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ML Dogs Week 1

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Week ? 8/28, not week 1, but one has to pause at UTEP -9.5 even though they were improved at times last year, isn't NMSt home dog ML worth just a look? Will be first game for them since 2019, so there is that and I think they are IAA now? Not sure.

Granted, I have yet to look at anything really and am going off of the fumes of last season and what I think I remember.

I want think I might see more to mention, but I am really not in position to do so at the moment - wow is this thread early! What about San Jose St though, I could like that, big odds. UCLA home vs LSU is intriguing, I'm not certain LSU should be favored here honestly, would they actually be DD fav at home vs UCLA?

Nevada beating Cal wouldn't surprise.
 

twinkie13

Principal at Newman
Week ? 8/28, not week 1, but one has to pause at UTEP -9.5 even though they were improved at times last year, isn't NMSt home dog ML worth just a look? Will be first game for them since 2019, so there is that and I think they are IAA now? Not sure.

Granted, I have yet to look at anything really and am going off of the fumes of last season and what I think I remember.

I want think I might see more to mention, but I am really not in position to do so at the moment - wow is this thread early! What about San Jose St though, I could like that, big odds. UCLA home vs LSU is intriguing, I'm not certain LSU should be favored here honestly, would they actually be DD fav at home vs UCLA?

Nevada beating Cal wouldn't surprise.
Damn I have missed you. Can’t fucking wait
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Damn I have missed you. Can’t fucking wait
Definitely fun to talk games and plays! I had to offer something when I saw the thread title pop up. It's pretty premature for me to do so, I'm just not ready. I'm sure others are further ahead in their prep.

After I posted I did give a glance at UTEP and NMSt to see if it made sense. Lots of names I remember on UTEP...NMSt is pretty much an unknown - not IAA as I questioned. Played two games vs lower division teams this spring, no real games since 2019. Don't think there was a single name I remember on that team.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I haven't really gotten into any of my SDQL yet but one trend that uncovered a couple of gems the last couple of years was favorites that had a losing record the previous season.

Last year was a wash of course but two years ago it picked Nevada over Purdue and Central Ark over W. Ky....3 years ago it had NC A&T over ECU and Nicholls St. over Kansas as some examples....

It's not active yet but I was just wondering if anyone knows or sees any favs that had a losing record last year?

Here's the link:

 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I haven't really gotten into any of my SDQL yet but one trend that uncovered a couple of gems the last couple of years was favorites that had a losing record the previous season.

Last year was a wash of course but two years ago it picked Nevada over Purdue and Central Ark over W. Ky....3 years ago it had NC A&T over ECU and Nicholls St. over Kansas as some examples....

It's not active yet but I was just wondering if anyone knows or sees any favs that had a losing record last year?

Here's the link:

1. Nebraska was 3-5 last season and are -9.5 road favs.
2. Fresno St. was 3-3 and are -27.5 favs.
3. UCLA was 3-4 and are -14 favs.
4. UTEP was 3-5 and are -9 road favs.
5. Rutgers was 3-6 and are -13 favs.
6. Tenn. was 3-7 and are -30 favs. (vs. Bowling Green ;))
7. Mich. was 2-4 and are -16 favs.
8. Kentucky was 5-6 and are -28.5 favs....our defense this season should be one of our best ever though. We also have a good RB and OLine returning.
9. Wisky was 3-3 last season and -4 favs.
10. Arkansas was 3-7 last season and are -21 favs.
11. WVU was 5-4 last season and are -4 road favs...I know 5-4 is not a losing record...put them on the list because of the MD QB. He seemed to lead a lot of upsets last season for MD, correct?
12. Mizzou 5-5 and -11
13. Miss. St. 3-7 and -27.5
14. Purdue 2-4 and -7
15. TTech 4-6 and -4 roadies
16. Baylor 2-7 and -12 roadies to in-state little brother
17. Illini 2-6 and -6 at home week after playing the Huskers.
18. GTech 3-7 and -15.5 at home
19. SMiss 3-7 and -1.5 roadies
20. LSU 5-5 and -5 roadies
21. Cal 1-3 and -3.5 favs
22. Wazzou 1-3 and -15 favs

Turns out, due to no non-conference schedule last season, lots of favs in the 1st couple weeks with losing records the previous season. That was a quick first pass through SBRodds so if please list it if you see a team missing.

:popcorn:
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Bought Phil Steele's Preview and was reading up on some games this am....long story short, I am very interested in Hawaii and Charlotte...and possibly Va. Tech so far.

:popcorn:

Edit: Adding Texas State.
 
Last edited:

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Louisiana has 20 starters back from a team that won at Iowa St. last year....Phil Steele is predicting they win their conference title....Sarkisian has a lot of hype coming in at Texas but breaking in a new QB....what say you?

