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Steelers/Jaguars, Bengals/Redskins, Vikings/Cowboys Parlay Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at +197 Odds




Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville




Match-Up


This is the perfect mach-up for a Pittsburgh Steeler offense that is struggling to establish the run.

In their last three games, the Steelers are running the ball an average 30.17 percent of the time.

Without much run support, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is stepping up. After putting forth a solid effort against the Ravens, he feasted upon the lower-tier pass defense of both Dallas and Cincinnati, respectively.

Big Ben, in his last two games, has accumulated a combined total of 639 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

Roethlisberger benefits from a deep and strong receiving crew led by Pro Bowler Juju Smith-Schuster that contends with a Jacksonville secondary that has not found the quality to replace departed cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye.

Currently, Jacksonville’s top cornerbacks are either injured (DJ Hayden) or allow a passer rating of over 110 when targeted, which is absurdly bad.

I don’t see why Big Ben’s positive streak does not continue against this Jaguar pass defense that ranks 31st according to Football Outsider’s metrics, which account for opponent quality.

Counterpoints?

One could counter that maybe the Steelers are looking ahead to their next opponent, Baltimore.

But Jacksonville has performed strongly against the Steelers in recent years. Head coach Mike Tomlin, Big Ben, etc. are well aware of this recent history, which includes an upset loss at home in the 2017 Divisional Round.

So the Steelers will not only take Jacksonville seriously. They are out for blood.

Could Jacksonville’s recent history against Pittsburgh convince us to bet on the Jaguars?

In the 2017 regular season, the Jaguars held Pittsburgh to nine points. They thrived that season against teams that ran a lot of 11 personnel.

But they no longer showcase this specific match-up advantage because they lack the same elite secondary and pass rush. All of those top players — Ramsey, Bouye, Calais Campbell on the defensive line, and so forth are gone.

Plus, defensive coordinator Todd Wash’s system is no longer new for opposing coaches. 2017 was his first year in Jacksonville.

In the playoffs, Jacksonville needed to score 49 points to win. The Jaguars utilized a strong running game which they combined with play-action plays.

But former top running back Leonard Fournette, once the centerpiece of the offense who regularly drew eight defenders in the box, is gone.

So this isn’t the same Jaguar team that can challenge Pittsburgh remotely.

Jaguar Offense vs Steeler Defense

This year’s Jaguar offense will have to pass to keep up with Big Ben. But this squad is not equipped to keep pace.

Jacksonville owns the NFL’s third-worst pass protection based on adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, the Steeler pass rush owns the NFL’s top adjusted sack rate.

This disparity will be crucial because new quarterback Jake Luton would love to drop back and deliver long bombs to speedster DJ Chark.

But Luton will struggle to have time to throw and Chark will struggle with a secondary that allows the third-lowest catch rate to opposing wide receivers.








Washington Redskins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at FedEX Field in Landover, Maryland





Overrated


Washington is being overrated by NFL oddsmakers because they do not account for how bad the NFC East is.

Washington benefits from playing in what is by far the NFL’s worst division. This fact inflates the team’s record, statistics, and it inflates the perception that the team yields of itself.

Both of Washington’s wins — against Philadelphia and Dallas — came against NFC East opponents. Its closest loss, a one-point squeaker against the Giants, likewise came against an NFC opponent.

In turn, Washington is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS against teams in all other divisions.

Its closest loss against a non-NFC East team was a three-point one against the Lions. The Lions were up 24-3, but took their foot off the gas pedal, as they’ve done repeatedly with big leads this year.

In its four other losses, Washington failed to reach 20 points and conceded at least 30 points.

Match-Up

This presents a strong bounce-back opportunity for Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow, who is coming off a poor outing against Pittsburgh’s superior pass defense.

Burrow had been hot, leading his offense to 30+-point outputs with a combined total of five touchdowns to zero interceptions against Cleveland and Tennessee pass defenses.

He’ll thrive against a Washington secondary that is consistently allowing non-divisional opponents to exceed 110 in passer rating.

in turn, Washington quarterback Alex Smith is going to need to find somebody to rely on not named Terry McLaurin.

McLaurin has almost 500 more receiving yards than any other Washington pass-catcher. But he’ll contend with William Jackson, Cincinnati’s top cornerback who regularly holds opposing top cornerbacks in check.

Jackson matches up well with McLaurin because he has the speed to keep pace with him, as his speed score and 40-yard dash times show.





Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 4:25 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota




Dalvin Cook


Minnesota wants star running back Dalvin Cook to form the centerpiece of its offense.

During Minnesota’s ongoing three-game winning streak, Cook has accrued a combined total of 82 carries and has been targeted nine times.

Offensively, the Vikings thrive when Cook thrives. They have scored from 28 to 34 points in each of the four games when Cook exceeds 100 yards on the ground.

This trend will continue against a Cowboy run defense that ranks 30th according to Football Outsider’s metrics.

Cook benefits from a top-ranking Viking run-blocking unit.

While it’s easier to amass rushing yards when you have big holes to run through, Cook deserves credit for his vision, for the way in which he consistently carries defenders for extra yards upon contact, and cuts back into open spaces.

Defense

Defensively, Minnesota has made great strides, allowing a combined total of 55 points in its past three games combined.

The Vikings like to play with two deep safeties in order to take away the deep ball.

But they also have a relatively well-sized defensive line that is geared towards stopping the run, as are their defensive backs.

So they get away with having fewer players in the box.

A higher blitz rate on third down is making it harder for opponents to sustain drives. Right now, the Vikings defense allows the fourth-lowest third down conversion rate.

Minnesota’s defense will thrive against a Dallas offense that has grown abysmal without starting quarterback Dak Prescott.

Dallas has failed to reach 20 points in each of its past four games as it alternates between no-name quarterbacks in a futile effort to generate offense.

The Verdict

So join me in parlaying the Bengals, Steelers, and Vikings on one of the top sports betting sites.

If you want the bigger payout, you can parlay each team ATS.

If you want to take the safer route, parlay the Bengals ATS -- as they are underdogs -- with both Pittsburgh and Minnesota on the money-line.

Personally, I like to take the safer route no matter how much I like each individual team. My reasoning is simply that I am giving away fewer points while the payout is still attractive.

I also recommend joining me in betting on each team individually to cover the spread.


Best Bet: Parlay Bengals +2 at -108, Steelers ML at -505, Vikings ML at -350 at +197 odds with Heritage
 

C-MAN

Well-Known Member
Some compelling points in the Cincy/Wash game. I do worry about the Cincy offensive line protecting Burrow in this game, but think you are on the right side.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Good stuff. The question that comes to my mind is, would I take Cincinnati this week in the survivor pool. Answer, No.
 
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