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NFL Week 17

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Ended the buffalo game last week on a high

Was 5-2 on props, 2-0 on sides (lost both small/tiny PIT plays)

I'll try to find something that stands out in every game or provide a short snippet when possible/if I can. Some writeups might suck as I am catching up on time.

1 PM Props

D. Swift Rush&Rec Yds O82.5 -112 (FD)
C. Ridley Rec Yds O87.5 -112 (FD)
D. Slayton Rec Yds O40.5 -118 (DK) (2 Units)
W. Gallman Rush Attempts O11.5 -112 (FD)

Edit:
M. Gaskin Rush Yds O62.5 -110 (FD)

- MIA/BUF - I think an argument could be had for Diggs, as he is trying to maintain season receiving records, and they're technically still fighting for 2nd... but I don't trust a full game out of him, and nobody wants to bet on uncertainty. Who I am stalking is Gaskin, last week they said it would be a near split workload... well he was out there 75% of the time, to Ahmeds 25%, parlaying that into 60% of all carries, as well as 5 targets... he had 33% of all offensive opportunities on this team. Don't see lines out on it yet.
-MIN/DET - I'm loving swift here, he has played for 3 weeks since returning from injury, and his snap share has steadily climbed in each, I'll say he gets 70%+ snaps today. In those 3 games he has been targeted 5 times in each. The game is middle of the pack in terms of pace. Defensively, minnesota has been bottom 4th in the league against the RB, and Detroit is in a plus spot in regards to adjusted offensive line yards. Sign me up. I see this being more of a competitive game, and I love how concentrated Minnesota's offense is, I can see an argument to play Jefferson (as he is the alpha to thielen.... sorry) (DKs has Jefferson O73.5 -159, FD O82.5 -110)
- NYJ/NEP - stalking Ty. Johnson... no gore, no perine.... week 13 same boat (with darnold at the helm too) he had 22 rush attempts, and 2 targets.... his matchup is good today and he shouldn't get scripted out. No props except TD props available for him yet. (don't hate the idea of a flyer on a WR for patriots in DFS - especially if you think stidham comes in - i'd also debate live betting the over if that happens... as they will most likely attempt to air it out more)
- ATL/TBB - Pass on TBB unless its a brady conversation or maybe RoJo if fournette is out. The offense spreads the ball to much with so many weapons.... 12/139/186, I around up, but those are Ridleys targets/yards/air yards in the last 3 games without julio jones. You can't run vs TBB well, and the pace of this game is rated high.... sign me up
- BAL/CIN - lamar or nothing for me again... could debate andrews as well. not chasing any CINCY in a slow paced game and brandon allen... maybeeeeeeee aj green when seeing inactives.
- DAL/NYG - I was going to come to this game and talk about how Zeke's projections are a bit low, but pass for me, and about how this game should be competitive, and the giants last 4 wins the usage of gallman (which i still like), but I see slaytons yardage prop over 40.5/41.5 (depending on site) is pretty damn low vs this secondary. In his last 3 games he quietly has had 8+ targets, and 106+ air yards.... another sign me up. To add, jones has had 0 rush attempts since playing with his injury, forcing him to throw it is better for receivers than him running it.
- PIT/CLV - waiting on more news here on pitt WRs, case can be made for claypool with rudolph revenge game. Also like Chubb, as he is atleast in a 5050 split, but when leading/winning it starts to trend to 67/33, and thats how vegas sees it, so I do too.
 
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Making that slayton prop 2 units, will update top post.

425PM Props

C. Carson Rush Yds O57.5 -110 (FD)
G. Kittle Rec Yds O52.5 -110 (FD)
D. Henry Rush Yds O125.5 -125 (DK -- FD its 133.5 -110)
T. Montgomery Rush Yds O40.5 -110 (2 Units)

Edit:
M. Williams Rec. Yds O48.5 -110 (FD)

