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Super Bowl Prop Bets Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Best Super Bowl 2021 Prop Bets Available Right Now

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, February 7, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida

Tampa Bay Convert a 4th Down


My main thinking for this play is that Tampa Bay will need to keep pace with Kansas City’s top-level offense.

The Bucs will see how the Bills failed to stay competitive in their AFC Championship game against Kansas City because they settled for field goals instead of going for touchdowns.

Tampa Bay also showed its opportunism in its game against Green Bay, taking chances and being aggressive in order to prolong drives and score more points.

Tom Brady is a proven aggressor and coach Bruce Arians has no objections to risky behavior.

I think fourth down attempts will be all the more likely for the Bucs as they will be down in a game that I expect Kansas City to win - -see my reasoning for a Chiefs victory in my other prop bet article.

Brady has so many reliable weapons and so many go-to plays to rely on in a dire situation. He helped Tampa Bay rank 10th during the regular season in fourth-down conversion rate despite several games where either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin was hurt.

Both wide receivers are healthy, ensuring that Brady can find either one if not another pass-catching option in order to move the sticks.

So I say: yes, Tampa Bay will convert at least one fourth down. The odds moved while I was writing this article. So it is a bit chalkier, but unquestionably worth investing it at the available price. Play this before it becomes more expensive.

Best Bet: Yes at -140 odds at BetOnline

Kansas City What Will Happen First & To Throw an Interception 1st


Tampa Bay’s defense has been at its best on opening drives in the playoffs. In three playoff games thus far, they’ve only allowed points on the other team’s opening drive when the Saints mustered a field goal on a 16-yard drive.

Since the Bucs last played Kansas City, they’ve made significant changes to their defense which lead me to expect a stronger overall performance from their pass defense at least until the masterful Andy Reid makes schematic changes.The Bucs will force adjustments to be made from Patrick Mahomes.

The Buccaneers disguise a lot more of their coverages. These disguises allow an already strong pass-rushing personnel to accrue a higher sack total via coverage sacks.

These coverage sacks help explain why Tampa Bay was able to sack Aaron Rodgers five times, although Rodgers had been sacked only 25 times in 16 regular season games.

Now, Mahomes is a characteristic Houdini who could infuriate bettors who want to hit the “over” on the sack total. But pressure will affect him and will more likely cause him to throw an incomplete pass or an interception.

Also, Tampa Bay employs a lot of 2-man coverage, over four times as much as it did before its bye week. This coverage scheme will be effective against Mahomes because it presents Mahomes with his biggest problems.

Whereas Mahomes completes over 62 percent of his passes against every other type of coverage, he is completing 53.6 percent against 2-man.

So Mahomes will get off to a slow start. He won’t be helped much by a ground game that will contend with Tampa Bay’s lethal defensive line and linebacker combo, which helped the Bucs rank by far number one in run defense.

I think that there is great value in betting on Mahomes to throw an interception first. Brady is usually careful and smart with the ball — his last week was an anomaly. But I suspect recency bias is still pushing the odds in his favor to throw the first pick.

Best Bets: Kansas City Punt First at +100 at BetOnline & Patrick Mahomes at +135 at BetOnline

Color of Liquid Poured On Winning Coach


Orange is favored because of its historically higher usage rate.

But we’re in 2021 right now and, right now, blue is ranked as the most popular gatorade color in America.

These football players are Americans. I’m struggling to see why we shouldn’t expect them to choose the flavor that most Americans like.

Plus, the payout for blue would be fantastic. This is a high-value pick.

Best Bet: Blue at +700 at BetOnline

What Will be said/mentioned first


There are a lot of opportunities to bet on what will be said first. Here we are being asked to determine whether Brady’s age will be mentioned before or after the fact that he’s playing in his 10th Super Bowl.

The most interesting fact is clearly the fact that Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl. In itself, age isn’t interesting. There are and have been plenty of old players even if they aren’t as old as Brady.

But playing in a 10th Super Bowl is unique. Since this is the Super Bowl that commentators will be talking about, it makes sense to expect them to mention Brady’s Super Bowl history before they mention biographical details.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the broadcast featured a highlight reel of Brady’s different Super Bowls.

Also, commentators will want to start out talking about the most interesting things in order to build hype for the game. But talking about how old a guy is does not create excitement. Old age mitigates excitement.

Of course they probably will mention Brady’s age at some point. But this detail is just a tidbit that they will toss in during downtime at some point in the evening's broadcast.

