• [3/29/2024 @ 1:10 AM] We'd like to extend our deepest apologies for the nearly 20 hours of downtime we experienced Wednesday (3/27) into Thursday (3/28). In short, our server host paused our service due to copywritten material being posted in certain forums (specifically streaming links). *** PLEASE NOTE *** ABSOLUTELY NO LINKS or talks of links to illegal, copywritten material like streaming services can be posted at CTG moving forward. If you find these links, please PM a Moderator or Partner immediately. We appreciate your cooperation.

Super Bowl Early Prop Bets Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: Early Super Bowl LV Prop Bets That Caught Our Eye


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, February 7, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida


Onside Kick
Yes/No

An onside kick could happen if one team wants to catch the other team off guard.

But an onside kick is significantly more likely to occur late in a game in case a team is down multiple touchdowns, scores points, and needs to regain possession ASAP.

I like for this prop bet to hit because I see these things happening: the Buccaneers will score late, but also still be down enough points that they need to attempt an onside kick.

Kansas City matches up excellently with Tampa Bay because the Chiefs possess a strong pass rush.

Season-long statistics do not capture the Chiefs’ current pass-rushing ability because season-long stats also account for the long time period during which the Kansas City pass rush had yet to discover itself.

But the Chiefs’ pass rush came on towards the end of the season. We saw it in their last game where they played starters. Against Atlanta, they accrued four sacks and 12 quarterback his.

We also saw this pass rush in KC’s last playoff game, against Buffalo. In that game, Bill quarterback Josh Allen was sacked four times and hit 10 times.

Frank Clark is just one guy to watch out for. He has a combined total of four sacks in Chief starters' last five games.

Pressure is important because Tom Brady does a terrible job when pressured.

Brady is immobile and cannot escape pressure. He also does not handle pressure well when he fails to escape it.

Right now, his completion percentage is 33.7 when he is pressured, which ranks 29th.

While Brady struggles with Kansas City’s pass rush, the Chief offense led by a healthy Patrick Mahomes will make plays.

Mahomes’ mobility and versatility allow him to rank 11th in completion percentage when pressured.

Also, whereas Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay offense likes to call for go routes downfield that take longer to develop, Mahomes can find wide receivers quickly if he needs to.

Tyreek Hill, especially, should either have a big game or attract so much defensive attention that his teammates have greater performances.

Carlton Davis will likely cover Hill, although Davis consistently struggles to stay with fast wide receivers like Hill and Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley because he possesses more of a physical skill set.

When these two teams met on November 29, Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns.

So Kansas City will build a solid lead. But the Chiefs also tend to become relaxed late in games with a strong lead.

Their regular season contest with Miami and even their AFC Championship contest with Buffalo provide proof of this tendency, which creates greater opportunity for the opponent to score late, in which case that opponent will then want to attempt an onside kick.

Best Bet; Yes at +120 with Bovada

Longest Touchdown Scored
Over/Under 44.5 Yards

&

What Will Happen First In The Game?

Sack/Touchdown

This 'longest touchdown scored' bet looks like an easy “over” until you really consider the number being posted..

Both quarterbacks like to throw deep and are more than capable of doing so.

But the Chiefs’ surging pressure will prevent Brady from comfortably standing in the pocket long enough to hit a teammate deep.

Also, Tampa Bay possesses a strong pass rush of its own that was one of the better ones throughout the season in terms of sack rate and that is coming off a five-sack effort against Green Bay.

The Buc pass rush benefits from the absence of Kansas City’s starting left tackle, Eric Fisher.

It is true that, with Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has a speedster who can accrue a lot of yards after the catch.

But Hill has accrued over 44 yards on a catch only three times this year — postseason included — and scored touchdowns on only two of those times.

After he absolutely embarrassed the Tampa Bay defense, I strongly suspect that the Bucs think of and do everything possible to limit him.

Without deep ball threats from Mahomes or Brady and with Hill kept under wraps, long touchdowns will remain averted.

Moreover, as both offenses find their footing, either team’s pass rush promises to draw first blood.

So also bet on a sack to happen before a touchdown.

Under 44.5 Yards at -120 at Bovada & Sack at -105 at Bovada
 
I felt same way about packers pash rush and coming on late, turns out Brady was kept incredibly clean. I do think coach spags will do a way better job helping his guys out w blitzes in this area, he did a great job bringing pressure that kept Allen in the pocket, obviously totally different against Brady who wants to step up in pocket so I’d expect this time he focuses on getting pressure right up the gut opposed to on the edges. After all it true Brady doesn’t do well when pressured but he also doesn’t get all that concerned with edge pressure, gotta collapse pocket from the interior against him! Good news for kc is no dc understands this better or has proven to get it done than coach spags!! (I hate giving this guy credit since he was so awful as a head coach for the stl rams! He a great DC tho!).

Kc losing fisher and now being down 2 tackles concerns me, I think that was my biggest mistake in the packers game was thinking they could replace their all world tackle. The fact they did well vs rams up front deceived me, shouldn’t have since rams even with a healthy Donald strength isn’t getting pressure off the edge while that exactly where Bucs excel. I dont think those several sacks Rodgers took (where he attempted to step thru the spot vacated by the end as they went too far up the field but were able to still get off block and get him) will happen against mahomes as I think he that much quicker than Rodgers he will be able to get to the open area.
 
Majority of those yards Hill got the 1st meeting were in 1st freaking qrtr, 209 I believe!! Feel like he could have went for 4 bills had they continued going to him!! Lol. Baffles me playoff teams continue letting kelce and cheetah both get off, you gotta take one of them away for Christ sakes!! I know nobody wants to let kc hit ya with the big plays but honestly I think I would sacrifice some of those and bracket kelce, bad enough they hit you deep but I’ll be damned if I also let them control the game with kelce getting one 1st down after another!! Not sure if Bucs even attempt this tho, might be a case where they watch film of last meeting and decide they have to take cheetah away.
 
So kelce “only” had 8 catches for 82 the 1st meeting. Crazy as it sounds that actually a pretty good job on him! Think you gotta keep him there or lower if possible, if you want a chance to win.
 
What’s funny is “kc tends to relax with a lead”, cause often times they tend to relax at beginning of games and fall behind. Like they think it only fair to spot the other team 10-14 points before they get into gear! 2nd quarter is when they typically ratchet up the offense!

another interesting thing is Brasy is usually a slow starter in SB’s. I banked on this in the nfc championship game and of course he started on fire completing one long 3rd down after another in that 1st quarter on way to building a early lead I never saw coming!
 
I like hardman to hit a long one as I agree bucs will be very aware of trying to limit a big play by cheetah. Just the amount of blitzing I would expect from these guys makes me think with all the speed on the field and both offenses desire to hit a deep shot that we probably get a home run whether by air or run after catch on a blitz beating slant someone breaks and takes to the house.
 
Back
Top