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Super Bowl: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Discussion Thread

2daBank

VC's Valentine
So are pats the only team that been in this spot and notu won and covered?

whoops, I see one the 70s Steelers teams won b2b but didn’t cover.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Another thing bout ats history on this game is we just don’t see big spreads on this game like we used to. Last 12 years we havnt even seen a td spread!! used to be the norm which obviously makes the spread far more likely to come into play. That obviously has a ton to do with the fact the spread hasn’t mattered in 14 of the last 15, pick the winner and it incredibly likely you have the ats winner as well. Don’t even bother with the points if you like the dog.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
The last 11 the spread hasn’t came into play, not since steelers were 7 point favs in ‘09 has it mattered. Prior to that it was the ones where brady pats were laying 7ish. It just been incredibly rare a team wins but doesn’t cover. Just pick the winner, easy peasy! Lol
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
All that said they do a great job of making the number feel scary or important!! Brady getting 3.5 obviously feels good!! At same time if you like kc the -3 isn’t all that worrisome. I know one thing, the books damn sure don’t want this being a Kc 3 point win cause they gonna get sided with all kc bets pushing while all bucs bet cash, that gotta be incredibly worrisome for the books!! I hadn’t looked today but seems like if you like bucs you should already have gotten down with +3.5. If you like kc (as I do) probably better to wait, for most part the kc-3s ive seem have come with extra juice, I’m assuming at some point that gonna flip and bucs+3 is gonna have the extra and chiefs -3 hopefully gets to even/cheap at some point! I’m sure books would love to have plenty of action on both teams -3 -120!!
 

pb278817

Well-Known Member
As much as I love Brady, this has to be the definition of a keep it simple stupid type play. Just because Kc lolly-gaged it’s way through the last season, people are giving other teams chances against them. They woulda blown Cleveland out of mahomes didn’t get hurt, they blew Buffalo out who was dominating everyone the last half of the year. The only reason I was giving this game a 2nd thought was the high number of bets on Kc. But as above said, the books don’t want a Tampa win with the futures. Kc minus anything for me. No team can stop this offence in my opinion and they will get stops and probably a pick or 2 from Brady
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
As much as I love Brady, this has to be the definition of a keep it simple stupid type play. Just because Kc lolly-gaged it’s way through the last season, people are giving other teams chances against them. They woulda blown Cleveland out of mahomes didn’t get hurt, they blew Buffalo out who was dominating everyone the last half of the year. The only reason I was giving this game a 2nd thought was the high number of bets on Kc. But as above said, the books don’t want a Tampa win with the futures. Kc minus anything for me. No team can stop this offence in my opinion and they will get stops and probably a pick or 2 from Brady
Trying to fade consensus in playoffs (all sports imo) is a great way to get trucked. I tried it this season and got beat up so badly I won't even go back and look at the posts. Figured if there was a year to try it, Covid year was it. Poor decision. Seems to be very few surprises once the cream has risen to the top.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
do you really feel the history has anything to do with this particular game tho? Fact is it pretty difficult/rare to even get here b2b and win, so they already got the hard part out of the way. I don’t think whether teams covered in this spot means much. If it does maybe a better question is how many teams have gotten into this spot and not won/covered? Pats the only team I’m aware of that got to b2b and won but didn’t cover. Fact of the pats is anytime they had to lay more than a fg in SB’s they wernt a good bet cause they played all of them close as Fuck, they got me covering against atl but they did it in overtime!!
one superbowl no i dont think its that important. but when looking at long term investing i dont think its a great idea to keep backing teams that are trying to repeat after covering as favorites the previous season. Some of what i do is also track these for future use. If one were to look at early trends the unders in the superbowl were awesome. Teams score so much now its harder to predict the total. Things never stay the same but there are angles that i miss. Thats why i post these others have thoughts and contribute.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
one superbowl no i dont think its that important. but when looking at long term investing i dont think its a great idea to keep backing teams that are trying to repeat after covering as favorites the previous season. Some of what i do is also track these for future use. If one were to look at early trends the unders in the superbowl were awesome. Teams score so much now its harder to predict the total. Things never stay the same but there are angles that i miss. Thats why i post these others have thoughts and contribute.

