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Some random NFL thoughts on games I watched

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
These are my impressions and I could be really wrong so feel free to disagree. It would help if you could tell me where I am off instead of just telling me I don't know what I'm talking about but whatever makes you feel good.

1. Cleveland has a very good football team. They played one of the top two teams in all of football in their stadium and gave a way a fumble, an interception, and a fumbled punt and still played KC to just a 4 point loss. If Stefanski would stop going for it on 4th down inside the opponents 25 and take the three it would help. That cost him two games last year and will cost him again this year but the Browns do look good on offense and generally improved on defense from last year.

2. I'm laughing my ass off when I hear the "experts" say Fields is the new hope of the Bears. Apparently the fans booed Dalton in the preseason and chanted Fields name hoping he would play. I guarantee the good Chicago fans it won't be long before they are booing Fields and hoping they draft a real pro QB.

3. Speaking of a real pro anything, Urban Meyer will be lucky to win a game this year and not be fired before seasons end. Trying to do it with a rookie QB won't help either but Urban seriously shouldn't have been hired. A very bad Houston team destroyed him. All you can eat fading Jax until the books wise up.

4. Pitt cost me today by playing serious defense against a decent offense in the Bills. Really impressive game by the Steelers hanging in down 10-0 at half. And then closing with a rush to win.

5. All this off season and preseason todo about Aaron Rogers was pretty well on display today. I can't think of a worse start for a QB than he had. I agree he was very good at one time but isn't he a little long in the tooth now? And yes I get the irony of me calling someone old but I'm not trying to play football at my age. Maybe Rogers should have just retired and saved himself some embarrassment but it was only one bad game. I just think it's funny how he was all anyone could talk about and then he lays a giant egg on the field. We'll see.

As I said those are just thoughts from games I actually saw today. Feel free to add. GL
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
I agree on both Cleveland and Jax, W2W.

Also, since you've started this, Here are a few (OK, maybe more than a few) thoughts from me.

I don’t have the Sunday ticket this year, which is probably better for my overall health, so this probably won’t be a recurring thing. But a little something for old time’s sake.

So … late in the day, I started to think about the phrase, ‘Hey, word to Wise, listen to my analysis if you want, but don’t touch my bets.’ And Joe’s a pretty transparent guy, case in point, he usually tries not to wear pants. Point is, I’m fine to tell you what I played today and some of it is not pretty.

But beyond that, the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to say something totally different to you all and that is this. Do not be hard on yourself about any of your losses in the NFL today.

Historically, annually, the next 24 hours are an absolute field day of overreaction to exactly one day’s worth of sample size. Not only is that ridiculous, the idea that you (or I) should have gone 4-0, 5-0, 7-1, etc. today is nuts. Based on what? A shortened pre-season that only some teams took seriously?

Don’t get me wrong, if you went 4-0+ today, CONGRATS. You deserve it, but if you didn’t, lighten up on yourself, because you didn’t have any live-bullet info until just now.

With that being said, Joe did find himself watching some of these games today and I feel like I have some answers, but I also have a lot of questions.

The game I may have watched most of—and I know this will shock you—was Atlanta vs. THE MIGHTY MIGHTY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES.

Now, you think you don’t care about the Eagles, or the Falcons, but first, you’re wrong. And second, because you didn’t watch them, I’m here to help you out in case you want to bet on either of them going forward.
  1. The Eagles’ OL pushed Atlanta all over the field today. IF the Birds’ OL is healthy, this team will be good for probably about 23 points a game this year. Because they have the weapons to move the ball.

  2. HOWEVER, and this is the ‘don’t over react part,’ was the Eagles’ OL great and will they be good this year, or does the Atlanta DL just suck like they’re in the alley behind the bar and really need the money. That was pretty much how they were last year, so stay tuned.

  3. Atlanta didn’t look in any way ready to start the season. I didn’t have faith in this team before the season, and I don’t have any now. They looked flat, Ryan looked a little lost, honestly, they looked like shit. At home. In game one of the season. Maybe it means nothing, but …

There are Seahawk highlights on as I type this and here’s a fun note, if you had gone against the three most pro-Covid teams in the league today, you’d have gone 3-0. Two of them were favored (Buffalo & Minny) and two of them were at home (also Buffalo, and Indy). And if you’d have thrown in Washington—which is shitty because Rivera is trying, his team was just being kind of dickish about it most of the offseason—you’d have gone 4-0. I did not do this, but it is interesting.

Oh, speaking of the Fighting Riveras, who’s QBing the Washington Armada/Red Hogs/Clusterfuckers next week?

Speaking of Seattle, I don’t really think this result or this score should surprise. There were a couple of spots today where I’d have normally looked at the over, and this is one, Indy at home. Problem is, new QB in Indy, which is thankfully what kept me off and saved me the loss.

The two questions I have from this game are related to that:

Is Seattle’s defense decent? Will they be going forward or was this them getting a cheap win against a QB who really hasn’t had much time with his new offense? Related, is Indy’s offense going to be able to get close to where they were last year with Wentz or is 17 to 20 points what we should expect from this team?

Joe likes overs. Joe likes overs in climate controlled settings. Joe wants to bet overs in Indy. But Joe is not going to back Carson Wentz if he’s going to chortle balls to the tune of only 16 points at home. Because fuck that guy.

I’m sure seeing Carson Wentz lose will get old at some point, but right now it still makes my heart happy. I didn’t really watch this game, but I’m going to guess being 5-13 on 3rd and 0-3 on 4th is what killed the Colts today. Also, after today, Wentz has still never beaten Seattle, ever.

