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My OU Sooners and their high expectations this Fall - my .02

majent

#1 Sooners Fan
Hunt and I were messaging each other about my beloved OU Sooners and I thought I would share my penny or two of how I am feeling going into the season.

I am looking forward to CFB again but regarding my Sooners I am uncomfortable.

I don't like that big target that the Top 5 teams and especially the Top 2 get on them, preseason, unless it's Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, schools like this who seem immune to the pressure.

The Sooners do Not seem immune to this pressure even going back to the Stoops days.

On paper, we look pretty strong in all 3 phases but our young Center and RB's will have to step up.

Let's look at the schedule:

9/4 @ Tulane -Mean Green have 16 starters back and seem well coached by Fritz. tricky game but I think we win by DD when it's said and done. still, tricky first game on the road.

9/18 v Nebraska. I expect the Huskers to a be much improved team but it probably does not show up this early in the season and in Norman. I think we win comfortably on the scoreboard but only because it is early in the season and at home. Without those two factors I could see the margin being inside of 10 had it been later in the year and at Lincoln (like it is next year :-O)

10/2 at K State. Need I say anymore? Toss up game IMO.

10/9 v texasss. no comments necessary. they are young at QB and brand new coach, but is the RRR. very unpredictable. i will say we win, but not easy at all.

10/16 v TCU. Patterson is a witch. tons of returning starters incl QB. very tough game. we sneak by this one if both teams healthy at key spots.

10/30 v Tex Tech. Wells' team in Year 3 under him could break out this year. we win, but closer than it looks on paper.

11/13 at Baylor. Aranda, at home, in year 2. Look out. close win.

11/20 v Iowa State. Campbell, Purdy, Breece. what a coach, what a QB, and what a RB. even more, what a team around on them in all 3 phases. Toss up game.

11/27 at okie lite. they are always lying in wait, no matter what. Gundy a great coach. their young team (esp on O) will be much more seasoned by then and ready to play spoiler.


If healthy at key spots like Spencer and a few other *irreplaceable* spots, I see us going 11-1 with many close wins and a crappy nonconf which hurts us in the Playoff ranking.

Then at 11-1 and perhaps ranked #4 or lower in the playoff rankings, we head to Jerry's World to play a strong team in the B12 conf title game and we Lose. Yes, we Lose.

final record 11-2 and NO playoff this year.

This is my gut feeling. I am hopeful but I try as much as possible to put my fandom aside when analyzing a team and their prospects for the season.

Between the B12 schedule which is much stronger than some might think, and having to play one of those schools a second time (if, if, if we make it to Jerry's world), I am seeing at least 2 losses this year and looking on the outside for a second straight year in the CFB playoff.

Obviously, I am hoping I am wrong.

I welcome any and all comments and thoughts.

Thanks and enjoy the season, Fellas.
 

Buck50

Member
Hunt and I were messaging each other about my beloved OU Sooners and I thought I would share my penny or two of how I am feeling going into the season.

I am looking forward to CFB again but regarding my Sooners I am uncomfortable.

I don't like that big target that the Top 5 teams and especially the Top 2 get on them, preseason, unless it's Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, schools like this who seem immune to the pressure.

The Sooners do Not seem immune to this pressure even going back to the Stoops days.

On paper, we look pretty strong in all 3 phases but our young Center and RB's will have to step up.

Let's look at the schedule:

9/4 @ Tulane -Mean Green have 16 starters back and seem well coached by Fritz. tricky game but I think we win by DD when it's said and done. still, tricky first game on the road.

9/18 v Nebraska. I expect the Huskers to a be much improved team but it probably does not show up this early in the season and in Norman. I think we win comfortably on the scoreboard but only because it is early in the season and at home. Without those two factors I could see the margin being inside of 10 had it been later in the year and at Lincoln (like it is next year :-O)

10/2 at K State. Need I say anymore? Toss up game IMO.

10/9 v texasss. no comments necessary. they are young at QB and brand new coach, but is the RRR. very unpredictable. i will say we win, but not easy at all.

10/16 v TCU. Patterson is a witch. tons of returning starters incl QB. very tough game. we sneak by this one if both teams healthy at key spots.

10/30 v Tex Tech. Wells' team in Year 3 under him could break out this year. we win, but closer than it looks on paper.

11/13 at Baylor. Aranda, at home, in year 2. Look out. close win.

11/20 v Iowa State. Campbell, Purdy, Breece. what a coach, what a QB, and what a RB. even more, what a team around on them in all 3 phases. Toss up game.