I think the 1st half under still a pretty good angle, get the bigger number and 1st half scoring only avg around 20 a game in these while second half tends to be much higher. Particularly the ones Brady in as he never scores early in these!!
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
I think the 1st half under still a pretty good angle, get the bigger number and 1st half scoring only avg around 20 a game in these while second half tends to be much higher. Particularly the ones Brady in as he never scores early in these!!
Yup Brady struggles in SB's early, at least in the past. All it takes to bust that is one game. I dont trust these type of trends. There are just so many better trends that i value more then A strong QB trend that one strong game can bust at anytime. I trust trends like the Lions horrible record and performances on the road. The Lions are poorly run from top to bottom. I trust that a lot more then a Brady cant do this and hasnt done that. He is too good to think he cant bust this. This is only my opinion but in his home stadium in decent weather (supposedly). I am not hanging my head on your assumption that this again is a poor 1st Q.

To stay on topic the only thing I trust this Supebowl that happens most Superbowls is the trend I posted. Teams that are favored, that have won more games then their opponent in the SB, have done miserably. I will ride that until its broken (and not just once). This season I just happen to get one of if not the greatest QB's as a dog. Add to that the sites I checked have the Bucs as the unpopular team!? I like my chances based upon these facts and a few more.

A few months ago, you asked me when I first started posting how I do I cap and make my decisions, I told you that I try to come up with many favorable factors. This Bucs team checks a lot of boxes for me.

Dog, not majority, Great QB, can score points if get behind early, at home (kinda), my data (above) strongly supports this play. (my opinion) I dont think the AFC is as strong as some people believe it is.

Poke holes in any of this, even the facts can be debated on its merits, fine no problem. Whatever you decide best wishes, Tampa Bay for me all the way. :shake7:
 
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2daBank

VC's Valentine
Yup Brady struggles in SB's early, at least in the past. All it takes to bust that is one game. I dont trust these type of trends. There are just so many better trends that i value more then A strong QB trend that one strong game can bust at anytime. I trust trends like the Lions horrible record and performances on the road. The Lions are poorly run from top to bottom. I trust that a lot more then a Brady cant do this and hasnt done that. He is too good to think he cant bust this. This is only my opinion but in his home stadium in decent weather (supposedly). I am not hanging my head on your assumption that this again is a poor 1st Q.

To stay on topic the only thing I trust this Supebowl that happens most Superbowls is the trend I posted. Teams that are favored, that have won more games then their opponent in the SB, have done miserably. I will ride that until its broken (and not just once). This season I just happen to get one of if not the greatest QB's as a dog. Add to that the sites I checked have the Bucs as the unpopular team!? I like my chances based upon these facts and a few more.

A few months ago, you asked me when I first started posting how I do I cap and make my decisions, I told you that I try to come up with many favorable factors. This Bucs team checks a lot of boxes for me.

Dog, not majority, Great QB, can score points if get behind early, at home (kinda), my data (above) strongly supports this play. (my opinion) I dont think the AFC is as strong as some people believe it is.

Poke holes in any of this, even the facts can be debated on its merits, fine no problem. Whatever you decide best wishes, Tampa Bay for me all the way. :shake7:

I actually think Brady normally not scoring early in these is fairly strong, I’m not a trend guy per-say but I do think the ones there common sense reasoning backing them up have some merit. Brady like a prize fighter, feeling his way out early on in these rugames then dissecting the defenses after he has a good idea what they running!! Of course I was really hoping for/expecting similar results in the nfc championship but he took no time to carve up what they were doing on 3rd downs!! I do think coach spags will be tougher on him than whatever crap Petine was running on those 3rd downs (and mostly long!) he was able to pick apart!!

not sure bucs being unpopular is a proven fact? I remember when Tom signed on there was a ton of buzz and ppl running to the window to get bucs futures! They gotta have a bunch of exposure in the bucs future markets! So while kc might be the more popular side now there a whole bunch of bucs money on futures. I gotta assume this a fairly even split with 2 QBs everyone loves or hates but all respect! Plenty of money on both sides this one!! Prob way more exposure to bucs futures.