A game I was wrong on, the over in Houston. Maybe this score looks different if Lawrence doesn’t throw INTs from his own 10 yardline on 3rd and long, but we’ll never know that, now will we.

I’m not totally sure who I wanted to win this game, tbh. I think Houston, because I don’t see either of these teams winning many games. Houston now goes to Cleveland where I imagine the line will be 10, but if it’s less than that Cleveland may be worth a look here, esp. on a tease. If it’s more, is there enough room for a very workman like Houston to get in the back door?

[Editor’s note: No Steed joke here? Are we sure we want to just leave that on the table?]

Jax goes home for Denver which, I hate that it’s Denver’s second road game in a row, but based on both preseason and what we saw today, Denver is clearly the better team.

Speaking of Denver, I saw it live and I just assume Jerry Jeudy broke his ankle because that looked gross. That may not be a problem next week—and obviously I hope he gets better, but that would be a pretty huge blow to Denver.

Ah, hang on, I looked it up they say the x-rays were negative? Yeah, I’d get a second opinion on that. But they say he’s done for 6 to 8 weeks. Not good.

But Denver is another team who out-classed their opponent today. The Giants looked awful. Like they looked awful to the point that in the 4th quarter, the Broncos’ defense was asking for noise from the crowd because the fans that were still there were mostly Donks fans. Just not good.

That said, do you overreact to one shitty game from the Giants? Tough to say. The Giants only gave up two sacks and they were 50% on third down. But honestly, this game was not as close as the score.

Speaking of not as close as the score, if there was one game that went according to the script today, it had to be San Fran. As someone who did not watch this game, my major question is this: Is the Detroit home over back in play? SF had 31 at halftime. Is it possible that the role of Stat Padford has simply been re-cast with Jared Goff and we can look at this team’s total’s at home going forward?

Enough of my losses, let’s talk about one of my wins. Oh, no, wait let’s talk about one more of the losses really quickly because the two games I’m going to bring up felt a lot alike in some ways.

Oh, Minnesota. You know, I said I wasn’t feeling this team before the season started, then what did I do, I laid points with them on the road? Why? Well, I bought into a lot of that, ‘Cincy looked lost in the preseason’ nonsense. Which, again, let’s not beat ourselves up.

My main takeaway from watching a good bit of this game—you’re welcome—is that these teams, to me, looked very much like who they are.

That old Bill Parcells thing about you are what your record says you are? I think these two teams are who what this score says they are. I think they’re 24 points. And if you play good defense, you may hold them under 20 and you’ll win. And if you don’t, they’ll probably keep you in the game and give you a shot. That’s who I think they both are. So maybe they make decent teaser plays if you can get points with them?

Also, the call in OT to win the game by the Bengals was both a good one, and the right one. You can’t punt on 4th and whatever there. That tells your team you’re playing for the tie in the first week of the season. Honestly, that’s how you lose a locker room. But then to call a bootleg pass? I don’t like that I lost, but at least it wasn’t bullshit. It was ballsy. Cincy deserved that win.

Same game, this one I won on (amazing!!), I think that NE/Miami game was a game of two teams also being both ready for the season, and being who they are. (I had the under here, not the side.) But unlike Cincy/Minny, I don’t necessarily believe this score is who these teams are as much as the game is who they are. Here’s what I mean.

I don’t think NE or Miami are necessarily only going to be good for 17 points each week. I think that this game thankfully played out like those of us on the under expected. Division game, first game for a rookie QB, second(?) game for Tua vs. Belichick, Miami with a solid defense, conservative game on both sides of the ball.

Especially to start the season, I do think this is what you’ll get from NE as they try to get Jones more comfortable, but I also think you’re going to see them put pressure on their own defense to not force their offense into bad positions.

What I also think you’re going to see all week is more Mac Jones hype. As if we haven’t had enough already. But that may create some value the other way. After all, NE both lost and failed to cover today even though I very much doubt that’s how it gets covered this week.

Also, in my preseason preamble, I mentioned how this league is all QBs all the time? The just abysmal roughing the passer call in this game—which took away from a fantastic defensive play from Miami, btw—is just more evidence of that. Which I didn’t need, but if you needed more evidence, there it was.

The good news is NE gets the Jets next week, the bad, the Jones hype train may make the line something less than appetizing.

Shit, I thought I was done with my losses, but I’ve got one more. OK, technically I split this game as I had the side as well, but I was wrong on the over in Carolina. My working theory was they were going to let these QBs throw the ball around. Also, I figured if the Jets got down a couple of scores (they did), they’d really open it up (they kinda did), and that would lead to some easy points for Carolina (it did not).

Thing is, not to justify my play here, but there were 70+ passes thrown in the game for over 500 yards. And yet, somehow they barely made it to 30 points.

I thought Zach Wilson looked a lot like the hype train said he would—but here’s the thing that jumped out to me, that Oline sucks. He was sacked six times and he was running all day. Now, maybe Carolina’s DL is better than advertised, or maybe the Jets are going to struggle blocking for this guy all year. Something I would keep an eye on.

As for Carolina, tbh, I think they are who we/I think they are. You can argue their cover today was lucky, I actually would argue that and thank you, Gambling Gods for that failed 2-pt conversion. BUT, when they had to run the clock out, who got the ball? McCaffrey. I still say this team runs through McCaffrey—and if you have a good DL, quick laterally along the line like, say, LAR—Carolina is going to have a long day.

