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UFC 257

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Finally had a strong card Wednesday and even though I screwed up the last couple fights, I still netted 16.32u

Big card today, especially at the top with two great fights and the showman Conor :badass:

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randoms...
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  • Conor likely wins but there’s clear value on Dustin. Conor is definitely prepared for those later rounds but there’s a difference between being prepared and actually experiencing those 5 rounds where Dustin has been. Come round 5 maybe a fresher Dustin gets a TD and finishes him. With that said Conor probably wins. You can just see the amount of times Dustin was hit by Holloway and Hooker. When Conor lands he’s not gonna land a flurry of punches he will probably time a perfect strike. Say what you will about Cowboy and how he’s looked recently but in that fight Conor showed he still has that timing. At -200 easy bet for Conor but -320 it's pretty heavy.
  • I wanted a reason to bet Marina Rodriguez at +250 but I just a'int seeing it. She’s too passive on the ground and her TDD is just ok. I can Marina see outstriking her, she’s unpredictable and holds some power, but on the ground Marina just seems overmatched. I see Ribas changing levels if Marina is winning the striking exchanges. Calvillo and Esparza kinda exposed her there.
  • Evloev will beat up Nik Lentz. I’d stay away from -650. I’m as comfortable in him as I am in Khalil but Khalil has a much more favorable line. Evloev is susceptible to missing the mark on occasion, a risk against an experienced fighter with commendable power. Still, the Russian's ability to take the fight to the mat and stall out Lentz's strength is enough to maybe play -3.5 or by descision.
  • Dan Hooker -147 ...I’m really excited for this fight. Chandler is making his UFC debut and even though he is a bit past his prime, he's still very aggressive and an explosive fighter. He likes to pressure opponents, land body shots and loves to swing. He’s also an excellent wrestler. However, I think Dan’s size and skillset will give Chandler a lot of problems. His leg kicks, jabs, and feints will neutralize a lot of what Chandler will have to offer on the feet. The leg kicks especially, since Chandler stands heavy on that lead leg. Hooker also has really solid takedown defense. He’s good at digging the underhooks and will attack the guillotine as well. He has a very dangerous knee up the middle if Chandler decides to shoot. Only real concern for Hooker is his tendency to want to brawl when he gets hurt. He gets reckless, and that can get very dangerous against a power puncher like Chandler. That aside, though, if Hooker can avoid those brawls, he should be able to win, most likely by decision relying on his excellent standup.
  • Julianna Pena +117 ...Pena works herself into awkward positions when chasing a takedown, and as a result, could find herself caught in a submission. Sadly, at 40, McMann has to struggle vs the elite athleticism of Pena. Probably goes to the card but Pena should win fairly easily.

:cheers3:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Albazi's a young prospect who is very well rounded but really he doesn’t seem like he really excels anywhere. He is young and is likely making improvements, but as of right now he still has some work to do. He has good technically boxing but is a little stiff and slow (for the division). He has good entries and takedowns, but his top control and volume on top isn’t great. I dont think he's really fought any legit competition. I’d say his best opponent so far is Jose Torres, who was able to keep the fight standing and outstrike Albazi. He is coming off a statement win against Gordon, but in my opinion, Gordon is a total fraud. Zhalgas on the hand, was a regional champ and has fought UFC caliber opponents in Tyson Nam, Tagir Ulanbekov, and Raulian Paiva and did well those fights. People say his win over Ulanbekov was a robbery but I'm not so sure. Zhalgas was doing more on the feet, and while Ulankbekov had control time, Zhalgas was the much busier fighter on his back. He was consistently throwing punches and elbows while being held. I think this will be important in this fight since there’s a good chance Albazi will try to take Zhalgas down. Zhalgas will consistently be doing damage as he works himself back to his feet. It’ll likely come down to how the judges score the grappling exchanges. It seems the judges on fight island so far tend to favor the damage...so I’m inclined to believe that Zhalgas won’t come out behind after these grappling exchanges. When standing, I think Zhalgas is the better, quicker striker. He’ll likely be landing the harder, cleaner shots and will pull away if the fight stays on the feet. So for those reasons I think Zhalgas has a decent shot at winning the decision here.

Here's another opinion on fight #1 although I'm leaning the other way. Close fight to start the card.
The card opens with an excellent bout at flyweight between Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Amir Albazi. Kazakhstan fighters have been putting on a show in the UFC this past year. I bet Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his last time out but he seemed to be robbed of a decision in his debut. I like his striking and he certainly has a chance to be victorious in this fight. However, his ground game is rather mediocre and I think Albazi dominates this fight the second it hits the mat. Albazi has very good submissions, good offensive wrestling and will likely be far more active than Zhumagulov in any scrambles. There is a ton of value on him here both as a DFS play and straight bet, so I am taking a flyer on him as the card opens today. This could end up being a very close decision but if either fighter is going to win inside the distance, I am confident that Albazi is the guy. We have seen him win fights by early submission in the past and that is his clearest path to victory here in my eyes. Amir Albazi by Round Two Submission


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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Fight #1 - Let's go! :shake:
  1. 2001 Amir Albazi/Zhalgas Zhumagulov Over 2½ -230
    1.84/.8
  2. 2002 Zhalgas Zhumagulov +100 vs Amir Albazi
    1.2/1.2
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[1-1 -0.4U]​
1942 Evloev points handicap -3½ -265 vs Lentz points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter

I didn't realize the announcers were gonna suck off Albazi

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[1-2 -3.05]​
  • 1809 Rountree wins inside distance -250 vs Not Rountree inside distance
    3/1.2
  • 1821 Rountree wins in round 1 -125 vs Any other result
    .75/.6

That was bullshit scoring as Evloev peppered him most of the fight. :arguing2:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[3-5 -1.52]​
  1. 1507 Frevola wins by 3 round decision +840 1
    1/8.4
  2. 1542 Tsarukyan points handicap -3½ -260 vs Frevola points handicap
    any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter
    5.2/2

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
1309 Ribas wins inside distance +175 vs Not Ribas inside distance
2/3.5
1323 Ribas wins in round 2 +600 vs Any other result
.5/3
1325 Ribas wins in round 3 +1100 vs Any other result
.5/5.5
102 Amanda Ribas -365 vs Marina Rodriguez
2.92/.8

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adding a bit...​
  1. 1207 Eye wins by 3 round decision* +140
    1.45
    /2.03
  2. 1202 Joanne Calderwood* -125 vs Jessica Eye
    1.25 /1

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
  1. 1005 Poirier wins inside distance +425 vs Not Poirier inside distance
    1.1/4.68
  2. 1025 McGregor wins in round 1 +200 vs Any other result
    1/2
  3. 1001 Dustin Poirier* +255 vs Conor McGregor
    2.4/6.12

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