I don’t feel like there much of any merit in the trend you brought up about teams favored that have won more games than their opponent doing miserably. Like what the basis for why that would be a thing? Other than ats I’m sure there a good chance the team with the better record has a inflated line thus they don’t cover as many. Think you be hard pressed to get a room full of ppl where everyone would say kc is overwhelmingly the better team. I think most look at these teams as evenly matched and everyone sees these QBs as the goat and the kid chasing the goat status. Just no way do I think the action gonna be one sided. Great game where books gonna get one the biggest handles ever imo. There 2 things books don’t want to see, a bucs straight up win cause the tampa futures, or kc winning by 3 exactly to where they get sided with kc bets pushing and all the bucs+3.5 cashing!

I’m hard pressed to agree with the afc not being as strong as thought of argument. The nfc was unquestionably weak. The East was a joke who produced nothing in the playoffs. Saints had a qb who was a shell of the noodle arm
He has had! Seattle had went into the tank. Bucs and packers were the only 2 nfc teams that would have made playoffs in the afc, think that inarguable isn’t it? Doesn’t mean anything to me for this game but I think it a fact none the less.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
not sure bucs being unpopular is a proven fact? I remember when Tom signed on there was a ton of buzz and ppl running to the window to get bucs futures! They gotta have a bunch of exposure in the bucs future markets! So while kc might be the more popular side now there a whole bunch of bucs money on futures. I gotta assume this a fairly even split with 2 QBs everyone loves or hates but all respect! Plenty of money on both sides this one!! Prob way more exposure to bucs futures.

The sites i have its fact as of now but its early. Did you look this up ? Its not 70% or anything but 3 sites I look at all confirm early action on KC. If i was to only look at this and say I am fading KC only for this reason thats weak but I have other things supporting Tampa. Consensus is only one tool and its not at the top of my list.

Are we on opposite sides? I am not going to change your mind and I am dead set on Tampa.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
I don’t feel like there much of any merit in the trend you brought up about teams favored that have won more games than their opponent doing miserably. Like what the basis for why that would be a thing? Other than ats I’m sure there a good chance the team with the better record has a inflated line thus they don’t cover as many. Think you be hard pressed to get a room full of ppl where everyone would say kc is overwhelmingly the better team. I think most look at these teams as evenly matched and everyone sees these QBs as the goat and the kid chasing the goat status. Just no way do I think the action gonna be one sided. Great game where books gonna get one the biggest handles ever imo. There 2 things books don’t want to see, a bucs straight up win cause the tampa futures, or kc winning by 3 exactly to where they get sided with kc bets pushing and all the bucs+3.5 cashing!

dont know why this is bold.

you dont have to like what I post. We disagree thats cool.

I didnt mean to imply the action is one sided, thats not the case. You might have interpreted it that way, that is false. I said 3 sites have KC as the majority or early action and with a great QB as the dog I think I am good. Besides I have my reasons as I stated to be on Tampa. Youre on KC cool, Good luck. Youre on Tampa ? cool Lets get it !

As far as my data link on the season wins. I personally think its a bookie vs bettor thing thats works very well in history and I roll with it. This is #1 seeded KC that won a Superbowl last season and the line is only -3. I think it should be higher.

The bettors know how good KC has been and they have confirmation from last year they can handle big games. I already stated my cases for the Bucs and I am firm on my decision.