Best Bet: Tom Brady’s 10th Super Bowl at -140 at BetOnline
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
I was asked to include the last two. Not sure how to make a serious argument for that kind of thing, though lol? I look at them as just fun bets to make. Like how often do you get to bet on this random stuff? It just makes the evening even more fun.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Both teams converting a 4th down seems incredibly likely. Brady has that qb sneak in his bag if they need a yard or less also!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
In fairness Brady threw several passes that shoulda been picked by the saints as well.

I was shocked how little packers even attempted to run considering how balanced they been most the year. Despite the fact they did average little over 4 ypc overall. I guess coulda been the fact they were uncharacteristically trailing, or was it they feared the bucs run d? Either way I thought it was a mistake and I think kc will attempt to run more than most would expect. Certainly not saying they gonna turn into ground and pound but I do think they will try and help those tackles out by letting them do some run blocking early on and also try to get backs involved with the screen game, although that could be tough vs bucs heat seeking missiles!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I can’t see myself making any bet that includes counting on kc to punt!! They don’t punt very often!! I like under 3.5 punts!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Seems to me his age and number of SB’s could go hand in hand, something along the lines of “Brady playing in his 10th Sb at the remarkable age of 43!”. The fact he has been talking about playing till 45 or beyond lends itself to his age being brought up as well and I think pretty interesting.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I was asked to include the last two. Not sure how to make a serious argument for that kind of thing, though lol? I look at them as just fun bets to make. Like how often do you get to bet on this random stuff? It just makes the evening even more fun.

this explains what my next post was gonna entail, lol.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Seems to me his age and number of SB’s could go hand in hand, something along the lines of “Brady playing in his 10th Sb at the remarkable age of 43!”. The fact he has been talking about playing till 45 or beyond lends itself to his age being brought up as well and I think pretty interesting.

not that his 10tH SB isn’t gonna be brought up early and often as well. Just dunno I would wanna lay juice on either! Plus I don’t listen intently enough to the broadcasters for a bet like this!! lol
 

Joco

Well-Known Member
I always figured they match Team colors to Gatorade...chiefs get the orange or yellaaaa bucs red
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I always figured they match Team colors to Gatorade...chiefs get the orange or yellaaaa bucs red

that why I lean red, couldnt kc use red as well?? I have no clue if any team has ever color coordinated tho? Can’t remember ever paying attention to Gatorade color and damn sure never bet it., by that point in the game I’ve either won or lost enough that wouldn’t matter! Lol
 

Joco

Well-Known Member
I don’t think I’ve ever seen newer colors. No frost blue or purple. Last year was orange. When the seahawks won it was orange also though
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I don’t think I’ve ever seen newer colors. No frost blue or purple. Last year was orange. When the seahawks won it was orange also though

teapot listed all the colors of last 15 years or so in Gatorade thread, Think there were a few purples in there. Seems to me if kc wins it would stand to reason they use orange again right? Mostly all the same players so orange prob color of choice. Think pats used same color a few times.
 

Joco

Well-Known Member
Yea I just looked. Orange last year. Brady and pats have had blue a couple times! Also the clear...or it was water lol. Purple I saw once I forget what team had it. Eagles Had lemon lime...bama usually has red...I say color coordinate with the team colors. Brady gets red this time
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
I can’t see myself making any bet that includes counting on kc to punt!! They don’t punt very often!! I like under 3.5 punts!


Have not punted in last 12 playoff quarters I believe...might be off by a quarter or 2 but it's been awhile since they punted in playoffs.
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
If you're going to bet on the color of the liquid in a random jug someone grabs I hope you're getting +500 odds. I'd rather biy a scratch ticket.

Opening kickoff a touchback. No +230 on DK. This has hit in 25 of the last 27 SBs per Scott Wetzel just now on the radio.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
If you're going to bet on the color of the liquid in a random jug someone grabs I hope you're getting +500 odds. I'd rather biy a scratch ticket.

Opening kickoff a touchback. No +230 on DK. This has hit in 25 of the last 27 SBs per Scott Wetzel just now on the radio.
I personally think a shrink is needed to bet any of these props.
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Here's what I got so far...copied and pasted from my cbb thread because I am lazy...

James Storm/Bobby Roode aka "Beer Money" Super Bowl Props...
1. Jazmine Sullivan Cleavage During National Anthem = YES -165
2. Joey Chestnut to Win MLE Pre-Game Challenge = YES +125
3. Total Game Combined Penalty Yards O80.5 -150
 
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