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ML Dogs Week 2 Edition

ProV1Colt

CTG Moderator
Staff member
alright, Alright, Alright !! glad to see everyone back this week. Good to see some football on all the TVs at home & at the bars & restaurants.

Getting this thread started for Week 2

Who we got out there this week that looks like a winner!
I was hoping to see Pitt as a dog but it looks like they opened as the favorite in Knoxville…..
 

ProV1Colt

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Just in the contest alone we had 12 Dogs hit and 2 gms left

Illinois (not in our picks) to start off the year.

Friday Night we had 4 ML Dogs hit.
(VT, Charlotte, Mich St, South Dakota St)

N Illinois, Utah St we’re the 2 big hits this week

if you were lucky enough to get ETSU at +791 or +1071 beating Vandy. Congrats
ETSU cost me a handful of ML Parlays
 

twinkie13

Principal at Newman
LSU plays McNeese St this weekend. Ed O’s son is the QB. LSU will try and take it out on someone but it’s his kid over there, so just putting that here. Not a popular game to wager I would think but just wanted to out here for context
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
i dont see nearly as many appealing dogs this week but im gonna keep digging.. already been mentioned but iowa def worth a hard look.. app state i think with the points for sure, really tough game for canes coming off the drumming by bama, be interesting to see how they respond? the wheels could really fall off if app st comes in and punches them in the mouth.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
tcu laying -10.5 to cal? i dunno if we get a outright here but ill take the points all day!
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Western Kentucky certainly has a shot.

This WKU coaching staff beat Army in 2019 as home dog. Now that Army team was in a funk, not a good season for them. But this WKU team should be better than that one, most especially on offense - and thinking goes that the service academies can struggle vs good pass-happy attacks since they can't replicate it in practice and have lesser athletes in the secondary (or fewer of them). Reminds me a little when San Jose was ascending in 2019 with Josh Love at QB, they played at West Point as 9pt dog (and won) with Love throwing for 10 ypa and a 3-0 ratio passing for over 300y and 64%. Again, the 2019 Army team was a poor one. We can look at last year vs Tulane, Pratt completed 70% with a 2-0 ratio. In his other 9 games taking out Army last year, Pratt only completed 53% of his passes. WKU should put up some good numbers. WKU only played an FCS week 1 and has bye on deck, I would assume they spent a good bit of camp working on option defense.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Western Kentucky certainly has a shot.

This WKU coaching staff beat Army in 2019 as home dog. Now that Army team was in a funk, not a good season for them. But this WKU team should be better than that one, most especially on offense - and thinking goes that the service academies can struggle vs good pass-happy attacks since they can't replicate it in practice and have lesser athletes in the secondary (or fewer of them). Reminds me a little when San Jose was ascending in 2019 with Josh Love at QB, they played at West Point as 9pt dog (and won) with Love throwing for 10 ypa and a 3-0 ratio passing for over 300y and 64%. Again, the 2019 Army team was a poor one. We can look at last year vs Tulane, Pratt completed 70% with a 2-0 ratio. In his other 9 games taking out Army last year, Pratt only completed 53% of his passes. WKU should put up some good numbers. WKU only played an FCS week 1 and has bye on deck, I would assume they spent a good bit of camp working on option defense.

I’ve always looked at the service academies being incredibly tough for teams to prepare for since they couldn’t run their offense in practice. Never really thought bout them having a equally tough time preparing for air raid type or any other well executed passing attacks! Good point!! I really hate the early start, that the only thing keep me from taking the over to pound town!! Lol
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
I’ve always looked at the service academies being incredibly tough for teams to prepare for since they couldn’t run their offense in practice. Never really thought bout them having a equally tough time preparing for air raid type or any other well executed passing attacks! Good point!! I really hate the early start, that the only thing keep me from taking the over to pound town!! Lol
I will not be against Army on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Zero chance and WKU dominance in their last game makes it much easier to stay away from them.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I will not be against Army on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Zero chance and WKU dominance in their last game makes it much easier to stay away from them.

their 1st game doesn’t matter much to me, other than solidifying the new look air raid offense. Didn’t even think bout or realize the 9-11 anniversary, you probably right not a good time to fade any the service academies. I’m much more interested in the total anyways. If it wasn’t for the early ass start I’d have already bet the over! Not sure if im gonna ignore it and fire anyways or wait and look for a chance to bet live/at half?
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I kinda want to think Toledo is capable of giving ND a game. The ND OL that lost 3 NFL draft picks plus a 4th who was an UFA player didn't look so good vs FSU. That TE Mayer would be hard to deal with. FSU run game really gashed them...suppose nobody on that team is happy with that performance and this would be their game to atone for that.