Markets have 2 sides, sounds like were opposite. Best wishes :tiphat:
 
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spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Another thing bout ats history on this game is we just don’t see big spreads on this game like we used to. Last 12 years we havnt even seen a td spread!! used to be the norm which obviously makes the spread far more likely to come into play. That obviously has a ton to do with the fact the spread hasn’t mattered in 14 of the last 15, pick the winner and it incredibly likely you have the ats winner as well. Don’t even bother with the points if you like the dog.
The last few seasons the 1 seed has faced a 1 or 2 seed. The last few seasons listed here. Thats why the lines are tight. most recent on top. team listed first was the favorite. EX: 2 seeded KC was the favorite last season vs #1 seeded SF. Imagine that a 2 seed as a favorite. the books know something about how to balance action and who the public likes. I mean why wouldnt the #1 seed be the favorite?

FU= Favorite over and DO means dog and over ect.

54=2vs1 FU
53=2V2 FU
52=1V1 DO
51=1V2 FO
50=1V1 DU
49=1V1 FO
48=1V1 DO
47-4V2 DO
46=4V1 DU
45=2V6 FO seed #6 was -3 against seed #2 and I am certain that action was split too. makes sense because of the history but the seeding doesnt make sense.
44=1V1 DU
43=2V4 DO
42=5V1 DU SB42
41=3V1 FU
40=6V1 FU SB40
39=2V1 DU
38=3V1 DO
37=2V1 DO
36=2V1 DU
35=4V1 FU
34=1V4 FU
32=1V2 FO
31=4V2 DO
 
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2daBank

VC's Valentine
Don’t you think the line being 3 at least has something to do with their exposure on bucs futures so they want/need kc action? I have no doubt they stand to take a much bigger future hit if bucs win!
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
Don’t you think the line being 3 at least has something to do with their exposure on bucs futures so they want/need kc action? I have no doubt they stand to take a much bigger future hit if bucs win!
yes thats is why the line is 3 but it doesnt mean that KC is the winner. They have enough exposure on Tampa and they could make the line higher according to the consensus but they are stuck on 3. I like tampa because of their exposure and refusal to make the line higher.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
yes thats is why the line is 3 but it doesnt mean that KC is the winner. They have enough exposure on Tampa and they could make the line higher according to the consensus but they are stuck on 3. I like tampa because of their exposure and refusal to make the line higher.

oh, I definitely don’t think it has anything to do with the outcome. I’ve never been one to buy for a minute books know outcomes and/or lines give clues to outcome. Nobody knows.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
The last few seasons the 1 seed has faced a 1 or 2 seed. The last few seasons listed here. Thats why the lines are tight. most recent on top. team listed first was the favorite. EX: 2 seeded KC was the favorite last season vs #1 seeded SF. Imagine that a 2 seed as a favorite. the books know something about how to balance action and who the public likes. I mean why wouldnt the #1 seed be the favorite?
I cant tell if that's rhetorical. They are from different conferences and play different schedules. Also, there was a huge mismatch at QB.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
oh, I definitely don’t think it has anything to do with the outcome. I’ve never been one to buy for a minute books know outcomes and/or lines give clues to outcome. Nobody knows.
No one knows the outcome. It's why it's called gambling. If I knew the outcome, I'd be betting my house every time. The books give clues to who they want you to bet on, not the outcome.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
No one knows the outcome. It's why it's called gambling. If I knew the outcome, I'd be betting my house every time. The books give clues to who they want you to bet on, not the outcome.

ive said this before but it funny so I’ll say again. I’m so damn stubborn my future self could show up and tell me tampa wins the SB and I would still bet kc. I be like “whatever man, you being here in fact changes everything, chiefs win!”. Then of course bucs win and my future self tells me what a moron I am! Lol
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
And to actually add to the NFL discussion, I like the Chiefs at -3. It seems like a mirror of last year's super bowl. Brady just seems to be a slightly better Jimmy G. If I'm on the Chiefs, I want Brady throwing as much as possible.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
And to actually add to the NFL discussion, I like the Chiefs at -3. It seems like a mirror of last year's super bowl. Brady just seems to be a slightly better Jimmy G. If I'm on the Chiefs, I want Brady throwing as much as possible.

