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MLB Off-season...

brewers888

Chicken Little
Blue Jays sign Marcus Semien for 1 yr 18 million. There were rumors that the Brewers were involved and I’m happy we avoided this deal. It’s only one year so no big deal but this is a huge overpay for a guy that had one great season and has been bad every other season in his career.
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
Blue Jays sign Marcus Semien for 1 yr 18 million. There were rumors that the Brewers were involved and I’m happy we avoided this deal. It’s only one year so no big deal but this is a huge overpay for a guy that had one great season and has been bad every other season in his career.

Blue Jay's are stacked offensively.

So impressive.

Are the Yanks flawed? Can/will the Blue Jay's win east?
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Blue Jays sign Marcus Semien for 1 yr 18 million. There were rumors that the Brewers were involved and I’m happy we avoided this deal. It’s only one year so no big deal but this is a huge overpay for a guy that had one great season and has been bad every other season in his career.


His WAR the last 5 years is

2.1
1.7 (only 85 games)
3.9
7.6
1.2 (52 games)

Very much the opposite of bad

Good article on fangraphs about him a few months ago
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
That would be brilliant.


I see Yanks dropped to-189 from -200 a few days ago

Blue Jay's dropped from +450 to +400

I always underestimate the Ray's. It's a bad habit.
Jay's lineup will be great, and price is maybe a bit high, but to have a legit shot they need more pitching badly

Right now an injury to ryu, or Pearson not reaching his potential, and the rotation looks real rough
 

brewers888

Chicken Little
His WAR the last 5 years is

2.1
1.7 (only 85 games)
3.9
7.6
1.2 (52 games)

Very much the opposite of bad

Good article on fangraphs about him a few months ago
Other than 2019 his offensive numbers are below league average. Good for the Jays that they have that kind of money to waste but Semien is not worth 18 million.
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
Jay's lineup will be great, and price is maybe a bit high, but to have a legit shot they need more pitching badly

Right now an injury to ryu, or Pearson not reaching his potential, and the rotation looks real rough

I need to keep reminding myself, pitcher strength is more valuable than offensive might.

TB sits at +350. They give up Snell. Morton. Alvarado and I'm guessing they are still deep.
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
How am I supposed to bet WS and Larussa? That team is popular and will build in popularity. I need to play Twins somehow.

Team totals I will look at Tigers over on drop
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I thought Simmons was a better fit for Toronto and Semien for the Twins. Semien probably isn't worth $18 million but Toronto has to overpay to get guys.
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
This. Would have preferred Simmons as well

Just traded for matz in exchange for Reid foley
Matz is a no 3 at best, but not a horrible trade. If he can stay healthy he should be able to win games w that offense. Still need Bauer, unless you’re relying on Ray, Pearson, Kay, hatch, merriweather
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Matz is a no 3 at best, but not a horrible trade. If he can stay healthy he should be able to win games w that offense. Still need Bauer, unless you’re relying on Ray, Pearson, Kay, hatch, merriweather
Really don’t want 3 lefties in the starting rotation. Right now it’s like these 5: ray, Ryu, roark, Pearson and matz. Stripling will contend but 3 lefties in the al east is usually a bloodbath
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
Really don’t want 3 lefties in the starting rotation. Right now it’s like these 5: ray, Ryu, roark, Pearson and matz. Stripling will contend but 3 lefties in the al east is usually a bloodbath
Not exactly a stellar rotation. Basically banking on Ray finding his all star form and Pearson and Matz reaching their potential. Luckily the pen is solid but don’t want them having to overextend it all year
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Not exactly a stellar rotation. Basically banking on Ray finding his all star form and Pearson and Matz reaching their potential. Luckily the pen is solid but don’t want them having to overextend it all year
It's average at best, and Ryu's already average velo was dropping towards the end of last year... Really want to ease Pearson in the 3 or 4... even if it's Walker I don't mind, but need another arm for sure. Unless we think Chatwood is the answer.. then you have Roark who tells management he wants to stay longer in games and is at a 80 pitch count through 2.1 IP
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
It's average at best, and Ryu's already average velo was dropping towards the end of last year... Really want to ease Pearson in the 3 or 4... even if it's Walker I don't mind, but need another arm for sure. Unless we think Chatwood is the answer.. then you have Roark who tells management he wants to stay longer in games and is at a 80 pitch count through 2.1 IP
Yeah Roark isn’t exactly economical w his pc. Not sure on their thinking w chatwood I didn’t think he was all that special. Really surprised they weren’t aggressive w Walker as he was really good for them, but I’d like to see another innings eater even if it’s a no 3.
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
I'm starting to figure out fangraphs. Dan szym is amazing.

