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Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Jun 5 Sat 2021

4:05 PM
919Tampa Bay RaysR. Hill -L-1½
+107
-142O 8½
-105
920Texas RangersK. Allard -L+1 Markets+1½
-127
+131U 8½
-115
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
wonder if deGrom closes a dog for once

leans:
morton
musgrove
minor
erod
kikuchi
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Everyone and their mother are going to be in degrom tomorrow at the price

he loses as a favorite all the time so now they want to back him (and the Mets) as a pick 'em?

NYM in 1st, but SD best record in the league. I'm not sure
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
was
he loses as a favorite all the time so now they want to back him (and the Mets) as a pick 'em?

NYM in 1st, but SD best record in the league. I'm not sure
i don’t disagree, I just think the public narrative is going to be “when will you ever get degrom -120 or better”
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
but the public money doesn't matter in this sport? There's not enough people betting MLB so if the sharps go one way that's an awful lot to try and overcome it to move a line
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
not in love with ERod, but he should be competitive and has swing-and-miss stuff to get out of jams. Feel like a minimum QS (6ip 3er) is a possible result from him today, though maybe 5ip 3r is satisfactory. As a lefty he'll have to get through a R-heavy lineup, which looks scary but his change-up should be on patrol today. His S&M stuff could be better, but the fastball-change-cutter combo should keep NYY off-balance and get some weak contact if he's right. 1-3 look terrifying, but haven't been swinging all that well and then 4-9 aren't that scary.

Meanwhile Taillon has been pretty average, only one outing has seen him get an out in the 6th inning or later. That screams bullpen, which has plenty of arms available after some good work to eat inning last night. Chapman has been great, but getting to him is tough. Green and Loaisiga can get outs and offer some length, but they're still just keeping Britton's seat warm. Quality arms back there, sure, but nobody that dynamic while NYY lineup is underachieving.

BoSox got enough from Devers in the first to win last night, leadoff is an open gate but 2-5 are dangerous. Ottavino warmed but did not pitch last night, only Sawamura looks like he may be down and Barnes was great in a save situation.

This number keeps climbing, i don't see a reason to avoid BOS
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Morton still has it, but tonight will be a test in a HR-friendly ballpark which plays small in the heat. ATL bullpen stabilizing, LAD had Jansen throw 26 in a 4-run game last night and they have been very careful with him. Only twice has he appeared b2b in 2021, never after throwing 20+ pitches. If he's not available, Treinen likely closes with Gonzalez in front of him and then a mix of very questionable others.

Kershaw could make that moot with 7 innings, but he's only completed 7 in 3 of his 11 starts. Possible, but I expect some outs need to be covered by the pen beyond 2 innings. ATL lineup gets pretty soft after Swanson hits 5th, but the lineup doesn't have bad BvP numbers with Kershaw. Far better than I expected, starts vs ATL in the past three seasons have seen him surrender 4 in each so there's a chance ATL can get some runs tonight

Now is +115 at home enough? Morton can be bad at times, but also can be nasty and the bullpen behind him is far deeper with a bunch of guys who can get outs. They have not been perfect and are unlikely to be tonight, but should offer support behind Morton.

SP advantage = LAD
bullpen advantage = ATL
lineup = LAD

short outings that leads to lots of bullpen = ATL
pitcher's duel = LAD

Currently priced 46.5% to win, not sure it's a coinflip but do like ATL at home where last AB could matter in a close one late
 

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