Back to games I didn’t watch, how did Green Bay’s OL look and how did the Saints defense look? I’m guessing the answers are bad and good respectively because although NO only had two sacks, GB was a pretty spectacular 1-10 on third down and their leading rusher had 19 yards. That seems … sub-optimal.

I didn’t like anything about that game so I stayed away, and didn’t watch, but being that the entire world will want to bet on GB at home next week at home on MNF, does anybody have some insight on Green Bay? Did it matter that Love got into the game, could they block for him either?

And I know the Saints are in a weird place being without a real home right now, but they go to Carolina next week. Do they fit the criteria of a team that’s quick along the DL and that may be able to slow McCaffrey?

In other games that kind of went how you thought, Cleveland/KC. I tried to watch some of this game, but I’m one of the few people in the country who doesn’t like Romo/Nantz—I also didn’t bet the game, so I watched more of the Donks/Giants. But everybody who said you could name your score in this one seemed to be right. Nice work. And yes it landed inside the number, but really, this score seems like what you expected, basically, no? You may not have expected how it got there, but the end seems right, no?

Which is to say, I think both KC and Cleveland are going to be just fine if they can stay away from injury.

Buffalo … What happened? You’re up 10-0, against a team you should be able to push around a bit, you leave them in the game and suddenly you’re down by 10? It had to be more than the blocked punt.

To me this feels like one of those games where we look back later in the season and we say, ‘Oh, yeah, Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, and look at these teams now.’

That said, last year Pitt started off hot and scoring points. Is it possible the Steez repeat their early season performance from last season, at least to a degree?

Also in the ‘hey, what happened’ pile … Tennessee?

It’s one game, but where’s that Titans' offense we all ordered?

I didn’t watch this game at all (though I did have the over). Interesting note, last year AZ was 0-8 to the over away from home and Tenny was an over machine. Yet today, at home, Tenny was … flat? IDK, but something happened.

What I have noticed in what I’ve seen from this game is that what I hoped Arizona would be before the season, fun, high scoring, is who they may be. Now they go home for Minnesota. Another over perhaps?

Currently ongoing: The Lambs look about as advertised. Though they’re not dry-humping Andy Dalton’s face into the turf as much as I’d expected or hoped. Maybe Dalton lasts longer as the starter than one week? Hahahaha, I say that and then Fields comes in and scores.

All right, enough nonsense from me, save this:

Based on today, matchups that I want to look at for next week:
  • Cleveland > Houston
  • Denver > Jax
  • Pitt > LV
  • Pitt/Vegas over?
  • Belicheat > a rookie QB (@NYJ)
  • Minny/AZ over?
  • AZ > Minny if it’s under -4?
  • Tenny + @Seattle if the line is inflated?
  • LAR @Indy over?
  • Eagles + if the line is double digits?

Anybody else want to jump in with things to add?
 

SIGO

Well-Known Member
Just to piggyback on your talk about QBs, there was a roughing the passer penalty called against Green Bay in the redzone that looked like a good football play. Hard to figure out what the guy did wrong and frustrating to see.

Anyways great stuff fellas.
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Pump the breaks on the titans hate. Henry always starts out slow, Tannehill was dealing w covid and none of their big 4 played preseason. What would concern me is Lewan absolutely getting destroyed.

Sweet christ, we could have gone 4-0 just betting against the Covid teams today.

To be fair, I'm not worried about Tenny. I think they get it together. No idea when. Probably relatively soon, but I think they do.

That all said, there is another Covid-curious team still with an opening game to play ...
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Ironically 2 of the worst veteran starting QB's in the league were drafted 1 and 2 overall in the 2016 draft. Stick a fork in both Goff and Wentz. Neither have any confidence left in the tank.
The difference between Stafford and Goff is night and day from the neck up. Goff doesn't have the same pocket presence or sense to move out of the pocket before its too late. Command of a game is what Stafford has that I haven't seen as a Rams fan since Warner.I'm a little worried about this defense we're playing with practically no MLB's. Our safeties are coming up to make most of the tackles. They got beat up last year for this same scheme. Our #1 D from last year is long gone. Not impressed with anyone on the dline except AD99 and this was against a MASH unit for the Bears. Overall, love that we have Stafford and don't have to deal with the ignorance Goff brings.
I followed what Aaron Rodgers was doing all off season. The guy switched girlfriends and got engaged before he even knew the chicks last name. He posted often pictures of his vacations with his new lady. He toyed with wanting a trade with he had absolutely no leverage with. Lets face it, he wanted out of Wisconsin because his lady lives in LA. Rodgers wasn't going to eat $35 million by sitting out but he clearly doesn't look prepared. His new lady has his head about as scrambled as can be.
Niners took a hit injury wise with a starting DB out for the year. Mostret who looked lightning fast is dinged up again with a knee. I turned the channel when it was 38-10. Wtf happened? Back door cover was shocking to see. Thats why I tease.
Either Cleveland's dline is that good or KC's oline is that bad. Good adjustment by Reid in the 2nd half to run and stay underneath forcing the safeties to come up.
Daniel Jones throws a really nice ball but too mistake prone to trust.
Gotta be careful to overreact to week 1 results, especially with a guy like Aaron Rodgers.
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
Sweet christ, we could have gone 4-0 just betting against the Covid teams today.

To be fair, I'm not worried about Tenny. I think they get it together. No idea when. Probably relatively soon, but I think they do.

