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Super Bowl: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Are you accounting for his cavalier response to pressure? Not sure „arm talent“ isn‘t too simple of an answer. Those teams you mentioned can get to the QB and I remember distinctly at least in the Packers game pressure causing him to throw picks

Also Brady is throwing deep more often. Ofc you throw more picks when you take more chances. He‘s able to throw deep bc he still has arm talent.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Also Brady is throwing deep more often. Ofc you throw more picks when you take more chances. He‘s able to throw deep bc he still has arm talent.

majority those games came earlier in the season as well, obviously this was gonna take time. I’m shocked they were able to put it all together and beat packers, as I said before that game I thought the talent was pretty equal and the biggest difference being packers have had 2 years in that system while Brady jumped into this year and without the typical off season! Scary as it sounds I believe Tampa will be better next year!
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
majority those games came earlier in the season as well, obviously this was gonna take time. I’m shocked they were able to put it all together and beat packers, as I said before that game I thought the talent was pretty equal and the biggest difference being packers have had 2 years in that system while Brady jumped into this year and without the typical off season! Scary as it sounds I believe Tampa will be better next year!

Exactly. You can‘t just cherry-pick numbers to concoct a narrative you gotta find the reasoning behind why those numbers exist!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Yes he threw 3 picks against packers but none of them were a product of lacking arm strength, they were mostly just poor decisions wernt they? He was also fantastic in the 1st half, especially converting all those 3rd and longs, those were back breakers, and of course the td to Scotty Miller to end the half.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
In Brady’s 9 SB’s he has scored a grand total of 3 points in the 1st quarter!! I’m very curious if that was more on Brady or hoody? I kinda counted on that slow start in the packers game and he obviously destroyed that theory!
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Yes he threw 3 picks against packers but none of them were a product of lacking arm strength, they were mostly just poor decisions wernt they? He was also fantastic in the 1st half, especially converting all those 3rd and longs, those were back breakers, and of course the td to Scotty Miller to end the half.

Yeah thats what I said above. He was tossing up balls due to pressure. Thats not arm talent, its brain talent lol
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Yeah thats what I said above. He was tossing up balls due to pressure. Thats not arm talent, its brain talent lol

Imo the 2 biggest keys to this game are gonna be can kc back up tackles hold up vs bucs edge rushers and can spags generate pressure up the middle opposed to the edges in this one? Both these qb’s/offenses are plenty capable of shredding the defenses, just gonna be a case of who can give their qb more time/clean pocket?
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Imo the 2 biggest keys to this game are gonna be can kc back up tackles hold up vs bucs edge rushers and can spags generate pressure up the middle opposed to the edges in this one? Both these qb’s/offenses are plenty capable of shredding the defenses, just gonna be a case of who can give their qb more time/clean pocket?

the loss of fisher feels like it could be very big and being somewhat overlooked. I made the mistake of overlooking packers losing their all world tackle and that bucs edge pressure was a huge deciding factor in the nfc championship. One difference that i have mentioned previously is there were several times Rodgers had a lane to step threw and had plenty of room if he did so, the times he tried the bucs edge rushers had enough burst to shed the block and get to Arron, think mahomes is that much quicker he will be able to escape those spots.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
the loss of fisher feels like it could be very big and being somewhat overlooked. I made the mistake of overlooking packers losing their all world tackle and that bucs edge pressure was a huge deciding factor in the nfc championship.

Mahomes is more of a Houdini though and KC got better offensive minds to scheme the protection problem away
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Think I mentioned this previously (either in here or another thread), I think bucs gonna have to use white or a different linebacker to spy mahomes as he is just enough quicker than rodgers he be able to escape those edge rushers when they come to far up the field. What I would do is have white jam Kelce at the line before peeling off/handing him to someone else as he turns his attention to mahomes!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Think I mentioned this previously (either in here or another thread), I think bucs gonna have to use white or a different linebacker to spy mahomes as he is just enough quicker than rodgers he be able to escape those edge rushers when they come to far up the field. What I would do is have white jam Kelce at the line before peeling off/handing him to someone else as he turns his attention to mahomes!!