hmmm. I dunno bout that. If Brady was niners qb they win that game. No way he folds in 4th or misses that wide open bomb to sanders!!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Brady folded in the 2nd half against the packers. Pack offense couldn't take advantage.

true but he did it with a lead. If he needed to make a play I expect he would have. No way he misses that throw to sanders, I’d bet my life on him making that throw!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
He did make a play, 3 int's in a row to be exact. He also should've thrown 3 against the Saints. This isn't 05 Brady.

I don’t think there any evidence his arm any worse than ‘05. I agree saints shoulda picked a few. I know he threw them in gb, but he also built a lead by shredding packers on 3rd down in the 1st half. Im with you, I’m on kc also but not cause I think Brady skills have diminished in any way, he can still make all the throws.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
I don’t think there any evidence his arm any worse than ‘05. I agree saints shoulda picked a few. I know he threw them in gb, but he also built a lead by shredding packers on 3rd down in the 1st half. Im with you, I’m on kc also but not cause I think Brady skills have diminished in any way, he can still make all the throws.
I disagree completely. Brady is closer to Brees than Old Brady. How many playoff games has Brady thrown 3 int's. Once?
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I disagree completely. Brady is closer to Brees than Old Brady. How many playoff games has Brady thrown 3 int's. Once?

not sure what that has to do with his arm? They taking way more chances than he ever did in pats offense. He nowhere close to noodle arm brees, there plenty of them stats that say his velo and whatever else they measure are still as good as ever. Nothing to disagree with, it backed up with facts.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
not sure what that has to do with his arm? They taking way more chances than he ever did in pats offense. He nowhere close to noodle arm brees, there plenty of them stats that say his velo and whatever else they measure are still as good as ever. Nothing to disagree with, it backed up with facts.
I'm not sure what I'm watching then. Brady looks old and I want him throwing as much as possible.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I'm not sure what I'm watching then. Brady looks old and I want him throwing as much as possible.

not sure how he looks old? He looked same old 10 years ago. The velo or ability to make throws is still the same. He throwing the ball down field more now than he did with pats. I want him getting pressured right up the middle by spags defense, no way do I want him throwing while stepping up into a clean pocket.
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
not sure how he looks old? He looked same old 10 years ago. The velo or ability to make throws is still the same. He throwing the ball down field more now than he did with pats. I want him getting pressured right up the middle by spags defense, no way do I want him throwing while stepping up into a clean pocket.
He is 43 years old. I'll leave it with this. Brady has played upper echelon teams 7 times in the season. NOX3, GBX2, RAMS, KC. He has 12 int's in those games and 3 should've been picks in the NO playoff game. He has lost some arm talent.

From 2012-2019 Brady didn't throw 12 int's in a season.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
No one knows the outcome. It's why it's called gambling. If I knew the outcome, I'd be betting my house every time. The books give clues to who they want you to bet on, not the outcome.
yup clues but only sometimes. I strongly believe in my processes and I do believe a 5 seed being only 3 is a clue. If KC were a lock this line would be higher. 1 vs 5 seeds traditionally are. The books also have more action (not a lot more) on KC and I think that continues. Bettors trust in Mahomes a lot. I trust Brady more. He doesnt make as many mistakes. Sure he has tossed up some bad throws but it hasnt hurt him. Maybe it hurts him this week, but thats something I dont control. I control only my bet on Tampa and the data I like a lot supports my bet.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
not sure how he looks old? He looked same old 10 years ago. The velo or ability to make throws is still the same. He throwing the ball down field more now than he did with pats. I want him getting pressured right up the middle by spags defense, no way do I want him throwing while stepping up into a clean pocket.
Yup here he is again. Old or not Tampa was not good before Brady got here. Brady stopped all the turnover JW threw away. Now they add Gronk and AB to Evans and Godwin. Running game not the best but still good enough balance to get here.

