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NCAAF Monday 1/11 Alabama/Ohio St

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
YTD +413

Alabama/Ohio St over 75 x200

I am posting this now instead of waiting because I have to believe that even if covid hits both teams they will reschedule this game so that both teams are mostly unaffected and at reasonable full strength. And if not it won't be the first time the NCAA has done something to favor one conference over another.

I know Blood would think I was being foolish for not just taking Bama to cover the spread but I have some doubts about that. Win? Yes. I believe Bama will. But covering is another story. So I am going to take the safer route and bet over even though my nose is bleeding from how high this total is. But win or lose this bet, I will still finish the year winning for the season and that's not easy to do when you are posting picks every week, week in and week out.

Why the over?

There is no disputing Bama's offense. Harris is a tank, Jones has proven to be very capable, and Smith is obviously the best receiver in the country. They are more a machine than anything else. They can and will run and pass against anyone. Bama should score there and score a ton if OSU plays that safety 20 yards from the ball. Day didn't do that as much against Clemson but we will see what he does against Bama.

On defense, Bama is somewhat suspect but that is pretty much based on what Saban does with his corners. Play them best on best and he will have his best success. But he doesn't normally do that. I think he believes that he will play things his way and that will be good enough. But if Ohio St can isolate Olave and Wilson on LB's or safeties it most certainly will not be good enough. And even if they do play best on best Olave may just be too fast for them. He certainly was against Clemson but I have no way to compare Bama and Clemson team speed until they run their first pass route. Ohio St should score there.

Fields, in my opinion had his best day ever against Clemson. But Clemson, or you could say his offensive line, gave him all day to throw. Will he have that kind of time against Bama? I don't know. But the time he had to throw allowed him to look around and go through his progressions which is something he never did much before. It paid off for him as he found a ton of open receivers obviously. One could make the case that almost any QB would look great with that kind of time. But again he did play very well so maybe he steps up again. If he does and Sermon has another good game OSU will score. Sermon has looked very good his last two games so that will help scoring as well. But as I said earlier Saban may make it really easy for Fields the way he plays his defense. The OSU receivers could be running free. Another factor to consider was OSU utilized their TE's a lot against Clemson and very successfully. So even if Saban plays best on best the LB's still have to contend with a fired up Sermon and the TE's which normally the TE's pass coverage falls to the LB's as well as stopping the run so there is added pressure there.

All I am going to say about OSU defense is they are horrible at pass defense. I think I saw they were ranked 103rd in the nation. That's a lot of bad teams that do much better than they do guarding against the pass. Again, as I said earlier Jones is very capable and Harris is a load so the OSU LB's better come to play. And if that safety does play 20 yards off the ball it could get very ugly very quickly.

In my final opinion, even though the total is very high, so much depends on what we see of both teams game plans, and of course we won't see that until the first snap, I think it is too tough to pick a side with a better than TD spread. Over is safer. Sorry Blood.

In any event, I am impressed they pulled it off and actually had a college football season. It has been a very good and profitable season and I look forward to seeing you in this forum again next year in a more hopefully normal season. GL
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Only way Olave or Wilson would be matched up against a LB 1 on1 is if they line up in the backfield or at TE. It's more likely that OSU will scheme to get them one on one with a safety.

If you watch the 2 games that Alabama really struggled on defense (Ole Miss and Florida), you'll see two different reasons. Against Ole Miss, the pace that the offense played gave Alabama all kinds of problems, whether it was not getting set, or not getting a play called in, trying to substitute when they shouldn't etc. Some of that can be attributed to inexperience and a young season, a lot can be that Kiffin and Lebby are great playcallers, and once the Alabama defense was on it's heels, it was hard to stop. For Florida, there was less of that type of confusion, and more about scheming favorable matchups, but the biggest factor was that even though Alabama's DBs were in position to make a play all night, and the Florida guys just kept beating them. Really bad night for Surtain and Jobe. Malachi Moore (slot corner for all intents and purposes) also had a poor night, more excusable because he's a freshman.

The problem for Alabama's defense is that Ohio St appears capable of both playing with pace and having the athletes to win one on one. Plus they have a legit run threat at both RB and QB. Alabama will need it's best game from the DL to keep Fields from lighting them up on the deep ball. I think Alabama is plenty capable of doing the same thing (minus QB running), so yeah, I think over 75 is a good play
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Good points gps. Thank you. A couple of years back osu destroyed Michigan by putting one of their fast receivers in the slot and having him run drag roots across the defense. When that happened it comes into the LB coverage. Well under the safety to help. That was what I was thinking when I said they could try to isolate Olave from the slot on an LB. but you make a great point bama would never voluntarily ask an LB to cover him. I agree. GL
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
I don't know Michigan well enough to know what happened a couple of years ago, but I suspect Alabama will be in nickel and dime for most of this game, as they are against most teams with a modern offense. Alabama rarely plays traditional zone defense, so even if OSU designed plays to get their WR in the space occupied by a LB, there will be a DB with him. And Alabama isn't as bad against the deep ball as most will have you believe. It's more that they struggle against the intermediate or even short throws that turn into big plays. Tackling has been an issue this season, as it has been across college football, but they've done better in the last few games.
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
I see your point. Michigan was in a two deep zone and that’s why osu caught those short passes so often and easily. GL
 

cashflowmatters

Where the cash flows, matters
GL on the action W2W, always appreciate your threads!! Blood will be watching this game with a bourbon in hand and a smile
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
My answer is going to be very unpopular to some. But I won’t respond further after this as this is not the place for discussion.

Wise you reap what you sow. I don’t believe those that riled up the people at the rally truly understood what violence that could lead too. I dont believe the trumps In their life bubble have ever experienced first hand violence so they have no concept of the consequences of their words. I am also of the camp that believes if those were black people invading the Capitol the response by authorities would have been significantly different. GL

as always thank you Cash. Man he would be pissed at me for not taking bama. I can hear him now. GL
 

cashflowmatters

Where the cash flows, matters
Blood is enjoying Bama Bourbon in heaven today. Nice call on your over, was a lot closer than it should have been but you got the $$ and thats what matters
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Blood is enjoying Bama Bourbon in heaven today. Nice call on your over, was a lot closer than it should have been but you got the $$ and thats what matters

im shocked it ended up that close! Felt like it was over by the 3rd qrtr but guess nothing much happened in 2nd half.
 
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