I dunno if Bowles would do this but I think it about the best idea I could come up with. If I’m playin a game of madden that exactly what I would do, control the linebacker to prevent kelce from getting a clean release (while I have someone else manning him up). Then use him to watch mahomes and any the underneath stuff. Pretty much man with some underneath zone concepts amd a safety over the top of wherever cheetah is!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Pretty funny listening to Andy Ried talking bout how he faced Brady in a SB 16 years ago! Guy is a freak! Not to mention how bad he makes me feel about being a out of shape 43 myself!! Lol
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Pretty funny listening to Andy Ried talking bout how he faced Brady in a SB 16 years ago! Guy is a freak! Not to mention how bad he makes me feel about being a out of shape 43 myself!! Lol

he makes it really difficult to use the “fuck man, I’m 43” excuse!! Now ppl say “isn’t Tom Brady 43?”. Mfer!!
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins said he is optimistic about playing in Super Bowl LV on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after missing both previous playoff games because of a calf injury.

"Feeling great," Watkins said Tuesday. "Still working out with the training staff and [athletic trainer Rick Burkholder], just going over everything so I can have a chance and possibly go out there and feel 100% or 95% or 85%, wherever I get at by Sunday. Feeling pretty good, very optimistic. Been having good practices."
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
Serious question... And spare me any personal animus you have against the person I am about to name:

Why is it when LeBron joins a team with a stud or two, that's ridiculed. He's just chasing rings. He should be true to his team, blah fucking blah.

Tom Brady left a dumpster fire he could have stayed with for: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, AB (in season), Cam Brate, and Fournette and Ronald Jones. To go along with a top 5 defense that they already had. And they improved their OL so that they went from a bottom 5 unit to a Top 5 unit.

Not a peep about this. TB literally has an All-Star team on the offensive side of the ball. Not a peep.

And somehow this team was 7-5 and somehow TB was chasing down Drew Lock and Wentz for the picks lead for the league.

I know exactly who will agree here and exactly who will quote this and disagree.

How many QBs walk in here and struggle with this fucking setup? TB is here despite the QB, not because of him. And he will fail to get his 7th with his superteam Sunday night.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
I agree wholeheartedly

Can't compare individual sports like NBA to NFL though

Anyone who thinks Brady's arm is the same as it was 15 years ago is smoking the good stuff, he's got 4-5 lollypops a game

I get that with the comparison. Just nobody gave him shit for joining a bomb squad.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Don’t you think the line being 3 at least has something to do with their exposure on bucs futures so they want/need kc action? I have no doubt they stand to take a much bigger future hit if bucs win!
No
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
I'm still coming back to one thing in this game - pressure by both defenses which I think will happen. We know Tampa's d-line plus the KC o tackle issue. On the flip side Spagnola was fantastic vs. the Bills, keeping Allen on the run and under pressure all day.

God bless Brady but a wisp of wind put him on the ground. And when he survives the pressure he's making terrible throws (witness the Packers game). Mahomes? His best plays often come when under duress / having to improvise. Especially so assuming his toe is now healthy (ier).

A simpleton analysis on what I think will be the key to the game.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Still wild to me SF led 20-10 with 7 mins left and absolutely blew that game 1 year and 1 day ago (also, KC went and won it -- yes that can go both ways).

The premature celebration still stuck in my head.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I'll say it again, if TB kicks FGs this gets ugly early.

I don't care about the Bills magic season... That staff should be fired for basically waving the white flag in the first half (again, KC is the better team and was going to win, but BUF made it very easy).
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Agree. Ive read they actually are a loser to KC in the futures market based on late season bets putting them over the top.
Interesting.

Most operators say that TB is their biggest liability.

Now, I'm sure KC is right there too. I wanted to bet KC at some point but the value never showed up.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
Interesting.

Most operators say that TB is their biggest liability.

Now, I'm sure KC is right there too. I wanted to bet KC at some point but the value never showed up.

I get a lot of info from Patrick Everson over at Blankets.. His twitter is pretty good despite where he is employed.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Ignore the previous one, my bad.

Anyways, it's just opinions. I think Brady isn't as good as people think. I think he's closer to Brees than Old Brady. (hint: Brees went 12-4, so he's terrible) It's doesnt mean 2dabank isn't listening, ignoring or is even wrong. That's why we bet, because we think we're right. I haven't even made a decision, I like KC at 3 and probably TB at 4 or above. Welcome to handicapping.
I watch what everyone else watches. Making gambling decisions based on only the eye test can make oneself money, but in cases where there is only one bet, bettors have struggled. The books have made lots and lots of money in 95% of superbowls. Sure there are lots of props and parlays to add to their bottom line, but the lines makers see what we see too.