That all said, there is another Covid-curious team still with an opening game to play ...
Not sure oak d can slow down lamar and gus edwards, BUT I think they can put up points on balt. Leaning over or oak Tt over
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Either Cleveland's dline is that good or KC's oline is that bad. Good adjustment by Reid in the 2nd half to run and stay underneath forcing the safeties to come up.

I liked this whole post, but I really liked this point a lot. There was a point made some time early in the day, I believe, about the way KC retooled their OL. I want to say it was about KC, but my brain may have watched to much football today. Anyway, the gist was that it's one thing to bring in one new guy to a group, but that KC really moved a bunch of parts around an it's going to take some time for them to make sure they're on the same page. Which, if that's true, makes sense.

On the other side, I think some of that is Cleveland's DL. Garrett is really good and word out of Browns camp all summer was how Clowney sort of re-focused himself and seemed to be taking this season sort of personally. Part of me thought that was just a way to hype interest in the team, but the reality is, Cleveland did to a lot to shore up that defense. And if you assume their secondary is significantly improved, that's going to trickle down to improving the DL which was solid to begin with.

Also, honestly, I want Chicago to keep playing Dalton because I want to keep betting against him. I also don't want to see Fields get a knee blown out because they can't block for him. It will be interesting to see if Chicago can keep a straight face and start Dalton next week. It would make a tiny bit of sense because it's Cincy. But it would also make no sense because the guy who gives you the best chance to win has clearly been Fields since the moment they saw him in camp.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
I liked this whole post, but I really liked this point a lot. There was a point made some time early in the day, I believe, about the way KC retooled their OL. I want to say it was about KC, but my brain may have watched to much football today. Anyway, the gist was that it's one thing to bring in one new guy to a group, but that KC really moved a bunch of parts around an it's going to take some time for them to make sure they're on the same page. Which, if that's true, makes sense.

On the other side, I think some of that is Cleveland's DL. Garrett is really good and word out of Browns camp all summer was how Clowney sort of re-focused himself and seemed to be taking this season sort of personally. Part of me thought that was just a way to hype interest in the team, but the reality is, Cleveland did to a lot to shore up that defense. And if you assume their secondary is significantly improved, that's going to trickle down to improving the DL which was solid to begin with.

Also, honestly, I want Chicago to keep playing Dalton because I want to keep betting against him. I also don't want to see Fields get a knee blown out because they can't block for him. It will be interesting to see if Chicago can keep a straight face and start Dalton next week. It would make a tiny bit of sense because it's Cincy. But it would also make no sense because the guy who gives you the best chance to win has clearly been Fields since the moment they saw him in camp.
I'm with you on watching so much football. My brain was fried. Good stuff
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
As someone still scarred from the Super Bowl, KC’s OL will be fine. They aren’t going to be lining up against a team like Cleveland every week and three of the five on the line had never played a snap before. I was quite ok with their performance. KC allowing only 7 points in the second half and forcing multiple turnovers without Mathieu, Clark and Ga y on the field yesterday was also noteworthy.

its one week, and BDN is right regarding Henry and Tanny. The big issue is the defense is still ass. Same issues. Same 3rd down problems. Again. It’s one week. But their d will be the only thing keeping them from contending for the AFC.
 
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rambler882

Well-Known Member
These are my impressions and I could be really wrong so feel free to disagree. It would help if you could tell me where I am off instead of just telling me I don't know what I'm talking about but whatever makes you feel good.

1. Cleveland has a very good football team. They played one of the top two teams in all of football in their stadium and gave a way a fumble, an interception, and a fumbled punt and still played KC to just a 4 point loss. If Stefanski would stop going for it on 4th down inside the opponents 25 and take the three it would help. That cost him two games last year and will cost him again this year but the Browns do look good on offense and generally improved on defense from last year.

2. I'm laughing my ass off when I hear the "experts" say Fields is the new hope of the Bears. Apparently the fans booed Dalton in the preseason and chanted Fields name hoping he would play. I guarantee the good Chicago fans it won't be long before they are booing Fields and hoping they draft a real pro QB.

3. Speaking of a real pro anything, Urban Meyer will be lucky to win a game this year and not be fired before seasons end. Trying to do it with a rookie QB won't help either but Urban seriously shouldn't have been hired. A very bad Houston team destroyed him. All you can eat fading Jax until the books wise up.

4. Pitt cost me today by playing serious defense against a decent offense in the Bills. Really impressive game by the Steelers hanging in down 10-0 at half. And then closing with a rush to win.

5. All this off season and preseason todo about Aaron Rogers was pretty well on display today. I can't think of a worse start for a QB than he had. I agree he was very good at one time but isn't he a little long in the tooth now? And yes I get the irony of me calling someone old but I'm not trying to play football at my age. Maybe Rogers should have just retired and saved himself some embarrassment but it was only one bad game. I just think it's funny how he was all anyone could talk about and then he lays a giant egg on the field. We'll see.

As I said those are just thoughts from games I actually saw today. Feel free to add. GL
Rodgers was MVP last year, yesterday had nothing to do with age.
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Great input all. Fair point Rambler. I also want to say I am not expecting Dalton to do anything and I don't think he is better than Fields potential but Wise, to your point I think Fields is overrated especially the way he played in college. Running QB's haven't faired well recently in the NFL and that is one thing Fields has going for him but I don't think he will hold up to the NFL pounding. GL
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Bills and Allen were not particularly sharp, left a lot of opportunities on the table. Refs helped a little too as they called five offensive holds on the Bills, the penalty of choice when you're looking to keep a game close.

