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SEC Week 3

gps_3

Well-Known Member
WEEK 3
3Sat, September 18New Mexico Lobos
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Texas A&M Aggies
11:00 AM – SECN
3Sat, September 18Alabama Crimson Tide
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Florida Gators
2:30 PM – CBS
3Sat, September 18Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Memphis Tigers
3:00 PM – ESN2
3Sat, September 18Georgia Southern Eagles
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Arkansas Razorbacks
3:00 PM – SECN
3Sat, September 18South Carolina Gamecocks
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Georgia Bulldogs
6:00 PM – ESPN
3Sat, September 18Auburn Tigers
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Penn State Nittany Lions
6:30 PM – ABC
3Sat, September 18Central Michigan Chippewas
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LSU Tigers
6:30 PM – SECN
3Sat, September 18Tulane Green Wave
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Ole Miss Rebels
7:00 PM – ESN2
3Sat, September 18Stanford Cardinal
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Vanderbilt Commodores
7:00 PM – ESNU
 

SIGO

Well-Known Member
My initial reaction is the over. But I can't say I know enough about Tulane to feel really confident, especially since there's evidence that Ole Miss' defense has improved. Twinkie can hopefully shed some light on the Green Wave this week.
Thanks and hopefully @Grovehard can provide his thoughts as well.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
My initial reaction is the over. But I can't say I know enough about Tulane to feel really confident, especially since there's evidence that Ole Miss' defense has improved. Twinkie can hopefully shed some light on the Green Wave this week.
Seems like one to take the team total on whichever team you like, pretty sure whoever covers the spread will hit their team total. Just took Tulane +14.5 so will probably be on their total, but could easily see both teams get to theirs
 

Grovehard

Well-Known Member
I've got a ton of respect for Fritz, and I think Tulane's offense will have plenty of success against Ole Miss' D. It's a unique system, and it's not a great matchup for Ole Miss' new scheme (version of a 3-3-5 stack or strong nickel). On the other hand, the narrative coming out of that OU game seemed to be that Rattler and the OU offense allowed Tulane to hang. I don't expect Corral and co. to have that type of showing, but it's possible. If Tulane's strategy is to keep Corral on the sideline, I think they might have some success, but if they want to trade haymakers, I don't see that going well for them.

What happens if Tulane goes down 21-6 or 27-10 midway through the 2nd quarter? Are they going to keep trying to pound the rock or do they start throwing it? Can Pratt chunk it around enough in that scenario? Over makes a lot of sense to me, but I try to make the case for the other side as best as I can before pulling the trigger.
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
I know Ga Southern is pretty bad, but how do you not look to fade Arkansas here? Maybe 1st half?

I think I like Vandy here, kind of a hold your nose pick. But Stanford coming off a huge win, flying cross country, etc.

I'm notoriously bad at picking AU games, but I expect them to struggle at Penn St

Whether or not I back Alabama depends largely on the health status of Will Anderson and Richardson for Florida. If Anderson plays, I like Alabama's chances at slowing down the Florida run game, regardless if Richardson plays. Likewise, if Richardson is out, Emory Jones doesn't scare me. If Richardson plays, and Will Anderson doesn't, could see a shootout
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
I know Ga Southern is pretty bad, but how do you not look to fade Arkansas here? Maybe 1st half?

I think I like Vandy here, kind of a hold your nose pick. But Stanford coming off a huge win, flying cross country, etc.

I'm notoriously bad at picking AU games, but I expect them to struggle at Penn St

Whether or not I back Alabama depends largely on the health status of Will Anderson and Richardson for Florida. If Anderson plays, I like Alabama's chances at slowing down the Florida run game, regardless if Richardson plays. Likewise, if Richardson is out, Emory Jones doesn't scare me. If Richardson plays, and Will Anderson doesn't, could see a shootout
I'm definitely leaning over.
 

JohnnyGambler

Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Emory Jones passing so far:

17/27 for 133 yards and 1TD 2INT
14/33 for 151 yards and 1TD 2INT

Against freaking Florida Atlantic and South Florida!! He is beyond terrible. Saban wasn't happy with the D last week and still sour after giving up 48 or whatever to Mullen last year. Florida's WR stink and will be shut down by Bama secondary and the QB is even worse.

Richardson for FLA could barely walk on his hammy last week. Even if he somehow plays (suspect it's all Mullen gamesmanship at this point) he won't even be close to 100%.

This is going to be a total ass kicking.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Early season anomaly...Ole Miss has only converted 30.4% of their 3rd down opportunities through two games, ranks 111th nationally. Strange considering even vs Austin Peay they only converted 5 of 14.
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
Interested for your number on Tennessee game. I make it around 52.5 - and that may be short still when you take other factors into effect.
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Interested for your number on Tennessee game. I make it around 52.5 - and that may be short still when you take other factors into effect.
I don't have numbers for any teams outside of the SEC, so only have lines for conference games. I used to do all of FBS when there was a website run by one of the guys here that imported the yearly schedule, making it very efficient. I'm not proficient enough in Excel to get anything remotely useful, so I just stick to SEC teams.

