Basically you look at Win Pct as that is the projected chance to win today without regard to the line, while the "EV" is the expected value considering the actual line. Darker green has the higher value. I don't always follow their recommendations, but it's just another tool I look at. Also once the lineups are in, these numbers may change depending on how many regulars are out of the lineup...but that generally happens 2-5 hours before game time. Hope that answers your question, all these charts I post at times are very similar, even though some are on totals or run lines. I have found decent success playing their team total projections as well.
Reds FF RL ...Not a huge fan of the juice on this one but Castillo imo will be worth it. He has really figured it out in the last two months and I don't think the red birds will do much of anything against him. On the other side of the coin Woodford is a below average pitcher and the Reds should handle him pretty easily.
Tigs FF ML ... Tigers have been playing some great baseball as of late. Mize is going to be limited in this one to probably 4 innings or around 60 pitches, which does give me some pause. But he has been solid in his last few outings, I think he can blank this bad royals offense. Carlos Hernández is gettable for the Tigers and I think their offense will bounce back tonight.
Tigs FF RL +115 ...Similar situation as yesterday. Skubal might be on a limited pitch count, but he CAN blank the Royos as long as he's in. Not a lot of info on Lynch but his 8 MLB inn so far have not been impressive and his minor league numbers are pretty meh. Tigers should definitely score in this one and carry the game as well.
TIGERS +½ 109 ...These teams are on different trajectory’s as of late, and while many expected the tigs far below .500, many wouldn’t have expected it from the twinks. I have a few angles why I like this pick. First, the twins are in full sell mode, they’ve traded Nelson Cruz, will listen to offers for Kepler and Polanco, and will be more than willing to salvage value from today's starter Michael Pineda. The unknown circumstances surrounding the ball club may cause a lack of focus as the twins limp into the dog days of summer. As much as I'm feeling the Minny struggles, I also have to give credit to Detroit. AJ Hinch has been a great hire and looks to be turning this ball club around for real. Matt Manning has been up and down but has the tools to put together good starts. Outside of one absolute stinker, he’s been okay, and will hopefully be able to handle a Minnesota lineup that finds itself with less firepower than on opening day. The tigs offense will hope to take advantage of windy conditions and their hot bats, as they can lift a couple balls out into the wind and push some runs across early. With these starters, the under at a stout 10½ is also worth a look.
ANGELS -1½ +130...The Rox road record alone should be enough reason to take this (10-36), but Ohtani should outpitch Marquez 9/10 times, plus Angels hitting should easily outscore the much weaker Rockies. Another solid bet may be under 8 runs with two good pitchers and the Rockies' really poor offensive production away.
The Rays are a dominant home team so putting up runs shouldn’t be an issue. There numbers in July have been the best of the season.(AVG, SLG, OBP) On the other side the Yankees haven’t been playing well, but they play much better on the road. (.243 vs .228) On top of that they hit lefties quite well. (.253 vs .227) I see runs being put up in this game and like the value at -110.
Detroit ML / F5 ...Reason: Another day, another chance to bet against JA Happ. In his last 2 starts against DET (July 8 and July 18), he has given up 10 runs in 14 innings. The better start was on 7/8 pitching at home where he went 7 IP and gave up 3 runs. However, the potential for him to blow up at any time is always there as evidenced by his over 6 ERA on the season. In 4 July starts, it is over 7. Wily Peralta has also pitched two games recently against MIN (July 11 and July 18). He went 12 innings and gave up only 1 run. And that was when Nelson Cruz was still with the Twins. Gimme the Tigs all day at plus money F5 and ML
St Louis ...Was strongly considering the tribe, but with SL starting Kim it will be hard to fade them. Kim has been excellent and coming off a 24-inning scoreless streak. Plesac has not lived up to the hype this year. I'm not big on SL offense or I may even back St Loo as a dog. Looking at the numbers, only 50.55% of bets are on SL, but over 89% of the money back SL..this usually eludes to a lot of pros on the cards but I will monitor is closer to first pitch before making a call...or not
White Sox F5 -½ -140 ...Rodon had his first bad start in what seems like forever. Liking him to bounce back against a bad Royals offense today. Hernandez has been someone who I have faded often. The Sox should be able to plate a few.
Brewers F5 -½ -130 ...Same trend as yesterday the Pirates have more or less given up on this season. Peralta will be limited in this one but I don't think he'll have much of a problem with the Pirates. Kuhl has been an okay arm for the Pirates, but the Brewers should be good enough to squeeze out a few runs.
Reds F5 -½ -105 ...Really like this spot at plus money. Castillo has been one the best pitchers in baseball since June. Mills has had a few good starts vs bad offenses, but nothing I worry too much about. Votto has been out of this world in the past few weeks. Hopefully he is in the lineup today. Even if he isn't at these odds I'll bite.
Tigers F5 -½ -120 ...Tigers have been destroying soft tossing lefties all year. See yesterday with Happ. Wells may only pitch a few innings in this one as an opener or just cause he gets shelled. Mize with be on a pitch count, but was allowed to work into the 5th in his last start. Mize should be able to keep the Tigers ahead while he's in the game.