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UFC on ESPN+ 43 - UFC Apex - Las Vegas

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Looks like an entertaining card tonight with lots of big boys :boxing:

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Logged a small profit last week and actually 2 straight weeks, but still working from behind after dreadful January

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Tough looking card, but there may be a learning oppertunity for me and a lot of my effort will be getting a good look at fighters and recording accurate notes as I'm not adequately familiar with a lot of the undercard. Most of my picks or leans here are based off the human element for this one as opposed to fighting styles. When dealing with the human element I look for behavior that is odd, flat, contradicting, confusing, unprofessional, or chaotic. More often that not those who fall into these categories are more likely losing. It takes pinpointing someone exhibiting these traits PLUS an opponent capable of handling business for this methodology to really work. Example: while Ode Osbourne and Julian Marquez exhibited odd behavior, their recent opponents were not UFC caliber fighters and thus were not able to pull off upsets. Anyway, here are some fighters quite possibly fitting the bill:
  • Casey O'Neill started the lead in to this fight with all access video blog because she wanted to document everything but it fizzled out on the 2nd episode 8 days ago. In that vlog there were multiple moments that brought me to the realization that this is just another fighter, not a budding star. There are serious UFC prospects out there, I don't find this to be one of them.
  • Eddie Wineland has been looking absolutely awful to me so much that I had to unfollow him. Knowing almost nothing of his opponent but the output on Wineland's social media felt lifeless.
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  • Klose gave off bully like traits by dissing his opponent saying he looks like he smells bad, but also shook his hand. Looking at the staredowns, he better be taking Pena very seriously. Pena dwarfs him and looked more live...especially at these odds
  • Daukaus is the #1 odd trait exhibitor on this card. He's expecting to be a top 2 ranked heavyweight by the end of this year which is a near impossible statement. He went on record being pro-weed which is a bit odd because I'm sure he's arrested people for weed. Just 1 fight ago his policework was part of his lore but now he's talking of leaving the force to train full time. He's saying that he's fine with going to the ground here which is not what you want. I've found him to be contradicting and this fight is more of a matter of is his opponent still capable of winning. I would hope for Chris to win convincingly before his bubble gets burst in his next fight but the time for the bursting could very well be now.
  • Vieira seems flat leading up to this bout, all throughout fight week, missed weight, and did not do well in the staredown. Unfortunately her skillset is such a perfect fit to beat her opponent. Still, there's no way you can bet her with confidence. If Ketlen still looks flat walking to the octagon I might have to go with Kunitskaya. Very disappointed in Ketlen's overall presentation.
  • Not liking Blaydes momentum from his last fight until today. The Volkov fight got him a lot of heat where he initially said he didn't care to be exciting, then on second thought said he would stand more, then came into this one refusing to stand or sell the fight as well as the manner in which that fight went was rather ridiculous with Blaydes getting taken down at the end. He's literally never talked to his boss which for a title contender is just strange. Regardless of what media says I don't think he's in line for a title shot because Ngannou has locked him out of it and he's not much of a draw. There's a hidden element of why are multiple teammates of his losing because their wrestling isn't good enough? Is he not having a positive impact on his surroundings? This huge line just makes me like it more, fight will be much closer than expected and Lewis can win definitely win. At these odds I see no way not to back Lewis.

This is just one manner to try and get an edge...as there are multiple factors anytime they get in the octagon.

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
  • Andrei Arlovski in recent years has played the part of spoiler for young up-and-comers. He’s found a career resurgence of sorts in his old age, he’s been very hard to finish (the only guys getting him out of there in the past 4 years being Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik) and has had a tendency to fight to very close decision results. I’m very high on Tom Aspinall, he’s gotten the vast majority of his work done very early and on the feet, but his background is actually in wrestling and jiu jitsu. He has attributed his vast improvement and comfort both on the feet and just fighting in general to training with Tyson Fury. He spoke about being anxious early in his career and then had a sit down with Fury and came out of it a changed man. He’s extremely athletic and my favourite thing about him is that he doesn’t rush things. He is very calculated and throws a lot of feints and is more than happy to wait and see what you’re going to throw at him before he engages. I think Arlovski is a measuring stick to see how far you will be able to go in the division at this point in his career. The guys who finished him are in the top five, the guys who beat him in decisions are hovering around the top 15 and the guys who he beat are likely not going to break into the rankings with the skill sets they currently have. I believe Aspinall has a ceiling on the same level as Rozenstruik and Ngannou (top 5 and possibly champion in the future) and the correct mentality to get himself there. AtML odds I would probably go with AA +230ish as he usually does just enough to out point his opponent, but I don't believe he can make 3 rounds withTom so it'll most likely be Aspinall -115 ITD for me.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
  • A complete stylistic clash.
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    Daukaus is a very smooth and accurate puncher. He’s got good footwork when he’s on the offense and is very calm and comfortable standing. Oleinik moves like a mummy and throws the some of the sloppiest punches I’ve ever seen in MMA but it’s just a smokescreen of Russian hammers to get you backed up against the cage so he can get his hands on you. Watching Daukaus clips, I’ve found he doesn’t really slip and counter, he’s a catch and throw type of boxer. He will wait for his opponent to throw their combo, plant his feet or back up straight while the punches are coming his way and then when they’re moving back to reset, he will step forward to maintain the same distance and throw his own shots. The problem with that style is that Oleinik never stops throwing his looping punches until his opponent’s back hits the cage. If Daukaus can’t get Oleinik out of there in R1, then I doubt he'll be able to keep him off of him. Almost all of Daukaus’ success comes in the first round and tails off really badly the longer the fight goes. His output slows down and his movement slows down really badly. Oleinik has the same problem with his gas tank, but he forces himself forward through the exhaustion and his game plan and output doesn’t really deviate when he’s tired, he just has less power in his punches. It goes without saying that if it hits the mat, Oleinik is just a MUCH better grappler and has an absurd arsenal of submissions in his toolbox. I’m backing the old Rusky, but if you are deadset on playing Daukaus because you can’t trust the old boa constrictor, early finish is the play.
 