11/27 at okie lite. they are always lying in wait, no matter what. Gundy a great coach. their young team (esp on O) will be much more seasoned by then and ready to play spoiler.


If healthy at key spots like Spencer and a few other *irreplaceable* spots, I see us going 11-1 with many close wins and a crappy nonconf which hurts us in the Playoff ranking.

Then at 11-1 and perhaps ranked #4 or lower in the playoff rankings, we head to Jerry's World to play a strong team in the B12 conf title game and we Lose. Yes, we Lose.

final record 11-2 and NO playoff this year.

This is my gut feeling. I am hopeful but I try as much as possible to put my fandom aside when analyzing a team and their prospects for the season.

Between the B12 schedule which is much stronger than some might think, and having to play one of those schools a second time (if, if, if we make it to Jerry's world), I am seeing at least 2 losses this year and looking on the outside for a second straight year in the CFB playoff.

Obviously, I am hoping I am wrong.

I welcome any and all comments and thoughts.

Thanks and enjoy the season, Fellas.

You would certainly know way more about the Sooners than me. And not that it really matters, but I'm a Buckeye diehard having lived in Columbus pretty much all my life. I think your average team/school fan tends to overrate their team. But with OU's expectations being ramped up higher than the past few years, I am wondering if you're just taking a logical, conservative approach. I mean, no team is mathematically projected to go 12-0 (not Bama, not Clemson, not Ohio St, no one). And the fan/media expectations that get created for the top tier teams are always ridiculous. So, if OU goes 11-1, many idiots will say they choked...that's how it works.

But some of my (not fully educated) thoughts on Oklahoma.....

Lincoln Riley just seems to "get it". In year one, mid-season, Riley canned Mike Stoops. Thought that took balls that most coaches don't have. Riley certainly understood quickly that to take the "next step", OU had to upgrade the defense.....and after a few years, they surely seem to be getting there. It sounds like there were personality clashes with some of the current staff when Grinch at Ohio St. His one year in Columbus saw Schiano's defense collapse, a defense that I don't believe Grinch was involved in much. But looking at what Grinch did at Wazzu prior, and OU since....it surely looks like it's Ohio St's loss.

I've bought into OU quite a bit more this year, and made some really small wagers.
  • Rattler for Heisman +800 (I looked at longer shots first looking for big value, but I still decided on Rattler)
  • Okl to win Nat'l title +800 (thought those odds and A&M +4000 which I also bet had the best value I saw)
  • Okl laying 18 (-109) against the Huskers. While the Huskers may be slightly improved, I think this one will be ugly.

While OU's RSW # of 11 is seemingly a little inflated.....like all the other top dogs, I was still considering betting the over. A rough calc of avg power ratings I threw together has OU of course at the top of the B12 followed by (in order): IaSt, Tex, TCU, OkSt, WV, TT. Of the other top 7 teams, OU plays 5 of them at home and gets Tex of course on a neutral site. OkSt is the only one OU has to play on their turf.

I know that history says a Manhattan trip to play KSt is never easy. I haven't seen a GOY line on that one, but would be thinking that one would be 3 TD's plus.
Riley's 2 regular season losses last year were his first....I don't see that happening with this year's squad.

Anyway....thanks for your post....good stuff, and best of luck to your Sooners.
 

majent

#1 Sooners Fan
Buck50 thanks for your great reply!

I think if the K-State line was set right now it would OU -13.5 or so.

K-State can easily be 3-1 going into that game on 10/2 and I can see the line being closer to 11.

OU *should* be 4-0 going into The Little Apple, but let's see.

Kleiman is in Y3, with 16 returning starters, a senior at QB in Skylar Thompson, and they went 4-6 LY with two of the losses coming by a total of 3 points.

I think that game is going to be a doozie!

And GL to your Buckeyes! great coach, great program!!
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
I took OU +800 to win it all. They should be 7+ point favorites in every game and should make the playoff. Compared to the other title contenders, OU might have the least question marks heading into the season imo. Absolutely loaded offense with a heisman favorite at qb, defense continues to dramatically improve with a very strong front seven, and two coaches I’m very high on in Reilly and Grinch.

I don’t know if they’ll win the title but I feel confident that they’ll be in the playoff.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Let's not forget that OU was up by 21 in the second half vs Kansas State...I know it has been back-to-back losses now, so feels like some kind of voodoo going on there.