McDermott made some odd decisions and playcalls. Early in the 3rd, Steelers had just scored their first points to make it 10-3, Bills go for out on fourth and 8 at the Steeler 35 instead of trying a 52 yard FG. Correct if I'm wrong but didn't Bass kick 7 FGs in a game last year? Anyways, instead of restoring the 10 point lead, they fail and the Steelers use the field position to get another FG and make it 10-6.

Very next drive the Bills are at the Steeler 41 with a 4th and 1. You have probably the best QB sneak artist in the league at the helm, yet McDermott calls this weird fake sneak delayed pitchout to Breida which the blitzing Steelers engulf for a 7 yards loss. Of course the Steelers are blitzing, it's what they do! Momentum clearly was on the Steelers side at that point and the rest is history.

 

rambler882

Well-Known Member
Great input all. Fair point Rambler. I also want to say I am not expecting Dalton to do anything and I don't think he is better than Fields potential but Wise, to your point I think Fields is overrated especially the way he played in college. Running QB's haven't faired well recently in the NFL and that is one thing Fields has going for him but I don't think he will hold up to the NFL pounding. GL
Good thing he was considered to have one of the best arms in the last decade. Rated out as top 5 coming out of college based on advanced stats.

i was happy with dalton yesterday... the defense choked big time.
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Fields has a great arm no doubt Rambler. Another great point. But he also had a tendency to stare down his receivers at OSU. I'm sure they will fix that in the NFL. But that's just my opinion of him. I guess time will tell how good Fields is in the NFL. I have nothing personal against the man and I will be the first to congratulate him on his first NFL winning season. Good discussion thanks. GL
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
Cleveland punter should be cut today. The mishandle of the snap is one thing. But the decision thereafter - panicking when he had ample opportunity to get off a rugby kick. You can't teach someone how to react under pressure and that guy clearly failed. You either have it or you don't. Cost them the game. Shouldn't let him cost you another.
 

brewers888

Chicken Little
These are my impressions and I could be really wrong so feel free to disagree. It would help if you could tell me where I am off instead of just telling me I don't know what I'm talking about but whatever makes you feel good.

1. Cleveland has a very good football team. They played one of the top two teams in all of football in their stadium and gave a way a fumble, an interception, and a fumbled punt and still played KC to just a 4 point loss. If Stefanski would stop going for it on 4th down inside the opponents 25 and take the three it would help. That cost him two games last year and will cost him again this year but the Browns do look good on offense and generally improved on defense from last year.

2. I'm laughing my ass off when I hear the "experts" say Fields is the new hope of the Bears. Apparently the fans booed Dalton in the preseason and chanted Fields name hoping he would play. I guarantee the good Chicago fans it won't be long before they are booing Fields and hoping they draft a real pro QB.

3. Speaking of a real pro anything, Urban Meyer will be lucky to win a game this year and not be fired before seasons end. Trying to do it with a rookie QB won't help either but Urban seriously shouldn't have been hired. A very bad Houston team destroyed him. All you can eat fading Jax until the books wise up.

4. Pitt cost me today by playing serious defense against a decent offense in the Bills. Really impressive game by the Steelers hanging in down 10-0 at half. And then closing with a rush to win.

5. All this off season and preseason todo about Aaron Rogers was pretty well on display today. I can't think of a worse start for a QB than he had. I agree he was very good at one time but isn't he a little long in the tooth now? And yes I get the irony of me calling someone old but I'm not trying to play football at my age. Maybe Rogers should have just retired and saved himself some embarrassment but it was only one bad game. I just think it's funny how he was all anyone could talk about and then he lays a giant egg on the field. We'll see.

As I said those are just thoughts from games I actually saw today. Feel free to add. GL
Rodgers was the league MVP last season. Calling him washed up after one bad performance is rash to say the least.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Rodgers was the league MVP last season. Calling him washed up after one bad performance is rash to say the least.
A QB the level of Rodgers i would think will respond. Im a little worried there's more to this. He had a nightmarish Offseason. Pussy whopped while creating a rift with the organization is not a good combo. Rodgers said 1 thing that was alarming. He said that they were flat. WHAT??? Opening day vs the Saints and you're flat? They're missing an intangible and its called heart. Still need to see more at home next week before I take Green Bay.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
A QB the level of Rodgers i would think will respond. Im a little worried there's more to this. He had a nightmarish Offseason. Pussy whopped while creating a rift with the organization is not a good combo. Rodgers said 1 thing that was alarming. He said that they were flat. WHAT??? Opening day vs the Saints and you're flat? They're missing an intangible and its called heart. Still need to see more at home next week before I take Green Bay.
Didn't watch it, was there much of a crowd? I can understand being flat if there wasn't.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Reminder that teams that lose week 1 CAN go on to win it all. Happened just last year. It happens two or three times each decade.