twinkie13

Principal at Newman
Can you post boxing odds for tonight that you see available with O/U’s please?

GREAT matchup on ESPN and Broner back against mid, but couldn’t make 140 and changed to 147 late this week. decent HW fight too....

local doesn’t have yet

thanks
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Can you post boxing odds for tonight that you see available with O/U’s please?

GREAT matchup on ESPN and Broner back against mid, but couldn’t make 140 and changed to 147 late this week. decent HW fight too....

local doesn’t have yet

thanks

I haven't really followed boxing much in several years but there is quite a few tonight...here you go

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Fight #1 ~ Early start​
  • 2342 Spivak points handicap -3½ -135 vs Vanderaa points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    1.35/1
  • 2302 Sergey Spivak -245 vs Jared Vanderaa
    1.47/.6

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
  • Chas Skelly +220 ...Skelly has always been underrated throughout his impressive 7-3-1 UFC career. Skelly has an effective wrestling/BJJ style and one of the best back mounts in the game, you can’t just shake this guy off when he secures it. He has great defensive grappling as well, he always reverses positions in fights. The only problem with “the Scrapper” is that while I think his striking style is actually underrated as well (he has a nasty uppercut) he is incredibly hitable, which you obviously don’t want to be against Emmers. “Pretty Boy” has an obvious path to victory here via sprawl and brawl and deserves to be the favorite for sure but the line is overpriced imo. Emmers has good experience himself, hype, wrestling base, solid cardio, and dangerous striking. While I think Emmers could just annihilate Skelly on the feet, if Skelly takes his back he will absolutely live for a victory. We’ve never seen Emmer’s back taken in the UFC and never really in a compromising grappling position in general besides Giga on top for a few seconds. I think it’s because Emmers loves to be the aggressive wrestler himself, we see it in his fights where he loves to shoot takedowns to secure rounds. Against Skelly, who is very good at reversing position, this could be a bad move. Emmers does have impressive wins over phenomenal grapplers Sandhagen and Moises years ago on the regional scene but Skelly’s back mount really is a whole nother animal. Emmers is also low key hitable himself, and the fact that his sub defense is questionable makes Skelly an absolutely live dog on this card, especially if you can get it north of +200.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[3-0 +2.65u]
  • 2115 Skelly wins in round 1 +1000t
    .5/5
  • 2101 Chas Skelly +220 vs Jamall Emmers
    1.25/2.75

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Damn, first time I ever seen that, cancelled after one guy makes the walk. :doh:
  1. 2001 Shana Dobson +142 vs Casey O'Neill
    1.05/1.49
  2. 2001 Shana Dobson/Casey O'Neill Over 2½ -215
    2.58/1.2
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[3-3 -3.68u]​
  • 1841 Castaneda points handicap -3½ +185 vs Wineland points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    .8/1.48
  • 1801 John Castaneda -120 vs Eddie Wineland
    3/2.5
  • 1801 John Castaneda/Eddie Wineland Over 2½ -197
    1.38/.7

Well damn, that seemed like an early stopage to me. But that's the way the big strikes bounce.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-5-2.18u]​
  • 1509 Aspinall wins inside distance -125
    5/4
  • 1501 Andrei Arlovski/Tom Aspinall Over 1½ -147
    1.47
    /1
  • 1502 Tom Aspinall -255 vs Andrei Arlovski
    1.53/.6

OK, now it's time to step my game up!

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[6-5 +0.95u]​
  • 409 Hawes wins inside distance +140
    .8/1.12
  • 1402 Phil Hawes -115 vs Nassourdine Imavov
    2.99/2.6

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[7-6 +2.75u]
  • 1327 Oleinik wins by submission +220
    1/2.2
  • 1301 Alexey Oleinik +190 vs Chris Daukaus
    1/1.9

Alexey has fucking 47 subs in his pro career...how fukn crazy is that?

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[7-8 +0.75u​
  • 1201 Darrick Minner/Charles Rosa Over 2½ +165
    1/1.65
  • 1202 Charles Rosa -165 vs Darrick Minner
    4.95/3

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[9-9 +1.79u]​
  • 1005 Lewis wins inside distance +405
    .6/2.43
  • 1015 Lewis wins in round 1 +1200
    .5/6
  • 1001 Derrick Lewis +335 vs Curtis Blaydes
    1.2/4.02

Beast Time!!


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