Feel like I have lost a handle on this Toledo team. On paper they appear strong. Not sure what I think of their QB. I know Koback, he's a good RB. Phil Steele likes their WRs, none of them ever left a memory with me like Toledo WRs of years past. Phil Steele likes their OL and calls their DL and DBs the best in the MAC while LB unit comes in #2. They always routinely land the some of the best recruiting classes in the MAC.

The problem is they don't really play that well all the time, even in the MAC. They should be better but are always dropping games they shouldn't. And vs Power 5 and good nonconference teams they don't do well...even though they should.

Guess I'm talking about it to see if anyone else has an opinion. I'm like, if Toledo were to beat Notre Dame I wouldn't at all be surprised, but at the same time, I can't tell anyone how or why it might happen. ND getting whipped at the LOS again would have to be it?
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
UDUB over Michigan?

Could happen. I like the chances of great effort out of their OL which got beat badly last week. Biggest concern is an offense that already lacked explosiveness is down a bunch of WRs. I'll be happy to take the points and figure on a close game, not sure right now I'd want to go further than that.
 

Rusty Trombone

Well-Known Member
Most of the service academy kids weren't alive or were toddlers when 9/11 occurred, so they emotions of seeing the events unfold that day arent there.....not saying its not an angle, but attachment can't be artificial
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Never tried it before but actually thinking of doing an eight team ML dog round robin just for the fun of it this weekend. Any thoughts on best strategy (2s, 2s/3s, 3s) or should I just give it a shot and not overthink it?
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Never tried it before but actually thinking of doing an eight team ML dog round robin just for the fun of it this weekend. Any thoughts on best strategy (2s, 2s/3s, 3s) or should I just give it a shot and not overthink it?
Here are the first 6 I am thinking…NIU Rice Arkansas Ga Southern WKU and Buffalo. Trying to pick 2 of the following to round it out…BYU Cal ILL Akron also Hawaii is on the list as well

Any thoughts?
 
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KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Like a couple and don't like a couple

Trying the round robin dog thing, go with your gut, they're dogs so it will take something unexpected anyway, I wouldn't look for help on something like that
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Like a couple and don't like a couple

Trying the round robin dog thing, go with your gut, they're dogs so it will take something unexpected anyway, I wouldn't look for help on something like that
Fair enough, just wasn’t sure if playing 2s or 3s or whatever was the smarter way to go. Would not do anything crazy as i would only risk only 1.1 units total so would be same as losing a single play if I swing and miss on all 8.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron was one I was going to get into. Hawaii has shot too.
Finding weak favorites is half the battle.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I don't parlay anything. I think one of the best thing about dog MLs, if you play TD+ dogs you can make money winning 1 out of 3. And the worst thing about parlays is you have to win everything on it. That's hard to align many teams that aren't supposed to win to actually win. I don't know the odds on a dog parlay, my general view on parlays is just play them all straight. Maybe you can enlighten me?
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Akron was one I was going to get into. Hawaii has shot too.
Finding weak favorites is half the battle.
Yeah that’s actually how I am approaching it, as I am looking for favs that are weak or not overly impressive. Just trying something different this week for fun as we are only talking 1.1 if it blows up in my face. Gonna hold off for now though as it looks like a few dogs will have more value later in the week. I’m sure the most likely scenario will be no outright wins but every dog covers haha.
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
I don't parlay anything. I think one of the best thing about dog MLs, if you play TD+ dogs you can make money winning 1 out of 3. And the worst thing about parlays is you have to win everything on it. That's hard to align many teams that aren't supposed to win to actually win. I don't know the odds on a dog parlay, my general view on parlays is just play them all straight. Maybe you can enlighten me?
Only reason I was thinking round robin is because it takes the all or nothing out of it but you are right, I probably should just play each for like 25 bucks instead of doing a round robin, guess I was more about mitigation of risk since dogs aren’t really my thing but in the mood to try something different this week for kicks.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I don't parlay anything. I think one of the best thing about dog MLs, if you play TD+ dogs you can make money winning 1 out of 3. And the worst thing about parlays is you have to win everything on it. That's hard to align many teams that aren't supposed to win to actually win. I don't know the odds on a dog parlay, my general view on parlays is just play them all straight. Maybe you can enlighten me?

