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Testing Your Betting System

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I ran across this guide, it's fairly in depth and may take a little time to get through. But there is some useful information within...if you take the time. It does begin with a novice in mind, but progresses to more substantial ideas.

Testing Your Betting System: Starters Guide - Value Betting Blog

Personally I love action and it's great entertainment for me, so the time factor doesn't apply to me as I 'm retired and have plenty of free time. It will vary for each individual as to where they put the most value...that said I'm sure most everyone can draw a little something from this blog.

:shake:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
You may also want to start calculating a Brier score for yourself and the books. The basic calculation is the average of [(1-odds)2] for winners and [(0-odds)2] for losers.
Basically let’s say your odds say team A has 60% chance of winning and the book says 58%. If team A wins then (1-.6)2 = .16 which is your score. The books score would be (1-.58)2 = .176 However this really only holds weight if you have a lot of games to average together. The lower the score the better you are at forecasting winners.

In my example above the formula would be (1-.6)² if you win or (0-.6)² if you lose. Since it’s squared the negative doesn’t matter.

Here is a more drawn out explanation of the Brier scoring


...and even more analytical https://arxiv.org/pdf/1908.08980.pdf
 
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