"But never back to back". WRONG. The last time back to back champs had lost in their openers was 2002 & 2003, In 2003 the Patriots lost week 1 and went on to win their 2nd super bowl. The team they succeeded that had also lost week 1?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
 

twinkie13

Principal at Newman
It was pretty hot there. Could have had something to do with it. It was mentioned by Rodgers.
Bunch of stats I thought I saw about him not playing well in FLA. it’s one game. He is too gifted to just “lose it”

I’m just glad Jameis got to take it out on homie
 

C-MAN

Well-Known Member
Guess I’m in the minority, but thought Dalton played very well. One bad decision which led to the pick on the opening drive but otherwise he was quick and decisive and moved the ball up and down the field on the Rams defense. Montgomery was running hard and Williams looked good catching passes out of the backfield. Their offense was fine. Nagy made some bad decisions which reeked of desperation and the Bears secondary, well they did not have a good night. Dalton was not the problem.
 

rambler882

Well-Known Member
Guess I’m in the minority, but thought Dalton played very well. One bad decision which led to the pick on the opening drive but otherwise he was quick and decisive and moved the ball up and down the field on the Rams defense. Montgomery was running hard and Williams looked good catching passes out of the backfield. Their offense was fine. Nagy made some bad decisions which reeked of desperation and the Bears secondary, well they did not have a good night. Dalton was not the problem.
Agreed. Dalton performed well and gave them a chance to win realistically. The defense choked on 2 bombs and gave up 3 or 4 3rd and longs.
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
Guess I’m in the minority, but thought Dalton played very well. One bad decision which led to the pick on the opening drive but otherwise he was quick and decisive and moved the ball up and down the field on the Rams defense. Montgomery was running hard and Williams looked good catching passes out of the backfield. Their offense was fine. Nagy made some bad decisions which reeked of desperation and the Bears secondary, well they did not have a good night. Dalton was not the problem.

I agree.
 

Lacy

Active Member
I agree on both Cleveland and Jax, W2W.

Also, since you've started this, Here are a few (OK, maybe more than a few) thoughts from me.

I don’t have the Sunday ticket this year, which is probably better for my overall health, so this probably won’t be a recurring thing. But a little something for old time’s sake.

So … late in the day, I started to think about the phrase, ‘Hey, word to Wise, listen to my analysis if you want, but don’t touch my bets.’ And Joe’s a pretty transparent guy, case in point, he usually tries not to wear pants. Point is, I’m fine to tell you what I played today and some of it is not pretty.

But beyond that, the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to say something totally different to you all and that is this. Do not be hard on yourself about any of your losses in the NFL today.

Historically, annually, the next 24 hours are an absolute field day of overreaction to exactly one day’s worth of sample size. Not only is that ridiculous, the idea that you (or I) should have gone 4-0, 5-0, 7-1, etc. today is nuts. Based on what? A shortened pre-season that only some teams took seriously?

Don’t get me wrong, if you went 4-0+ today, CONGRATS. You deserve it, but if you didn’t, lighten up on yourself, because you didn’t have any live-bullet info until just now.

With that being said, Joe did find himself watching some of these games today and I feel like I have some answers, but I also have a lot of questions.

The game I may have watched most of—and I know this will shock you—was Atlanta vs. THE MIGHTY MIGHTY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES.

Now, you think you don’t care about the Eagles, or the Falcons, but first, you’re wrong. And second, because you didn’t watch them, I’m here to help you out in case you want to bet on either of them going forward.
  1. The Eagles’ OL pushed Atlanta all over the field today. IF the Birds’ OL is healthy, this team will be good for probably about 23 points a game this year. Because they have the weapons to move the ball.

  2. HOWEVER, and this is the ‘don’t over react part,’ was the Eagles’ OL great and will they be good this year, or does the Atlanta DL just suck like they’re in the alley behind the bar and really need the money. That was pretty much how they were last year, so stay tuned.

  3. Atlanta didn’t look in any way ready to start the season. I didn’t have faith in this team before the season, and I don’t have any now. They looked flat, Ryan looked a little lost, honestly, they looked like shit. At home. In game one of the season. Maybe it means nothing, but …

There are Seahawk highlights on as I type this and here’s a fun note, if you had gone against the three most pro-Covid teams in the league today, you’d have gone 3-0. Two of them were favored (Buffalo & Minny) and two of them were at home (also Buffalo, and Indy). And if you’d have thrown in Washington—which is shitty because Rivera is trying, his team was just being kind of dickish about it most of the offseason—you’d have gone 4-0. I did not do this, but it is interesting.

Oh, speaking of the Fighting Riveras, who’s QBing the Washington Armada/Red Hogs/Clusterfuckers next week?

Speaking of Seattle, I don’t really think this result or this score should surprise. There were a couple of spots today where I’d have normally looked at the over, and this is one, Indy at home. Problem is, new QB in Indy, which is thankfully what kept me off and saved me the loss.

The two questions I have from this game are related to that:

Is Seattle’s defense decent? Will they be going forward or was this them getting a cheap win against a QB who really hasn’t had much time with his new offense? Related, is Indy’s offense going to be able to get close to where they were last year with Wentz or is 17 to 20 points what we should expect from this team?

Joe likes overs. Joe likes overs in climate controlled settings. Joe wants to bet overs in Indy. But Joe is not going to back Carson Wentz if he’s going to chortle balls to the tune of only 16 points at home. Because fuck that guy.

I’m sure seeing Carson Wentz lose will get old at some point, but right now it still makes my heart happy. I didn’t really watch this game, but I’m going to guess being 5-13 on 3rd and 0-3 on 4th is what killed the Colts today. Also, after today, Wentz has still never beaten Seattle, ever.

A game I was wrong on, the over in Houston. Maybe this score looks different if Lawrence doesn’t throw INTs from his own 10 yardline on 3rd and long, but we’ll never know that, now will we.

I’m not totally sure who I wanted to win this game, tbh. I think Houston, because I don’t see either of these teams winning many games. Houston now goes to Cleveland where I imagine the line will be 10, but if it’s less than that Cleveland may be worth a look here, esp. on a tease. If it’s more, is there enough room for a very workman like Houston to get in the back door?