- SEA/SFO - Carson's usage has been trending upwards, and no hyde anymore. The project game script helps him tremendously too. Kittle is the only beathard target worth looking at, he destroyed this number on 5 targets, and no aiyuk, no samuel, no rb's (hello wilson?), game script helps him tremendously too. He also saw just 50% of the snaps last week, that should trend upwards too.
- LAC/KCC - Stalking maybe Darwin Thompson, and definitely mike williams
- LVR/DEN - Can consider fant/jeudy, even waller
- ARI/LAR - Stalking M. Brown, as he should be in line for 20/25+ touches... but otherwise, its such a mess here, I want to like woods volume, but he is really the only guy zona has to key in on.... I want to like hopkins, but rams defense isn't a joke either, and there is no edmons/fitz/kirk (most likely).... and it's also the lowest total of the year.
- JAC/IND - Stronggg lean to Taylor... gamescript is huge, and they've relied on him more and more as the season has progressed.... 20+ carries, and his rushing prop should hit... only fear is a slow start yardage wise, and a huge lead to finish making him sit the bench. passing for now
- TEN/HOU -You start every DFS lineup with Henry locked into, and you just find the value elsewhere.... fade him at your own risk (and if it works, maybe you'll be a millionaire (if you are doing this, atleast have aj brown).... he is in a smash spot, last time they met he was over 200+ yards, houstons defense is soft, it's one of the faster paced games, its meaningful game for the titans. Watson should be able to keep it competitively close... Sign me up.
- GBP/CHI - Pass here, don't think rodgers will be as efficient as last matchup vs bears, don't think trubisky/montgomery will be as efficient as the last 4 weeks for them either. Don't hate the ideas of one-offs on robinson/adams though. Especially adams as he is just straight up matchup proof, and is the mvp's favorite target (mahomes or rodgers?) but again, pass.
- NOS/CAR - Slower paced game, and Car has a 3 headed monster at WR. i think atleast 1 will beat their props, but i'm not playing a guessing game in this matchup. Ty montgomery though..... kamara/murray/washington/burton are all out... and I know taysom will get his fair share... but montgomery is really the only option. He also has a plus matchup vs this defense... this is a no brainer for me, only found this option on FD (don't hate reception prop if you find one either)
 
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Buffalo is kind of an enigma to me today. First thought was they would really try to win and keep the 2 spot to avoid Balt in first round. But with Pitt essentially saying they aren't going to play starters and laying down, the Bills motivation goes down and I guess we could see them at least sit starters in 2H. No Beasley either. I think no Fitzmagic for Mia is big too, given how Tua has struggled with reads and production. GL today, like your thoughts on these games.
 
Buffalo is kind of an enigma to me today. First thought was they would really try to win and keep the 2 spot to avoid Balt in first round. But with Pitt essentially saying they aren't going to play starters and laying down, the Bills motivation goes down and I guess we could see them at least sit starters in 2H. No Beasley either. I think no Fitzmagic for Mia is big too, given how Tua has struggled with reads and production. GL today, like your thoughts on these games.
I agree, can't stomach taking buffalo players props....

and thank you.
 

Bills QB Matt Barkley is expected to play in Week 17 against the Dolphins.​

The report isn't all that surprising after the team refused this week to commit to playing its starters against Miami. It looks like the Bills want Josh Allen to break the team's single season passing yardage record -- he's only 40 yards away from doing so -- before yanking him for Barkley. Allen should be removed from DFS lineups, posthaste.
 

Bills QB Matt Barkley is expected to play in Week 17 against the Dolphins.​

The report isn't all that surprising after the team refused this week to commit to playing its starters against Miami. It looks like the Bills want Josh Allen to break the team's single season passing yardage record -- he's only 40 yards away from doing so -- before yanking him for Barkley. Allen should be removed from DFS lineups, posthaste.
Thank you!!

Couldn't find gaskin props on DK

Fanduel doesn't have a combined rec/rush prop, so going to go with

1PM
M. Gaskin Rush Yds O62.5 -110 (FD) (as opposed to Rec Yds. O24.5 -110, can probably go with either) - adding to the first post.

425PM
M. Williams Rec. Yds O48.5 -110 (FD) (don't see any on DK yet) - adding to 4pm post

Still don't see/stalking

Ty Johnson.
Claypool?
D. Thompson?
 
1pm props look done at this point

Still don't see/stalking

D. Thompson?
M. Brown

1PM Sides

MIN/DET 1st Half O26.5 -122

Really taking a stand on both these offenses vs both these defenses... hoping stafford can make it through the 1st half (and hopefully whole game)
 
- So happy Bills kept in allen the whole half (not...) wish I went for gaskin receiving prop....
- I'll give ridley a slim chance of hitting his....
- Need dallas to score quickly, so giants decide to throw the ball for slayton. That gallman fumble led to morris coming in on next drive to get 2 carries for 3 yards. (now has 5 for 12)... can they stop? Also, you're up 20-9 going into the second half, and on 3 drives, they've ran the ball twice (on 11 plays though)
- Swift needs 14 more yards, still has a shot.
 
3-0 Sides
0-5 Props

Ignored jefferson/lamar, couldn't find claypool

Pending

C. Carson Rush Yds O57.5 -110 (FD)
G. Kittle Rec Yds O52.5 -110 (FD)
D. Henry Rush Yds O125.5 -125 (DK)
T. Montgomery Rush Yds O40.5 -110 (FD) (2 Units)
M. Williams Rec. Yds O48.5 -110 (FD)

Adding
M. Brown Rush/Rec Yds O69.5 -112 (FD)

Adding

CHI +4.5 -110
TEN/HOU 1st Half O28.5 +105
 
4-7 Props
3-2 Sides

On Ertz props here, he saw his snap count go up in 3 straight, and no goedert now and b2b games with 7 targets

Mclaurin has had more air yards than this number in all of his last 8 games...

Z. Ertz Receptions O3.5 +108 (FD) (2 Units)
T. McLaurin Receiving Yds O50.5 -110
 
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