He has Twins and WS as tossups but if the WS staff stays healthy, they are scary.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Yeah Roark isn’t exactly economical w his pc. Not sure on their thinking w chatwood I didn’t think he was all that special. Really surprised they weren’t aggressive w Walker as he was really good for them, but I’d like to see another innings eater even if it’s a no 3.
Toronto is also willing to trade from its major-league roster to acquire what it's looking for. Outfielders Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are drawing interest from rival teams, according to Murray.

The Blue Jays already acquired George Springer, Marcus Semien, Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood, and Steven Matz this offseason.


EXCELLENT news if Randal is out..Lourdes I'd love to keep cause I think he's on the cusp but if it's bringing back a nice arm I don't mind.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
I'm starting to figure out fangraphs. Dan szym is amazing.

He has Twins and WS as tossups but if the WS staff stays healthy, they are scary.
I'm not sure if I'm as high as you on that WS staff...after Giolito and Lynn and losing Crochet it's hard for me to have any hope in Caese, Lopez and Keuchel
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
Arenado to St Louis rumors. Buy the rumor?

Getting back Wainwright for at least one more run is a coup for the Cardinals as currently constructed. Flaherty will likely return to being the ace, but after him and Kwang Hyun Kim, there are a lot of question marks in the rotation. Dakota Hudson will miss the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery, and while Miles Mikolas seemed to have avoided a tear that would have required him to undergo the same procedure, any pitcher recovering from forearm surgery comes with enormous risk. Carlos Martinez hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2017 and had a rough 2020 season delayed by a bout of COVID-19 that put him in the hospital. The belief is the Cardinals still would prefer Alex Reyes to work out as a starter, but given his injury history, it wouldn’t take many setbacks for them to pull the plug and use him out of the ‘pen.
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
I'm not sure if I'm as high as you on that WS staff...after Giolito and Lynn and losing Crochet it's hard for me to have any hope in Caese, Lopez and Keuchel

I'm glad to know that. It helps with my perspective. Twins line looks like a reasonable pick, and perhaps an easy hedge if they get going quick. I will just have to wait 8 months to get paid.
 

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
don't forget about kopech.

chisox are solid across the field/thru the lineup. young exciting team, and will be there with the twinks all the way.
giolito, lynn...solid front end. keuchel, kopech, cease, lopez...serviceable mid rotation, with serious upside in kopech/cease if/whenever healthy and shit together. hendricks, crochet, bummer...pretty solid back end of the pen too.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
don't forget about kopech.

chisox are solid across the field/thru the lineup. young exciting team, and will be there with the twinks all the way.
giolito, lynn...solid front end. keuchel, kopech, cease, lopez...serviceable mid rotation, with serious upside in kopech/cease if/whenever healthy and shit together. hendricks, crochet, bummer...pretty solid back end of the pen too.
I must be down more than most in Cease, but I just don’t think he’s there just yet. You’re right, I did forget about Kopech; I’m just not sure what you get behind Lynn and Gio. Gonna be a fun FULL year
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
NL West

196 wins are the most ZiPS has ever projected for the top two teams in a division. Combine that with the closeness of the projections — you need a decimal point to separate the two teams in the standings — and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that this is the best divisional race ZiPS has ever projected, going on two decades of prognostications.
 
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