[Editor’s note: No Steed joke here? Are we sure we want to just leave that on the table?]

Jax goes home for Denver which, I hate that it’s Denver’s second road game in a row, but based on both preseason and what we saw today, Denver is clearly the better team.

Speaking of Denver, I saw it live and I just assume Jerry Jeudy broke his ankle because that looked gross. That may not be a problem next week—and obviously I hope he gets better, but that would be a pretty huge blow to Denver.

Ah, hang on, I looked it up they say the x-rays were negative? Yeah, I’d get a second opinion on that. But they say he’s done for 6 to 8 weeks. Not good.

But Denver is another team who out-classed their opponent today. The Giants looked awful. Like they looked awful to the point that in the 4th quarter, the Broncos’ defense was asking for noise from the crowd because the fans that were still there were mostly Donks fans. Just not good.

That said, do you overreact to one shitty game from the Giants? Tough to say. The Giants only gave up two sacks and they were 50% on third down. But honestly, this game was not as close as the score.

Speaking of not as close as the score, if there was one game that went according to the script today, it had to be San Fran. As someone who did not watch this game, my major question is this: Is the Detroit home over back in play? SF had 31 at halftime. Is it possible that the role of Stat Padford has simply been re-cast with Jared Goff and we can look at this team’s total’s at home going forward?

Enough of my losses, let’s talk about one of my wins. Oh, no, wait let’s talk about one more of the losses really quickly because the two games I’m going to bring up felt a lot alike in some ways.

Oh, Minnesota. You know, I said I wasn’t feeling this team before the season started, then what did I do, I laid points with them on the road? Why? Well, I bought into a lot of that, ‘Cincy looked lost in the preseason’ nonsense. Which, again, let’s not beat ourselves up.

My main takeaway from watching a good bit of this game—you’re welcome—is that these teams, to me, looked very much like who they are.

That old Bill Parcells thing about you are what your record says you are? I think these two teams are who what this score says they are. I think they’re 24 points. And if you play good defense, you may hold them under 20 and you’ll win. And if you don’t, they’ll probably keep you in the game and give you a shot. That’s who I think they both are. So maybe they make decent teaser plays if you can get points with them?

Also, the call in OT to win the game by the Bengals was both a good one, and the right one. You can’t punt on 4th and whatever there. That tells your team you’re playing for the tie in the first week of the season. Honestly, that’s how you lose a locker room. But then to call a bootleg pass? I don’t like that I lost, but at least it wasn’t bullshit. It was ballsy. Cincy deserved that win.

Same game, this one I won on (amazing!!), I think that NE/Miami game was a game of two teams also being both ready for the season, and being who they are. (I had the under here, not the side.) But unlike Cincy/Minny, I don’t necessarily believe this score is who these teams are as much as the game is who they are. Here’s what I mean.

I don’t think NE or Miami are necessarily only going to be good for 17 points each week. I think that this game thankfully played out like those of us on the under expected. Division game, first game for a rookie QB, second(?) game for Tua vs. Belichick, Miami with a solid defense, conservative game on both sides of the ball.

Especially to start the season, I do think this is what you’ll get from NE as they try to get Jones more comfortable, but I also think you’re going to see them put pressure on their own defense to not force their offense into bad positions.

What I also think you’re going to see all week is more Mac Jones hype. As if we haven’t had enough already. But that may create some value the other way. After all, NE both lost and failed to cover today even though I very much doubt that’s how it gets covered this week.

Also, in my preseason preamble, I mentioned how this league is all QBs all the time? The just abysmal roughing the passer call in this game—which took away from a fantastic defensive play from Miami, btw—is just more evidence of that. Which I didn’t need, but if you needed more evidence, there it was.

The good news is NE gets the Jets next week, the bad, the Jones hype train may make the line something less than appetizing.

Shit, I thought I was done with my losses, but I’ve got one more. OK, technically I split this game as I had the side as well, but I was wrong on the over in Carolina. My working theory was they were going to let these QBs throw the ball around. Also, I figured if the Jets got down a couple of scores (they did), they’d really open it up (they kinda did), and that would lead to some easy points for Carolina (it did not).

Thing is, not to justify my play here, but there were 70+ passes thrown in the game for over 500 yards. And yet, somehow they barely made it to 30 points.

I thought Zach Wilson looked a lot like the hype train said he would—but here’s the thing that jumped out to me, that Oline sucks. He was sacked six times and he was running all day. Now, maybe Carolina’s DL is better than advertised, or maybe the Jets are going to struggle blocking for this guy all year. Something I would keep an eye on.

As for Carolina, tbh, I think they are who we/I think they are. You can argue their cover today was lucky, I actually would argue that and thank you, Gambling Gods for that failed 2-pt conversion. BUT, when they had to run the clock out, who got the ball? McCaffrey. I still say this team runs through McCaffrey—and if you have a good DL, quick laterally along the line like, say, LAR—Carolina is going to have a long day.

Back to games I didn’t watch, how did Green Bay’s OL look and how did the Saints defense look? I’m guessing the answers are bad and good respectively because although NO only had two sacks, GB was a pretty spectacular 1-10 on third down and their leading rusher had 19 yards. That seems … sub-optimal.

I didn’t like anything about that game so I stayed away, and didn’t watch, but being that the entire world will want to bet on GB at home next week at home on MNF, does anybody have some insight on Green Bay? Did it matter that Love got into the game, could they block for him either?

