poor defense they could be a vulnerable big favorite.

Syracuse's fight at Clemson and a solid performance vs BC atleast show me that they have not thrown in the towel on the season despite many reasons to do so. I can't say I would be surprised if LV blows them out, because we have seen that happen before, at the same time, I think I am willing to take a small shot on this Syracuse team to upset a pretty unpredictable LV bunch. I mean at +770, why not throw $10 or $20 on it? On Baber's three losing Syracuse teams, he has pulled a DD dog upset each season (+20 VT, +23.5 Clem, +10.5 Duke). LV has been upset in 2 of their 3 favorite roles vs ACC this year, one of which was a 2-5 GT team.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Added this one....3, 4, & 5-teamer RR:

New Mexico +276
Florida International +241
Kansas State +337
Tennessee U +332
Texas State +176
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $2,081.45

BOLTA!!
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
I like that New Mexico pick. I saw them for the first time last week. Only three games and they already look like a Rocky Long defense. Bunch of tough guys who play hard every down. Third in the nation in rushing D, only giving up 80 yards a game.

Had decided to take Washington State, but their QB is out with covid and have to ;play one of two freshmen, neither with any experience
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I like that New Mexico pick. I saw them for the first time last week. Only three games and they already look like a Rocky Long defense. Bunch of tough guys who play hard every down. Third in the nation in rushing D, only giving up 80 yards a game.

Had decided to take Washington State, but their QB is out with covid and have to ;play one of two freshmen, neither with any experience
Rocky always had great success vs the triple option too. Just need to find a way to close out games. I think they get it done tonight.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
- New Mexico has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings (although AF won 44-22 as 23.5 pt favs last year - it was just 21-16 at one point in the 3rd Q. 2018 was the noncover +13.5)
- New Mexico won 3 straight upsets vs AF 2015-2017
- Rocky Long's SD State teams won all 7 games vs AF including his first season as a 7 pt dog (full disclosure, his last 4 years in NM AF won 3 of the 4 by DD)
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I didn't see any of the LV - UVA game, but I do see that LV's turnover problems continue. LV has lost 3 turnovers in 5 games this year! Their -12 margin is the worst in the ACC both because they lose so many, but they are also last with creating or gaining so few, just 6 on the year. Syracuse has been pretty good/lucky at creating/getting turnovers, their gain is 17, tied for the best in the ACC....Cuse has lost 14 for a slight positive margin. Most of those 14 are INTs (10) and those QBs who threw 9 of the 10 will not be playing this week as Syracuse gives JaCobian Morgan his second start who played well vs BC, outside of being sacked 4x, he provided some of Syracuse's best QB play of the year.

Syracuse D is bad, can't hide that, their effort vs BC probably has as much to do with BC being deflated off their CLemson game as anything else....Orange is tied-2nd worst in the league with 464 yards allowed per game. Louisville's D allows 60 less yards per game...but LV has a worse ypp allowed of 5.95 to 5.75 for Orange.

The difference has been for Syracuse is their poor O has repeatedly put their D back on the field, while LV, when they are not turning it over, does sometimes have a good offense. Tonight however, LV will be without one or perhaps two of their best players, RB Hawkins who opted out and WR Atwell who could miss his second straight game dealing with injury.

Louisville has crushed Syracuse in many of their recent meetings. There are plenty of reasons why LV is a hefty favorite here, most having to do with deficiencies on the Syracuse end. I know LV remains capable and explosive on O, but with their continued struggle with turnovers and poor defense they could be a vulnerable big favorite.

Syracuse's fight at Clemson and a solid performance vs BC atleast show me that they have not thrown in the towel on the season despite many reasons to do so. I can't say I would be surprised if LV blows them out, because we have seen that happen before, at the same time, I think I am willing to take a small shot on this Syracuse team to upset a pretty unpredictable LV bunch. I mean at +770, why not throw $10 or $20 on it? On Baber's three losing Syracuse teams, he has pulled a DD dog upset each season (+20 VT, +23.5 Clem, +10.5 Duke). LV has been upset in 2 of their 3 favorite roles vs ACC this year, one of which was a 2-5 GT team.

I'm getting scared out of the ML. Will look for ATS alone.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
Any concern that the New Mexico Run D numbers have benefitted from facing the two teams at the bottom of the MWC in terms of attempts per game (Nev and SJ St) and their other team is Hawaii who only ran it 28x vs NM, their fewest attempts of the season.