:popcorn:
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
San Jose St. has 19 returning starters and #2 rated OLine and #1 rated DLine in the MW according to PS. He is picking them to repeat as MW Champs. PS also had nice things to say about USC however Clay Helton is 0-4 ATS in game < week 2.

:popcorn:
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Edit: Adding Texas State.

Texas St was one of the rare teams last year with a losing SU ATS record but a winning ATS record. They did have some good moments (played BC very tough). Think I read they signed no HS kids in recruiting? All Juco and transfers? Haydel is a big loss for them, they do however have some pieces. QB play was wildly inconsistent and at times reckless (McBride). Baylor could be vulnerable, my fear is that Baylor runs for 300 and TexSt has -3 TO margin.

I ML'd Charlotte vs Duke last year, didn't go too well, but 2021 is a new year, Duke on major downward trajectory- can ole Cutcliffe right the ship or has his ship sailed?

Want to hear a crazy one? Minnesota! 86.6% of their yards are back (28th), 94% of their tkls are back (10th) and 181 OL starts return (2nd). PS calls the OL 11th best nationally! Gophers had some rough spots last year...did win 11 games in 2019. Minny might just be ok offensively vs OSU, matching up vs Wilson and Olave will be a challenge. OSU has plenty of questions and new faces. Kind of a stretch but might be a fun one!
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
Texas St was one of the rare teams last year with a losing SU ATS record but a winning ATS record. They did have some good moments (played BC very tough). Think I read they signed no HS kids in recruiting? All Juco and transfers? Haydel is a big loss for them, they do however have some pieces. QB play was wildly inconsistent and at times reckless (McBride). Baylor could be vulnerable, my fear is that Baylor runs for 300 and TexSt has -3 TO margin.

I ML'd Charlotte vs Duke last year, didn't go too well, but 2021 is a new year, Duke on major downward trajectory- can ole Cutcliffe right the ship or has his ship sailed?

Want to hear a crazy one? Minnesota! 86.6% of their yards are back (28th), 94% of their tkls are back (10th) and 181 OL starts return (2nd). PS calls the OL 11th best nationally! Gophers had some rough spots last year...did win 11 games in 2019. Minny might just be ok offensively vs OSU, matching up vs Wilson and Olave will be a challenge. OSU has plenty of questions and new faces. Kind of a stretch but might be a fun one!
"The last time OSU had zero career passing attempts at QB was 1952."

an_speechless
 

twinkie13

Principal at Newman
Louisiana has 20 starters back from a team that won at Iowa St. last year....Phil Steele is predicting they win their conference title....Sarkisian has a lot of hype coming in at Texas but breaking in a new QB....what say you?

:popcorn:
They are expected to do well in CajunLand
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
Ah, it's on the horizon. And a real season, none of this Covid-impacted shit.

I'm damn excited about Sarkisian, especially with the icing on the cake in Beard. But, yeah, LaLa will be a live dog on that first weekend.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I know we haven't liked what has been going on and off the field in East Lansing the past few years, still, I'm wondering how much better Northwestern will be week 1 compared to MSU (NW-6 at home).

QB should be ok, but if it is Hillinski it will be his first ever game for NW with this coaching staff and not only will the receivers he is throwing to be new to him, they will be new starters for NW. NW's top 4 receivers are gone from last year. If it is Johnson, he should be good but we saw him in 2019 and he definitely was not good here.

It's not like NW's running game was all that great last year. They ran for 325 vs Maryland and 411 vs Illinois...in their other 7 games they ran for just 104 ypg. I think the OL will be good enough although their career starts returning is just 42. 112th nationally.

DL does look talented and deep...but what about losing 3year elite LBs Fisher and Gallagher? Plus DC Hankwitz retired). Their Def Rush ypc was 4.5, pretty high and they only got 14 sacks, that averages out to 1.5 per game, pretty low.

NW won 3 of their games by one score or less last year and in some of those wins they were badly outgained (Nebraska outgained them by 125y, Wisconsin who NW beat by 10, UW outgained NW by 103y).

It wasn't much of a surprise that MSU was a mess last year given the personnel situation and Dantonio and how late Tucker got hired.

Might it be possible MSU has better WRs, OL (146 career starts #4 nationally) and RBs? QB kinda an unknown for MSU as well, but I think maybe otherwise on O, MSU looks a little better in sports and equal in others.

Defense is a big concern for Sparty and definitely some unknowns and questions there.

State did beat NW last year and outgained them by 77 yards in the process.

Can't say this upset would surprise anyone would it?
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
I know we haven't liked what has been going on and off the field in East Lansing the past few years, still, I'm wondering how much better Northwestern will be week 1 compared to MSU (NW-6 at home).

QB should be ok, but if it is Hillinski it will be his first ever game for NW with this coaching staff and not only will the receivers he is throwing to be new to him, they will be new starters for NW. NW's top 4 receivers are gone from last year. If it is Johnson, he should be good but we saw him in 2019 and he definitely was not good here.