Everything i have worked on to provide the site is getting ignored or bashed. I am tired of responding this week. Take it for what it is. It is previous data that either means something to you or not.

I love Tampa thats the bottom line, and I kinda like no one is supporting my bet. Use this info or ignore it. Peace and good luck on your wagers. I am out :tiphat:
 

Smokeshow99

Well-Known Member
Yup here he is again. Old or not Tampa was not good before Brady got here. Brady stopped all the turnover JW threw away. Now they add Gronk and AB to Evans and Godwin. Running game not the best but still good enough balance to get here.

Everything i have worked on to provide the site is getting ignored or bashed. I am tired of responding this week. Take it for what it is. It is previous data that either means something to you or not.

I love Tampa thats the bottom line, and I kinda like no one is supporting my bet. Use this info or ignore it. Peace and good luck on your wagers. I am out :tiphat:
Ignore the previous one, my bad.

Anyways, it's just opinions. I think Brady isn't as good as people think. I think he's closer to Brees than Old Brady. (hint: Brees went 12-4, so he's terrible) It's doesnt mean 2dabank isn't listening, ignoring or is even wrong. That's why we bet, because we think we're right. I haven't even made a decision, I like KC at 3 and probably TB at 4 or above. Welcome to handicapping.
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
Uh oh.

The Kansas City Chiefs have placed wide receiver Demarcus Robinson and backup center Daniel Kilgore on the reserve/COVID-19 list due to close contact. The roster moves mark the first coronavirus-related issues ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl.As close contacts, Robinson and Kilgore still could play in Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they have five consecutive days of negative tests.

Robinson, 26, had a career-high 45 receptions for 466 yards and three touchdowns this season. Kilgore, 33, appeared in seven games -- including four starts -- this season, his first with the Chiefs. The 10-year veteran is listed as Kansas City's backup center behind Austin Reiter.

 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
Uh oh.

The Kansas City Chiefs have placed wide receiver Demarcus Robinson and backup center Daniel Kilgore on the reserve/COVID-19 list due to close contact. The roster moves mark the first coronavirus-related issues ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl.As close contacts, Robinson and Kilgore still could play in Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they have five consecutive days of negative tests.

Robinson, 26, had a career-high 45 receptions for 466 yards and three touchdowns this season. Kilgore, 33, appeared in seven games -- including four starts -- this season, his first with the Chiefs. The 10-year veteran is listed as Kansas City's backup center behind Austin Reiter.


word is it was a barber. These two are just fine by me. Edit: fine that it’s them
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
He is 43 years old. I'll leave it with this. Brady has played upper echelon teams 7 times in the season. NOX3, GBX2, RAMS, KC. He has 12 int's in those games and 3 should've been picks in the NO playoff game. He has lost some arm talent.

From 2012-2019 Brady didn't throw 12 int's in a season.

Are you accounting for his cavalier response to pressure? Not sure „arm talent“ isn‘t too simple of an answer. Those teams you mentioned can get to the QB and I remember distinctly at least in the Packers game pressure causing him to throw picks
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
He is 43 years old. I'll leave it with this. Brady has played upper echelon teams 7 times in the season. NOX3, GBX2, RAMS, KC. He has 12 int's in those games and 3 should've been picks in the NO playoff game. He has lost some arm talent.

From 2012-2019 Brady didn't throw 12 int's in a season.

ppl smarter than me who evaluate and grade these guys say that isn’t the case. Not sure what else there is to say? He posted one his better seasons number wise at age 43. 2 years ago I would have agreed with you, but the zip on ball looks as good as ever to me and the evaluators agree. Damn you for making me defend him!!! Lol
 
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