The only way OU loses is if they beat themselves.. The conference isn't bad, it's just tremendously average, bunch of average offenses with some underrated defenses that compete closely with each other. This OU team doesn't look close in terms of these teams. Assuming Texas is down a notch, Ok St doesn't appear as dangerous as they sometimes are (still Gundy has only beat OU what twice in 16 years as coach?). ISU is rock solid, but also not a juggernaut. They led ISU 17-6 last year in the first game. One would hope that Rattler in year 2 doesn't make the kinds of mistakes that led to the losses last year. ISU is just hard nosed and veteran, so if they can get OU to play their style game it's going to be a game,, but if OU can play their game, get up like they did before 17-6 and 24-7 the second game vs two ISU games last year, get up and if they can keep it going instead of stalling out...really I don't see anyone in the league that can touch them. Same with TCU, solid team with some potential, just not close to being on the same level. OU is going to have to underachieve - and it sounds like that is what you are saying, not responding well to the hype and expectations. I would never rule out the possibility of even the best team being upset somewhere along the line, so it is possible they go 11-1 regular season. Unless OU's D is poor (maybe pass D is vulnerable but pass rush should help that) and their O is mistake prone (Rattler 3 INTs vs K St and 1 on the potential game winning drive vs ISU), I don't see how they play in as many close games as majent predicts. Honestly, if they do play in a lot of close games vs this version of the Big Xll (again, not bad, just very average) then they probably do not deserve a playoff spot anyway. "many close games".... I'm thinking, are they going to average north of 40 points per game? Almost certainly.. Then the D is going to have to be pretty bad to allow close to that with frequency. Maybe one or two close games and the belief should be that a more mature and experienced O and D should be able to find ways to win those.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
As an OU grad myself I saw that Kansas State game as a problem as soon as I looked at the schedule. The one plus there is that there is that there is a week off after Nebraska, but Texas is up next and it's hard for anyone who hasn't attended OU to realize how much attention the entire campus gives to the Texas game from the first day students arrive back on campus.

Another plus is we got more talent--and more talent we had a direct need for from the transfer portal--than any other school. I don't see a problem at RB unless injuries occur

One thing you didn't mention is how the move to the SEC is going to affect the season. Riley is already trying to deflect attention from it and keep his players from even thinking about it by announcing at his first press conference this week he would answer questions that day, but no more the rest of the season

There is another factor the press is ignoring. OU behaved in a deceitful and dishonorable fashion by spending six months pretending to be a loyal business partner, voting on future conference business, participating in fiduciary decisions, serving on committees, playing golf and having dinners and slapping back, then getting on the phone at night with SEC officials and making their real plans (illegal under both federal and state statues. I doubt the conference pursues criminal charges, but the US Attorney in Kansas, the Attorney General of Iowa, and legislators of three states are making noises about illegalities)

That kind of action usually arouses opposing coaches and players to their best efforts

As for a national title, I'll have to see the OU defense before I believe there is a chance. We've had the offense to win one the last few years, but the defense has just not been capable of winning one. Grinch is on the right path, but we had a LONG way to go after the Mike Stoops disaster
 
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majent

#1 Sooners Fan
As an OU grad myself I saw that Kansas State game as a problem as soon as I looked at the schedule. The one plus there is that there is that there is a week off after Nebraska, but Texas is up next and it's hard for anyone who hasn't attended OU to realize how much attention the entire campus gives to the Texas game from the first day students arrive back on campus.

Another plus is we got more talent--and more talent we had a direct need for--than any other school. I don't see a problem at RB unless injuries occur

One thing you didn't mention is how the move to the SEC is going to affect the season. Riley is already trying to deflect attention from it and keep his players from even thinking about it by announcing at his first press conference this week he would answer questions that day, but no more the rest of the season

There is another factor the press is ignoring. OU behaved in a deceitful and dishonorable fashion by spending six months pretending to be a loyal business partner, voting on future conference business, participating in fiduciary decisions, serving on committees, playing golf and having dinners and slapping back, then getting on the phone at night with SEC officials and making their real plans (illegal under both federal and state statues. I doubt the conference pursues criminal charges, but the US Attorney in Kansas, the Attorney General of Iowa, and legislators of three states are making noises about illegalities)

That kind of action usually arouses opposing coaches and players to their best efforts


As for a national title, I'll have to see the OU defense before I believe there is a chance. We've had the offense to win one the last few years, but the defense has just not been capable of winning one. Grinch is on the right path, but we had a LONG way to go after the Mike Stoops disaster

Excellent Point !!! Double Target on their backs the whole season in conference. (one for the top 2-3 ranking preseason that should last into the start of conference season and another for the SEC bolt)
 

majent

#1 Sooners Fan
Let's not forget that OU was up by 21 in the second half vs Kansas State...I know it has been back-to-back losses now, so feels like some kind of voodoo going on there.