i do RR’s in groups of 2’s so it isn’t all or nothing. I don’t do as many on dog mls like jRock does on the big dogs, the payout fantastic but obviously tough to win bunch of them. I do like RR for smaller dogs or ats plays cause it can really Jack up the winnings on good days with somewhat minimal risk. I like to play 4 teams with groups of 2 so it 6 parlays total, hit 3 of 4 and you do really well (especially with plus money mls), hit 2 of 4 and you not losing much, hit all 4 and your account looks nice! I usually do a few every week! Lol
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
JRock loves that stuff so he can give insight
LOL....I've been totally sucking...haven't hit a parlay in over 2 years. Last one I hit was in May of 2019 in baseball season. I am getting to the point now where I am considering stopping. :oops:
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Hey Vols or JR, can you give perspective on the RR route?
ok well...the reason I got into it is because of the low-risk/high-reward line of thinking because, for me personally, no matter how I gamble I always lose. I'm a pretty bad gambler and was in risk of needing GA there for a while....prolly a good argument still for GA. :eek: So I try to keep to a small monthly budget and have some fun watching the games with the excitement of possibly winning big.

1 thing to consider from a dude who used to post on blankets (TheParlayPicker was his handle) is he never did more than 4-teamer RRs and never had a team in the wager with less than +200 odds. He said that he calculated if he could hit at least 2 out of 4 then he would at least earn his initial stake back. I would do more than 4-teamers and my losing experience has shown that is often extremely difficult to hit. For more than a 4-teamer, I do believe you need to sprinkle in a stronger ML play(s) (+150 odds for example) in there to help your odds of reaching/hitting at least 3 out of 5 or even 4 out of 6 etc. etc.

Good luck!!
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
ok well...the reason I got into it is because of the low-risk/high-reward line of thinking because, for me personally, no matter how I gamble I always lose. I'm a pretty bad gambler and was in risk of needing GA there for a while....prolly a good argument still for GA. :eek: So I try to keep to a small monthly budget and have some fun watching the games with the excitement of possibly winning big.

1 thing to consider from a dude who used to post on blankets (TheParlayPicker was his handle) is he never did more than 4-teamer RRs and never had a team in the wager with less than +200 odds. He said that he calculated if he could hit at least 2 out of 4 then he would at least earn his initial stake back. I would do more than 4-teamers and my losing experience has shown that is often extremely difficult to hit. For more than a 4-teamer, I do believe you need to sprinkle in a stronger ML play(s) (+150 odds for example) in there to help your odds of reaching/hitting at least 3 out of 5 or even 4 out of 6 etc. etc.

Good luck!!
prolly a little TMI in there somewhere....sorry bout that.
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
ok well...the reason I got into it is because of the low-risk/high-reward line of thinking because, for me personally, no matter how I gamble I always lose. I'm a pretty bad gambler and was in risk of needing GA there for a while....prolly a good argument still for GA. :eek: So I try to keep to a small monthly budget and have some fun watching the games with the excitement of possibly winning big.

1 thing to consider from a dude who used to post on blankets (TheParlayPicker was his handle) is he never did more than 4-teamer RRs and never had a team in the wager with less than +200 odds. He said that he calculated if he could hit at least 2 out of 4 then he would at least earn his initial stake back. I would do more than 4-teamers and my losing experience has shown that is often extremely difficult to hit. For more than a 4-teamer, I do believe you need to sprinkle in a stronger ML play(s) (+150 odds for example) in there to help your odds of reaching/hitting at least 3 out of 5 or even 4 out of 6 etc. etc.

Good luck!!
Appreciate man, great stuff and thanks for taking the time to respond! I guess I should just stick to what I am good at as I was doing this more out of trying something different, but the more I think about it, if I truly approach this like investing (like I say I do), then I shouldn't be playing stuff that I don't know inside and out and have a firm foundation on, so with that said, I am sure that all 8 of my underdogs I would have played will hit and I will miss out on a 5 figure payout LOL. It's funny because in my head my thinking is that if I actually played all the plays I never hit submit on, I would have retired by now, but reality is, there are just as many losers as winners in those unsubmitted plays, it's just that I only remember the ones that would have hit. Think I am just gonna stick to straight plays and leave the RRs, Parlays and ML Dogs to you guys! Thanks again man!
 

