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MLB Thursday 10/14

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
YTD +7805
2-1 last - How the hell did that happen?

Today is Wednesday 10/13 and except for NBA preseason (which doesn't count) and hockey (that's played on ice right?) there are no sports to bet on today. So I thought it would be a good day to post my MLB game 5 for Thursday.

LA/SF over 5 (buying 1 1/2 runs) -300 x50

First of all, do I like this over 6 1/2 -110? Yes. Do I like this over 6 at -140? Yes. I like it even better over 5 no matter what the odds are but then I like any game over 5 no matter where it's played or who pitches. Why? 2-2 just isn't a big hill to climb in baseball. Could it go under 5? It could but it won't and here's why.

Both these starters did very well in their last start in this playoff series. In fact, they both pitched extremely well. And that doesn't matter in the least because this is a deciding game and in deciding games it is very rare for starters to go more than 6 innings. Usually less than 5. They are even told before the game don't hold anything back, let it go, and that usually results in their burning out even before the 5th is over. Worse than that, if you even give up 2 runs to the opposition at any time you are sent to the showers. Then follows a parade of relievers that in the old days wasn't a problem but today they have to face at least 3 batters and that is a big problem. But great for over bettors. LA bullpen has been suspect all year and SF bullpen has already been overused this series. Why in the fuck would you use 7 relief pitchers in a game you trailed 5-1 AND that was a free game. If you lose you still go home for game #5. You should have thrown one of the reserve left fielders in relief the final 4 innings and hoped the Dodgers got exhausted running the bases and scoring 30 runs. I forgot til last night why Philly ran Kapler out of town for his managing gaffs. Really stupid to do that. "Here LA, have a look at all my relievers now so you are ready to kick my ass when you see them again in two days and the best part is I am going to tire them out for you so when you do see them again in the series finale it will be easier for you to hit them." Seriously, Kapler probably lost game #5 during game #4.

As for a side, there is not enough +runs in the world that I would feel safe betting SF with. I think the Dodgers are a great bet at +100 and LA +2 1/2 -350 is the best bet I have seen in probably 20 years but I have SF alive for the pennant and series wins so I don't want to hedge those with an LA bet even though that would be the smart thing to do. I have been accused of being many things in my life but being smart was never one of them. I would suggest you be smarter than me and climb all over LA in this game. + runs and SF can even pull off the miracle and you still cash.

Awww hell, I talked myself into it........

LA +2 1/2 -350 x50

I seriously need to learn to shut up. Remember the good old days when I never gave reasons for my bets? Life was much simpler then. GL
 
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cashflowmatters

Where the cash flows, matters
Always appreciate your reasoning in mlb , keep up the solid work, GL on the action my friend and I will see you at the cashiers window
 

inZane

Well-Known Member
Good luck Wire! So far I'm 0-3 on my series bets, and I too have the Giants.

I can't possibly go 0-4 right?

:popcorn:
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Thanks Inzane. I also have SF as my lone series team but I know I’m not good at that so i didn’t spend a lot on it but yes I think the Giants are going to be beaten tonight. Would like to be wrong. GL
 

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