Lines makers know Brady and see he is aging. We all see it. Some of the throws against the Packers he got away with. On the other hand Brady is smart and I think smarter then Mahomie.

Antonio Brown is limited so far but back on the Field he could be something or someone that factors into this game. I think the Packers are a close #2 Best team in the NFL the past 2 seasons and Brady found a way to beat them in Green Bay.

Bottom line my case is already stated. Beat the Packers, my opinion the AFC is not the better conference (KC did do a great job against the NFC though 4-0) My data that I posted supports Tampa, I get a smart QB and I get +145 on a smart but old QB that finds ways to win. He found a way to beat the -10 point favorite high flying Rams in 2001. His D and coach also found a way to get that done. Beating the Packers last week gave me the confidence I need that he will find a way to get the money again and my systems will continue kicking the books ass. Finally a #5 seed against a #1 seed that already lost to the same team on the same field. line is the same or less.

I use a lot of outside the lines thinking, and I love, LOVE to be opposite.
 
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spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Do we believe kc let off the gas after jumping all over tampa in the 1st meeting?
Did Brady get the info he needed from the first half of the first meeting. Maybe he is more prepared to kick their butt after playing them? Who know how this plays out on the field . I dont think any EX or current NFL player know how this game plays out. Thats why I use some field knowledge, my data, and nice lines. The nice line for me is Tampa+145. If I win I knew IT !!!! LOL

If I lose so be it. Highly confident in Bookies lines and next season I will find a winner (based on my data). Long term I trust my data and what I know about the teams.

Either way I know I am a contrarian, but thats doesnt mean I bet bad teams. Tampa is good enough to cash, Will they. Lets watch a great game!

Best wishes to all and enjoy a great game!
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Since 2000 the team with more regular season wins in the superbowl has a 5-9 record. In those 14 game that more win team has a 2-12 ATS record. This is in the Brady Dominated era as well. The data in this time frame, the betting the favorites in the superbowl are 4-5 and ATS the favorites 1-8 ATS
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Did Brady get the info he needed from the first half of the first meeting. Maybe he is more prepared to kick their butt after playing them? Who know how this plays out on the field . I dont think any EX or current NFL player know how this game plays out. Thats why I use some field knowledge, my data, and nice lines. The nice line for me is Tampa+145. If I win I knew IT !!!! LOL

If I lose so be it. Highly confident in Bookies lines and next season I will find a winner (based on my data). Long term I trust my data and what I know about the teams.

Either way I know I am a contrarian, but thats doesnt mean I bet bad teams. Tampa is good enough to cash, Will they. Lets watch a great game!

Best wishes to all and enjoy a great game!

I feel much more confident in my ability to find ncaa winners. Nfl I might as well be flipping a coin. I’ll take patty mahomes/Andy Reid and live with the result. I rather play dogs as well, just tougher for me to find ones I like in nfl, college it pretty easy to have large card every week never having to play a fav really!!! Should be a good game.
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
Imo the 2 biggest keys to this game are gonna be can kc back up tackles hold up vs bucs edge rushers and can spags generate pressure up the middle opposed to the edges in this one? Both these qb’s/offenses are plenty capable of shredding the defenses, just gonna be a case of who can give their qb more time/clean pocket?
Kind of like over 4.5 sacks +120. It’s tough because I think both defenses should be able to get pressure, but both qbs are so smart and aware in the pocket
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
The one thing while ya know spags gonna look to get pressure right up the middle even before Brady arrived bucs interior lineman ranked as some the better pass protectors in the league. I dunno how they graded this year but I assume pretty well.

on the other side ya know bucs gonna be looking to get pressure off the edge but mahomes so good I dunno if they will get him many times?
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Still plus money with the hopes one team is able to get 3-4 and the other almost certainly gets 1 or 2. Seems like a good bet to me.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
Seasons eligible for a QBR rating: Tom Brady 16, Patrick Mahomes 3
Season with a rating over 80: Tom Brady 1, Patrick Mahomes 2

Just in a rabbit hole of stats today

Edit: Im not simple.. Aware there are individual stats where Brady is superior.. Im sure I'll find them at some point.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
Also Brady is throwing deep more often. Ofc you throw more picks when you take more chances. He‘s able to throw deep bc he still has arm talent.
I disagree with your the stats are arbitrary. I specifically picked them because the bucs have a great team. Great teams can hide bad qb performances e.g. bottles, smith, jimmy g. We know the quote, when it come to small sample size.... You can interpret int’s anyway you like.