brewers888

Chicken Little
i dont see nearly as many appealing dogs this week but im gonna keep digging.. already been mentioned but iowa def worth a hard look.. app state i think with the points for sure, really tough game for canes coming off the drumming by bama, be interesting to see how they respond? the wheels could really fall off if app st comes in and punches them in the mouth.
I am more than happy to fade Mandy in hopes that a disastrous season will end his tenure but this is the type of game where Miami rolls.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Air Force - Navy
-Home team has won 8 straight
-Tai Lavatai started at QB vs Marshall was injured and may not play.
-Xavier Arline is likely starter at QB, he started several games last year including at Army (and played vs AF)
-this game was moved up a month earlier than normal to purposefully play on the 20th anniversary of September 11th

Navy put up 398 yards of offense last week, but only scored 7 points due to 1-for-5 RZ scoring. 398 yards of O is more than all but one of their games from 2020. Mids had a 41-19 TOP edge as well. Navy's gross RY were 385 before factoring sacks, which they were sacked 9x. So while the lopsided loss is reminiscent of how Navy opened 2020, their actual play is quite different (you might remember Navy infamously had no-contact practices leading up to the season opener last year due to covid precautions).

Marshall picked Navy's D apart as the Mids got no pressure on Wells dropping 7-8 in coverage while Wells just found windows to put the ball. That defensive gameplan and that style of offense obvisously won't be on display this week. Navy held Marshall's run game to 101y on 30 attempts.

Air Force blew Navy out in game #3 last year, some of which could be attributed to Navy's lack of physical contact practicing over the summer. TY were 410-241 (6.6-4.5). AF did dominate the game, but the 40-7 score is misleading in that AF tacked on two 4th Q TDs following an INT (38y drive) and SOD (29y drive). Earlier in the game AF also had FG drives of 35 and 12 yards following SOD and fumble. Navy was a better 38% on 3rd down vs AF's 22% (Navy 1-of-3 4th down, AF no 4th down att).

4 of the last 9 games have been upsets. Dog is 5-4 ATS last 9.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
They beat them 45-10 last season on the road. Maybe I will be wrong as usual but Miami wins this game easily.

im still not sure what exactly im taking from last season? def trying to avoid being one these ppl who seem to pick and choose how relevant last year results were, that annoys me!!! what the point in capping these things if all you doing is finding ways to spin the results to suite ya? (not talking bout anyone in particular, just something i been noticing from the bobble heads ob tv)...
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
im still not sure what exactly im taking from last season? def trying to avoid being one these ppl who seem to pick and choose how relevant last year results were, that annoys me!!! what the point in capping these things if all you doing is finding ways to spin the results to suite ya? (not talking bout anyone in particular, just something i been noticing from the bobble heads ob tv)...
I think it's fair to be selective about last season to a degree, better p5 teams who lost alot compared to some G5 teams who likely held on to players for another year they wouldn't have had this season
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I think it's fair to be selective about last season to a degree, better p5 teams who lost alot compared to some G5 teams who likely held on to players for another year they wouldn't have had this season

yea i agree, there is def room to discard some things while taking something away from others on a case by case basis,, just tough to figure out that line!! as i said i have just heard one guy make blanket statement about throwing last year out while in same breath pointing to something that happened last year! that a tough pill to swallow!!
 

brewers888

Chicken Little
im still not sure what exactly im taking from last season? def trying to avoid being one these ppl who seem to pick and choose how relevant last year results were, that annoys me!!! what the point in capping these things if all you doing is finding ways to spin the results to suite ya? (not talking bout anyone in particular, just something i been noticing from the bobble heads ob tv)...
Its not too often when an App St gets an actual home game against a name program so it was a really big deal for them playing Miami at home and they were blown out. Maybe the tables are turned this season but this is the type of game Miami is expected to be flat where they actually play well and win big.

I've pointed out many times that I am usually wrong and don't want anyone relying on my picks but my money is on Miami this week.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
So we can get better than 2-1 on a game that was a pick’em before last week?!??! Not sure I like udub but sure does feel like a must play considering!!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
No worries. Just a superior breed of athlete. No measurement on heart, but they will "look" like the superior team athletically. Surprised you've never heard that phrase.

gotcha. Yea, never have. It is odd since I’m all about interesting sayings to Describe teams and results!

I’m not real confident in that game, line keeps getting bet up, if I can get a +10 don’t think I can pass on appy state. Some teams im confident will bounce back after a ass kicking or just a loss, not so sure bout canes? 50/50 on whether they play angry or demoralized? If app st comes out and punches them in the mouth I have a feeling the wheels might fall off! App st certainly the kind of team who could do just that!
 

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