It's not like NW's running game was all that great last year. They ran for 325 vs Maryland and 411 vs Illinois...in their other 7 games they ran for just 104 ypg. I think the OL will be good enough although their career starts returning is just 42. 112th nationally.

DL does look talented and deep...but what about losing 3year elite LBs Fisher and Gallagher? Plus DC Hankwitz retired). Their Def Rush ypc was 4.5, pretty high and they only got 14 sacks, that averages out to 1.5 per game, pretty low.

NW won 3 of their games by one score or less last year and in some of those wins they were badly outgained (Nebraska outgained them by 125y, Wisconsin who NW beat by 10, UW outgained NW by 103y).

It wasn't much of a surprise that MSU was a mess last year given the personnel situation and Dantonio and how late Tucker got hired.

Might it be possible MSU has better WRs, OL (146 career starts #4 nationally) and RBs? QB kinda an unknown for MSU as well, but I think maybe otherwise on O, MSU looks a little better in sports and equal in others.

Defense is a big concern for Sparty and definitely some unknowns and questions there.

State did beat NW last year and outgained them by 77 yards in the process.

Can't say this upset would surprise anyone would it?
Ryan Field will be half Sparty fans, goes for 5-6 other big ten schools at northwestern for that matter
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I know we haven't liked what has been going on and off the field in East Lansing the past few years, still, I'm wondering how much better Northwestern will be week 1 compared to MSU (NW-6 at home).

QB should be ok, but if it is Hillinski it will be his first ever game for NW with this coaching staff and not only will the receivers he is throwing to be new to him, they will be new starters for NW. NW's top 4 receivers are gone from last year. If it is Johnson, he should be good but we saw him in 2019 and he definitely was not good here.

It's not like NW's running game was all that great last year. They ran for 325 vs Maryland and 411 vs Illinois...in their other 7 games they ran for just 104 ypg. I think the OL will be good enough although their career starts returning is just 42. 112th nationally.

DL does look talented and deep...but what about losing 3year elite LBs Fisher and Gallagher? Plus DC Hankwitz retired). Their Def Rush ypc was 4.5, pretty high and they only got 14 sacks, that averages out to 1.5 per game, pretty low.

NW won 3 of their games by one score or less last year and in some of those wins they were badly outgained (Nebraska outgained them by 125y, Wisconsin who NW beat by 10, UW outgained NW by 103y).

It wasn't much of a surprise that MSU was a mess last year given the personnel situation and Dantonio and how late Tucker got hired.

Might it be possible MSU has better WRs, OL (146 career starts #4 nationally) and RBs? QB kinda an unknown for MSU as well, but I think maybe otherwise on O, MSU looks a little better in sports and equal in others.

Defense is a big concern for Sparty and definitely some unknowns and questions there.

State did beat NW last year and outgained them by 77 yards in the process.

Can't say this upset would surprise anyone would it?
Sparty might have a record for transfer portal players in coming.

Wild retooling.

I believe Russo is the starter?
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I just glanced at some post spring reports and some positive reviews of Russo, I assume he will start. And MSU is expecting the ArkSt OL transfer who Texas and OU went after, Horst I think and that LB from Tennessee to have immediate impacts. 247 had 4 of their portal guy ranked in some category, very small select number of schools had as many as 4 players on the list.
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
I’m assuming goldy is gonna want to play bully ball with that O line and having a stud rb. Also assuming OSU is not the best matchup to do so but they did lose their LBs, right?
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Save your money and don't bet Gophers ML. They have a weak secondary and OSU will eat them alive with Olave/Wilson/Ojigba/Fleming etc etc etc. I could see Minny hanging around in the 1H but OSU will roll them SU.
This shouldn't be a contest at all.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Ryan Field will be half Sparty fans, goes for 5-6 other big ten schools at northwestern for that matter
It's a built in excuse for NW/Stanford/Vandy, their entire student bodies are made up of fans of other schools
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I’m assuming goldy is gonna want to play bully ball with that O line and having a stud rb. Also assuming OSU is not the best matchup to do so but they did lose their LBs, right?

OSU D strength I presume to be the DL.

I dream about upsets and teams like Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama, etc losing as DD favs, so that was just me thinking things I do. Could be a game though, or atleast for a little while...Minnesota should offer them a better game in my opinion than Oregon the following week.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Purdue has lost a good bit as favorites...2020 1-3 SU as fav (0-4 ATS), 2019 1-2 SU as fav (1-2 ATS), 2018 4-4 SU as fav (3-5 ATS).

Purdue has also played many one score games recently, last year 5 of their 6 games were a one score margin, on average all 6 decided by an average 6.3 pts. In 2019 6 of their 12 games were decided by one score.