We’ve reached an impasse. I could go on forever but this is text and no novels from me. Brady is still a really good qb. Brees lost “arm talent” and went 12-4. When it comes down to having a better qb on the other side of the field, I’ll take the younger, better version at -3.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
The one thing while ya know spags gonna look to get pressure right up the middle even before Brady arrived bucs interior lineman ranked as some the better pass protectors in the league. I dunno how they graded this year but I assume pretty well.

on the other side ya know bucs gonna be looking to get pressure off the edge but mahomes so good I dunno if they will get him many times?
I specifically bet against mahomes when he was hurt against the Texans reg season, a year and a half ago? He’s not a great statue qb. I don’t know much about his injury, he seemed 85-90% last game with the toe.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
I specifically bet against mahomes when he was hurt against the Texans reg season, a year and a half ago? He’s not a great statue qb. I don’t know much about his injury, he seemed 85-90% last game with the toe.

he was 85-90% and had his best game of the season against what was advertised as the hottest team in the league and #1 in weighted DVOA.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
Just got back from a terrible college bball game to hear the news Coach Schottenheimer is being moved to hospice. One of my heroes growing up. Guy rarely caught a good break but was a Hall of Famer of teaching the game in my book.
 

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
What makes brady great I think is his lockeroom influence, and leadership. The 3 picks vs green bay ? I thought he played well actually 2 of them were pressure related jump balls. idn I think brady has always been the qb who never impresses you with the arm talent and he threw picks in new england and in big games more than people think. If anything the checkdown new england system protected his pick numbers then what we are seeing now. Brady is now in another super bowl and I still don't think he's as good of a qb as rodgers.

IMO nfc has been better than afc for past 10 years or so in upper tier teams. The Tampa defense I think has become underrated they are gelling very well recently playing insanely fast and getting winfield back - they will need to play better than the regular season meeting vs mahomes. If anything I think that meeting helps the bucs more. You need to see kansas citys speed firsthand to know what you can't get away with. I think they mix in more zone. And kc didn't really stop tampa as much as self inflicted wounds I think tampa was still been gelling very late in season and getting their timing down.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I specifically bet against mahomes when he was hurt against the Texans reg season, a year and a half ago? He’s not a great statue qb. I don’t know much about his injury, he seemed 85-90% last game with the toe.

yea I don’t think it was much a issue. I’ve heard them say “turf toe” once or twice but I don’t think it is turf toe. We saw when and what happened, he got stepped on by one his lineman in the browns game. I don’t think that how you get turf toe? That injury like the most mysterious one to me, I really dunno what it is and it has kept a lot of guys out for long stretches! Makes it a fairly good assumption that not what he dealing with. With 2 more weeks to heal I can’t imagine it a issue at all.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I disagree with your the stats are arbitrary. I specifically picked them because the bucs have a great team. Great teams can hide bad qb performances e.g. bottles, smith, jimmy g. We know the quote, when it come to small sample size.... You can interpret int’s anyway you like.

We’ve reached an impasse. I could go on forever but this is text and no novels from me. Brady is still a really good qb. Brees lost “arm talent” and went 12-4. When it comes down to having a better qb on the other side of the field, I’ll take the younger, better version at -3.

oh I’m def not arguing who the more talented qb is, I’d take mahomes right now over any version we ever seen of Brady. I thought brees drop off was very obvious, you certainly not comparing Brady arm to his the last 2 years? Right now at this moment Brady has more in that arm than brees did in his prime!

for all our debates about Brady’s arm at this point in his career and how I think he still throwing with same velo as ever. I still like kc to win the game.
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
I love the part about using the app....

Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, a Houston furniture store owner who is known for making giant sports bets, has placed the largest wager on Super Bowl LV so far -- $3.46 million on the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +3.5.

McIngvale flew into Colorado Springs on Wednesday, logged on to the DraftKings mobile betting app from the airport and placed one of the largest bets ever on the Super Bowl. After paying a little extra in juice (-127) to get the Bucs at +3.5, McIngvale would win $2.72 million if Tampa Bay covers the spread.

 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
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