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UFC on ESPN+ 42 - Apex ~ Las Vegas, Nevada

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Get a decent card with limited fans in the Apex today...early start 5pm EST

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I'm looking to improve after a shitty January.

MY 2021 UFC CARDS...

JAN 16 4-15 -30.88u
JAN 20 15-14 +15.52u
JAN 23 10-13 -2.9u
------------------------
2010 -- 29-42 -18.26u

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Random bs and three I really like...
  • Beneil Dariush -117 ...You may not remember but we've seen this fight before and there was a clear winner, Beneil Dariush. What happened in that fight? Beneil controlled the entire fight, having some success on his feet, winning the wrestling exchanges, and controlling top position in each round cruising to an easy decision win. So what has changed since then? Well Ferreira has become a much better striker, more technical than powerful, but much better. He is also fighting with more pressure trying to wear down his opponents. But overall Dariush still appears the more technical and powerful striker and will continue to have the wrestling advantage as well. If Dariush is having trouble on the feet or with the forward pressure the takedown should be there for him when needed. Only worry is Dariush has not shown the best chin and is willing to stand and bang; just have to hope he doesn't get caught.
  • Joselyne Edwards +205 ...Joselyne's ceiling is really high. Crazy reach for her weight class and she mixes in kicks well. Rosa is a solid technical striker, but I see Edwards' reach & power giving Rosa problems. If rosa tries for the takedown, Edwards has shown decent jiu jitsu. I think Joselyne is a live dog and quite jooicy at these odds
  • Alistair Overeem +175 ... Reem is a more complete fighter. He had a great fight against Sakai where he knew when to slow down and when to pick up the pace. He improved SO MUCH in the past year and his fight IQ is one of the best in the HW division. He lost to Jairzinho in the last 4 seconds of a fight that he dominated every round. He even started to wrestle and included aggressive takedowns in his game, something he has never done before until his fight against Jairzinho. He dominated Sakai so much in the ground that I think Sakai took too much unnecessary damage in that fight. Reem has been in few fights over 3 rounds, but recently he showed that he can shine in the later rounds. I'm still gutted on how his fight against Jairzinho ended. People might say a lot about how "Reem doesn't have a chin", but he showed that he can protect himself better, and avoid getting into unnecessary brawls. His "one last run for the belt" is something to really take into consideration as well. Volkov is a good fighter with an aggressive style. Him and Reem both lost to Blaydes, but Volkov last few wins are vs less skilled fighters. He beat Greg Hardy (which I don't consider a fighter, just an asshole that likes to beat people up), Werdum (really out of shape and waaaay past his prime) and Walt Harris (great fighter, and I feel bad for everything Harris has been through in his personal life). I am not saying that it wasn't Volkov's merit, but I think that Volkov wasn't a good match up for them at that time. Really I believe Volkov is a solid aggressive fighter, but Reem is a more complete package. Volkov has increased his fight weight considerably, and that can be problem when it comes to cardio and how to manage speed in the later rounds. I think Volkov is going to improve a lot through the next two years, but I can't see him getting past Reem today. I think there's a good chance for a stoppage as well and it could come by sub or KO.

other leans...
  • Mike Rodriguez - likely by KN as Im unbelievably cold on Marques. Rodriguez has continued to develop his striking, and once he fully masters his ridiculous reach, he can prove to be more than a threat in the clinch)
  • Cody Stamann - late KO...Stamann's best shot at finding a stoppage is likely against Askar Askar. Unproven outside of the regional scene, Askar carries the power to cause a shock and remain with the UFC, but he likely struggles with Stamann's angles and calculated pressure
  • Sandhagen - The real question is whether Sandhagen can find the finish or not. Edgar hasn't fallen off of a cliff, and remains a challenge to the top contenders, but he no longer possesses the edge amongst the elite. Whether Sandhagen can be invited into the top Bantamweight's Boys Club is yet to be seen - but after his destruction over Moraes, it would be wise to answer his incessant knocking on the door. I really like Cory but -385 is too tall, I'll have find a more creative way to play this one
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Fight #1 -- Ready set, Let's Fucking Go!​
2242 Osbourne points handicap -3½ -135 vs Rivera points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
1.89/1.4

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[1-0 +1.4u]​
  • 2142 Valiev points handicap* -3½ -225 vs Day points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    1.35/.6
  • 2101 Martin Day/Timur Valiev* Over 2½ -103
    1.03/1

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[3-0 +3u]​
  • 2012 Not Zalal by 3 round decision -170
    1.7/1
  • 2001 Seungwoo Choi +215 vs Youssef Zalal
    .8/1.72

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
5-1 +3.09u]​
  • 1805 Edwards wins inside distance +500
    .5/2.5
  • 1801 Joselyne Edwards +170 vs Karol Rosa
    1.5/2.55

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
5-3 +1.09u]​
  • 1709 Smith wins inside distance -195 vs Not Smith inside distance
    2.73/1.4
  • 1721 Smith wins in round 1* -105 vs Any other result
    .84/.8

Two straight bimbos laying on the other to beat me... SMH

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[6-4 +1.65u]​
  • 1609 Rodriguez wins inside distance -150 vs Not Rodriguez inside distance
    1.2/.8
  • 1602 Mike Rodriguez -230 vs Danilo Marques
    4.6/2

Nice eye.. UFC FN

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[7-6 +2.35u]​
  • 1301 Manel Kape/Alexandre Pantoja Over 2½ +132
    .75/.99
  • 1302 Alexandre Pantoja* -105 vs Manel Kape
    1.26/1.2

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[9-6 +4.54u]​
  • 1211 Johnson wins by 3 round decision +170
    1/1.7
  • 1202 Michael Johnson -185 vs Clay Guida
    2.22/1.2

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[9-8 +1.32u]​
  • 1109 Sandhagen wins inside distance +190
    1.2/2.28
  • 1142 Sandhagen points handicap -3½ -175 vs Edgar points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    3.5/2

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[11-8 +5.6u]​
  • 1005 Overeem wins inside distance +350
    .8/2.8
  • 1035 Overeem wins by submission +1580
    .6/9.48
  • 1001 Alistair Overeem +160 vs Alexander Volkov
    2.2/3.52

WOW, glad Frankie appears ok....that was devastating! UFC FN

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