And I know the Saints are in a weird place being without a real home right now, but they go to Carolina next week. Do they fit the criteria of a team that’s quick along the DL and that may be able to slow McCaffrey?

In other games that kind of went how you thought, Cleveland/KC. I tried to watch some of this game, but I’m one of the few people in the country who doesn’t like Romo/Nantz—I also didn’t bet the game, so I watched more of the Donks/Giants. But everybody who said you could name your score in this one seemed to be right. Nice work. And yes it landed inside the number, but really, this score seems like what you expected, basically, no? You may not have expected how it got there, but the end seems right, no?

Which is to say, I think both KC and Cleveland are going to be just fine if they can stay away from injury.

Buffalo … What happened? You’re up 10-0, against a team you should be able to push around a bit, you leave them in the game and suddenly you’re down by 10? It had to be more than the blocked punt.

To me this feels like one of those games where we look back later in the season and we say, ‘Oh, yeah, Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, and look at these teams now.’

That said, last year Pitt started off hot and scoring points. Is it possible the Steez repeat their early season performance from last season, at least to a degree?

Also in the ‘hey, what happened’ pile … Tennessee?

It’s one game, but where’s that Titans' offense we all ordered?

I didn’t watch this game at all (though I did have the over). Interesting note, last year AZ was 0-8 to the over away from home and Tenny was an over machine. Yet today, at home, Tenny was … flat? IDK, but something happened.

What I have noticed in what I’ve seen from this game is that what I hoped Arizona would be before the season, fun, high scoring, is who they may be. Now they go home for Minnesota. Another over perhaps?

Currently ongoing: The Lambs look about as advertised. Though they’re not dry-humping Andy Dalton’s face into the turf as much as I’d expected or hoped. Maybe Dalton lasts longer as the starter than one week? Hahahaha, I say that and then Fields comes in and scores.

All right, enough nonsense from me, save this:

Based on today, matchups that I want to look at for next week:
  • Cleveland > Houston
  • Denver > Jax
  • Pitt > LV
  • Pitt/Vegas over?
  • Belicheat > a rookie QB (@NYJ)
  • Minny/AZ over?
  • AZ > Minny if it’s under -4?
  • Tenny + @Seattle if the line is inflated?
  • LAR @Indy over?
  • Eagles + if the line is double digits?

Anybody else want to jump in with things to add?
Peyton Manning or any other HOF QB would have gotten pounded just like Wentz....The OL was abysmal
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Really enjoy the different outlooks in this thread. When there is a glaring area of strength or weakness that i see ill try and contribute.
 

spooks

You Can't Make This Up
Pump the breaks on the titans hate. Henry always starts out slow, Tannehill was dealing w covid and none of their big 4 played preseason. What would concern me is Lewan absolutely getting destroyed.

I know Vrabel doesn't like too many changes within his staff, hence he keeps promoting assistance from within. Considering they've spent the $$$ in the offseason to better the defense, but that secondary and zero pass rush is bothering me. Granted it's the first game, but Jackrabbit Jenkins got smoked and continued to take bad angles in pursuit. Cards running game was consistently hitting the 3rd level, that defense looked unprepared at all.

We all know scrambling QBs are the Titans D kryptonite.
 

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
The Vikings were terrible, and I mean terrible. The penalities were unreal. I think theres some riff between coach and QB. The offensive line, (missing 2 draft picks) was horrendous. Kirk didnt push the ball down the field and Dalvin had absolutely no room to run. I'm not sure if i call this early season kinks or LOFT.

I had a big bet on the 49ers, and I tell you what, detroit is going to be a fun team to play against and on.

The NFC west is going to be fucking good, and I hold an under 49ers, seattle and birds under tickets. Its the best division in football.

I wouldn't worry too much about the Titans, They always start slow.

Bet on Teddy B on the road....all he does is win.

Big Ben aint done yet.

Mac Jones looked good, but they still dont have anyone around him.

The Atlanta Falcons are a bad football team. Kudos to the eagles for showing up yesterday, Hurts proved me wrong.

You need to bet against the Chiefs in the first half until they prove they are actually going to show up in the first couple of quarters.
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
I know Vrabel doesn't like too many changes within his staff, hence he keeps promoting assistance from within. Considering they've spent the $$$ in the offseason to better the defense, but that secondary and zero pass rush is bothering me. Granted it's the first game, but Jackrabbit Jenkins got smoked and continued to take bad angles in pursuit. Cards running game was consistently hitting the 3rd level, that defense looked unprepared at all.

We all know scrambling QBs are the Titans D kryptonite.
I was very outspoken about the hiring of the two coordinators. The d is gonna take time. You’re breaking in a whole new secondary, Fulton and Farley are expected to be big players there but you’re relying on a rookie and a 2nd year guy who basically is a rookie, the pass rush will rely on Autry and Dupree, who prob isn’t 100 yet. Not saying their d will be great but it’s gonna take a few weeks for them to find their footing, plus tenn offense will not be that bad again.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
I was very outspoken about the hiring of the two coordinators. The d is gonna take time. You’re breaking in a whole new secondary, Fulton and Farley are expected to be big players there but you’re relying on a rookie and a 2nd year guy who basically is a rookie, the pass rush will rely on Autry and Dupree, who prob isn’t 100 yet. Not saying their d will be great but it’s gonna take a few weeks for them to find their footing, plus tenn offense will not be that bad again.
At least give credit to our defense which was off the chains
 

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