The only way OU loses is if they beat themselves.. The conference isn't bad, it's just tremendously average, bunch of average offenses with some underrated defenses that compete closely with each other. This OU team doesn't look close in terms of these teams. Assuming Texas is down a notch, Ok St doesn't appear as dangerous as they sometimes are (still Gundy has only beat OU what twice in 16 years as coach?). ISU is rock solid, but also not a juggernaut. They led ISU 17-6 last year in the first game. One would hope that Rattler in year 2 doesn't make the kinds of mistakes that led to the losses last year. ISU is just hard nosed and veteran, so if they can get OU to play their style game it's going to be a game,, but if OU can play their game, get up like they did before 17-6 and 24-7 the second game vs two ISU games last year, get up and if they can keep it going instead of stalling out...really I don't see anyone in the league that can touch them. Same with TCU, solid team with some potential, just not close to being on the same level. OU is going to have to underachieve - and it sounds like that is what you are saying, not responding well to the hype and expectations. I would never rule out the possibility of even the best team being upset somewhere along the line, so it is possible they go 11-1 regular season. Unless OU's D is poor (maybe pass D is vulnerable but pass rush should help that) and their O is mistake prone (Rattler 3 INTs vs K St and 1 on the potential game winning drive vs ISU), I don't see how they play in as many close games as majent predicts. Honestly, if they do play in a lot of close games vs this version of the Big Xll (again, not bad, just very average) then they probably do not deserve a playoff spot anyway. "many close games".... I'm thinking, are they going to average north of 40 points per game? Almost certainly.. Then the D is going to have to be pretty bad to allow close to that with frequency. Maybe one or two close games and the belief should be that a more mature and experienced O and D should be able to find ways to win those.

At least one regular season loss or loss in the conference title game is a virtual certainty these days.

Just look at the last 5 to 7 years and try to find how many teams have gone undefeated in the reg season + conf title game.

You might be able to count them on one hand !!
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
You would certainly know way more about the Sooners than me. And not that it really matters, but I'm a Buckeye diehard having lived in Columbus pretty much all my life. I think your average team/school fan tends to overrate their team. But with OU's expectations being ramped up higher than the past few years, I am wondering if you're just taking a logical, conservative approach. I mean, no team is mathematically projected to go 12-0 (not Bama, not Clemson, not Ohio St, no one). And the fan/media expectations that get created for the top tier teams are always ridiculous. So, if OU goes 11-1, many idiots will say they choked...that's how it works.

But some of my (not fully educated) thoughts on Oklahoma.....

Lincoln Riley just seems to "get it". In year one, mid-season, Riley canned Mike Stoops. Thought that took balls that most coaches don't have. Riley certainly understood quickly that to take the "next step", OU had to upgrade the defense.....and after a few years, they surely seem to be getting there. It sounds like there were personality clashes with some of the current staff when Grinch at Ohio St. His one year in Columbus saw Schiano's defense collapse, a defense that I don't believe Grinch was involved in much. But looking at what Grinch did at Wazzu prior, and OU since....it surely looks like it's Ohio St's loss.

I've bought into OU quite a bit more this year, and made some really small wagers.
  • Rattler for Heisman +800 (I looked at longer shots first looking for big value, but I still decided on Rattler)
  • Okl to win Nat'l title +800 (thought those odds and A&M +4000 which I also bet had the best value I saw)
  • Okl laying 18 (-109) against the Huskers. While the Huskers may be slightly improved, I think this one will be ugly.

While OU's RSW # of 11 is seemingly a little inflated.....like all the other top dogs, I was still considering betting the over. A rough calc of avg power ratings I threw together has OU of course at the top of the B12 followed by (in order): IaSt, Tex, TCU, OkSt, WV, TT. Of the other top 7 teams, OU plays 5 of them at home and gets Tex of course on a neutral site. OkSt is the only one OU has to play on their turf.

I know that history says a Manhattan trip to play KSt is never easy. I haven't seen a GOY line on that one, but would be thinking that one would be 3 TD's plus.
Riley's 2 regular season losses last year were his first....I don't see that happening with this year's squad.

Anyway....thanks for your post....good stuff, and best of luck to your Sooners.
Great post
 

majent

#1 Sooners Fan
"9/4 @ Tulane -Mean Green have 16 starters back and seem well coached by Fritz. tricky game but I think we win by DD when it's said and done. still, tricky first game on the road."

