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Wednesday Discussion Thread

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Keuchel lost the battle with Bieber since he had really poor control for one inning, which saw CLE put up a 4-spot and his lineup couldn't catch up against the bullpen despite notching 3 against Biebs. Since then, injuries have really hurt them in an NL park as they're now playing backups throughout the OF with Leury, Hamilton hitting 7-8 today plus Vaughn playing out of position in LF as a 1B

Missing the DH hurts as that means no Mercedes today, Madrigal hitting 2nd kinda removes a threat at the top, too. Don't like La Russa and with Moustakas back the CIN lineup looks more dangerous to me.

Sonny does not go deep in games, has great K totals but that's only a piece of pitching in today's game. CIN bullpen is a disaster, but i came into this hoping to confirm my CHiSox lean into a play and i'm not sure odds reflecting a 46% chance to win is enough of a payday for me at the moment.

Gray constantly overpriced and his bullpen is bad, expect Keuchel can outpitch him but his pitch to contact ways require superb control and he clearly didn't have that last start. CHW bullpen fully available, though i still have some questions about it
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Sahlen Field

Sahlen Field’s center field sits facing South-Southeast with an 8 to 10 MPH breeze prevailing out from the right field foul pole to the left field foul pole all year long. Both the left field and right fields angle back from a 325 foot foul pole before squaring off at the power alleys (371 ft. LCF and 367 ft. RCF). The alleys then angle back inward forming a pointed A-Frame center field at 404 ft. Sahlen Field most resembles Nationals Park’s shape but it’s 12 feet shorter to left, 6 feet shorter to left-center, 2 feet deeper to center, 3 feet shorter to right-center and 10 feet shorter to right.

Sahlen Field has definitely played as a very interesting park thus far. Despite the fact that left and left-center are the most offensively friendly fields it’s the left handed batters that have thrived the most. This does make some sense. The prevailing winds are out to left and opposite field balls are typically hit on a higher trajectory than pulled balls. This higher trajectory and steady winds gives the ball a chance to fly further than normal. Couple that with the friendly confines of 325 feet to left and 371 feet to the left-center alley and you have a recipe that serves up the number one ranked home run and RBIcon factors for left handed batters in all of baseball.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Webb had some preseason hype off a good spring, lost his spot in the rotation however until Cueto got hurt. Has been good since returning to it, but home to Miami on getaway day isn't that impressive to me and SD hasn't been hitting (though that looks better). He struggled with COL at home 4/10, saying something since COL offense is so bad on the road

SF lineup never looks good, but i swear they love to hit when they're on the road and Coors obviously is a great spot to do that. Professional hitters giving professional ABs will make Gray work, though Jon has shown flashes of being a dominant pitcher he just can never put it together for a full season or maybe even start. Some FOMO here as SF seems to cash on the road a fair amount and i rarely back them, but should have swept the double-header yesterday if not for blowing a 6-2 lead in the final inning ayer.

McGee has been great so far, expect he'll bounce back from that poor outing last night. Some concern about SF getting the ball to him after Webb as their setup men are not established to me just yet. Much bigger concerns about the COL pen, though, Bard has been struggling and i wouldn't be surprised to see the young flamethrower Lawrence take that job soon. Not sure he's ready for high leverage stuff just yet, so that likely means Givens who has been pretty bad since coming over from BAL and the rest of the pen had to cover 6 innings in g1 after Marquez only got two outs yesterday.

So, COL lineup looks better but not sure it is. Don't love the SF bullpen before the closer, but do NOT like COL at all. Best way for COL to win this before extras/walkoff is for Gray to outpitch Webb, which is possible. Will be scary late for COL pen to try and hold that lead, but last AB is worth something so SF pricing at 49.3% to win may be reasonable though this feels like a coinflip
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Stroman has moved to a favorite with good numbers to start the year, but two hitting coaches fired thanks to how poorly the Mets are swinging. That is an immediate alert to the home dog, especially with Kim who may not offer length but should be able to knife through this NYM lineup.

NYM looked a little better on SNB, but Pillar cleaning up says about all we need to know about that lineup. Contact hitter Alonso hitting 2nd is also funny, same for Conforto hitting 3rd.

Rainout yesterday gave StL pen some rest, which is necessary. Also, 7 innings means less of it and Kim's outing will seem longer without those additional two innings to cover. Some relief offered by that to NYM as well since Diaz is iffy to be available with back tightness here, but even a potentially light-hitting StL lineup should not be an underdog here imho
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Stroman has moved to a favorite with good numbers to start the year, but two hitting coaches fired thanks to how poorly the Mets are swinging. That is an immediate alert to the home dog, especially with Kim who may not offer length but should be able to knife through this NYM lineup.

NYM looked a little better on SNB, but Pillar cleaning up says about all we need to know about that lineup. Contact hitter Alonso hitting 2nd is also funny, same for Conforto hitting 3rd.

Rainout yesterday gave StL pen some rest, which is necessary. Also, 7 innings means less of it and Kim's outing will seem longer without those additional two innings to cover. Some relief offered by that to NYM as well since Diaz is iffy to be available with back tightness here, but even a potentially light-hitting StL lineup should not be an underdog here imho
Feels like 6 might be 2 too many but I hate taking under that number, guess 1st 5 could be worth a look
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Ohtani enters with a big K-rate (7+ in all three starts), but not going deep in games. LAA was losing early so they didn't go to the good pen, but they were scrambling to build that pen late in spring training and Guerra > Iglesias is not that great now that Watson is hurt or something?

TB on the other side going Kittredge as the opener followed by Yarbrough. Castillo hit the IL today with a groin problem, disappointing since he was one of the most reliable relievers in MLB. Without him, Springs probably stays as a setup guy and maybe they give Strickland the save chance tonight? If not him, Thompson comes up next. Reed worked last night, McHugh added to the roster due to the IL move.

So there are plenty of questionable arms all over these bullpens, LAA wins if they score a ton of runs but their lineup is gross tonight. Ohtani not in the lineup leaves a hole, but should be able to overpower a weaker TB lineup that has nearly won the series already. I will always trust the WS qualifier, but don't have much respect for LAA either.

This line is home team with Ohtani on the mound then very little after him in the bullpen and a horrid lineup with only Trout as a real threat. TB has proven they can score without a great lineup on paper and 1-3 have some pedigree if they haven't been entirely reliable lately. I respect the TB bullpen and manager far more than I do LAA and Maddon
 
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