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Wednesday Parlay Preview Article


CTG Junior Moderator
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 3:07 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo

Robbie Ray Looks Great Today

Tampa Bay is known for stacking its roster and its lineups with left-handed hitting.

A fun fact in this regard is that Tampa Bay was the first team in MLB history to field a lineup consisting in all left-handed hitters.

A problem with relying heavily on left-handed batters often arises when the opposing pitcher is also left-handed because he will likely be more effective against same-handed batters than against opposite-handed ones.

This is the case with Toronto starter Robbie Ray. One reason why he matches up well with the Rays is that left-handed batters are hitting .179 and slugging .359 against him.

His strong history against Tampa Bay's left-handed hitters helps explain why the Rays collectively bat .179 and slug .333 in a combined total of 117 at-bats versus him.

The struggles of left-handed batters against Ray only create a partial explanation because right-handed Ray batters also struggle, historically speaking, against him.

One reason why Ray is comfortable against right-handed batters is that he is comfortable throwing a curveball and change-up, which are classic weapons against opposite-handed batters.

Randy Arozarena, for example, is 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts in his career facing Ray.

Michael Wacha vs. Blue Jay Batters

Michael Wacha is in a tough spot against Toronto batters.

Primarily, Wacha throws a fastball, change-up, and slider. These three pitches combine for nearly 95 percent of his arsenal.

Toronto batters, however, rank eighth in slugging against these three pitches combined from righties.

They had a rare hiccup last game. But they had scored eight runs or many more in each of their previous four games. They have made a habit of bouncing back after the exceptional hiccup.

This is still, therefore, a hot lineup, and one that matches up well with the Tampa Bay starter.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 6:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh

Fade Mitch Keller

Despite rediscovering their hitting form yesterday, the Reds lost to lowly Pittsburgh. This loss could end up hurting them in the Wild Card race.

But they are still in the thick of the competition for the final Wild Card spot. So they will be determined to bounce back today.

They have a superb opportunity to do so against Pirate starter Mitch Keller, who matches up poorly against them.

Keller throws, primarily, a fastball, slider, and curveball. These three pitches make up just over 95 percent of his repertoire.

Red batters rank sixth in slugging .448 against his pitches from righties.

As one would expect, they have accumulated a strong history against Keller.

In a combined total of 54 at-bats, they bat .333 and slug .685 with Keller on the mound.

Joey Votto, for example, is 2-for-4 with a homer in his career facing Keller.

Vladimir Gutierrez

Red starter Vladimir Gutierrez might not have the most attractive-looking ERA.

But his ERA is as high as it is largely because of just a few catastrophic games.

I like that two of those catastrophes were recent. In his last start, he rediscovered his positive form by limiting the Cubs to two hits and one run in five innings.

Gutierrez's favorite pitches are his fastball, slider, and curveball. These three pitches make up nearly 90 percent of his arsenal.

He matches up well against Pirate batters, who rank 29th in slugging .356 against these pitches from righties.

The Verdict

Expect Toronto's lineup to bounce back against Tampa Bay's Michael Wacha and expect the Reds to blast Pirate starter Mitch Keller.

For the above reasons, parlay the Blue Jays first-half run-line with the Reds first-half run-line.

Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays First-Half RL at -145 & Reds First-Half +RL at -120 at +210 with Bovada

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