Oregon State often finds themselves in tight games as well. 5 of their 7 games last year were a one score margin, on average all 7 decided by an average 6.4 pts. 2019 they had several games where they scored in the 40s or allowed in the 50s which would skew their average margin for that year.

Normally I am situationally bullish on Smith's Oregon State teams although this season I am more uncertain about what them this year.
 

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
will be interesting to see if the dogs bark this year - my thinking is they will.

Really liking the mac this year. ...Western, san jose, illinois, stand out the most as dogs. not seeing gt as a big fav either, add oregon state to the list
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
After going through the week 1 matchups I feel like any of these dogs can win straight up week one. I’ll definitely have 5-6 of these teams in a round robin ML dog parlay.

ECU
Va Tech
Louisiana
San Jose St
Indiana
Penn St
Georgia
Mich St
UCLA
Central Mich
Looks good and might want to also consider Charlotte as I wouldn’t be shocked if they won either.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I had to see what PS said of these two teams after M.W. graced us with his presence....

Rice Offense: "This year 9 starters are back, plus they get WR Rozner (2nd Team CUSA '19) back and they will easily have their best offense in the past 5 years."
Rice Defense: "This year they lose Aldredge but have 10 starters back and remain one of the top units in CUSA."

Ark Offense: "Look for more QB runs this year and they have 9 returning starters on offense including 2nd Tm SEC WR Treylon Burks but they also break in a new QB."
Ark Defense: "They have 10 starters back and my computer is calling for their best ppg allowed in 6 years at 29.8."

29.8ppg on defense?? And that's supposed to be their best in 6 years and with 10 starters coming back? I know they play in the SEC West and all but if they average 29.8ppg allowed then a line of 20 seems an awful lot to cover to me considering they are breaking in a new QB..... @M.W. might be on to something here and has certainly peaked my interest.

:popcorn: :shake:
 

M.W.

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the kind words!!

A big part of it is that Texas is on deck for Arkansas, but Rice (like Arkansas) definitely took several steps in the right direction last year.
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
Different for NW..

MSU, UM and OSU have huge alumni bases in Chicago.
In my 5 years living here, I've been to 1 game at Ryan Field and it was awful. Went for work to a homecoming tailgate 2 years ago to show someone's family around and ended up with free tickets. Being as my stadium experience is all SEC or NFL, it was a big culture shock. But yeah - wayyyyyyy too many Michigan and Ohio State alumni bars up here. Usually right down the street from each other too. Thankfully there's a good SEC niche here.
 

Marsski

MAC Marvel
In my 5 years living here, I've been to 1 game at Ryan Field and it was awful. Went for work to a homecoming tailgate 2 years ago to show someone's family around and ended up with free tickets. Being as my stadium experience is all SEC or NFL, it was a big culture shock. But yeah - wayyyyyyy too many Michigan and Ohio State alumni bars up here. Usually right down the street from each other too. Thankfully there's a good SEC niche here.
In my 5 years living here, I've been to 1 game at Ryan Field and it was awful. Went for work to a homecoming tailgate 2 years ago to show someone's family around and ended up with free tickets. Being as my stadium experience is all SEC or NFL, it was a big culture shock. But yeah - wayyyyyyy too many Michigan and Ohio State alumni bars up here. Usually right down the street from each other too. Thankfully there's a good SEC niche here.
Come see a real Big10 team play in CBUS and you’ll feel right at home.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I think those dastardly Cards from Loserville might deserve a closer look/discussion. Here's a few snippets of what PS says about them and Miss.

Cards O: "They have a veteran OLine and Satterfield's Offense always puts up big plays but they figure to take a step back in 2021."
Cards D: "This year 6 starters are back but lose 5 out of 7 of their top tacklers so they may take a step back."

PS says they will take a step back on both O & D but he also goes on to say for 2021: "they are poised to rebound and 5 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for them to get back to a bowl this year."

Miss O: "This year 8 starters are back but they do lose their top 2 receivers, but they will remain among the nation's best."
Miss D: "allowed 519 ypg and 38.3 ppg. This year 9 starters are back after their top tackler transferred to Kentucky. They will be much tougher in 2021."

Louisville gave up an average of 26ppg last year on defense....that's a 13ppg gap! How much can Miss close this gap?

I also found these trends that support a play on the Cards....

Lane Kiffin is 1-3 ATS on rest of more than 14 days....he is also 3-12-1 ATS in weeks 2 or less. That is easily THE worst trend I can remember seeing out of LK.
Scott Satterfield is 4-0 ATS on rest of greater than 14 days....he is also 9-4 ATS in weeks 2 or less.

:popcorn:
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I forgot who it was but someone in here picked Citadel over Georgia Tech a couple years ago....was that you @M.W. ? If not, who was it? Anyone remember?

:popcorn:
 

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