I said this back on August 7th before the Hurricane moved the game to Norman.
 

Teapot9

Marquette Park. Deep Dish. Arm Wrestling.
And everything possible about covid.

“I’m a medial device salesman!!”

That was fun….

Hopefully you don’t have to meet Kansas in the BigXII title game
 

majent

#1 Sooners Fan
anyone in the thread still believe the Sooner D is "stronger" this year

it is only game but it is extremely concerning to me giving up that many points at home to a Tulane O that should not have moved the ball like this...
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
It was a gutless performance by OU defensively. Offensively, I was disappointed in their run game. Just sorta felt like they were sleep walking the entire second half. Outside of the second quarter, Tulane was the better team quite frankly in the other three quarters
 

majent

#1 Sooners Fan
If the D does not step up big time (nothing has me believing they will) then Bolded Games below feel ominous, not to mention hosting Nebraska and TexTech who i happen to think are better teams than maybe some others believe.

9/18 v Nebraska.

10/2 at K State.

10/9 v texasss.


10/16 v TCU.

10/30 v Tex Tech.

11/13 at Baylor.

11/20 v Iowa State.

11/27 at okie lite.
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
Hunt and I were messaging each other about my beloved OU Sooners and I thought I would share my penny or two of how I am feeling going into the season.

I am looking forward to CFB again but regarding my Sooners I am uncomfortable.

I don't like that big target that the Top 5 teams and especially the Top 2 get on them, preseason, unless it's Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, schools like this who seem immune to the pressure.

The Sooners do Not seem immune to this pressure even going back to the Stoops days.

On paper, we look pretty strong in all 3 phases but our young Center and RB's will have to step up.

Let's look at the schedule:

9/4 @ Tulane -Mean Green have 16 starters back and seem well coached by Fritz. tricky game but I think we win by DD when it's said and done. still, tricky first game on the road.

9/18 v Nebraska. I expect the Huskers to a be much improved team but it probably does not show up this early in the season and in Norman. I think we win comfortably on the scoreboard but only because it is early in the season and at home. Without those two factors I could see the margin being inside of 10 had it been later in the year and at Lincoln (like it is next year :-O)

10/2 at K State. Need I say anymore? Toss up game IMO.

10/9 v texasss. no comments necessary. they are young at QB and brand new coach, but is the RRR. very unpredictable. i will say we win, but not easy at all.

10/16 v TCU. Patterson is a witch. tons of returning starters incl QB. very tough game. we sneak by this one if both teams healthy at key spots.

10/30 v Tex Tech. Wells' team in Year 3 under him could break out this year. we win, but closer than it looks on paper.

11/13 at Baylor. Aranda, at home, in year 2. Look out. close win.

11/20 v Iowa State. Campbell, Purdy, Breece. what a coach, what a QB, and what a RB. even more, what a team around on them in all 3 phases. Toss up game.

11/27 at okie lite. they are always lying in wait, no matter what. Gundy a great coach. their young team (esp on O) will be much more seasoned by then and ready to play spoiler.


If healthy at key spots like Spencer and a few other *irreplaceable* spots, I see us going 11-1 with many close wins and a crappy nonconf which hurts us in the Playoff ranking.

Then at 11-1 and perhaps ranked #4 or lower in the playoff rankings, we head to Jerry's World to play a strong team in the B12 conf title game and we Lose. Yes, we Lose.

final record 11-2 and NO playoff this year.

This is my gut feeling. I am hopeful but I try as much as possible to put my fandom aside when analyzing a team and their prospects for the season.

Between the B12 schedule which is much stronger than some might think, and having to play one of those schools a second time (if, if, if we make it to Jerry's world), I am seeing at least 2 losses this year and looking on the outside for a second straight year in the CFB playoff.

Obviously, I am hoping I am wrong.

I welcome any and all comments and thoughts.

Thanks and enjoy the season, Fellas.

You're wrong. Sooners to the cfp. Good to see you bro.
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
Hunt, My Brother, good health to you and yours!

I don't see OUr D holding up the whole season. I was worried well before Game One and you saw what Tulane did.. OUch !!!


Thank you sir. Same to you!

This week will tell a lot. Let's see how they handle business in a game they should win by 20+. No hurricane stuff, venue changes, first game jitters, etc. I think they got some kinks worked out game 2. I hope they go far for you man. I know how much you love your sooners!
 

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