But Tennessee Tech sounds like a team they would play in the Program or Unnecessary Roughness, so I'd expect Tenn to roll
 

Grovehard

Well-Known Member
Early season anomaly...Ole Miss has only converted 30.4% of their 3rd down opportunities through two games, ranks 111th nationally. Strange considering even vs Austin Peay they only converted 5 of 14.
I think it's less strange when you factor in Kiffin's aggressive approach to 4th downs. Ole Miss has converted 7 of 9 4th downs with both number of conversions and number attempts being ranked 1st nationally.
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Emory Jones passing so far:

17/27 for 133 yards and 1TD 2INT
14/33 for 151 yards and 1TD 2INT

Against freaking Florida Atlantic and South Florida!! He is beyond terrible. Saban wasn't happy with the D last week and still sour after giving up 48 or whatever to Mullen last year. Florida's WR stink and will be shut down by Bama secondary and the QB is even worse.

Richardson for FLA could barely walk on his hammy last week. Even if he somehow plays (suspect it's all Mullen gamesmanship at this point) he won't even be close to 100%.

This is going to be a total ass kicking.
In thinking about this game and reading/listening about Florida this season, I keep coming back to the fact that Florida has struggled to have consistent success in the passing game. As we heard with King in game 1, "Saban defenses struggle with mobile QBs," I don't think it's necessarily true anymore. Especially if they aren't a threat to push the ball downfield in the air. The last 5 QBs to beat Alabama are: Burrow, Lawrence, Watson...Jarrett Stidham and Bo Nix. Two #1 picks, a Heisman finalist, and 2 AU guys that had the benefit of that Jordan-Hare voodoo. Can Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson pass enough to beat them? I think it's reasonable to think that Alabama scores 35+ here. So can Florida get into the high 20's or 30's? It's easy to say yes, if you're basing it off the SECCG from last year. I think Alabama wins comfortably, but the cover depends on what happens in the 4th quarter. I lean taking the usual Alabama 1H wagers, and think the final score will be something like 41-24
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
In thinking about this game and reading/listening about Florida this season, I keep coming back to the fact that Florida has struggled to have consistent success in the passing game. As we heard with King in game 1, "Saban defenses struggle with mobile QBs," I don't think it's necessarily true anymore. Especially if they aren't a threat to push the ball downfield in the air. The last 5 QBs to beat Alabama are: Burrow, Lawrence, Watson...Jarrett Stidham and Bo Nix. Two #1 picks, a Heisman finalist, and 2 AU guys that had the benefit of that Jordan-Hare voodoo. Can Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson pass enough to beat them? I think it's reasonable to think that Alabama scores 35+ here. So can Florida get into the high 20's or 30's? It's easy to say yes, if you're basing it off the SECCG from last year. I think Alabama wins comfortably, but the cover depends on what happens in the 4th quarter. I lean taking the usual Alabama 1H wagers, and think the final score will be something like 41-24
This is about what I was thinking..

41-17 very possible too.
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
I'm still not sure what to expect in Happy Valley. Obviously there's very little takeaway from AU's games so far, other than they did what they should have. Saw somewhere but didn't verify that Sagarin has AU's SOS in the mid 200's. I think that Tank Bigsby is by far their best player, and their only legit NFL prospect on offense. If Nix is the same old Nix, he won't be able to do enough to keep Penn St's defense from putting 8-9 guys in the box. I don't have any idea as to Harsin's ability to scheme on offense. Anybody with any insight there? On the other side, Penn St's offense wasn't impressive at Wisconsin, though they did enough, and AU has some players on defense. Atmosphere will be wild, especially after the last year, but AU has some players that have played in similar conditions so it won't be a total shock to the system. And PSU is only 8-8 in these whiteout games, but I'm assuming several of those are Ohio St or other top 5 type opponents. Overall, I'm starting to lean under. Think it could be pretty ugly. And with an under, I'm almost always going to take the points. Feels like there will be a bunch of FG and a 22-13 type final score
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
If anyone cares, my PR make Alabama -11.5 and UGA -32

i thought more than 2 tds was a lot for bama to be laying but who the hell wants to get in front of that bama train? i do think gators might be able to generate some pressure as bama oline hasnt really gelled into the dominate unit you would expect as of yet. qb has been pressured in a insane amount of his dropbacks, of course he has some redic 140 qb rating when under pressure so far but can that really be sustainable?
 

M.W.

Well-Known Member
Two years ago South Carolina won in Athens. UGA has Vandy on deck. I think it's a good spot for Georgia. Huge step in competition for USC QB whose numbers have been surprisingly good. I'm seeing something like 41-0 or 45-3.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Part of me wants Gators and the points I can’t lie…

same here but just cant do it.. put money against bama? no thanks. part of me likes the under too but that seems kinda scary also! hard to imagine gators running qbs have much success vs bama d,, king got nothing on the ground, think bama d too fast for running qbs.. mullens has been able to dial some stuff up vs bama d but he doesnt have the weapons of the past and neither qb is accurate enough imo.. i do think gators d will be able to get into the backfield and be disruptive at times, of course they probably get gashed with some 70 yard tds as well. think gators dc style is the right way to go, no point in sitting back vs this team, might as well be aggressive and try to create some defensive splash plays..
 

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