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UFC on ESPN+ 45 - UFC Apex - Las Vegas, Nevada

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
So so card with the long awaited Leon Edwards return, dude may be on eof the top 5 or 6 most under rated UFC fighters

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Great fight breakdowns and general info here: Guide to UFC on ESPN+ 45: Edwards vs. Muhammad - Fight Game Media


--- MY 2021 UFC CARDS SO FAR ---

MAR 06 15-12 +30.47u
FEB 27 6-9 -3.59u
FEB 20 12-11 +7.74u
FEB 13 7-5 +1.52u
FEB 06 11-11 +2u
JAN 16 4-15 -30.88u
JAN 20 15-14 +15.52u
JAN 23 10-13 -2.9u
----------------------

TOTAL-- 81-92 +19.87u

Finally off the snide with an excellent night last week, although the great majority of my success was due to the Yan disqualification...but wft, I'll take it! :rubbingin:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Early action​
  • 2209 Witt wins inside distance +244
    .85/2.07
  • 2202 Jason Witt +110 vs Matthew Semelsberger
    2/2.2
  • 1909 Haqparast wins inside distance +105
    1.92/2.02

Chick fights in #2 and #3 are garbage that I cant watch, much less bet, but I'll be back after the 4th bout with more play. GLTA :cheers3:

randoms...

  • Rani Yahya -290 ...Yahya’s time is slowly running out with the UFC, but he is still a fabulous sub artist who should be more than able to trick Rodriguez to the mat. Rodriguez’s kicking game leaves him wide open for the takedown, and while his experience on the mat may allow him to initially survive, he won’t be able to last long in Yahya’s world...probably sub round 2-3.
  • Nasrat Haqparast -525 / ITD +105 ...For Garcia’s best chance to win he desperately needs the fight on the mat. Unfortunately, Garcia has repeatedly struggled to take his foes to the ground and has been forced instead to knock them down. The slick counter-punching and distance management of Haqparast can piece apart Garcia, while his solid TDD ensures he doesn’t venture away from the stand-up. Quite likely Nasrat gets the finish/KO
  • Jason Witt +110 / ITD +244 ...Semelsberger is an entertaining striker, but this isn’t an ideal match-up for him. Witt is a ferocious wrestler and will happily grind out an opponent until the opportunity for a submission arises. Semelsberger’s accuracy on the feet is exceptionally good, but he was bullied in the clinch at the regional level and this will only play into Witt’s hands. I could see a late finish here on the ground.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[2-3 -2.57u]​
  • 1809 Jourdain wins inside distance +105
    2/2.1
  • 1825 Jourdain wins in round 3 +850
    1/8.5

That's better.​

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[4-3 +8.03u]​
1611 Hill wins by 3 round decision -170
1.7/1

Nothing quite like a +850 winner to get back on track :breakdance:

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-3 +9.03u]​
  • 1542 Stewart points handicap -3½ +150 vs Anders points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    1.4/2.1
  • 1502 Darren Stewart -165 vs Eryk Anders
    3.63/2.2

Stewart ...Anders is a physical specimen, but that has always been his strongest attribute. While he has attempted to improve his activity on the feet, he is too often at fault for allowing opponents to fire off combinations unanswered. Stewart isn’t going to win a Golden Gloves anytime soon, but the Brit has ironed out many of the technical flaws in his boxing and is competent enough to watch out for Anders’ bursts of offence. Moreover, if the fight is to end up in the clinch (both men’s preferred arena), Stewart’s constant chipping knees and elbows will see him clean up on the scorecards

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-3-2 +9.03u]​
  • 1407 Kape wins by 3 round decision +260
    .5/1.3
  • 1401 Manel Kape -110 vs Matheus Nicolau
    1.54/1.4

lol, I thought for a moment I was gonna be rescued by an illegal knee 2 straight weeks...but not to be..no contest

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-5-2 +6.99u]

tough decision on that one, I thought Kape won but it was close
  • 1311 Martinez wins by 3 round decision +115
    1/1.15
  • 1302 Jonathan Martinez -280 vs Davey Grant
    4.2/1.5

Martinez ...Although Grant’s boxing has drastically improved since his UFC debut, he will still struggle to work inside the barrage of front kicks that Martinez brings down the middle. While Grant would have a clear advantage on the mat, his struggle has always been securing the takedown. If the fight is to stay standing, as expected, Martinez’s kicking game offers more than Grant’s crisp but limited combinations...probable decision

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-7-2 +1.79u]
  1. 1201 Dan Ige -162 vs Gavin Tucker
    3.65/2.25
  2. 1201 Dan Ige/Gavin Tucker Over 2½ -250
    2.5/1

Wow...2nd one tonight that got caught with big shot plus 2 with rock jaws that would not stay down...anyways moving on

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[6-8-2 +1.54u]​
  • 1131 Circunov wins by submission +155
    .8/1.24
  • 1102 Misha Circunov -120 vs Ryan Spann
    4.2/3.5

WOW, never expected that outta Ige

Misha Cirkunov ...Spann is a lumbering giant on the feet, but he has tightened up his counter boxing somewhat since his sloppy striking display against Nogueira. There is no doubting that Superman carries a ton of power, and with his freakishly long limbs, it can only serve to benefit his overall game. Spann does struggle with pacing himself well over three rounds though, and has shown a chin quite capable of cracking (i.e. Johnny Walker and Sam Alvey). Cirkunov is an extremely underrated grinder at LHW who is at risk for however long this fight remains standing. Spann hasn’t proven too difficult to engage in the clinch, however, and in the grappling department, Cirkunov’s freak strength probably sees him eventually take Spann to the mat. Luis Henrique, a very average wrestler, was able to secure four messy takedowns against Spann. Cirkunov and his tighter boxing should be able to achieve an early takedown far more effectively and cruise to an easy win and possible sub.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[6-10-2 -3.46u]
  • 1062 Edwards points handicap -5½ -130 vs Muhammad points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    2.6/2
  • 002 Leon Edwards -295 vs Belal Muhammad
    9.44/3.2

Wow, I'm taking it hard tonight. Need the main to finish positive.

Edward’s considerable 602-day absence from the Octagon is a factor that should not be brushed aside lightly. The limey is irrefutably a top-15 WW, but anybody would struggle with such an extended absence. Worse still, Edwards has always struggled with maintaining output during the championship rounds – despite his regular success in five-rounders. As the in-form man, Muhammad’s pressure boxing and grinding wrestling could force Edward’s to fight at a pace that drains the gas tank. Muhammad’s tendency to overextend on punches, and his jumbled footwork against an opponent moving laterally, often leaves him trapped to an opponent seeking to clinch/shoot. Neither man holds a clear wrestling differential, but Edward’s laser-sharp elbows will find their home regularly against a fighter who often lingers in the pocket. Edwards is far more composed in all facets of martial arts, however Muhammad’s tenacity and all-out aggression could make this a difficult fight for the judges to score and a tough test for Leon.

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