I'm just a little hesitant to think the personnel on this NM team is somehow ready of this. I know the coaches are, have they had the proper time to coach the players up (pretty much all new DL and LBs)?
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I like that New Mexico pick. I saw them for the first time last week. Only three games and they already look like a Rocky Long defense. Bunch of tough guys who play hard every down. Third in the nation in rushing D, only giving up 80 yards a game.

Had decided to take Washington State, but their QB is out with covid and have to ;play one of two freshmen, neither with any experience

Hadn’t heard that yet but guess I can stop worrying bout that total. I see it has went down some now that I looked. That had fallen down to round 7th-8th on my list anyways so don’t gotta worry bout what might still get scratched. Lol
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Any concern that the New Mexico Run D numbers have benefitted from facing the two teams at the bottom of the MWC in terms of attempts per game (Nev and SJ St) and their other team is Hawaii who only ran it 28x vs NM, their fewest attempts of the season.

I'm just a little hesitant to think the personnel on this NM team is somehow ready of this. I know the coaches are, have they had the proper time to coach the players up (pretty much all new DL and LBs)?
Thats the big question. The coaches know how to defend it. But can a depleted rag tag squad actually do it.?
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Any concern that the New Mexico Run D numbers have benefitted from facing the two teams at the bottom of the MWC in terms of attempts per game (Nev and SJ St) and their other team is Hawaii who only ran it 28x vs NM, their fewest attempts of the season.

Not to me. Nevada has a very good running attack led by Toa Taua, best MW running back I've seen this year (not to mention they are undefeated). He physically beat down the D in the two games I've seen, including Wyoming which prides itself on being tough. I was surprised how New Mexico stood up against him. The D was still going strong at the end of the game.

I don't see why AF would be any mystery to them. They've played against that attack every year they've been in college

I don't see the D having a problem, but I was not impressed by their QB or their offense., Plus I haven't seen Air Force play so I don't know what their D looks like

I don't know what Hawaii is like, but New Mexico played two of the toughest, most physical teams in the MAC, two of the best, and stood up to both
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
But when the game was on the line Nevada knocked Wyoming off the ball.

One factor about New Mexico no one knows how to evaluate is they are still living in Las Vegas. They've been there two or three weeks and will go on living there and practicing there and playing their games there the rest of the season.

I'm not playing them because I quit betting on losing teams years ago, but I;ll be careful betting against them the rest of the season
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I only deal with trends and numbers and, from what I’ve researched, I can tell you this AF line of ~ 7pts over NM is pure bait. All the games that came up in my queries, with criteria similar to this game, had DD lines. BOL tonight boys!
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
But when the game was on the line Nevada knocked Wyoming off the ball.

I think we watched a different game. Nevada was absolutely running on fumes that second half and especially 4th quarter. Almost couldn't get a first down to save their lives.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
No doubt. They were shot by the end of the game. May even have been lucky to win because Wyoming came back strong. So strong in fact I bet them the following week. I think I even got points

But the fact is Nevada got the W and Wyoming got the L

I've liked Nevada at home for years under Ault and now under Norvell I still like them.

Taua is unknown but has just short of 3,000 yards rushing and receiving and he's only three games into his junior year. He's a killer in the passing game because at about 5-8 225 or so, he just runs over D-back on passing plays
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I think San Diego State - Nevada should be pretty terrific tomorrow. Nevada has a chance because of how one dimensional SD St is, but that Aztec D will make things hard on Pack. Will be one to watch for sure.

So I saved a little money laying off a potential ML with Cuse, man, that was rough. Thankfully there have been 3 other games on so I didn't just have to think about how bad they played. And it wasn't even like LV O played well, but their D did for sure. Cuse issues helped in that regard as well.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Central Florida has a chance. Cincinnati soft schedule and easy lines so far. No question a good team doing what they should but UCF is a monster at home (22-1) recently.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Very frustrating.....two dogs (EMU & NM) this past week everything I researched said these two were great picks and they don't even cover the spread. This is my last two of the weekend and am doubling down with the first one and second one is a completely off the wall type of longshot....Kansas State is my strongest looking play. IU can hang for a half I think and also Kentucky can too if they play like they did @ Tennessee. The MLs for these two 1st halves were just too good to pass on....

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:

Florida International +241
Kansas State +362
Middle Tennessee State +352
Tennessee U +322
Texas State +179
Risking $12.16 (16 parlays at $0.76) To Win $1,913.86

2 & 3-teamer RRs:
Kansas State +362
Indiana +541 for 1st Half
Kentucky +1321 for 1st Half
Risking $12.32 (4 parlays at $3.08) To Win $1,857.76

BOLTA!!
 
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